BTCUSDT.3S trade ideas
my idea about btc in secound half of 2025Dear followers,
I’ve analyzed BTC’s recent price movements and on-chain indicators, and I’d like to share my outlook for the second half of 2025. Based on my technical and macroeconomic assessment, I anticipate a significant correction before a strong rebound later in the year.
Key Highlights:
Sell Zone: I expect BTC to reach around $108,000 during a bullish run, where I recommend taking profits and initiating a short position.
Correction Phase: Following the peak, I foresee a correction bringing BTC down to approximately $69,000. This presents a deep buy opportunity for those looking to accumulate at lower levels.
Target for Rebound: Post-correction, I project a strong rally towards $140,000, driven by renewed institutional interest and market fundamentals.
Trading Strategy:
Consider selling or reducing holdings near the $108K level.
Be prepared to accumulate during the dip around $69K.
Aim for the $140K target on the rebound, aligned with overall bullish momentum.
Please note that all trading involves risk, and it's essential to manage your positions carefully. Stay tuned for updates, and always do your own research before making trading decisions.
Let me know your thoughts or if you'd like a deeper analysis!
Will Bitcoin Break This Resistance – Or Is It a Bull Trap?MARKETSCOM:BITCOIN is once again at a critical resistance level, and the crypto world is split.
Some believe we’re gearing up for a new all-time high (ATH), while others argue the top is already in—and this could be a classic bull trap in disguise.
The key lies in how price reacts to this zone.
• A breakout above $109K would confirm a new ATH and likely spark another leg up.
• But a strong rejection here might signal that the rally was a trap, echoing patterns we’ve seen in past cycles.
My Take: We’re at a make-or-break moment. Confirmation from this level will decide the next big move.
What’s your take—breakout or bull trap?
Please support this idea with a LIKE👍 if you find it useful🥳
Happy Trading💰🥳🤗
$BTC, Bitcoin update: what is going on?🚨 Bitcoin Update: We've just seen a decent correction on CRYPTOCAP:BTC followed by a strong pump.
I’ve warned about this already — this pump is not organic. It's largely driven by institutions and Michael Saylor, using leverage.
📉 A healthy price movement should look like a staircase: move up, consolidate, reset the daily MACD, then push higher again.
Each rally should be followed by a slight pullback — that’s how sustainable trends are built.
❌ But this natural cycle is being disrupted.
Saylor and ETFs keep buying the top to prevent corrections. Some laugh and call it incompetence, but I believe it’s strategic.
These players don’t care about making money on trades.
Their goal is to inflate the value of their companies (or stock value), which are now heavily tied to Bitcoin’s price.
That’s why they don’t want BTC to consolidate.
Every time there's weakness, they step in to buy, preventing any pullback and forcing the price through resistances and fair value gaps.
🤖 The problem? Bots — which represent +80%+ of the trading volume — are not wired this way.
They sell when BTC is overbought and buy when it's oversold.
But with institutions disrupting this cycle, exchanges end up selling BTC, and whales scoop it up — leading to lower supply on exchanges.
Exchanges then have to buy BTC back at higher prices, sometimes even at a loss — often by printing billions in Tether (USDT) to compensate.
🎈 This entire mechanism is inflating Bitcoin’s price, exactly what Bitcoin maximalists want.
But it also kills the chance for an altseason, which usually comes after Bitcoin tops out.
📊 So what’s next?
Ideally, we get a consolidation to around $91K to avoid a major bearish divergence.
If BTC breaks below $90K, we could see GETTEX:82K — but given current conditions, that’s unlikely.
On the chart, RSI is high on daioly, Williams indicator is turning bearish and MACD too. These are all signs of a most needed consolidation. But as I explained, this is cancelled at the moment.
💰 Can institutions push BTC to a new all-time high?
Yes — they basically have unlimited capital and the money printer will turn back on by September.
But once again, altseason is postponed.
#Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoMarkets #MichaelSaylor #ETF #BTCAnalysis #Altseason #CryptoPump #MarketManipulation #BTCUpdate #Tether #CryptoWhales #DailyMACD #TechnicalAnalysis #CryptoInsights #Web3
Rare Signal Confirms Bitcoin "As Bullish As It Gets" Michael SayThis is a rare signal. Bitcoin hardly ever closes four consecutive weeks green. When this event happens, it means the market is as bullish as it gets.
How are some people still bearish when the market is closing green four weeks straight?
How is that even possible? Continued growth for so long... It is obvious is what I say.
» Bitcoin will soon be trading above 100K.
Bitcoin is moving above $120,000 in May and will hit around $130,000 or can be higher; do you agree?
The bulls are in—the bullish bias is confirmed Bitcoin has been growing for an entire month. The best part is that it is still early, let me explain. Notice the trading volume, it is still so very low. This means that nothing has happened yet, there will be a major advance... So strong, it will break all resistance in a matter of days.
» Bitcoin is bullish now. The Altcoins are bullish now.
You can be certain that we are going to see growth daily, weekly, monthly long-term.
Bullish is good.
Adapt to the market. If it is bullish, don't fight it just join the wave.
Bitcoin is bullish now. 1,000,000%.
Thank you for reading.
Namaste.
Bitcoin - Gearing Up for a Break Above Key ResistanceBitcoin has been grinding just below a key resistance zone, marked clearly around the 95,400–95,800 region. This area has seen multiple rejections in the past, making it a strong level where sellers are actively defending. Despite this, the broader trend structure remains intact to the upside, with price respecting a higher-timeframe ascending trendline and forming higher lows.
Consolidation Structure
Current price action shows a range developing just under resistance, with signs of weakening bullish momentum in the short term. We’ve had multiple wicks into the highs, but no convincing close above. On the flip side, there’s a visible support zone around 93,000–93,800, which has previously been used to absorb liquidity and fuel moves higher. This zone is confluenced by the ascending trendline from previous swing lows, offering a clear area for a liquidity sweep.
Bullish/Bearish Scenarios
In the short term, a pullback into the green support block looks likely. This would serve two purposes: sweep out late longs and provide fresh liquidity for a stronger bullish push. A dip into this level that still respects the trendline would maintain bullish structure despite violating the local higher low.
If price holds this zone and begins forming higher lows again, we could see an impulsive move into and possibly through the resistance. A clean break and close above 95,800 would likely open the door for much higher prices, as the level has capped upside multiple times and a breakout would likely trigger stop orders and breakout buying.
Failure to hold the green zone and the trendline, however, would break the short-term bullish structure and increase the probability of a deeper retracement, possibly invalidating the breakout thesis temporarily.
Price Target and Expectations
If the resistance breaks, the path toward 105,000 remains in play. That target aligns with the macro breakout structure and continuation from the trendline, supported by higher timeframe bullish sentiment.
What do do now
Watching for a pullback into 93,000–93,800 to see if liquidity is swept and support holds. No interest in chasing price into resistance. The key is to see how price reacts at the next low and then again at 95,800. If the pullback unfolds and buyers step in with momentum, that would provide the cleanest long opportunity into new highs.
Conclusion
The market looks poised for a short-term dip to rebalance liquidity before mounting a serious attempt to break a long-standing resistance zone. As long as the trendline is respected, the bullish structure is intact, and any sweep of local lows may offer a strong risk-reward entry for continuation toward 105k.
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BTC/USDT Weekly Analysis – Bullish Momentum ContinuesBitcoin continues to trade within a well-defined ascending green channel that started in early 2023. After a healthy consolidation near the midline of the channel, the price broke out of a wedge pattern, confirming renewed bullish momentum.
As long as BTC remains inside this channel and above key support levels, the trend remains bullish. Based on Fibonacci extension levels, the upcoming targets are:
$130,000 (1.618 extension)
$171,000 (2.618 extension)
$226,000 (3.618 extension)
If Bitcoin breaks above the previous all-time high of $109,588, we could see a strong rally toward the $130K–$170K zone by Fall 2025.
Bearish scenario: A confirmed breakdown below the midline and $95K support could lead to a deeper correction.
$BTC Update – Bearish Breakdown Alert! 🔻 🔻
BTC is breaking below the rising parallel channel on the 4H chart — a bearish signal suggesting potential downside pressure.
🔸 Price: $93,821
🔸 Channel Support Broken: ~ $94,500
🔸 Immediate Downside Target: $89,992
🔸 Stop Loss for Shorts: Above $95,715
⚠️ Warning: Avoid aggressive long entries unless BTC reclaims the channel support. Momentum is currently favoring the bears.
BTC – Waterfall?Price rejecting after Friday's blow-out.
Flow wise it's not that sellers stepped in, more like the one or few buyers that were buying with no regard for price, finally stopped buying. Price is mean reverting here, looking for balance again.
Notice how H4 trend stopped supporting price, and now became resistance over the weekend, after which price flushed for the first time.
A correction to mid-high 80s would be very healthy and the best case scenario for bulls imo. Reset momentum and positioning a bit while making a higher low.
If we yearly open and local lows hold here, we can look for a short setup.
Also note that the highs are pretty bad, a push into +95k might trigger a lot of short stops and give us a quick move above the highs. Be careful with getting or staying bullish there, unless price is slow grinding up above the high, it is very likely just a fake-out.
BTC (Post Weekly Close Update)BTC has seen a weekly close above the 93700 support, suggesting bullish strength and likely continuation if this level holds on the weekly. We remain bullish as long as 93700 is maintained; a drop below it would be the first SOW on the HTF, potentially targeting 89K–90K, and possibly 1D OB at 83K–85K. Technically, this remains a LH until the 99500 SH is convincingly reclaimed, ideally on a weekly close.
On the daily, however, we’ve observed the first SOW, closing below the SH at 95K after a rejection from the 1D supply zone, refined into MTF HOBs, where whales initially sold off aggressively. This isn’t alarming, but it warrants attention. With the SPX at resistance, the DXY at support, USDT.D closing the weekly well above the SL at 5.03, and TOTAL at resistance, these are signs of caution, in my view, despite the series of bullish news we’ve seen. That said, with the HTF remaining bullish, we’ll focus on exploiting LTF and MTF moves. The FOMC meeting on Wednesday could certainly bring volatility in the markets, particularly as BVOL24H and BVOL7D, as mentioned in the last update, are at support.👀
To further examine the weakness, note the contrast between the two horizontal ranges (grey boxes). The first range saw a BO followed by impulsive PA, smashing through the 90K key level. In contrast, the second range produced a BO but encountered an HTF supply, resulting in a notably weaker bounce compared to the first BO from the lower range. This could potentially manifest as a deviation if the price closes below the RL, making the 8D HOB at 89K–90K our next target.
On the LTF/ MTF, we’ve also seen a break below the TL, with the other resistance TL being respected, indicating further weakness. Although we haven’t yet seen HTF weakness, I believe a scalp-sized short from the 11H OB, refined into a 2H HOB at 95500 SH, makes sense with a tight invalidation, or from the MTF level around 97500, if provided. If the daily closes above 95500 again, I might consider a scalp long into the 1D supply for a potential DT or even the 100K psychological level.
BTC - Liquidity Mapping to Predict MovementAs a part II to my previous post on “Bull Market OR Bearish Retest?” - Here is a 2 day liquidity map on BTC’s chart.
I’m anticipating a sharp drop to 7,000 - why is this number significant?
There is a mass amount of liquidity in the chart down towards 7,000-10,000.
This liquidity is in the form of long stop loss orders.
In layman’s terms - the sell orders required to take price to this extreme low are already within the chart. It is a pre-set consequence to traders decisions in a market dominated by leveraged buys and sells.
If we consider what the “floor” price of BTC is (IE all long term secured holders) - we first have to seperate out the leveraging liquidity used in the futures market.
How much of the BTC market cap is injected liquidity from futures / derivatives? In my view, anything above 7,000.
This liquidity can flow in and out, and the business and function behind it isn’t affected. This liquidity is extremely fluid. It can drop 90,000 and rise 90,000 shortly after without any affect on the fundamental value of Bitcoin.
Sure there is a psychological consequence with perceived value and market stability - but the fact is, leveraged liquidity can enter the market and leave the market with no impact at all on the wallets of market makers.
Food for thought - happy trading.
DeGRAM | BTCUSD is continuing to rise📊 Technical Analysis
● Breakout above a multi-month triangle cleared the $95–98K zone. The price approached the long-term resistance line, steering price toward $108K.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● Strategy bought 1,895 BTC and Semler Scientific added 167 BTC, marking a surge in corporate buying.
● Arizona passed legislation to invest up to 10% of $31.5B state assets in Bitcoin.
● New Hampshire governor signs crypto reserve bill into law.
● Metaplanet reaches 5,555 Bitcoin milestone with latest 555 BTC buy.
✨ Summary
Bullish breakout confirmed. Key levels: ~ GETTEX:92K support, ~$93–95K resistance, and $108K target. Strong institutional/state buying underpins the uptrend.
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BTC | WHY Bitcoin is BULLISH | 2021 Fractal5 reasons why I say BTC is on it's way to a new ATH (All Time High) :
✅1️⃣ Support zone reclaimed
BTC has successfully reclaimed the support zone ABOVE the neckline resistance, a topic that I've been discussing over the past two weeks. If you'll recall, I pointed out either 70k or 90k. We have our answer:
✅2️⃣ Trendlines
Trendlines are BULLISH as BTC continues to make highger lows, a key indication of bullish sentiment even when a pullback is present:
✅3️⃣ Moving Averages
BTC has reclaimed ALL moving averages in the daily, a bullish indication:
✅4️⃣ Trend Based Indicators
A bullish flash in the weekly is a strong sign:
✅5️⃣ Fractal
It's possible that BTC plays out similarly to the previous ATH fractal from 2021:
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BINANCE:BTCUSDT
Whether it can be supported and rise at 102429.56 is the key
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(USDT.D 1M chart)
If USDT dominance is maintained below 4.97 or continues to decline, the coin market is likely to enter an upward trend.
(BTC.D 1M chart)
However, I think that for the altcoin bull market to begin, BTC dominance must be maintained below 55.01 or continue to decline.
If USDT dominance falls and BTC dominance rises, most altcoins are likely to gradually move sideways or show a downward trend.
In other words, it is highly likely that only BTC will continue to rise.
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(BTCUSDT 1M chart)
Based on the current position, in order to continue the uptrend, the price must be maintained above the Fibonacci ratio of 1.902 (101784.54).
If not, it is likely to fall to around the Fibonacci ratio of 1.618 (89050.0).
If the uptrend continues, the point to watch is whether it can renew the new high (ATH) this time.
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(1W chart)
It is rising after touching the 73499.86 area.
It is showing a large increase as it breaks through the HA-High indicator point of 97226.92 on the 1W chart.
Since the StochRSI indicator is expected to enter the overbought zone, it is highly likely that the future rise will be limited.
Therefore, the key is whether the price can be maintained above the left Fibonacci ratio of 1.902 (101784.54).
If it falls, you should check whether it is supported near 97226.92.
If it falls below 97226.92, you should check whether it is supported in the 1st and 2nd sections marked on the chart.
You should check where the StochRSI 80 indicator is formed when the next candle is created.
The StochRSI 80 indicator on the 1M chart is formed at the 102429.56 point.
Therefore, we need to check whether the StochRSI 80 indicator point on the 1W chart is formed around the 102429.56 point.
-
(1D chart)
Since the StochRSI indicator on the 1D chart is located below the midpoint, we need to focus on finding a buying point.
With this rise, the StochRSI indicator is expected to rise above the midpoint.
If the StochRSI indicator is located above the midpoint, we need to focus on finding a selling point.
Therefore, the point of interest is whether the price can be maintained around the right Fibonacci ratio 1.902 (101784.54) as we pass through the next volatility period around May 19.
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Among the interpretation methods of the OBV indicator, there is an interpretation method that there is a possibility of an increase or decrease when the previous high or low is broken.
This time, it showed an upward break through the upper line of the OBV and broke through the lower line of the previous OBV.
In other words, it showed an upward break through the A section.
If this upward break through the B section is continued, it is expected to renew the ATH.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful transaction.
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- This is an explanation of the big picture.
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire section of BTC.
I rewrote the previous chart to update it by touching the Fibonacci ratio section of 1.902 (101875.70) ~ 2 (106275.10).
(Previous BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been following a pattern since 2015.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year bull market and faces a 1-year bear market.
Accordingly, the bull market is expected to continue until 2025.
-
(Current BTCUSD 12M chart)
Based on the currently written Fibonacci ratio, it is displayed up to 3.618 (178910.15).
It is expected that it will not fall again below the Fibonacci ratio of 0.618 (44234.54).
(BTCUSDT 12M chart)
I think it is around 42283.58 when looking at the BTCUSDT chart.
-
I will explain it again with the BTCUSD chart.
The Fibonacci ratio ranges marked in the light green boxes, 1.902 (101875.70) ~ 2 (106275.10) and 3 (151166.97) ~ 3.14 (157451.83), are expected to be important support and resistance ranges.
In other words, it seems likely to act as a volume profile range.
Therefore, in order to break through this section upward, I think the point to watch is whether it can rise with support near the Fibonacci ratios of 1.618 (89126.41) and 2.618 (134018.28).
Therefore, the maximum rising section in 2025 is expected to be the 3 (151166.97) ~ 3.14 (157451.83) section.
To do that, we need to look at whether it can rise with support near 2.618 (134018.28).
If it falls after the bull market in 2025, we don't know how far it will fall, but considering the previous decline, we expect it to fall by about -60% to -70%.
So, if the decline starts near the Fibonacci ratio 3.14 (157451.83), it seems likely that it will fall to around Fibonacci 0.618 (44234.54).
I will explain more details when the downtrend starts.
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Has Bitcoin Begun Its Final D-Leg Correction?Bitcoin could be starting the final stage of a larger corrective pattern — known as the D-leg — which often follows major trends in the market. This kind of structure typically forms after a big move up, and signals that the market might need a deeper reset before continuing higher.
Recently, Bitcoin was rejected from a key resistance zone around $98,300, which aligns with several technical indicators including a major daily support/resistance flip, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, and the Point of Control (a price level with the most traded volume). This rejection has sparked concerns that a local top may already be in for this cycle.
Why This Matters:
If Bitcoin fails to hold its current support levels, we could see a continuation to the downside, with targets potentially reaching sub-$60K levels. This aligns with a broader corrective pattern some analysts call an ABCD structure — where the D-leg often marks the final leg down before the next larger trend can begin.
This scenario becomes more likely if the current support zone breaks down, which would confirm a shift in market structure. Until then, there’s still room for price to range or attempt another retest of the highs, but caution is warranted.
What’s Next:
Watch for a breakdown below the recent lows — this would strongly suggest the D-leg is underway.
A confirmed breakdown would likely lead to a longer correction over the coming weeks or months.
However, if Bitcoin reclaims resistance above $98,300, this bearish outlook could be invalidated and the structure may reset.
Right now, we’re at a major decision point in the market. While the signs are stacking in favor of a deeper pullback, it’s important to wait for price to confirm with structure and volume before acting on it.
BTC at Crucial Retest Zone — Bearish Setup in Play!Price Action Alert on #BTC/USDT (4H Timeframe)
#Bitcoin recently broke down from a rising wedge, a classically bearish pattern. Alongside this, we've also identified a bearish RSI divergence, further validating potential downside momentum.
Key Observations:
🔺 Rising wedge breakdown confirmed
📉 Bearish divergence on RSI (4H)
🔁 Price is now retesting the broken wedge from below (a classic bear signal!)
⛔️ Still holding above a key horizontal support — watching for a clean break here for confirmation
📌 Bearish Trade Setup (Waiting for Confirmation):
Entry: Below key support zone (marked on chart)
Target 1: $84,300
Target 2: $75,000
Stop-loss: Above wedge breakout point (100,500)
💼 Always follow proper risk management!
🧠 Why This Matters:
The combination of pattern breakdown, bearish divergence, and a retest zone is a powerful signal — but patience is key. We wait for full confirmation (support break) before executing any short trade.
📣 What do you think — will #BTC break the support or bounce back? Drop your thoughts in the comments! 🗣️
If you found this analysis helpful, like, comment, and follow for more real-time setups! 🚀
#BTC #Bitcoin #CryptoAnalysis #PriceAction #Bearish #ShortSetup #RisingWedge #TechnicalAnalysis #CryptoTrading #TradingView