BTC is ready for a BIG MOVE in the next monthThere are eery similarities to the 2018 bear market with BTC having gone quiet for 129 days, since this year's low on the 16th June.
In 2018, we had a period of 143 days from the local low on the 24th June, to the capitulation triggered on the 14th Nov. A further move down of -46% was the result.
However, history rhymes but doesn't usually repeat. So could we in fact be in the accumulation phase, similar to 2018 directly after the capitulation?
Have a look at the 108 day period from the 2018 low on 15th Dec to the breakout on the 2nd Apr 2019, where there was a period of relative inactivity, just like the one we're going through now.
When we look purely at like for like similarities, the capitulation scenario seems more likely. But that seems all too easy to anticipate. With the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both finding potential macro lows in the last two weeks, perhaps we are coming to the end of the accumulation phase, and about to make a big move up?
Either way, I'm going to be ready for both scenarios!
BLX trade ideas
BTCUSD: Bitcoin Prepares for New All-Time High Near $99.4KBy or during Spring 2024, Bitcoin should be near its next destination within the expected price itinerary ($99.4K). After taking a Beary Bad beatdown over the past 8 months, the gloomy sentiment of further capitulation has settled within the minds of many retail traders. Making the timing ripe for the market to feast.
According to the waves we've witnessed from June until now, I on the other hand think that Bitcoin has instead taken all the abuse it will allow from the Bears, for now.
With a 73% reduction in value from its current all-time high at $70K, price action has seemingly formed a vey sharp zig-zag wave downward. Based on my personal wave count from Bitcoin's very first all-time low candle, I think the macro pattern spells out a pending pump for the Digital King.
Forming what I believe to be a Leading Diagonal from June's bottom price at $17.6K and ultimately pushing up to the range of $25K, the Digital Surf Gang and I were totally expecting a deep dive back to the range of $18-$20K for a major test and a likely level of discovered macro support. If I had to be more specific on the expected support level, I'd guess that it comes near $20.1K, in a matter of hours from now. With an apparent Leading Diagonal in Wave 1 (of a hypothetical Wave A), I expect Wave 3 of said Wave A to become extended in form. This extension would likely get Bitcoin back above $40K by October of this year (2022).
Looking beyond the nearest term pump, I believe that Bitcoin will reach the $99.4K mark by Spring of 2024 . As you can see on my chart, though I'm confident that a new all-time high comes, it'll likely only be a big trap as the ascending move would be due to come in corrective form, instead of impulsive. Not too long from now, many traders and investors will better understand why it is better to 🏄 than to #hodl (if they haven't already).
BTC 3-montly chart - what does it look like?12 years after the origin of BTC
12 years of massive gains
Never far below the 200 weekly ma
Will this ever end in a correction?
What we know:
-BTC makes nice elliot wave patterns 1-2-3-4-5
-BTC makes elliot wave correctional paterns ABC
-BTC retraces after a 12345 to 61% of leg 4-5
This has happened all 3 normal bull runs with tops 2011-2014-2017
And the composition of these 3 bull runs makes 1 big 12345 wave pattern.
And this pattern has not yet been to the 61% of leg 4-5, instead we got a higher push to 60K, what makes it a elliot irregular flat pattern.
Now the question is will we go to 61% of leg 4-5, which is around 1K.
In my opinion this is possible,
-The crypto hype might be a bit over for some time, every plumber, painter and carpenter has bought in in the mean time.
-The economy and inflation could drive people to sell
-We are still mostly using the banks.
-There's RSI divergence on the 3 montly chart
-There's a sell on the market god indicator, the first one ever.
-The 200 weekly ma and 50 montly ma supports are getting weaker and weaker
The road to 1 K will not be a straight line, we will bump on the +/- 20K and later on on the trendline from 20K-14K top.
But I think that's inevitable that the market has to cool down a bit, with this all in mind.
Cycles of BitcoinIn weekly time units and in logarithmic scale, we can see that the cycles of Bitcoin have been based on technical support since 2010. This support gave way only once during the panic of the world stock exchanges in March 2020, due to the Covid 19 pandemic. This representation shows that Bitcoin is probably on the low of the current cycle (end of cycle) and that it will never return below $17,500, except in the event of a new global crisis which could cause the price to fall below its historical support.
The same analysis done in February 2019:
My analysis on the end of the current bear market:
...GOOD ADVICE = FREE......AND COULD SAVE LOT'S OF MONEYHello friends, no long stories, I have this chart for some time and would like to share it today, because otherwise it will take maybe even more time, to get back to 1K.
All the moon boys should sell their coins.
NO BITS, NO BUTS just SELL. I have more things to do.
#BTC Critical Trend Tomorrow (October 13.2022) Inflation rate will be published and if inflation rate less then expectation, we can see a pump on bitcoin. Furthermore, decrease at inflation will cause less interest.So, 30k we can talk in this situation.
But if inflation rate will be more then expectations GG
Reality Check GG Bitcoin I had my fun, stop being delusional, and come back to reality. on all large timeframe, BTC looks bearish and BTC already had a good run from 3.3k all the way to 64k sorry if you missed out. Also, I don't care if the instantiations are in, those are going to be the same guys who dump on you and make you all bagholders. Play it smart and don't FOMO at the top. Here is some advice if everyone thinks something is going to happen in reality it does not happen, don't end up as a statistic. I will look for a rebuy only at 42k if the bulls are willing to step in, besides that I wish you all the best of luck and I will keep you all updated. :)
BTC - Wen The Next Floor Sweep?So I decided to draw my favorite tool (Fib Retracement Tool) seriously this shit ain't even funny! Wuts not funny about this if my wave count is correct which I know is but could be wrong is that the Fib 0.32 will always be touched in a correction after wave 5! Deal with it.
Next Stop $25K BitcoinWARNING!!!!
Chart may induce seizures
I have some serious chart shame about this one but IDC my point is still valid (I moved my magic bold white line )
I think I'm calling it, Bitcoin bear over. as soon as the weekly moving averages started trending up @ the yellow arrows, despite all of what's going on in the world I turned bullish. I'm scared.
Feelings check:
-70%/30% lows are in. (in bitcoin)
-50/50 we retest lows again similar to 2015 (even if spx makes new lows Bitcoin will hold the door)
One more US rate hike to come
30% chance we see a 2000/ 2008 type bear market. I will be selling 25K no matter what
80% chance we don't see Oversold US Oil as an indication of market bottom like other bear markets due to huge supply issues (Even though the demand destruction is huge) this will likely lead to higher inflation for longer and the FED will be forced to admit defeat with the interest rate hikes because of the_________ breaking.
Buy bitcoin Nov13 2022 to Jan 13 2023...Or right now...And update to one of my previous bitcoin cycle charts.
I KNOW ITS VERY BUSY, I HAVE ADHD! (and my charts are for me anyways.. i know what i mean)
Over simplification:
Bitcoin bottoms Mid Jan 13 2015, Mid Dec 2018, so now it must bottom Mid Nov 2022
Bitcoin still only down 70%ish needs to go down >80%ish
All this correlates with my magic thick white trendline of the BTCUSD bottoms during bear market, seems to always break down under that trend line indication VERY oversold (capitulation)
You(ie: me ) wanted an easy button, here it is!
Over simplified Bull Case:
My Dashed green and blue Fib lines from last cycle = Buy (doesn't work for 2015 cycle at all...)
Miner capitulation ( hashrate MA cross) = buy
Bitcoin didn't go up as much as previous cycles so it wont go down as much
BTC - one more thing !Project last two corrections onto what we have today - and both of them end up on the $9k area - where the main supporting curve is, where the CME gap is and where the Binance US wick hit last year.
A lot of confluence there, based on history.
Bearish until then - even bounces won't change that.
BTC - a bit of retrospectionEvery correction (widely known as "bear market") of a parabolic BTC move ended up in a touch of the supporting curve - which is also flattening and bigger parabolic moves can now have bigger retracement periods. All of previous corrections (which happened during an on-going multimarket bubble growht!) have something in common - a support that finally got breached - since that moment - the price entered a consolidation period - for about 100 to max 300 days. A situation that hasn't occurred before was the covid crash, which looks like an excuse to form a bottom by touching that curve.
This time we are far away from it - setting some kind of resistance on $18k area, but I have no doubt it will get breached - the only question is if we will go higher and then dump in a Covid 2020 way, or will we gradually bleed out until reaching the bottom - my personal bottomest bottom sits at $8-9k.