BTCUSDT.P trade ideas
Bitcoin Bullish, but a Correction Might Be AheadHello traders!
Obviously, Bitcoin has a strong bullish momentum.
However, after noticing a minor shift in market structure, we may see a correction toward the 112,000 area.
If the supply area doesn’t break, we can look for a sell position here.
#BTC #Bitcoin
A bearish 12 Month candle could be in the cardsBitcoin made an yearly high of 20% after 6 months in on the yearly candle
This does not make me feel great about the rest of the year
a clear sell signal would be an higher timeframe close under 100k after an upthrust to new ath around 110k - 120k
around 50k-54k for me is an good buy level to build an longterm position:
0.382 fib retracement for an primary 1-2 wave
0.500 fib retracement from the 25k low
0.886 fib retracement from 49k low
50% pullback from current high to projected low
where will bitcoin go ? i don't know, but i do know where i want to buy and when i want to sell
BTC/USDT (1H) Market Analysis – July 19
BTC is hovering just below the 200 EMA, having recently bounced off it with a small recovery candle.
The recent downtrend from the $121K peak has flattened, and price is forming a potential short-term base above the $117K support.
There's low-volume chop, suggesting indecision or a pause before the next leg.
Key Technical Levels
Support zone: $117,200 – $117,500 (200 EMA + recent wick support)
Resistance zone: $118,500 – $119,000 (cluster of short EMAs + prior supply)
Breakout level: $119,500 (for a bullish continuation)
Breakdown level: $116,800 (for further downside)
Indicator Insights
RSI: 42.86 and curling up slightly → shows a potential recovery attempt but still below neutral.
QQE MOD: Deep in bearish territory (–8.53), but we’re seeing the first signs of easing negative momentum.
ATR: 681 and gradually falling → declining volatility, aligning with consolidation.
Bias & Scenarios
Bullish Case:
If BTC holds above the 200 EMA and breaks above $118.5K with volume, we could see a retest of the $119.5K–$120K zone.
RSI breaking 50 and QQE printing lighter red would confirm upward momentum.
Bearish Case:
Failure to reclaim EMAs and a drop below $117K could send price toward $116K or even back to the breakout base at $114.5K.
Watch for volume spikes on red candles and RSI breaking back under 40.
DONT MISS OUT: BITCOIN'S PATH TO NEW HIGHS FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Bitcoin has a fixed supply cap of 21 million coins. Approximately every four years, the reward miners receive for verifying new blocks (and thus introducing new Bitcoin into circulation) is cut in half in an event known as "halving." The most recent halving occurred in April 2024, reducing the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.
Why it supports $122,000: Historically, every halving event has been followed by a significant bull run in the months to a year (or more) afterward. This is a classic supply and demand principle: reduced supply with consistent or increasing demand tends to drive prices up. The 2024 halving has further tightened the supply of newly minted Bitcoin, creating a scarcity effect that proponents believe will inevitably push the price higher.
Macroeconomic Tailwinds and "Digital Gold" Narrative:
Argument: In times of economic uncertainty, inflation, or devaluing fiat currencies, investors often seek "safe-haven" assets. Bitcoin has increasingly been viewed as "digital gold" due to its decentralized nature, scarcity, and resistance to censorship.
Why it supports $122,000: If global economic conditions continue to be volatile, with concerns about inflation and government spending, more investors may turn to Bitcoin as a store of value. This growing narrative, coupled with increasing accessibility, could lead to a substantial influx of capital from those looking to preserve wealth, further driving up the price.
Important Caveats:
Volatility: Bitcoin is notoriously volatile. While these arguments support an upward trend, significant pullbacks and corrections are always possible.
Regulatory Risk: Shifting regulatory landscapes in various countries could impact Bitcoin's price.
Competition: The broader crypto market is constantly evolving, with new technologies and competitors emerging.
Black Swan Events: Unforeseen global events or major security breaches could negatively affect the market.
Always conduct your own thorough research and consider your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.
Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin – A Staggered Anti-Currency Rotation?There seems to be a complex yet recurring relationship between Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin during anti-currency phases (when fiat weakens).
First Leg – Gold Leads
Gold typically leads the first leg, breaking out to new highs. Silver follows but lags—trending up without breaking major resistance. During this phase, the Gold/Silver ratio expands.
Second Leg – Silver Takes Over
Eventually, Silver breaks resistance and becomes the second leg leader. As it outperforms Gold, the Gold/Silver ratio contracts back to mean.
Bitcoin, during this time, is usually bottoming or entering Stage 2 (early uptrend). This time, it has already broken resistance but is rising slower than in past cycles.
Third Leg – Bitcoin Dominates
As Gold and Silver peak and begin to correct, Bitcoin accelerates, often making new all-time highs (ATH).
This staggered rotation played out during the 2018–2022 cycle. Let's see if history rhymes in this cycle.
Bitcoin (BTC): Bullish Start of Week | Aiming For $150KChoppy weekends resulted in a bullish Monday. Once again, we are seeing strong buyside dominance at the start of the week, which is indicating a potential new ATH that we might be going for.
Now as the price is at the $119-120K zone, we are most likely going for a retest today of the current ATH, where we are going to look for some kind of breakout and upward movement.
Markets are on fire, so stay informed and do not FOMO—there will always be plenty of opportunities to gain something from markets, but to lose all it takes is just one stupid decision, so don't FOMO.
Swallow Academy
BTC #Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) 1-hour chartThis Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) 1-hour chart shows a bearish breakout from a symmetrical triangle or rising wedge pattern. The breakout is confirmed by a strong red candle below the lower trendline, suggesting downward momentum.
Pattern: Bearish wedge/triangle.
Breakout Level: ~118,000 USDT.
Target Zone: Around 112,511 USDT, marked as a potential reversal area.
Resistance: ~119,315 USDT.
This indicates bearish sentiment in the short term unless BTC quickly reclaims the upper trendline.
Thanking you
BTC Pullback Near 200 EMA – Bounce or Breakdown?Bitcoin is currently undergoing a measured pullback after its recent push toward $121K. On the 1H timeframe, price has tested the 200 EMA and held so far, forming a short-term support near $117K. This aligns with a prior consolidation area and is showing some early signs of bottoming.
On the 4H chart, price is also consolidating after a healthy run-up. While momentum has cooled, BTC remains above key moving averages. RSI is approaching mid-range levels (~48), and the QQE is lightly bearish but not aggressive.
Key Zones to Watch:
Support (1H + 4H confluence):
🔹 $117,000 – $117,300 (EMA 200 + historical pivot + bounce region)
Resistance/Breakout Target:
🔹 $118,500 – $119,500 → Area where shorter EMAs are clustered
🔹 $121,000 → Previous local high
Take Profit (if bounce plays out):
🔹 TP1: $119,200
🔹 TP2: $120,800
🔹 TP3: $122,800
Scenarios:
Bullish Bias (if price reclaims $118.5K+):
Reclaiming EMAs and printing higher lows would suggest continuation.
RSI crossing 50 and increasing volume would confirm short-term bullish momentum.
Bearish Bias (if $117K breaks):
Breakdown from this base could send BTC to test $116K or even back to $114.5K range.
Look for volume spike + MACD/QQE confirmation for further downside.
Summary:
BTC remains in a constructive uptrend on higher timeframes. The current pullback is still within normal range, especially while price respects the 200 EMA on both 1H and 4H charts. This is a key decision zone—bulls want to see a reclaim of $118.5K, while bears need to break below $117K to take control.
$1.5 Billion ETF Inflows Could Push Bitcoin Price 4% to New ATHBINANCE:BTCUSDT is currently trading at $118,325, facing resistance at the $120,000 level. This resistance is crucial for Bitcoin if it wants to break back to its ATH of $123,218 . The 4.4% gap to reach the ATH indicates potential for growth, but Bitcoin needs to secure support above $120,000 for this to happen.
This week, spot BINANCE:BTCUSDT exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw over $1.5 billion in inflows , a significant portion of which occurred in the last 48 hours during Bitcoin’s dip.
The influx of institutional money highlights that investors are confident in Bitcoin’s potential despite the market cooling. If this trend persists, it could propel BINANCE:BTCUSDT price upward, as institutional support provides stability.
If BINANCE:BTCUSDT can hold above $120,000 and push past $122,000, it could continue its ascent toward new all-time highs. The current market conditions and ETF inflows support a bullish outlook, with a significant chance of breaking the resistance.
However, the risk of profit-taking remains , which could lead to a price drop. If BINANCE:BTCUSDT faces selling pressure, it could fall back to $115,000 , erasing a portion of recent gains. This would invalidate the bullish thesis, causing Bitcoin to retest lower support levels.
BTC - intradayA lot of volatility, which is nice for trading either way.
The high we set on Monday morning gave a very strong rejection, but in the end we simply took out the weekend lows, then reclaimed and are now grinding higher into the imbalance we left.
Price is now coming into the first resistance, so we watch for either a reversal or see if price keeps grinding through this orderblock, in which case we expect the higher imbalance also to get taken out.
If that happens, I expect a lower high which creates bad highs, then into some ranging price action before we sweep the highs again. (a range trader can dream, rigth?)
For today, look for pullbacks into the blue zone. If the slow grind trend is strong, somewhere between the 0.618 and 0.382 is where I'd expect a reaction if we flush a bit at nyo. We have confluence with H4 trend, trendline, fibs and range poc here.
For now all the m1 lows are holding on low timeframe, I wouldn't get overly bearish or even looking for hedges before that breaks.
If price rejects here and loses the poc, look for a sweep of the lows first. There is a lot of OI build up and I expect some longs to be flushed, but that's no excuse to get bearish at the lows before they break. Just like yesterday, price reclaimed the low immediately, that was your moment to long.
BTC/USDT: Define Your Next Winning MoveHere's the reality: While others panic and second-guess, successful traders recognize the blueprint when they see it.
The Setup That Separates Winners From Losers
Two major support zones (marked in blue) tell the complete story. My footprint CDV analysis confirms what institutional money already knows - these levels aren't suggestions, they're battle lines.
Your Proven Path Forward
Zone 1: Primary accumulation target - where smart money loads up
Zone 2: Final defense line - where rebounds launch
The Choice Is Simple
Execute at these levels with precision, or watch from the sidelines as others capitalize. My track record speaks for itself - these aren't hope-based predictions, they're data-driven opportunities.
What Happens Next
Follow this blueprint: You position at support, manage risk precisely, and capture the inevitable bounce that follows institutional accumulation.
Ignore it: Watch others profit while you chase price higher later.
Bottom Line
The market has drawn the map. The footprint data confirms the plan. Your success depends on one thing: execution when opportunity knocks.
The zones are marked. The analysis is complete. The choice is yours.
Bitcoin Liquidity updateCRYPTOCAP:BTC
📄 Update on liquidity movement and key liquidity cluster points
◀️ Summary of the first movement: A sale occurred at 121826 and a break happened at 117612, after which liquidity was collected between 116 - 115
◀️ After collecting liquidity, we mentioned that breaking 117612 would allow testing 119723, and that is what happened
⭕️ Now, a selling range has formed between 120813 - 121826, which is clear on the price chart and the way it bounced down
🟣 The current movement is confined between 118398 - 117612
📄 Regarding trading ideas:
⭕️ The thought here is to buy between 11600 - 114813 if a break occurs at 117612 and trading starts below it
⭕️ The second idea, in case this break does not happen, is to wait for confirmation of trading above 118398, and in this case, it's preferable to wait until Monday
BTC trading planBINANCE:BTCUSDT A full day has passed since my last update. We’re now witnessing a clear bull-to-bear reversal in market sentiment. The hourly RSI is deeply oversold, but the 4-hour RSI still has room to drop further. Price is aggressively targeting the weekly pivot at $115,334. With the local trendline and the $119K level broken, the orange scenario is now in motion. A short pullback is possible before the next leg down toward $110K. For details, see yesterday’s video
Trade safe and stay adaptive