Trade ideas
BTCUSD: Bearish Trend Confirmed with Downside TargetsAs per the updated analysis, BTCUSD has reversed its previous bullish momentum and is now poised for a downtrend toward lower targets. The chart shows a well-defined resistance zone at 91,563, where price has started to recoil and move lower.
🔹 Market State: Bearish Reversal Confirmed
BTCUSD has now entered a consolidation phase below the resistance zone, with price rejecting the higher levels around 91,563.
The market is setting up for a downside continuation with clear price action signals. The move lower has already begun, and targets are positioned around 89,200 (Target 1), 88,000 (Target 2), and 86,386 (Target 3).
🔹 Macro Factors Driving the Decline:
1. Risk-Off Sentiment Prevails
Yesterday's decline can be attributed to the broad market risk-off sentiment. Concerns about global economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and weaker-than-expected economic data are pressuring risk assets like Bitcoin.
2. Strong USD and Profit-Taking
The US dollar’s strength has been a key factor in BTC's retreat. As the dollar rises, investors typically retreat to more secure assets, causing Bitcoin and other risk assets to experience declines.
Profit-taking after Bitcoin's recent surge also contributed to the market's downward movement.
3. Fed Rate Expectations
Fed's hawkish stance (with interest rates possibly staying higher for longer) is placing further pressure on risk assets, making them less attractive to investors. This also increases the capital inflow into USD and dampens demand for Bitcoin.
4. Macro Data Weakness
Poor economic indicators such as reduced job growth or disappointing inflation figures could contribute to the broader market decline. The weak economic data creates more uncertainty, prompting liquidation of higher-risk assets.
🔹 Price Expectations and Targets:
Resistance Zone: 91,563 (Key Rejection Point)
Target 1: 89,200
Target 2: 88,000
Target 3: 86,386
As long as price remains below 91,563, the bearish continuation setup is intact, and the market is expected to decline towards Target 1, then Target 2 and Target 3.
BITCOIN Short Swing tradeReasoning:
Strong Industry/Sector
50MA Pullback
If Labelled a Swing trade(2-6 Week Holds)
Entry: Full position on breakout
Profit Taking: Sell 1/3 at Goal 1
Final Exit: Remainder at Goal 2
If labelled a long term trade (3-12 Month Holds)
Entry: Full position on breakout
Profit Taking: Sell 1/4 to 1/5 at Goal 1
Exit Signal: Close below 20-day EMA (your trend guide) or 50EMA
Why: Strong moves are hard to time at the top, but the 20EMA acts as a reliable trend filter
Note:
Remember: Every long-term investment alert can also be played as a swing trade.
I normally use half the risk that I show here, this is because I am okay re-entering if it fails and it gives a better R/R ratio
bullish vs bearish scenariosThe chart shows a **strong bearish move** from early November, with price falling from the **$100k–$105k area** down into the **mid–high $80k range**.
* **Market structure:**
* A **BOS (Break of Structure)** is marked after price fails to hold higher levels, confirming a bearish shift.
* Following the BOS, price accelerates downward with consecutive red candles.
* **Fair Value Gap (FVG):**
* A **Daily FVG** (blue highlighted zone) is marked roughly around **$96,000–$98,000**.
* This zone represents a potential **bearish mitigation / resistance area** if price retraces upward.
* **Current price area:**
* Price is hovering around **$88,400**, shown by the red dotted horizontal line.
* Recent candles indicate **sideways consolidation** after the sharp sell-off.
* **Downside target:**
* A labeled **“NEXT DOL / TARGET”** is drawn near **$80,500**, suggesting a possible next liquidity draw or downside objective if bearish momentum continues.
* **Key takeaway:**
* Structure remains **bearish below the Daily FVG**.
* A retrace into the blue FVG could attract sellers, while failure to hold current consolidation increases the probability of a move toward **~$80k**.
ElDoradoFx – BTCUSD ANALYSIS (15/12/2025)
1️⃣ Market Overview
BTCUSD closed the week under sustained bearish pressure after rejecting major higher-timeframe supply and losing key structural supports. The market is transitioning from a macro uptrend into a deep corrective phase, with price now trading near weekly demand around $88,300–$87,800.
Momentum remains bearish, but volatility compression near support suggests a decision week ahead.
⸻
2️⃣ Technical Breakdown
🔹 Daily (D1)
• Macro trend: Corrective within larger uptrend
• Strong rejection from HTF supply $94,500–$92,600
• Daily BOS confirmed below $90,600
• Price now testing:
• Daily demand
• Rising macro trendline
• EMA structure rolling over; momentum weakening
• Key D1 verdict: Hold above $87,800 = correction | Lose it = trend degradation
🔹 H1
• Clear bearish market structure:
• LH → BOS → continuation
• EMAs fully bearish (20 < 50 < 200)
• Former demand at $89,900–$89,450 flipped into resistance
• Price respecting descending trendline
• Liquidity imbalance above remains untouched
🔹 15M–5M
• Strong impulsive sell-offs followed by weak corrective pullbacks
• Minor bullish divergence forming (relief potential)
• No bullish structure confirmed yet
• Any upside = corrective unless BOS reclaimed
⸻
3️⃣ Fibonacci Analysis (Golden Zones)
🔻 Primary Sell Swing
Swing High: $94,468
Swing Low: $88,343
• 38.2% → $90,720
• 50.0% → $91,405
• 61.8% → $92,080
🟥 Golden Zone (Sell): $90,700 – $92,100
HTF supply + trendline confluence = high-probability rejection zone.
⸻
🔺 Countertrend Buy Swing
Swing Low: $88,343
Swing High: $90,650
• 38.2% → $89,750
• 50.0% → $89,500
• 61.8% → $89,250
🟩 Intraday Buy Zone: $89,750 – $89,250
(Short-term bounce only)
⸻
4️⃣ High-Probability Trade Scenarios
📉 SELL – Primary Weekly Bias
• Entry Zone: $90,700 – $92,100
• Targets:
• $89,900
• $88,500
• $87,800
• $86,400
• Invalidation: Daily close above $92,600
• Logic: HTF supply + fib confluence + bearish structure
⸻
📉 SELL – Breakdown Continuation
• Trigger: Daily close below $88,300
• Retest: $88,500–$88,900 failure
• Targets: $87,800 → $86,400 → $84,000
• Invalidation: Reclaim above $89,900
⸻
📈 BUY – Countertrend (Lower Probability)
• Entry Zone: $88,300 – $87,800
• Targets: $89,500 → $90,400
• Invalidation: Below $87,200
• Note: Countertrend only — reduce size
⸻
📈 BUY – Trend Recovery (High Confirmation Required)
• Trigger: Daily close above $92,100
• Retest: $91,400–$92,100 hold
• Targets: $93,600 → $94,500 → $96,000
• Invalidation: Loss of $90,600
⸻
5️⃣ Fundamental Watch
• No major crypto-specific catalysts this weekend
• FOMC week ahead → volatility expansion expected
• Risk sentiment and DXY remain key drivers
• Weekend likely liquidity-driven (fakeouts possible)
⸻
6️⃣ Key Technical Levels
• Resistance: 89,900 / 90,400 / 90,700 / 92,100
• Support: 88,300 / 87,800 / 86,400
• Sell Golden Zone: 90,700 – 92,100
• Bullish Reclaim Level: 92,100
• Bearish Continuation Level: 88,300
⸻
7️⃣ Analyst Summary
BTCUSD is in a structured bearish correction after rejecting major HTF resistance. The market is currently compressing near daily demand, setting up for either:
• A corrective bounce into premium (sell opportunity), or
• A continuation breakdown into deeper weekly demand.
Patience is required — reaction zones matter more than direction this week.
⸻
8️⃣ Final Bias Summary
• Primary Bias: Bearish (sell rallies)
• Secondary Bias: Short-term bounce possible at $88,300
• Trend Flip Only If: Daily close above $92,100
Weekly control level: $90,000
— ElDoradoFx PREMIUM 3.0 Team 🚀
#btc still in sell mode sell@high buy@low #Bitcoin still in sell zone mode, from this level the #btc can go below to this recent low #75k
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BTC 15m Update — post-breakdown bouncePrice is reacting off the 5m Bull FVG 88.4–88.6k after the breakdown below 89,945.
This bounce is mitigation until we reclaim structure.
Key levels on my chart: 90,319 / 89,945 / 89,450 / 89,279.
⸻
Scenario ladder (with SL/TP)
A) Bull reclaim 89,279 (first breakdown-fail signal)
Trigger: 15m close > 89,279 + next 15m holds > 89,279
Entry: hold-close or first retest from above
SL: below the reclaim swing low (or conservative: below 88,600 FVG top)
TPs: 89,450 → 89,600 → 89,945 → 90,319
⸻
B) Bull reclaim 89,450 (stronger shift)
Trigger: 15m close > 89,450 + hold
Entry: retest of 89,450 from above (best)
SL: below 89,279 (or conservative: below 88,600)
TPs: 89,945 → 90,319 (stretch: higher 1h FVG zone if you track it)
⸻
C) Bear retest-fail at 89,279 (sell the bounce)
Trigger: price tags 89,279, then 15m closes back < 89,279 (rejection)
Entry: rejection close / next pullback
SL: above rejection high (or structural: above 89,450)
TPs: 88,600 / 88,400 / 88,000 (lower DBR)
⸻
D) Bear continuation (FVG fails)
Trigger: 15m close < 88,400 + continued acceptance below
Entry: retest of 88,400–88,600 from below (best)
SL: above 88,600
TPs: 88,000 / 87,600
⸻
Rule
No mid-box guessing: I act on close + hold, not wicks.
Reclaim 89,279 / 89,450 = bounce may evolve into reversal.
Fail there = continuation.
Completing Wave 5The price is currently in the process of completing Wave 5.
After finishing the first four waves, Bitcoin is now advancing towards completing Wave 5, targeting around $77,000. From that point, upon confirmation of a positive (bullish) divergence on the MACD indicator, we could see an initial corrective rally up to $102,000 (representing approximately 50% retracement of the previous wave). The situation would then need to be re-evaluated from there.
If this rally materializes, it would present a favorable opportunity for selling (taking profits or shorting). In the long term, the price outlook remains bearish or range-bound.
Bitcoin ABC Correction Complete I believe the correction is completed but have an open mind to more downside. We are now hovering around the 0.236 fib - the typical correction extents and we have decreased selling along the downward trend signaling selling weakening. My short-term target is 97-98k range in the short-term pending breakout.
Short BiasTrade Plan (Short Bias)
I’m currently bearish following the 4H market structure shift and the break of the higher low (neckline). Price has shown clear bearish displacement, and I’m looking for continuation after the retracement and rejection from premium.
- Entry: 89,026.07
- Stop Loss: 89,424.78 (above inducement / structure reclaim)
Targets:
- TP 1: 87,766.09 – first sell-side liquidity, partials here
- TP 2: 83,868.10 – major sell-side liquidity / range low
Risk is defined, and the trade offers solid R:R if structure continues to hold.
Execution is based on confirmation, not blind entries.
Let’s see how price reacts.
BTCUSD ARE WE AT A CRITIAL POINT BEFORE WE SEE A DROPwe see on the 4h time line a pendant formation
we also see that we are at the point where the market could make a break below the pendant
we see bearish pressure is huge and bulls are also aiming to keep the support at 88559 from failing
the pendant has a lot of dojis and almost no strong candle movements on the 4h because of the pressure from bought sides
at this level btc has 6 touches clearly showing the strenght of this level
but with caution we can also say it shows how this support level has depleted its power and postions at this level could be more obvious prime for stop hunting
lets trade save ....
BTCUSD view!!US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows of $237.44 million this week. Strategy Inc. bought 10,624 Bitcoin for $962.7 million, increasing its total to 660,624 BTC.
1
Grayscale Research has released a report predicting that Bitcoin is expected to break its all-time high in 2026, addressing concerns about a prolonged downturn in the cryptocurrency market.
2
In 2025, Bitcoin experienced significant volatility, fluctuating between approximately $95,000 and reaching an all-time high of $125,000, highlighting its price dynamics during that period
Improved capital flows + strengthening technical indicatorsCapital Flow: Diminishing Selling Pressure & Institutional Accumulation on Dips
The capital side has shown the characteristic of "structural improvement": ① The open interest of perpetual contracts has dropped by nearly half since October, with excessively crowded trades cleared out, making the market structure healthier. ② On-chain data indicates that institutional wallets have been continuously increasing holdings within the $88,000 - $91,000 price range. Coupled with the supply-side reform where the U.S. strategic reserve freezes 6% of the circulating supply, the tradable chips have contracted. ③ The capital flow of ETFs has seen a marginal recovery. Some institutions have been accumulating positions through OTC channels amid the volatile market. The volume of large orders of 50 coins or more per transaction has increased by 12% month-on-month, and the selling pressure has entered a state of exhaustion.
Policy Dividends: Regulatory Confirmation of Rights & Strategic Reserve Backing
U.S. crypto policies have formed long-term favorable support: The Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act has incorporated 200,000 BTC into the permanently non-saleable reserve, which has essentially restructured the supply-demand pattern. The coordinated regulation between the federal and state governments has established the world's first multi-level compliance system, reducing institutional concerns about policy risks when entering the market. Although short-term policy dividends have not directly driven price increases, they have provided a "value anchor" for the $90,000 mark, avoiding the risk of sharp declines and forming a margin of safety for long positions.
Bitcoin trading strategy
buy:89000-90000
tp:92000-93000-95000
sl:88000
BTC, The Spiral of Doom: Multi Spacetime Analysis (-O_o-)Behold the Golden Spiral of Destiny! We are witnessing a textbook collision between sacred Sanskrit geometry and market exhaustion.
1. What goes up... usually hurts coming down. The moon lost its magnetic pull, and gravity decided to stop being polite. Result? A 13% face-plant from the highs in merely 7 days, then continued dumping. We attempted a bounce at the spiral line, failed miserably, and are currently trapped in the purple box until further notice.
The Rejection: Notice how price is struggling to breathe? The key level killing the momentum right now is that red line at $94k.
The Current Box: We are currently trapped between $88,750 and $94,500. Having crossed the second line of the spiral without a breakout, the structure is heavy. The spiral demands a sacrifice, and right now, and gravity is there to help. The ceiling is solid.
2. The Weekly View: "The Hangover" While the Daily chart shows the immediate slide, the Weekly chart is likely screaming momentum divergence. The massive extension above the moving averages indicates we stretched the rubber band too far.
We are in a mean-reversion phase. The Weekly candles are looking for a "higher low" to rest on, and the Spiral suggests that resting point is much lower than where we are sitting today.
Other factors:
The Macro Headwinds: Before we look at the targets, understand why the spiral is heavy. Global liquidity is actively tightening.
- Bank of Japan Fears: Renewed fears of interest rate hikes from the BOJ are draining the "cheap money" that often fuels crypto speculation.
- ETF Outflows: Institutional flows have reversed, with record outflows (over $1.2 billion) confirming a "risk-off" shift among the big players.
- Fed Stance: Hopes for aggressive rate cuts have faded, leaving markets without the liquidity injection needed to bring valuation and sustain it above $98k, even after december hawkish rate cut.
Outlook:
-Scenario A: The Spiral Slide (Bearish Primary) Probability: 80%
The Move: We fail to break the box lid at $94,565. Price bleeds slowly to the bottom of the consolidation, then flushes violently.
Target 1: We slice through the "Weak Demand Zone" around $82,000 like butter. (Note: Analysts see $80k as a confirmation level for a deeper bear trend).
Target 2: The spiral guides us perfectly to the "Strong Demand Zone" at $69K. This is the "Golden Pocket" retest of the previous cycle cheeky highs.
- Scenario B: The God Candle (Bullish Invalidation) Probability: 20%
The Move: A sudden, high-volume reclamation of $98,000.
Why this number? Breaking back above $98k puts us back inside the spiral's previous arc and proves the "Box" was actually a bear trap. Until then, any pump is just a lower high.
Final Word: Sanskrit Geometry has spoken. As long as we are below $94,500, the path of least resistance is down to $69,100. Keep your bids low and your stops tight.
Bitcoin (BTC) Short-Term OutlookBitcoin is consolidating within a range, bounded by $89,500 support and $94,000 resistance. In the bullish scenario, a decisive break and hold above $94,000 confirms trend strength, bringing the ultimate $135,000 target within reach. However, should the $89,500 support fail, the market will enter a more serious bearish phase. The market awaits a catalyst to determine its final direction, and risk management remains crucial.
The market is currently in a state of indecision, awaiting a catalyst (such as macro-economic data or ETF flows) to dictate its next major direction. Traders are advised to exercise caution and utilize robust risk management strategies when navigating this volatile range-bound market.
BTSUSD: Growth & Bullish Forecast
Our strategy, polished by years of trial and error has helped us identify what seems to be a great trading opportunity and we are here to share it with you as the time is ripe for us to buy BTSUSD.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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