FTSE 100 Is starting a brutal 2026 Bear Cycle.Last time we looked at FTSE 100 (UK100) was 3 months ago (September 19, see chart below) where we gave a strong buy signal at the bottom of its 7-month Channel Up, which methodically hit our 9700 Target:
This time we are switching to the longest time-frame possible, the monthly (1M) as a key development has taken place. We switch our long-term stance to bearish as the index almost hit last month the top of its 16-year Channel Up, which started at the bottom of the 2008 U.S. Housing Crisis, and closed a very volatile November candle flat.
The use of the Sine Waves make the picture even clearer as they point out almost exactly every major Cycle Top since the 2008 Housing Crisis (5 such Cycle including that). And we are on one of them.
At the same time, the index also hit the top of the 5-year Channel Up that started shortly after the COVID crash bottom. Every correction (Bear Cycle/ Bearish Leg) within this pattern hit the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) and rebounded. With the exception of the COVID flash crash which even broke below its 1M MA200 (orange trend-line), every other Bear Cycle since June 2012, hit the 1M MA100 (green trend-line) and rebounded.
As a result, we are expecting 2026 to be a strong Bear Cycle for FTSE, hitting at least its 1M MA50 at 8400, which is the bottom of the COVID Channel Up as well as the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level of the post 2008 Channel Up.
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