QuantSignals V3 | Capture Weekly MomentumMP QuantSignals V3 – Weekly CALL Trade (2025-11-19)
Trade Signal:
Direction: BUY CALLS
Strike Price: $63.00
Entry Range: $2.00–$2.10
Target 1: $3.00 (50% gain)
Target 2: $4.00 (100% gain)
Stop Loss: $1.20 (40% risk)
Expiry: 2025-11-21 (2 days)
Position Size: 2% of portfolio
Confidence: 70% (Medium)
Market Analysis:
Trend: Bullish weekly momentum (+3.28%), 2-week uptrend (+5.32%)
Price Action: Current $63.00, near resistance at $66.20, VWAP support $59.65
Technicals: EMA bullish, MACD slightly bearish, mixed momentum signals
Options Flow: Extremely bullish (PCR 0.19), heavy institutional call buying
News Sentiment: Neutral, broader market sentiment focus, MP sector stable
Competitive Edge:
High-probability weekly play supported by bullish momentum and institutional call flow
Near-the-money $63 strike balances risk/reward
Mid-week entry captures continuation of weekly bullish trend
Tight stop loss mitigates risk from Katy AI bearish conflict
Risk Notes:
Katy AI shows bearish prediction (-9.42% over next week) – requires cautious monitoring
2-day expiry creates gamma risk
Mixed technical signals – monitor closely, consider taking partial profits at Target 1
Strategy Rationale:
Overrides Katy AI bearish prediction due to overwhelming bullish evidence: strong momentum, institutional call buying, and technical breakout above VWAP
Tight stop and position sizing protect against potential downside
Trade ideas
MPYou all have spoken and stated that you wanted to replace Apple with MP. If you didn't vote, I do apologize, but I gave everyone an equal opportunity to make your voices heard. From this point forward, I will be making weekly posts covering MP on Wednesday nights.
That being said, I have provided an updated long-term outlook regarding MP on this post as well as my hourly live chart. VERY long term, I see this ticker reaching the high $200's to mid $300's before its cycle wave I is completed. I say very long term because it could be 1-3 years before that goal is achieved. Technically speaking, it could take even longer than that as I have no way of predicting time duration. As for the more immediate target though, I see this thing hitting $123 - $189 ideally within the first few months of next year. Again, I cannot predict time duration, but I can use historical price action to get an educated idea.
Looking at the structure [price has carved out, I believe we're now within intermediate wave (5) of primary wave ((3)). Should this be correct, we would be carving out a 5-wave move higher to the next target box. Rather we have completed minor wave 1 or not remains to be see. I have placed a 1? label on the chart showing that I am tracking a potential wave 1 top. If not, then we would make another slight high before embarking on wave 2. My only qualm with this is that it has been less than a week since our last local bottom. That isn't very much time for a minor wave 1. If white is correct, and we have completed wave 1, then we would be moving toward the low 50's for wave 2.
The ALT count that I am tracking suggests that intermediate wave (4) has yet to complete and we're just now within minor wave B. The primary reason behind this count is that what I am calling wave (4) was short in duration and not very defined. However, price did hit the 0.382 retracement fib of wave (3) & bottomed on pos div. Ultimately, we just need more supporting data to make a decision one way or the other.
I was calling for price to hit the 0.786 @ $41.80 a while back if y'all recall. I bought 25 shares @ $48 in an effort to build into a position. However, price hit $47 and then took off higher. Hence the two possible counts I am tracking. If you have any questions on my long-term analysis or more immediate analysis, please let me know. Otherwise, I will update y'all again next Wednesday.
MP Materials bullishSeems like it could lose another 5%, but I don't think it'll get worse than that. Right now, focus should be on earnings day; 6th november. I think the stock will be bullish after earnings day, but until then, stay calm. The retracement was definetely necessary after gaining 30+% in 2-3 days.
I sold my whole position at 96,15 USD, so now I'm waiting for it to get near the 75 USD, so I can join the next bull run on MP. Fibonacci time zone also indicates that the next significant move from the stock will happen around november. Give me your thoughts!
MP Material bullishSeems like it could lose another 5%, but I don't think it'll get worse than that. Right now, focus should be on earnings day; 6th november. I think the stock will be bullish after earnings day, but until then, stay calm. The retracement was necessary.
I sold my whole position at 96,15, so now I'm waiting for it to get near the 75 USD, so I can join the next bull run on MP. Give me your thoughts!
$MP — Macro + Technical Cumulative Outlook⚡ NYSE:MP — Macro + Technical Cumulative Outlook
Rare earths are heating up again. NYSE:MP is positioned at the center of U.S. efforts to de-risk China’s dominance in critical minerals, giving it a strong policy-driven tailwind.
🧩 Technical Structure
Clean breakout from long-term accumulation base.
Rejection at 1.236 Fib (~97.5) led to a healthy pullback into 85–88 demand zone.
RSI broke the downtrend MA, confirming bullish momentum still intact.
Volume expansion supports a controlled retracement before a potential second leg.
🧠 VolanX DSS Outlook
Scenario Probability Bias
Rebound from 85–88 → next leg to 121 60% 🟢 Bullish
Range-bound 84–90 (reaccumulation) 25% ⚖️ Neutral
Breakdown to 75 (failed structure) 15% 🔴 Bearish
🌍 Macro & Catalyst Highlights
China’s export restrictions on rare earths continue to support U.S. domestic players.
DoD partnership with MP Materials adds strategic legitimacy and capital inflow.
Texas magnet facility ramp expected late-2025 → key proof for vertical integration.
NdPr price volatility remains a double-edged sword; upside if supply tightens.
🏁 My Take
Momentum remains bullish but extended. Watching 91 reclaim as a signal for continuation; failure to hold 83–85 would shift bias to neutral short-term.
Target zones: 121.6 → 146.9 → 156.3 (Fib extensions).
💡 “Patience before precision — let liquidity guide direction.”
#WaverVanir #VolanX #AITrading #RareEarth #MP #MarketIntelligence
MP LongMost stocks are attempting quick rebounds today, but I don’t trust these yet.
The next few days will tell us whether buyers truly step in.
Still, one setup worth watching:
NYSE:MP - Swing trade
✅ Buyable Gap Up — breaking above resistance with volume
✅ Tight Cup & Handle — a strong consolidation pattern
✅ High RS (Relative Strength) — outperforming most of the market
⚠️ Base 2 Breakout — often better suited for swing trades, not long-term holds
MP LONGGREAT STREGTH WHILE MARKET WAS RED TODAY..
China restricts rare-earth exports → U.S. turns to domestic producers → MP benefits.
China’s Oct 9 export controls affect items containing Chinese rare earths, tightening global supply.
MP’s Mountain Pass mine is the only large-scale U.S. rare-earth source.
U.S. DoD and DOE co-funding MP’s Texas magnet facility.
Spot prices for NdPr expected to rise due to supply fears.
Shares rallied 130% this week; strong investor momentum.
Key Risks:
Partial dependence on China for final magnet production until Texas facility ramps.
Rare-earth prices are cyclical; can drop if controls relax or demand dips.
Policy support could change with elections or geopolitical deals.
Texas Facility — Independence Plant:
Converts rare earth oxides into metals, alloys, and magnets.
Metal production started in 2024; trial magnet production underway in early 2025.
Initial magnet capacity ~1,000 metric tons/year; first automotive-grade deliveries expected by year-end 2025.
Positioned as core of U.S. domestic rare-earth-to-magnet supply chain.
DoD investment and Apple $500M commitment support ramp-up.
Second “10X” facility planned for 2028 to expand capacity.
Risks & Timing:
Magnet manufacturing is technically challenging; yield and quality issues possible.
Year-end 2025 target ambitious; delays possible.
Global competition and Chinese pricing remain a risk.
Bottom Line:
Texas facility is actively producing metal; magnet trials underway.
Next 6–12 months critical to prove commercial viability.
1H Chart Outlook on MP Materials Corp.On this 1H Chart outlook of NYSE:MP MP Materials, im still looking for the wave v in green to play out. but the outlook puts forward a couple of different paths. The orange zone holds and this marks the completion of wave (ii) in orange and price heads higher in wave (iii). Alternatively price could tag the 'Alternate Outlook Structural Level' at $61.41, before a potential reversal to make the wave V. We will soon find out which path it takes.
Recent position taken is shown on the chart.
MP materials has good momentum and solid financials- could pop !I have been bullish on MP for the last several weeks and IF price gets over resistance we could see another big move on the upside. If it fails to break resistance here, I think the fundamentals are so strong , I would buy after a major correction. It's American. Good Luck.
Daily Chart Outlook on MP Materials Corp.In this Daily chart outlook of NYSE:MP I'm looking for a continuation higher after breaking out of green wave iv. As the chart suggests I'm not ruling out a consolidation in red wave 2 assuming green wave v plays out. I don't hold a position but may take an initial position on any small pullback in the orange degree, but I would have one eye on increasing that position should the red wave 2 consolidation occur.
Mp materials - bullish continuation in MP Materials is looking at a strong potential upside after the stock breaks above the falling wedge and stayed supported above the major resistance turned support at US$60.46. Despite overbought signal in, the sell-off remain corrective, which is in a form of a small falling wedge. Hence, we are optimistic on MP materials. TArget is 123.6% at 93.02.
MP Technical Outlook – Symmetrical Triangle Consolidation⛏️ MP Technical Outlook – Symmetrical Triangle Consolidation
Ticker: MP (MP Materials Corp.)
Timeframe: 30-minute candles
🔍 Current Setup
MP has been consolidating after a steep sell-off earlier in the summer. Price action is now compressing into a symmetrical triangle — a neutral pattern that can break in either direction.
Triangle Resistance: ~37.40
Triangle Support: ~31.30
Current price: ~35.70, sitting near the apex of the triangle.
📊 Breakout Levels
🚀 Upside (Bullish Scenario)
Trigger: Break and close above 37.40.
Intermediate Targets:
39.00–40.00 → Supply zone.
42.00–43.00 → Next resistance cluster.
Measured Move Target: ~44.50 (triangle height projection).
🔻 Downside (Bearish Scenario)
Trigger: Break and close below 34.00, with confirmation under 31.30.
Intermediate Supports:
33.00 → Rising trendline zone.
31.30 → Major demand level.
Measured Move Target: ~29.00 (triangle height projection downward).
📈 Volume Analysis
Volume has declined during consolidation, which is normal for a triangle.
Expect a volume spike on breakout to confirm direction.
⚖️ Probability Bias
The preceding trend into the triangle was bullish (from ~$30 → ~$37), which slightly favors an upside continuation.
Still, failure to defend 34.00 / 31.30 would flip the outlook bearish, re-testing prior lows.
✅ Takeaway
MP is at a key inflection point inside a triangle pattern:
Bullish Break > 37.40: Targets 39 → 42 → 44.50
Bearish Break < 34.00 / 31.30: Targets 33 → 31.30 → 29
Traders should wait for volume-backed breakout confirmation before positioning.
MP Materials Inc Breaks Long-Term StructureMP has officially exited its multi-year descending channel, confirming a structural shift after forming a strong impulsive wave count. Price has now completed a 1–2 wave structure and is extending the 3rd wave with increased momentum. RSI currently prints at 79.87, indicating strength, yet a corrective wave (wave 4) may be due before the final thrust to wave 5 completes at $103.26.
A critical immediate support zone exists around the $44–$51 range, which aligns with potential wave 4 retracement. This zone will act as the decision point for continuation.
The final bullish projection targets $154.39, a potential macro resistance zone where profit-taking should be considered. Price action within this projected zone will determine the long-term trend continuation or reversal.
Plan: Accumulate on corrective dips into the defined support zones. Hold through wave 5 completion and monitor market reaction around the projected zone for directional confirmation.
MP Materials Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought MP before the previuos earnings:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of MP Materials prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 25usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-6-20,
for a premium of approximately $2.97.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Can Strategic Minerals Transform National Security?MP Materials has experienced a significant market revaluation, with its stock surging over 50% following a pivotal public-private partnership with the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD). This multi-billion-dollar agreement, which includes a $400 million equity investment, substantial additional funding, and a $150 million loan, aims to rapidly establish a robust, end-to-end U.S. rare earth magnet supply chain. This strategic collaboration is designed to curtail the nation's reliance on foreign sources for these critical materials, which are indispensable for advanced technology systems across both defense and commercial applications, from F-35 fighter jets to electric vehicles.
The partnership underscores a profound geopolitical imperative: countering China's near-monopoly over the global rare earth supply chain. China dominates rare earth mining, refining, and magnet production, a leverage it has demonstrably used through export restrictions amidst escalating trade tensions with the U.S. These actions highlighted acute U.S. vulnerabilities and the imperative for domestic independence, propelling the DoD's "mine to magnet" strategy aimed at achieving self-sufficiency by 2027. The DoD's substantial investment and its new position as MP Materials' largest shareholder signal a decisive shift in U.S. industrial policy, directly challenging China's influence and asserting economic sovereignty in a vital sector.
Central to the deal's financial attractiveness and long-term stability is a 10-year price floor of $110 per kilogram for key rare earths, significantly higher than historical averages. This guarantee not only ensures MP Materials' profitability, even against potential market manipulation, but also de-risks its ambitious expansion plans, including new magnet manufacturing facilities expected to produce 10,000 metric tons annually. This comprehensive financial and demand certainty transforms MP Materials from a commodity producer vulnerable to market whims into a strategic national asset, attracting further private investment and setting a powerful precedent for securing other critical mineral supply chains in the Western Hemisphere.
MP - MaterialsFinding stocks in a bull trend is always nice. Even better than a bullish trend is a pull back to the 100 day EMA and possibly the 200 day EMA at $20.14. The market maybe dropping hard but, not every stock is dropping. This one pulled back to provide a better entry for a possible new run. RSI is oversold at 39.14.






















