Bitcoin BTC price analysisCRYPTOCAP:BTC is struggling to move higher.
Walls of limit orders are everywhere — sellers vs buyers — and OKX:BTCUSDT is basically stuck.
That’s exactly how consolidation & distribution phases look like.
🖐️ Trading manually right now?
Honestly — not the best idea. At this stage, mistakes often outnumber profits.
🤖 Meanwhile, trading bots keep doing their job:
• predefined ranges
• zero emotions
• steady volatility harvesting
👀 Retail traders (us) should wait.
When the “big money” finishes its battle and fires an impulse candle — that’s when we join the stronger side.
📊 Fear & Greed Index is slowly recovering:
from 10–11 last week → ~25 today.
🔑 Key CRYPTOCAP:BTC levels:
▪️ Resistance: $103K
▪️ Support: $84K
⚠️ Below $77K — the road toward $50K opens wide.
🎄 With holidays ahead, activity will likely drop even more.
For now — we observe, not trade.
🤔 What do you expect next for #Bitcoin: breakout or another leg down?
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🧠 DYOR | This is not financial advice, just thinking out loud
Market insights
Bitcoin Tests Resistance - Downside Risk Toward $85,700Hello traders! Here’s my technical outlook on BTC/USD based on the current chart structure. After a prolonged bearish move inside a clearly defined descending channel, Bitcoin attempted a recovery and managed to break out of the channel. However, this upside move lacked strong follow-through. Price entered a consolidation range, where multiple reactions and fake breakouts signaled distribution rather than accumulation. This behavior suggested that sellers were still active at higher levels. Following the range, BTC formed a triangle structure, capped by a descending Triangle Resistance Line and supported by a rising Triangle Support Line. Price has been compressing within this structure, but recent attempts to push higher were rejected near the 88,500 Resistance Level (TP1), confirming strong selling pressure at this zone. Currently, BTC is trading near the upper boundary of the triangle, where sellers continue to defend resistance. As long as price remains below the Triangle Resistance Line and fails to reclaim 88,500, the bearish scenario remains in play. My scenario: I expect a rejection from the triangle resistance, followed by a move back toward the 85,700 Support Level, which aligns with both horizontal support and the lower triangle boundary. A clean breakdown below 85,700 would confirm bearish continuation and open the door for a deeper decline. Only a strong breakout and hold above 88,500 would invalidate this short setup. For now, the market favors sellers below resistance, with 88,500 as key resistance and 85,700 as the main downside target. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Elite | BTCUSD | Strong Range Accumulation After DistributionBITSTAMP:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSD
After rejecting from the HTF resistance zone, BTC aggressively sold off and is now stabilizing inside a defined parallel range. Price is holding above the lower demand area, suggesting sellers are losing momentum. This structure favors a liquidity grab and expansion move once the range is resolved.
Key Scenarios
✅ Bullish Case 🚀
A sustained hold above 84,800 – 85,300 with bullish 4H structure shift opens upside expansion toward range high and HTF resistance.
🎯 Target 1: 96,800
🎯 Target 2: 104,000 – 106,000
❌ Bearish Case 📉
A 4H close below 84,000 invalidates accumulation and signals continuation toward HTF demand below.
Current Levels to Watch
Resistance 🔴: 96,800 → 104,000
Support 🟢: 85,300 → 84,000
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice.
$btc is going to 50K. Pattern repeat from 2022. It will happen.Look back at 2022 starting from Jan 2022 all the way to Dec 2022. you will see a similar, identical, twin chart to current bitcoin chart. right now sitting on 100 MA weekly and it will hover around there till March 26 and then noise dive lower to 50k crossing 200 MA weekly support till end of 2026. Rebound for long upside would happen by start of 2027 eventually for all time high. Mark this post and thank me later.
How to Use VWAP in Confluence with StructureVWAP is one of the few indicators that consistently adds value when used correctly. It does not predict direction and it does not replace market structure, but it provides a powerful reference point for where fair value sits within the current session or trend.
When combined with structural analysis, VWAP helps you filter trades, improve timing, and avoid impulsive entries that fight the underlying flow.
The first step is understanding what VWAP represents. It shows the average price weighted by volume, reflecting where most transactions have occurred. When price trades above VWAP, it signals that buyers are in control of the session.
When price trades below it, sellers dominate. This context becomes meaningful only when it aligns with the higher timeframe structure.
Start by establishing your bias through market structure.
If the higher timeframe is in an uptrend and price trades within a discount zone, VWAP becomes a dynamic confirmation tool. A reclaim of VWAP after a liquidity sweep or after a break of structure is one of the cleanest signals that buyers are stepping back in.
The same applies in reverse for downtrends: a VWAP rejection after a pullback into premium strengthens the short bias.
VWAP also adds clarity during intraday consolidation. Ranges often form around VWAP because it reflects the session’s equilibrium. Breakouts that occur away from VWAP without pullbacks frequently lack durability.
However, a breakout followed by a retest of VWAP shows acceptance and builds confidence in continuation. This combination turns a common indicator into a reliable filter rather than a standalone signal.
Another effective use of VWAP is identifying exhaustion. When price aggressively pushes far above or below VWAP, it often signals that the move is extended. This does not mean you fade the trend, but it does mean you tighten expectations and wait for structure to align before entering. Once price reconnects with VWAP and shows intent, the next move becomes more sustainable.
VWAP becomes particularly powerful when paired with session logic. Trading above VWAP in a bullish higher timeframe environment during London or New York sessions often leads to cleaner impulses.
Trading against VWAP during low-volume hours produces far more false signals. Timing, structure, and VWAP together create a cohesive framework.
Used in confluence, not in isolation, VWAP supports disciplined decision-making.
It aligns entries with momentum, filters low-quality setups, and clarifies whether the market accepts or rejects a level. When you combine VWAP with structure, liquidity, and session context, your trades become more intentional, less emotional, and significantly more consistent.
Hey guys guess what !!! $BTC is strong !!!If we pump this we break out of a long down trend. If you look to the left we have a similar structure that broke out the same way.
Do you think we can see history repeat it self ?
Comment like and share for more charts.
(If you need me to draw something up for you comment bellow)
BITCOIN SELLERS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
BITCOIN SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 87,523.10
Target Level: 84,571.68
Stop Loss: 89,485.39
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 9h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
BITCOIN WEEKLY KEY LEVELS.Hello Folks!
We are at 4 point Key Levels which includes the 100ma. Trix momentum suggests further downside confirmed by the Super Trend Indicator. I use trend line areas rather then a single line it cover more points and results in less fake breaks. Lower time frames will hold more clues if downside continues or not.
BTC / LONG / 25.12.25Entry model:
Hourly liquidity sweep within a 4-hour bullish imbalance
Inversion of a 15-minute bearish imbalance
V-shaped reversal
Additional arguments:
During the hourly liquidity raid:
A spike in long limit orders on the spot market
Closure of long positions on futures (open interest decreases, volume delta decreases)
Liquidation of long positions on futures
BTC OpEx Weekly OutlookI expect a volatile week for Bitcoin due to the massive OpEx on 12/26. The notional value expiring is roughly 8x the previous week.
Max pain is 96k on Deribit. Other exchanges are slightly higher.
Dealer gamma exposure is negative on Monday which should add volatility, so I expect another trip to recent support around 85k. As the week continues, gamma sharply turns positive which should have a dampening effect on price swings. As OpEx approaches, I expect price to move up at an increasing rate due to dealers unwinding hedges into Friday.
Max pain is around 96k, so it should be a magnet for price throughout the week. Hedges unwinding will apply pressure to short liquidations which could cascade with a peak in the 94-96k range.
After options expiration, price should fall sharply IF whales write more covered calls forcing MMs to hedge.
I am short into Monday. Plan to long if it dips, then open a short in the 94-96k range or whatever the top is near EOD Friday with a final target of 72k in the coming weeks/months.
Head and shoulders in long term .I have identified this kind of patterns multiple times before its full formation. From a technical perspective, the 110k–113k range represents a critical resistance zone. a clean break and sustained acceptance above this area would likely open the door for an impulsive move toward the 147 k and 170k targets.
Prior to that, price must reclaim and confirm above 105k, followed by a decisive breakout of the 110k–113k region. Failure to do so keeps the current structure vulnerable and leaves this pattern valid as a potential distribution top, which could set the stage for the next bear market.
While my macro bias remains bullish, I will stay cautious until these key levels are conclusively reclaimed.
BTC bull market is not over, how should we plan for the future?#BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT BITSTAMP:BTCUSD BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
The BTC market did not experience much volatility over the weekend, and today it only rose to near the 90500 resistance level before falling back again. Judging from the hourly and 4H charts, BTC still has room for a pullback and adjustment, and may need to consolidate again before breaking through the upper resistance. Short-term support is at 87800-87000. If it falls back to this level, we can consider taking a small long position in BTC. The key support level remains at 85500-85000. As long as this range holds, the bullish trend for BTC remains intact
How to read candlestick: Part 2 (BEARISH REVERSAL PATTERNS)Identifying the top of a trend is one of the hardest skills in trading. While no one can catch the exact top every time, Bearish Reversal Patterns are the market’s way of signaling that the buyers are exhausted and the sellers (bears) are seizing control.
These patterns usually appear after a sustained uptrend or at a key resistance level.
1. The Shooting Star
The Shooting Star is one of the most reliable single-candle signals. It looks like an inverted hammer but appears at the top of an uptrend.
● Structure:
1. Small Body: The body (open and close) is small and located at the bottom of the
candle's range.
2. Long Upper Wick: The upper wick (shadow) is at least 2-3 times longer than the
body.
3. No Lower Wick: Ideally, there is little to no lower wick.
● Psychology: Buyers pushed the price up significantly during the session, but sellers fought back aggressively, forcing the price to close near where it opened. The rejection of higher prices is clear.
2. Bearish Engulfing
This is a powerful two-candle pattern that signifies a major shift in momentum. It "engulfs" the previous buying pressure.
● Structure:
1. Candle 1 (Bullish): A green candle continuing the current uptrend.
2. Candle 2 (Bearish): A large red candle that opens above the previous close and
closes below the previous open. Its body completely overlaps (engulfs) the body
of the first candle.
● Psychology: The bulls tried to push up, but the bears came in with overwhelming
volume, completely wiping out the gains of the previous session and driving the price lower.
3. The Evening Star
The Evening Star is a three-candle formation that is often seen as more reliable than single-candle patterns because it unfolds over three sessions.
● Structure:
1. The Trend Candle: A large bullish candle.
2. The Star: A small-bodied candle (can be green or red) that gaps up slightly. It
represents indecision.
3. The Reversal Candle: A large bearish candle that closes well into the body of
the first bullish candle.
● Psychology: The first candle shows buyers are in control. The second candle shows
they are losing momentum (indecision). The third candle confirms that sellers have taken over and the reversal is active.
4. Dark Cloud Cover
This pattern is similar to the Bearish Engulfing but slightly less aggressive. It typically occurs at resistance levels.
● Structure:
Candle 1: A strong bullish candle.
Candle 2: A bearish candle that opens above the high of the previous candle (a
gap up) but then closes below the midpoint (50% level) of the first candle's body.
● Psychology: The market gaps up on optimism, but the rally fails. Sellers push the price
down deep into the previous day's gains, signaling a "dark cloud" over the trend.
5. Hanging Man
Interestingly, this looks exactly like a bullish Hammer, but the context is different.
● Structure: A small body at the top of the range with a long lower wick. It appears at the top of an uptrend.
● Psychology: Even though the price recovered to close near the high, the long lower wick shows that sellers were able to push the price down significantly during the session. This "sell-off" indicates that support is weakening and the trend is fragile.
TRADING TIP: CONFIRMATION IS KEY
Seeing a bearish pattern does not mean you should instantly short the market.
1. Location: These patterns are most effective at Key Resistance levels or Supply Zones.
2. Confirmation: Wait for the next candle to close lower than the pattern to confirm the
reversal.
3. RSI/Indicators: Check if your indicators (like RSI) are showing "Overbought" conditions or bearish divergence to support your trade idea.
BTCUSD – Descending Channel & Liquidity Sweep SetupBitcoin is currently trading within a well-defined descending channel, respecting both the upper and lower trend boundaries. The higher timeframe structure shows a bearish continuation phase, characterized by multiple BOS (Breaks of Structure) to the downside, confirming sustained sell-side control.
Within the channel, price has repeatedly formed Equal Highs / Equal Lows, indicating liquidity buildup on both sides of the range. These equal levels suggest that the market is engineered to sweep liquidity before committing to a larger directional move.
The earlier CHoCH (Change of Character) marked the transition from bullish to bearish market structure, after which price respected the bearish order flow and continued lower. Recent price action near the channel lows shows compression and range-bound behavior, hinting at potential sell-side liquidity exhaustion.
A sweep of the equal lows near the lower boundary of the channel could act as a catalyst for a bullish reversal or strong mean reversion move. If price reclaims the channel and breaks structure to the upside, a trend reversal scenario becomes likely.
In the bullish case, upside targets align with prior liquidity pools and inefficiencies, with a macro objective toward the 100K–120K region, assuming confirmation via structure shift and acceptance above key resistance.
Bias:
• Short-term: Bearish / consolidation
• Mid–Long term: Bullish upon liquidity sweep + bullish BOS confirmation
Key Concepts:
SMC, BOS, CHoCH, Equal Highs/Lows, Liquidity Sweep, Descending Channel






















