Market insights
BTC Remains BullishBTC Analysis Update
The previous buy analysis for BTC remains valid, with $100,000 still as the upside target.
On the H1 timeframe, bullish momentum is currently present, indicating active buying pressure.
If this momentum sustains, it is likely to transition and confirm on the H4 timeframe, strengthening the continuation bias toward higher levels.
Bias remains bullish as long as structure and momentum are maintained.
Bitcoin Price Correction: Heading Toward $70,000As of December 17, 2025, Bitcoin is trading around $87,000–$88,000, down from its all-time high of over $126,000 earlier this year. Recent market volatility, driven by macroeconomic factors like potential Bank of Japan rate hikes and profit-taking after the post-election rally, has analysts warning of further downside.
Many technical indicators point to a potential retest of the $70,000–$75,000 support zone. This level has historically acted as strong demand in previous corrections and aligns with key moving averages and Elliott Wave projections from experts. A drop to $70,000 would represent a roughly 20% decline from current prices, which is common in Bitcoin's cyclical patterns during consolidation phases.
While long-term bullish factors remain (institutional adoption, ETF inflows, and scarcity post-halving), short-term bearish pressure could push BTC lower before any rebound. Traders should watch $84,000 as immediate support—if it breaks, $70,000 becomes the next major target.
This is not financial advice; cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile.
Downside risks persist for BTCUSD amid waning risk appetiteBitcoin prices (BTCUSD) slipped toward an eight-month low as weakening risk sentiment and macroeconomic uncertainty weighed on crypto markets, while selling pressure intensified after forced liquidations in leveraged long positions, accelerating the downside momentum. ETF outflows of more than 500 mln USD over the past two days signal fading demand and limited dip-buying interest.
Technically, BTCUSD extended its decline following a breakout of the ascending trendline, reinforcing the broader downtrend. A sustained break below 83,800 may pave the way for a further decline toward the swing low at 80,500. Conversely, a recovery back above 88,000 could prompt a retest of the 90,000 resistance.
By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness
BTCUSD – 4H Demand Long SetupI am looking for a long setup only after confirmation, not a blind entry.
The ideal sequence:
Sell-side liquidity sweep into the 4H demand zone (equal lows / internal range lows taken).
Bullish Change of Character (CHoCH) on the 5m–15m timeframe with clear displacement.
Pullback into a bullish FVG or refined order block formed by the CHoCH impulse.
Long entry on reaction from that level.
Execution Plan
Entry: LTF pullback into CHoCH FVG / OB (inside HTF demand)
Stop-loss: Below the swept low / demand low
Invalidation
4H candle closes below demand
No bullish displacement after liquidity sweep
CHoCH forms outside the HTF zone
BTCUSD: The Energy of an Upward WaveIn recent days, BTCUSD has shown a series of mixed movements, but the overall picture is gradually leaning toward growth. The wave structure suggests that the market is accumulating energy through short corrective pauses, creating a foundation for the continuation of the bullish impulse.
The chart shows that the price is holding in the upper part of the range, while downward fluctuations appear more like temporary pauses than full-fledged reversals. This reflects the resilience of buyer interest and the gradual strengthening of sentiment.
As a result, BTCUSD retains the potential to develop an upward wave, where further movement will depend on the market’s ability to confirm the strength of the current impulse and consolidate above local zones.
BTCUSD | Channel as a Continuation Pattern – $100k in FocusBitcoin has shifted from impulse to digestion mode, consolidating after the prior sell-off while macro markets fixate on whether inflation stays sticky into early 2026.
Technical Lens:
Price is travelling inside a well-defined, range-bound rising channel. Structure remains constructive as long as the lower bound holds, with recent downside probes failing to accelerate. RSI is sitting mid-range, not stretched, suggesting there’s still room for momentum expansion if price resolves higher.
Scenarios:
If the channel holds and price breaks the upper range: This consolidation acts as a continuation pattern, opening scope for a move back toward the prior supply zone near $100k. RSI expansion would likely confirm momentum re-engagement.
If the lower channel gives way: The current structure is invalidated, shifting focus back to deeper support and signalling that macro headwinds are dominating.
Catalysts:
US CPI + Jobs data over the next few prints
Softer CPI / weaker labour → repricing toward more Fed cuts (risk-on tailwind)
Hotter CPI / resilient jobs → fewer cuts for longer (risk-off pressure)
Markets remain explicitly focused on inflation staying above target and what that implies for January/February Fed expectations.
Takeaway:
This channel is the decision zone — hold and resolve higher, and $100k comes back onto the radar; lose it, and the consolidation thesis breaks.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart: Downtrend Pressure with Early Sta
Trend: BTC is still trading below a clear descending trendline, confirming a broader bearish structure since the mid-year highs. Lower highs and lower lows remain intact.
Price Action: Current price is around $90,160, consolidating after a sharp sell-off in November. This looks like a pause or base-building phase, not yet a confirmed reversal.
RSI (≈44): RSI is below 50, indicating weak momentum, but it has stabilized above oversold territory. This suggests selling pressure is easing, though bulls are not in control yet.
MACD: MACD remains below the signal line, but histogram contraction hints at bearish momentum slowing. A bullish crossover would be an early reversal signal.
Momentum/Volume Indicator: Negative values persist, showing dominant bearish momentum, but the flattening bars imply reduced downside strength.
Key Levels:
Resistance: $95,000–$100,000 (trendline + prior support)
Support: $85,000, then $78,000
Outlook:
BTC is in a bearish-to-neutral transition zone. A daily close above the descending trendline with RSI reclaiming 50 would favor a trend reversal. Failure to hold $85,000 increases the risk of another leg down toward $78,000.
BTCUSD: Potential Pullback from Local ResistanceBitcoin is currently testing a significant resistance zone, and we are seeing signs of exhaustion at these levels. This setup focuses on a high-probability short opportunity targeting the immediate support levels below.
The Technical Thesis
Resistance Rejection: Price has reached a supply zone (highlighted in orange) where previous selling pressure originated. The current price action shows a struggle to maintain momentum above $89,000.
Market Structure: After a strong push, we are looking for a "lower high" or a failure to break the previous peak, signaling a shift in short-term trend.
Targeting Liquidity: The primary targets are the established support levels where buyers previously stepped in.
Trade Setup Details
Entry Zone: $88,100 - $89,000
Stop Loss (SL): Above the recent swing high at $90,336 (Critical to protect against a breakout).
Take Profit 1 (TP1): $87,000 (First Support).
Take Profit 2 (TP2): $85,000 (Strong Support / Major Liquidity Pool).
Risk Management
As always, BTC can be highly volatile. Ensure you are using proper position sizing. If the price closes decisively above the orange resistance zone on a 4H timeframe, the bearish thesis is invalidated.
What do you think? Will we see a bounce at $87k, or is a deeper correction to $85k incoming? Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
BTC BUY TRADE SETUP PREMIUM ANALYSIS.BTCUSD — Trade Setup
📈 Bias: Bullish
🎯 Entry: 87,600 / 87,900
🛑 Stop Loss: 86,500
🎯 Target: 89,000
📊 Technical Reasoning:
BTCUSD is maintaining bullish momentum after holding above a key support zone. The entry area is positioned where buyers are expected to defend price and continue the move higher. The stop loss is placed beyond the invalidation level to manage downside risk, while the target is aligned with a higher liquidity objective and continuation structure.
📌 Execution Plan:
* Buy from the marked entry zone
* Apply disciplined risk management
* Monitor price behavior as it approaches the target
❌ Invalidation:
A clear break and close below 86,500 would invalidate this bullish setup.
💬 Do you expect continuation toward 89,000, or consolidation before the next leg up?
BTCUSD – Weak Rebound, Market Still in Waiting ModeHello, this is Domic.
Looking at the BTC H4 chart right now, the first thing that stands out clearly is this: BTC is correcting and consolidating after a strong sell-off, not transitioning into a new uptrend yet.
Previously, price dropped sharply from the 92k area down to near 86k — a decisive move that reflected active selling pressure. However, after this decline, BTC did not continue to break down further. Instead, it shifted into a sideways range with a modest rebound. This is no longer a panic sell, but rather a phase where the market is trying to rebalance itself after the dump.
From a technical perspective, price is currently trapped between two downward-sloping EMAs. Each rebound attempt gets capped and fails to break decisively above the upper moving average, while candle bodies remain small with hesitant closes. This behavior suggests that buying pressure is only strong enough for a technical bounce, not powerful enough to reverse the broader structure.
Price structure reinforces this view as well: subsequent highs are not meaningfully higher, and subsequent lows are not significantly lower either, forming a narrow, slightly bearish sideways range. This is a classic “crossroads” type of market — not weak enough to collapse immediately, but lacking the foundation needed for a sustained upside move.
Wishing everyone successful trading!
Bitcoin Isn’t Trending — It’s Trapping TradersBTCUSD (H1) — Focused Market Analysis
Market Structure
BTC is clearly stuck in a range, with price repeatedly rejecting from the upper resistance zone and holding above a well-defined support zone.
No higher highs or lower lows → no trend, only balance.
Key Zones
Resistance Zone: ~89,800 – 90,200
Support Zone: ~84,800 – 85,200
Current Price: Trading near the mid-range → low R:R for breakout trades.
Moving Averages
Price is entangled with EMAs, confirming indecision and sideways conditions.
MAs are flat → momentum is neutral.
Price Behavior
Repeated liquidity sweeps at both extremes.
Dotted projection highlights a range-expansion cycle, not a trend.
Breakouts inside the range are likely fake moves.
Scenarios
Primary Scenario (High Probability):
Continued sideways oscillation between support and resistance.
Breakout Scenario (Only valid if):
Strong close above resistance with volume → opens upside continuation.
Breakdown below support → shifts market to bearish extension.
Summary
Bitcoin is not ready to trend.
Patience > prediction. Trade the range or wait for a confirmed breakout.
BTC/USD – Potential Downtrend Continuation Toward Key Support"1. Descending Channel (Blue)
Price has been moving inside a downward sloping channel — lower highs and lower lows. This is a bearish pattern until broken convincingly.
Traders watch for price to stay inside or break out — a breakout above suggests potential trend reversal; a break below suggests continuation.
👉 The price recently bounced off the lower boundary, showing support at that channel floor.
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🔴 2. Moving Average (Red Curve)
A moving average (likely something like a 200-period) is plotted. When price is below the moving average, it typically indicates bearish momentum; price above suggests bullish momentum.
Here we see price approaching that red line from below → this often acts as dynamic resistance for bulls.
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🔵 3. Key Horizontal Support (Blue Line at ~85,170)
A strong horizontal “target point” / support level is marked.
This line represents a zone where buyers previously stepped in and could again if price falls.
The chart clearly marks this as target on downside if the current setup fails.
Support & resistance levels like this are some of the most watched areas on price charts — they act as floors and ceilings for price action.
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🎯 The Trade Setup Illustrated
On the right side you see a green/red box which visually represents a trade idea:
🟢 Entry Area
The current price (~88,100–88,800) looks like the potential entry.
The green zone down below is the profit target zone.
🔴 Red Zone
This is the stop-loss area — meaning if price rises above ~90,000–90,400, the bearish setup would be invalidated.
📉 Directional Arrow Down
The big arrow pointing down suggests the analyst expects a move lower, from current levels toward the support around ~85,000+.
So the idea is:
If price fails at the descending resistance and moving average → enter short.
Stop above resistance / above high of red.
Target the lower support area.
This is classic channel-based trading logic: resistance to support → short trade.
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🔎 Bull vs Bear Scenarios
🔻 Bearish Scenario (favored by this chart)
✔ Price confirms resistance at moving average / upper channel
✔ Breaks back down
✔ Moves toward target zone (~85,000)
This would follow the pattern of lower highs and lower lows.
📈 Bullish Break Scenario
If price breaks above the red moving average and upper trendline convincingly with volume, that would: ✔ Break the downtrend ✔ Signal potential for upside ✔ Invalidate the short setup
Volume confirmation for breakouts is crucial — without it, breakouts often fail.
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🧠 Summary in Plain Terms
Trend: Currently still bearish inside a descending pattern.
Resistance: Moving average + upper channel line blocking upside.
Support: Strong horizontal area around mid-$80k’s.
Trade idea on chart: Short toward support, stop above recent highs.
Key levels drawn:
🚫 Stop zone: ~90,000+
🎯 Target zone: ~85,000ish
BTCUSD downtrend continuation below 93,700 resisanceThe BTCUSD currency pair continues to display a bearish outlook, in line with the prevailing downward trend. Recent price action suggests a corrective pullback, potentially setting up for another move lower if resistance holds.
Key Level: 93,700
This zone, previously a consolidation area, now acts as a significant resistance level.
Bearish Scenario (rejection at 93,700):
A failed test and rejection at 93,700 would likely resume the bearish momentum.
Downside targets include:
84,340 – Initial support
82,350 – Intermediate support
80,490 – Longer-term support level
Bullish Scenario (breakout above 93,700):
A confirmed breakout and daily close above 93,700 would invalidate the bearish setup.
In that case, potential upside resistance levels are:
95,160 – First resistance
97,085 – Further upside target
Conclusion
BTCUSD remains under bearish pressure, with the 98,240 level acting as a key inflection point. As long as price remains below this level, the bias favours further downside. Traders should watch for price confirmation around that level to assess the next move.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
BITCOIN -H4 TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS BTC breaks wedge structure, bearish pressure increasing
Over the past month, BTC has been consolidating within a large wedge pattern, creating a complex and somewhat misleading structure.
The recent breakout has clarified the pattern as bearish, significantly increasing the probability of further downside.
This shift in momentum, may also be influenced by recent MicroStrategy-related news particularly about discussions related to its potential removal from the US 100 benchmark .
Growing concerns about MicroStrategy's business model, given its extreme sensitivity to Bitcoins price fluctuations have raised uncertainty in the market.
As one of the largest bitcoin holders, any negative sentiment surrounding MicroStrategy business can directly impact BTC price action.
If Bitcoin continues to hold below the broken wedge structure, bearish continuation becomes more likely, in that scenario downside target comes into focus at :
🎯 82000
🎯 76400
BTCUSD Looking bullish from demand zone area 89,200📈 BTC/USD Market Update – 4H Timeframe
Bitcoin continues to respect the ascending channel while trading inside a broad consolidation zone.
Currently, I’m watching for buying opportunities from the key support area around $89,200 👀🟦
🎯 Technical Targets (Resistance Levels):
$92,300
$93,800
As always, remember to use proper risk management and trade responsibly ⚠️💼
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BTCUSD in Risk-Off Mode | Diversify & Scalp SmartBTCUSD Risk-Off Consolidation – Eyes on 70K Risk, Scalping to 100K
Bitcoin’s stuck in a risk-off rut, consolidating near 90,000–95,000 as global markets turn cautious. It’s not dumping yet, but a sell-off to 70,000 looms if sentiment worsens. Here’s my approach to navigate this:
Setup:
Current State: BTCUSD’s holding low, reflecting risk-off flows (flat 20-day EMA, RSI ~40). Volume profile shows weak support until 70,000.
Risk Warning: A break below 90,000 could trigger a slide to 70,000, a key demand zone with historical buying.
Strategy:
Scalping Start: Enter small-position scalps (0.01–0.02 lots) on intraday bounces (e.g., 4H bullish pin bars above 90,000), then manage into longer-term positions if momentum builds.
Diversification: Mitigate risk by trading other pairs (e.g., XAUUSD, EURUSD) with calculated entries. Use available margin and prop firm leverage (e.g., FTMO’s 1:100) wisely, keeping total risk at 10% max.
Position Management: Scale in cautiously, trailing stops to lock in profits. My long-term target is 100,000, but hope isn’t a strategy—small positions keep me flexible.
Market Context:
Risk-off sentiment (e.g., equity sell-offs, USD strength post-Fed) is capping Bitcoin’s upside. Recent highs near 103,000 (November 2025) faded fast, and low volume suggests hesitation. A 70,000 test is possible if macro fears grow, but 100,000 remains viable if safe-haven flows return. Volatility’s moderate (3–5% daily), ideal for scalping with tight risk.
Risk Warning: Don’t put all eggs in one basket. BTC’s downside risk demands diversification and strict risk management (10% max, per FTMO rules). Trade calculated, not emotional!
What’s your BTCUSD play?
Share your setups or risk-off strategies below!
#BTCUSD #Bitcoin #RiskOff #Scalping #RiskManagement






















