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Chart Analysis: BTC / USDT (Weekly Timeframe)Pattern: EMA Retest (Potential Breakdown Risk) The chart shows Bitcoin (BTC) facing notable bearish pressure after recent highs. Price is currently testing the 50-week EMA, a historically important support zone that has previously triggered strong bullish rebounds. However, current momentum shows weakness as sellers dominate. Key Observations 🔹 Support Zone: Around $100,900 (50 EMA) — acting as critical dynamic support. 🔹 June Low Support: Near $98,200, the next major level to monitor. 🔹 Bearish Candle: BTC down nearly 8% for the week, showing strong selling pressure. 🔹 Bull Bear Power (BBP) Indicator: signaling that bearish strength outweighs bullish demand, and selling momentum remains strong. 🔹 Previous Bounces: The last two retests of the 50-week EMA (circled) led to solid recoveries, but this time, price action looks weaker and sentiment more cautious. Potential Move If BTC fails to hold above the 50-week EMA, further downside targets could be: 🎯 Target 1: $95,000 🎯 Target 2: $90,000 Conversely, a strong bullish reaction from the 50 EMA may spark a rebound phase and signal renewed accumulation. Summary: Bitcoin is currently at a critical support retest on the 50-week EMA. The Bear Power indicator suggests growing downside pressure, and a weekly close below $100K could confirm a deeper correction. Holding this zone, however, might preserve the broader uptrend. #Bitcoin #BTC #BTCUSDT #CryptoAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingView #CryptoTraders #CryptoMarket #BullBearPower
Short
by coinpediamarkets
1
Altcoins - A Shift in Plain SightOne thing that stands out lately is how several mid-caps and low-caps have started to drift above CRYPTOCAP:BTC on relative performance. When BTC sits in the middle of the pack while pockets of alts are steadily printing higher % moves, it usually hints at a rotation brewing. This kind of spread normally shows up when: - BTC cools off or ranges after a strong move - Liquidity becomes more comfortable chasing risk - Traders start searching for higher beta plays - Early bids creep in across multiple alt sectors at the same time You don’t need a breakout or a big narrative to see it — the relative strength alone is a decent tell. When alts cluster above BTC while the rest flatten out, it’s often the first sign that the market is prepping for an alt window. It doesn’t guarantee a full-blown alt season, but historically this type of structure gives a decent shot at short-term relief rallies or sector pops, especially if BTC remains stable and doesn’t nuke volatility across the board. For now, the key read is simple: If you see BTC is no longer the top performer in the group. When that happens, attention tends to rotate outward — and alts usually breathe.
by Tealstreet
BTC/USDT: Potential Uptrend and Buying OpportunityBitcoin is creating a buying opportunity as it continues to follow a clear uptrend channel. With support from macroeconomic factors and positive momentum from the cryptocurrency market, BTC/USDT has the potential to move upward strongly. The chart shows that BTC is currently moving within an uptrend channel, supported by the EMA lines. The recovery from the recent bottom around 86,700 USD and the price moving closer to 91,000 USD indicates that the market is starting to regain upward momentum. Looking at the current price levels, BTC is approaching an important resistance level at 95,500 USD. If this level is broken, the uptrend could extend, pushing the price to higher levels, potentially reaching 100,000 USD. However, if BTC fails to break through the 95,600 USD level and pulls back to test the 86,700 USD support, this would provide a good buying opportunity before continuing the uptrend. In summary , BTC/USDT is currently on a strong uptrend, and the buying opportunity remains as the price adjusts back to key support levels. Watch the 86,700 USD level as an ideal entry point to take advantage of the upcoming strong rally.
Long
by Paradise_Noir
13
BTC – Why this 25–30% drop doesn’t surprise me (what's next)After making a new ATH above $126k in early October, BTC is now trading around $90k – roughly 25–30% below the highs. On the 4H chart it’s a clean downtrend: lower highs, lower lows, and a break of the prior support zone in the mid-90k area. For me, this isn’t just “random FUD” – it’s a mix of macro, flows and positioning all lining up: ---- Macro / narrative shift ---- Earlier in the year BTC traded as a “Trump trade”. Recently that narrative has been shaken by tariff headlines and policy uncertainty, while capital attention also rotated toward AI after the Genesis Mission executive order. Less confidence = less appetite for chasing BTC at extremes. ----Spot ETF + on-chain flows --- U.S. spot BTC ETFs have seen around $3.8B of net outflows in November, removing a big source of steady demand. At the same time: A Satoshi-era wallet (~12k BTC, ≈$1.4B) moved coins to exchanges. On centralized venues (especially Binance) we’ve seen billions in net inflows, which usually means more inventory available to sell. ---- Leverage flush----- The violent October selloff already triggered a record liquidation event (≈$19B in 24h). What we’re seeing now looks like the second phase: spot selling + de-risking after the leverage was washed out. ----- Levels I’m watching on the 4H chart----- 1 - Resistance: 92–93k – former support, now capping bounces. 2 - Support: 80–82k – recent reaction zone, roughly around the 0.618 retrace of the whole bull leg. 3 - Lose 80k convincingly and 70k starts to open up as the next big “magnet” area; reclaim and hold above 93k and we can talk about a deeper relief rally. Not financial advice – just how I’m trying to connect price action with flows and macro instead of blaming every red candle on “whales” only.
by Kodologic
Falling Wedge on the 2H Timeframe: Is a Bullish Breakout BrewingHey TradingView community, I’ve been closely monitoring Bitcoin’s price action amid this volatile November, and the 2H chart is painting an intriguing picture. After a sharp correction from October’s all-time highs above $126,000, BTC has been grinding lower, but it’s now forming a classic falling wedge pattern – a setup that’s often a precursor to bullish reversals in downtrends.    Check out my screenshot below for the details. Key Observations from the Chart: • The Pattern: We’ve got a descending resistance line connecting the lower highs since mid-November, paired with an ascending support line from the recent lows around $88,000-$90,000. This compression is typical of a falling wedge, where selling pressure diminishes, setting the stage for an upside breakout. If it holds, we could see a snap higher, similar to how these patterns resolved in past cycles.   • Support and Resistance Levels: • Strong support cluster at $92,000-$92,500 (current price action bouncing here) and lower at $89,000-$90,000, which has acted as a demand zone multiple times this month.  • Overhead resistance at $96,000-$97,000 (prior highs), with a breakout potentially targeting $100,000-$104,000 based on the wedge’s measured move. On the flip side, a breakdown below $89,000 could open the door to $80,000 or even lower, as some analysts warn of deeper corrections.    • Momentum Indicators: Volume appears to be drying up in the wedge, which is bullish, and RSI is hovering near oversold levels (around 30-40 on higher TFs), hinting at a potential rebound. No major divergences yet, but watch for one on the next leg down. Market Context: November 2025 has been a bloodbath for Bitcoin, with a 33% drop from peaks amid overleveraged longs getting flushed and broader macro pressures.  However, on-chain data shows accumulation by whales, and BlackRock’s ETF flows are turning positive again, suggesting the selling might be exhausting.  Sentiment is numb – perfect for a contrarian setup. Interestingly, ETH/BTC is also breaking out of its own multi-month wedge, which could signal altcoin strength if BTC stabilizes.   Trading Idea: • Bullish Scenario: Long on a confirmed breakout above the upper trendline (~$94,000) with stops below $92,000. Targets: $97,000 (short-term), $105,000+ (extended).  • Bearish Scenario: If support cracks, short toward $85,000-$88,000, but I’d wait for confirmation to avoid whipsaws. • Risk Management: Always use 1-2% risk per trade. Volatility is high, so position size accordingly. This isn’t financial advice – DYOR! What do you think, bulls or bears in control? Drop your thoughts below. Let’s discuss! #BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #TechnicalAnalysis #FallingWedge #Trading
by Leveragemanic
Falling Wedge on the 2H Timeframe: Is a Bullish Breakout BrewingHey TradingView community, I’ve been closely monitoring Bitcoin’s price action amid this volatile November, and the 2H chart is painting an intriguing picture. After a sharp correction from October’s all-time highs above $126,000, BTC has been grinding lower, but it’s now forming a classic falling wedge pattern – a setup that’s often a precursor to bullish reversals in downtrends.    Check out my screenshot below for the details. Key Observations from the Chart: • The Pattern: We’ve got a descending resistance line connecting the lower highs since mid-November, paired with an ascending support line from the recent lows around $88,000-$90,000. This compression is typical of a falling wedge, where selling pressure diminishes, setting the stage for an upside breakout. If it holds, we could see a snap higher, similar to how these patterns resolved in past cycles.   • Support and Resistance Levels: • Strong support cluster at $92,000-$92,500 (current price action bouncing here) and lower at $89,000-$90,000, which has acted as a demand zone multiple times this month.  • Overhead resistance at $96,000-$97,000 (prior highs), with a breakout potentially targeting $100,000-$104,000 based on the wedge’s measured move. On the flip side, a breakdown below $89,000 could open the door to $80,000 or even lower, as some analysts warn of deeper corrections.    • Momentum Indicators: Volume appears to be drying up in the wedge, which is bullish, and RSI is hovering near oversold levels (around 30-40 on higher TFs), hinting at a potential rebound. No major divergences yet, but watch for one on the next leg down. Market Context: November 2025 has been a bloodbath for Bitcoin, with a 33% drop from peaks amid overleveraged longs getting flushed and broader macro pressures.  However, on-chain data shows accumulation by whales, and BlackRock’s ETF flows are turning positive again, suggesting the selling might be exhausting.  Sentiment is numb – perfect for a contrarian setup. Interestingly, ETH/BTC is also breaking out of its own multi-month wedge, which could signal altcoin strength if BTC stabilizes.   Trading Idea: • Bullish Scenario: Long on a confirmed breakout above the upper trendline (~$94,000) with stops below $92,000. Targets: $97,000 (short-term), $105,000+ (extended).  • Bearish Scenario: If support cracks, short toward $85,000-$88,000, but I’d wait for confirmation to avoid whipsaws. • Risk Management: Always use 1-2% risk per trade. Volatility is high, so position size accordingly. This isn’t financial advice – DYOR! What do you think, bulls or bears in control? Drop your thoughts below. Let’s discuss! #BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #TechnicalAnalysis #FallingWedge #Trading
by Leveragemanic
The Bill Williams Strategy ExplainedWe all know the market doesn’t always play nice, but the Bill Williams Fractal Indicator can help you read between the lines. If you're focused on fine-tuning your entries and exits, let’s break down how fractals can be a useful tool in your strategy. What is the Bill Williams Fractal Indicator? At its core, the Bill Williams Fractal Indicator is a technical analysis tool that identifies potential reversal points in the market. This indicator is based on the fractal definition by Bill Williams, who described fractals as price patterns that can be used to predict potential shifts in price direction. In simple terms, a fractal pattern consists of five consecutive bars or candlesticks on a chart. The middle bar of this pattern represents a local peak or trough, while the two bars on either side of it are smaller. A bullish fractal occurs when the middle bar is a higher high than the surrounding bars, and a bearish fractal appears when the middle bar is a lower low. Bill Williams Fractal Definition The Bill Williams Fractal is defined by a sequence of five consecutive bars. The middle bar represents the peak (for bearish fractals) or trough (for bullish fractals), surrounded by smaller bars on both sides. When price breaks the high (for bearish fractals) or low (for bullish fractals) of this central bar, it signals a potential breakout. How Does the Bill Williams Fractal Trading Strategy Work? The Bill Williams Fractal Strategy is a proven approach in crypto trading. Whether you're a beginner or an experienced trader, using the fractal strategy can provide valuable insights into potential market reversals and breakouts. By combining the Bill Williams Fractal Indicator with effective risk management, you can improve your trading edge. A common method is to use the 200 EMA to gauge the overall trend. If the price is below the 200 EMA, traders tend to focus on lower fractals and look for short opportunities, while if the price is above the 200 EMA, they focus on upper fractals and consider long trades. However, always remember to confirm the breakout of local levels for greater reliability in your trades. Master the Bill Williams Fractal Strategy The Bill Williams Fractal Strategy is a well-established method in crypto trading. Whether you're just starting out or you're an experienced trader, incorporating the fractal strategy can provide useful insights into potential market reversals and breakouts. By combining the Bill Williams Fractal Indicator with a solid risk management plan, you can enhance your trading approach. That said, remember that no strategy guarantees success. Fractal trading isn't about predicting the market with absolute certainty — it's about managing your entries and exits with precision and maintaining discipline. Always make sure to think critically and adapt to market conditions. So, when you spot a Bill Williams Fractal on your chart, use it as a guide, but always trust your analysis and approach. Happy trading!
Education
by WhiteBIT
How to use statistics and Pine Script to find a real edge.Are patterns really profitable, or are we just connecting random candles with a story? Most of us started trading by seeing patterns on the chart: double bottoms, pin bars, three green candles, “smart money” footprints… but do we have any evidence they actually works ? In this idea, I want to talk about the statistical significance of chart patterns, and how you can use simple statistics + Pine Script to move from “I think this works” to “I measured this edge.” ◼ Patterns are opinions until you define them “Strong bullish candle”, “nice rejection”, “liquidity grab” – these are subjective words. Statistics don’t work with feelings, they work with clear rules. Before testing anything, a pattern must be converted into something like: Candle 1: bullish, body size > X% of price Candle 2: low does not break previous low Close of Candle 3 > high of Candle 1 Once you can write your pattern as strict conditions (true/false), you can: Count how many times it appeared, measure what happens after it appears, and decide if it’s worth trading or not. That’s where Pine Script becomes a powerful research tool. ◼ What does “statistical edge” actually mean? A pattern is interesting if, when you look at many occurrences, you see a consistent tendency. For example, choose a simple question like: “When this pattern appears, where is the price on average after 10 bars?” If you track that over hundreds or thousands of samples, you’ll get: How often price is higher vs lower (win rate). The average move (for example, +0.8% after 10 bars). How volatile or noisy the results are. This doesn’t magically make a holy grail, but it tells you: Is this pattern better than random? Is it worth building a full strategy around it? Without this step, you’re basically trading based on screenshots and memories. ◼ Using Pine Script as your statistics magic tool. Even without going deep into code, the logic in Pine Script is simple, here is a simple example that you can do. A. Detect the pattern Whenever your conditions are true on a bar, mark that bar as a “pattern bar”. B. Look forward in time For each pattern bar, check the price after N bars (for example 5, 10, or 20 bars later). Calculate the % change between the pattern close and the future close. C. Aggregate the results Keep a running count: How many patterns triggered (sample size), How many ended positive (wins), The average % move after N bars. D. Interpret the numbers If you find that your pattern appeared 800 times, and after 10 bars: 62% of the time price was higher, Average move was +0.6%... then you have something much more concrete than “this looks good on the chart.” You don’t need to turn this into a full strategy immediately. Even a simple statistical study like this already filters out a lot of illusions. ◼ Common mistakes when testing patterns When you start doing this, it’s easy to fool yourself. A few traps to avoid: Tiny sample size : If your pattern only occurred 15 times and 11 of them were winners, that 73% win rate is probably not reliable. Statistics start to mean something with large samples (hundreds or thousands of events). Obsession with win rate : A 70% win rate means nothing if your winners are tiny and your losers are huge. You must look at: Average move, Distribution of outcomes (are there huge negative outliers?), How a realistic stop-loss / take-profit would behave. Sometimes a pattern with 52–55% win rate can be excellent if the average reward is larger than the average risk. Overfitting the past : If you keep changing rules until the backtest looks perfect, you are no longer discovering a pattern – you’re forcing the past to agree with you. A healthier flow is: Start with a simple, logical idea. Define it clearly in rules. Test it on one market / timeframe. Check it on other symbols and timeframes without changing the rules. If the edge survives in different environments, that’s much more interesting. Using this approach will save you a lot of time and money in losses, do your research before taking a trade, make sure you have the statistical evidence if you want to trade a pattern. i will be sharing more ideas on the use of Pinescript to improve your trading in the next days. make sure you follow me.
Education
by Kodologic
3
LONG TRADE (BTCUSDT)ENTRY: 92,300 STOP LOSS: 91,800 TP1: 93,100 TP2: 93,700 RRR: ~2.0:1 1m: Clear micro breakout above 92,200, followed by tight consolidation and bullish wick reclaim Structure formed a strong higher low → clean sniper entry near 92,300 Momentum candle confirms bullish intent 5m: Strong bullish engulfing breakout from prior chop zone Price reclaimed the 91,800–92,000 zone with follow-through Volume increase supports breakout structure 15m: Confirmed higher low → impulsive continuation Holding above recent key consolidation resistance (~91,800) Next clean target zone at prior rejection highs near 93,000–93,700
Long
by karamovski1314
1