Crypto consolidating ahead of rally towards All Time HighsWith US equity markets closed for Juneteenth, I'm checking in on an equal weight basket of cryptos. Recently I said crypto looked to be heating up for a run at new highs.
As I look today, prices appear range bound on the daily chart. There's a bearish double-top formation, beside declining momentum. The bottom of the range resting at the 200 Day Moving Average, and a test of it seems likely.
Should there be a bounce off the 200 Day SMA, and a break through the top end of the range we might get a shot at those new All Time Highs.
BTCUSD trade ideas
Equal Weight Crypto Precariously PositionedWhenever I want a decent understanding of what crypto is doing on aggregate, I consult an equal weight portfolio of 10 of the top cryptos by market cap.
The sector has been building another pennant, trying for a push to fresh highs, but momentum is flagging. The last time this happened, not too long back, there was a solid drawdown before the pump.
By the look of it, there's room for a 30% drop. Given that so many cryptos have doubled, tripled, 5x, 25x, etc don't be surprised if there's a crash soon.
BTC #This 1-hour Bitcoin (BTC/USD) chart showThis 1-hour Bitcoin (BTC/USD) chart shows a clear recovery from recent lows, breaking through a resistance zone around $115,000. The projected red path suggests a bullish continuation toward the $117,000–$119,000 area, supported by a parabolic curve and upward trendlines. However, the price is currently facing resistance near $117,000, as indicated by the minor rejection at the top. Key support lies near $112,000 if the bullish scenario fails.
Let's learn & Apply Elliott Wave Rules on chart: BTCUSD BitcoinHello Friends,
Welcome to RK_Chaarts,
Friends, Today we are going to learn 3 Rules of the Elliott Wave theory, there are three principles and some patterns. Impulses move in a 1-2-3-4-5 pattern, either as an impulse or a motive wave. However, within impulses, there are three rules:
Rule No 1:
Wave 2 will never retrace more than 100% of Wave 1.
Rule No 2:
Wave 3 will never be the shortest among Waves 1, 3, and 5; it can be the largest, but never the smallest.
Rule No 3:
Wave 4 cannot overlap Wave 1, except in diagonals or triangles; in impulses, it cannot overlap.
We've checked these three rules and marked them with separate tick marks on the chart with different colors, making them clearly visible. You can review the chart and verify these rules yourself, learning how wave principles are applied and checked.
We've explained all this through a drawing on the chart, so we won't elaborate further here. Moving forward, let's analyze what the wave theory suggests about the current market trend. This entire analysis is shared for Educational purposes only.
I hope you'll consider this educational post as a learning resource, Definitely, I encourage you to review the chart as an image or picture to better understand the concepts we've worked hard to explain.
Our effort will be successful if you gain a deeper understanding and learn something new from this post. If you find this helpful and informative, our hard work will have paid off. Please keep this in mind as you review the material.
Now let's explore how wave counts within wave counts, or lower degrees within higher degrees, unfold through complete wave theory patterns and following theory Rules all the times.
Let's take a closer look at the Bitcoin chart we've analyzed using Elliott Waves. From this perspective, it's clear that the Intermediate Degree Wave (2) concluded around June 23rd.
After this, we observe that the internal wave counts of the lower degree, specifically Wave 1-2-3 (in red) have completed their cycle of Minor degree. Furthermore, Red Wave 4 of same Minor degree has been moving sideways, characterized by a downward trend.
Notably, the fall of Red Wave 4 is classified as a Minor Degree movement. Interestingly, this downward movement appears to have terminated in an even lower degree, namely the Minute Degree, which we've marked in black as ((w))-((x))-((y))-((xx))-((z)) that means Wave 4 of Minor degree (in Red) is complete.
Given that Red Wave 4 Minor has reached its conclusion, it's highly plausible that Wave 5 has initiated. This development suggests that Bitcoin is poised to make a significant move.
Moving on to the analysis, we observe that:
- Rule 1: Wave 2 has not retraced more than 100% of Wave 1, so this rule is intact.
- Rule 2: Wave 3 is not the shortest among Waves 1, 3, and 5, so this rule is also valid.
- Rule 3: Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1, so this rule is also satisfied.
Bitcoin is all set to shake things up! We eagerly anticipate further rallies in the market.
This post is shared purely for educational purpose & it’s Not a trading advice.
I am not Sebi registered analyst.
My studies are for educational purpose only.
Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses.
Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else.
However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business.
If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...!
Hope this post is helpful to community
Thanks
RK💕
Disclaimer and Risk Warning.
The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Chaarts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Chaarts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
Bitcoin Range for August?Historically August has been a tough month for crypto in the past with mostly flat to negative returns. For that reason, although not a perfect science, I would not be surprised if we see a rangebound environment continuation for BTC.
So what would that look like? Structurally there are three thirds to the range, currently price is looking to break through into the upper third after bouncing off the bottom third bullish orderblock.
Trade setups will naturally present themselves as rotational plays both bullish and bearish at the extremes of each of the thirds but much larger trades from the range top and bottom.
Altcoins are lagging behind BTC structurally so where BTC has been choppy for a few weeks, most large cap alts have hit their highs and are now looking to settle into a range before the next leg up.
BTC Retrace RoadMap and 3 nearby supports worth watching NOWThis is a near-term followup to my big picture linked below.
Dip is underway after orbiting our Genesis Fib at 117.9k.
Quickly approaching the next three supports worth watching.
Supports get stronger below but each one needs to slow the dip.
$ 115,140 is a minor fib but possible end of dip wave.
$ 113,9xx is a double fib that should be pretty strong
$ 111,661 is the sister Genesis fib, and a MUST HOLD
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Big Picture chart and why 117.9k was KEY
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Bitcoin Ascending Channel Analysis - WAIT FOR CONFIRMATIONS!Bitcoin continues its methodical progression within a well-defined ascending channel, currently trading at $114,393. The price action demonstrates textbook technical behavior, respecting both the upper and lower channel boundaries with precision.
Key Technical Observations
Channel Dynamics : The ascending channel pattern remains intact since March lows, with multiple successful tests of support around the lower trendline. Current positioning near channel midpoint suggests balanced momentum.
Moving Average Confluence : Price is trading above all major EMAs (114,262 and 114,521), indicating sustained bullish sentiment. The tight clustering of these averages suggests consolidation before the next directional move.
Volume Profile : Recent volume patterns show institutional accumulation during pullbacks, with lighter volume on advances - typical of healthy uptrends in mature phases.
Strategic Levels
Immediate Resistance: $116,500-$117,000 zone (upper channel boundary)
Key Support: $110,000-$111,000 (lower channel confluence with EMA cluster)
Breakout Target: $125,000+ (measured move projection)
Risk Assessment
The current technical setup presents a favorable risk-reward profile for position traders. However, proximity to channel resistance warrants cautious position sizing. A break below $110,000 would invalidate the ascending channel thesis and signal deeper retracement potential toward $105,000.
Probability Matrix :
Channel continuation: 65%
Upside breakout: 25%
Channel breakdown: 10%
Trade Management Framework
For swing positions, consider scaling approaches near channel extremes. Risk management remains paramount - the crypto market's inherent volatility can quickly invalidate technical patterns despite their statistical reliability.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making investment decisions. The author may hold positions in the discussed assets.
BITCOIN Will Fall! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for BITCOIN.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 118,337.45.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 113,068.85.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Bitcoin DumpsBitcoin is putting in a textbook retest here. Price bounced cleanly off support at $112,000 – a key horizontal level that also lines up perfectly with the rising 50-day moving average. That’s classic technical behavior. The bounce looks good on the surface, but it came on low weekend volume, which always warrants a bit of caution. There’s not much conviction behind the move yet.
Looking under the hood, the RSI still hasn’t reached oversold levels, even after a pretty sharp drop from the highs. That’s notable, especially since we saw a clear bearish divergence at the top – price made a higher high, but RSI made a lower high, signaling momentum was already fading. Until we get a stronger reaction and volume pickup, this might just be a pause before another leg down.
Bitcoin Consolidates Below VWAP Amid Structural UncertaintyFenzoFx—Bitcoin’s downtrend eased near the bullish order block but hasn’t entered the zone. It’s currently consolidating around $114,360.0, below the July 14 VWAP.
No clear break of structure has occurred, making long positions risky. Key support lies at $110,650.0, backed by high volume.
Technically, price is expected to enter this zone. If it does, traders should watch for a break of structure on lower time frames like M15. This setup offers a minimum 1:7 risk-to-reward.
If BTC closes below the main support, bearish momentum may continue toward the next order block at $110,120.0.
BTCUSD: Consolidating at $112K, Watching $120KInstrument: BTCUSD
Timeframe: Daily
Date: August 4, 2025
Analysis:
BTC dropped to $112,000, down 5.1% from $118,000, holding above the $112,000 support. The hawkish FOMC triggered this pullback, but $112K is a key level. I scaled in on the dip as seen in my previous BTC idea and X
Chart Setup:
Support: $112,000, $100,000
Resistance: $115,000, $120,000
Watching for intraday BTC bounce firstMorning folks,
So, neither NFP data nor technical picture helped BTC to stay above 117. While US Treasury is started drain liquidity and borrow (they need 1 Trln this month), sending ~ 150 Bln to its TGA account with the Fed - BTC got hurt.
Now price stands at vital area - previous tops. If BTC will drop under 110K, collapse could start. Let's hope that this will not happen...
Meantime, we're at 112-113K support. We already talked about it before. Here we have reversal bar and bullish engulfing pattern, so maybe we could get a bit higher pullback on intraday chart. 113.8 and 113.1K support areas on 1H TF might be considered for long entry. Invalidation point for this plan is the low of engulfing pattern.
Bitcoin - Will Bitcoin reach its previous ATH?!Bitcoin is below the EMA50 and EMA200 on the four-hour timeframe and is in its short-term descending channel. In case of an upward correction, Bitcoin can be sold from the specified supply zone, which is also at the intersection of the ceiling of the descending channel.
It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important. If the downward trend continues, we can buy in the demand range.
In recent days, Bitcoin has stabilized below the $120,000 mark, a development that reflects increasing structural maturity in the market and strong institutional capital inflows. Unlike in previous cycles, where price rallies were largely driven by retail hype, the current liquidity flows are channeled through regulated and professional instruments like ETFs. During the month of July alone, Bitcoin ETFs attracted over $6 billion in inflows, marking the third-highest monthly inflow in their history. Leading this trend were BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC, which together recorded more than $1.2 billion in net inflows within a single week. This signals a shift in trust from traditional investors toward crypto markets—within transparent, traceable, and regulated frameworks.
On-chain metrics further validate this shift. The MVRV ratio, which compares market value to realized value, is currently fluctuating between 2.2 and 2.34. These levels do not indicate profit-taking extremes nor fear of major corrections, but instead point to a healthy and rationally profitable market. Meanwhile, the supply of Bitcoin held in non-exchange wallets is rising, while exchange-held balances have dropped to their lowest levels in a decade, now accounting for just 1.25% of total supply. This trend implies reduced short-term selling pressure, as coins transition from liquid to long-term holdings.
Trader behavior is also evolving. Unlike previous bull runs, profit-taking remains controlled. The SOPR index, which measures realized profit relative to purchase price, has not yet reached saturation levels. This suggests that current holders are not satisfied with existing gains and are anticipating higher price levels. Furthermore, metrics like daily active addresses remain stable, indicating a lack of speculative retail influx. The network’s current dynamics resemble those of mature traditional markets, where investment decisions are guided by analysis, discipline, and long-term perspective.
Analysts at major financial institutions believe that if this trend continues, Bitcoin could reach targets of $180,000 to $200,000 by year-end. A more conservative scenario places the $95,000 to $100,000 range as a strong support zone—especially if political, regulatory, or macroeconomic pressures intensify. Overall, the convergence of institutional capital, rational trader behavior, stable on-chain conditions, and regulatory clarity has transformed Bitcoin into a more structured and dependable asset than ever before.
Ultimately, Bitcoin is no longer just a speculative tool. It has secured its role as a legitimate asset within the portfolios of global financial institutions. Even if the pace of capital inflow is slower than in previous cycles, the underlying structure is more robust and sustainable—offering a clearer path toward broader global adoption and higher valuation.
Nonetheless, recent data from CryptoQuant suggests that long-term Bitcoin holders (LTHs) have begun net selling near the $120,000 resistance zone—a psychologically significant level in Bitcoin’s price history. Analysts interpret this as a potential sign that veteran investors—those who entered during earlier market cycles—are now realizing profits as prices reach historic highs. If short-term holders follow suit, this shift could amplify selling pressure and trigger heightened price volatility.
Bitcoin hits $135K before a 33% correction.Firstly... I'd like to comment we have officially just had our first daily close above "Minor Resistance" trend-line I have put in, additionally... a daily close above the 50SMA.
All trend-lines have flipped into bullish posture as well as my indicators and SMA / EMA ribbons!
📈 Price & Fibonacci Levels
Holding above key support: $104,751 (0.888 Fib)
Eyeing 1.618 Fib extension target: $139,094
Former resistance from 2021 has flipped into support, confirming breakout structure
🌊 M2 Global Liquidity Index = The Engine Behind BTC
BTC price is highly correlated with the M2 Global Liquidity Index (now at 98.91) and has been following since JAN 2024.
What is M2? It's a measure of global money supply growth. Rising M2 = more liquidity in the system = bullish for risk assets like BTC
This macro liquidity uptrend continues to support the Bitcoin rally
📉 RSI Reset, Momentum Reloading
RSI (14) is at 47.82, a neutral level historically followed by bullish continuation in uptrends
Momentum is resetting, not breaking — the trend is still intact
🧵 SMA Ribbon & Golden Cross Setup
Multi-timeframe SMA ribbon (10–500) fully supports a bullish trend
A Golden Cross (SMA 50 > 200) is already confirmed
Historically, the last 4 Golden Crosses (after a Death Cross) led to an average gain of 89% into the next local ATH
This points directly toward a $135K–$145K scenario
🌑 Lunar Timing (Historically speaking)
Most Bitcoin all-time highs occurred within ±5 days of a new moon
The next critical date: September 7, 2025 – Strong Lunar Eclipse
Historically, lunar eclipses have resulted in 30% average corrections
⚠️ This is the second eclipse in a 4-eclipse cycle — potentially stronger impact (maybe 40%, 80K territory)
Expected dip target: $90K, aligning with macro support and Fibonacci confluence
😐 Sentiment Check: Fear & Greed Index
Current reading: 52 (Neutral)
Market is not overheated
Still plenty of room before peak greed or blow-off top behavior
🔮 Final Take:
All indicators — liquidity, momentum, cycle timing, and historical averages — suggest Bitcoin is not done yet. After a possible eclipse-driven correction into the $90K region, we likely enter the final euphoric push of this macro leg toward $135K–$145K.
📅 Key Dates:
23rd August new moon top out $135K (please consider a 5 day window 18th -28th August)
Next New Moon & Lunar Eclipse: September 7, 2025
Watch for volatility, alt rotation, BTC.D
💬 Agree or disagree? Drop a comment.
🔔 Follow for lunar/RSI/fib cycle updates!
Disclaimer:
The content provided in this post is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. I am not a financial advisor, and this is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any cryptocurrency, asset, or security. Always do your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Trading and investing involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
Bart Simpson Pattern Forming? We are in Greed? A possible Bart Simpson pattern is forming, which typically indicates a market top and reversal, with a retest of <$109,000 very likely. This pattern could also create a bearish head and shoulders formation, strongly suggesting a near-term top.
Trading volume continues to decrease, and ETF inflows are now negative, with an increasing volume of BTC on exchanges indicating that sell pressure is mounting. In this situation, a flash crash is also quite likely, so be cautious about where you place your limit sell orders and stop losses..
Both short and long positions are currently low, suggesting there is a lack of direction in the market, whether up or down. This situation often occurs at the end of a bull run. While a push upward is a possibility, based on my analysis, I anticipate that this pattern will break down with an 80:20 probability. However, Bitcoin often challenges expectations and is famously unpredictable. However due to all the media hype and the rolling of capital into Alt coins and the dominance dropping I do believe we are very near the end of the bull run. This is not financial advice (NFA).