Analytics: market outlook and forecasts
WHAT HAPPENED?
Last week, the medium-term downtrend continued, and we reached the next significant volume support zone - $88,000-$82,000.
On November 21, the daily candle closed at the largest volume, comparable to the dump on October 10, 2025. However, there was no equally significant price movement, which indicates an active struggle between buyers and sellers within the framework of this candle.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN: OR NOT?
At the moment, there is an initial rebound. However, consumer activity remains weak so far, so a retest of the lower levels is possible. There are strong volume zones above, which may become targets for buyers this week.
We expect a test of the $84,000-$82,000 volume anomaly zone, either from current prices or after the test of the first resistance zone of $90,000-$92,300 (volume zone). Then we can expect a more confident resumption of buys with the potential to move towards $95,000.
If buys from the designated zone don’t resume, a test of the $74,600 level is likely with the prospect of reaching lower price levels.
Buying Zones
$97,000–$93,000 (high-volume zone)
$88,000–$82,000 (high-volume zone)
Selling Zones
$101,000–$104,000 (accumulated volume)
$105,800–$106,600 (local resistance)
$109,500–$110,700 (accumulated volume)
$112,400–$113,300 (accumulated volume)
$114,700–$115,700 (accumulated volume)
$120,900–$124,000 (high-volume zone)
IMPORTANT DATES
Macroeconomic developments this week:
• Tuesday, November 25, 7:00 a.m. (UTC) — publication of German GDP for the third quarter of 2025;
• Tuesday, November 25, 13:30 (UTC) — publication of the basic index of retail sales and their volume, as well as the US producer price index for September;
• November 25, Tuesday, 3 p.m. (UTC) — publication of the CB U.S. Consumer Confidence index for November;
• November 26, Wednesday, 1 a.m. (UTC) — announcement of the New Zealand interest rate decision;
• Wednesday, November 26, 10:00 a.m. (UTC) — UK autumn budget forecast;
• Wednesday, November 26, 13:30 (UTC) — publication of US GDP for the third quarter of 2025, as well as the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States;
• Wednesday, November 26, 15:00 (UTC) — publication of the basic price index of personal consumption expenditures and sales data new housing in the USA in September;
• Friday, November 28, 13:00 (UTC) — German consumer price index for November is published.
*This post is not financial recommendation. Make decisions based on your own experience.
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