CADUSD trade ideas
USD/CADThis is a trade setup for USD/CAD, based on volume and trend analysis.
Entry Price: 1.38614
Stop-Loss (SL): 1.38514
Take-Profit (TP): 1.38864
The trade is intended to be executed instantly at the mentioned price, in alignment with both volume behavior and the current trend direction.
Disclaimer: This setup is shared purely for backtesting purposes and to document trade ideas. It is not financial advice. Always perform your own analysis before making any trading decisions.
USD/CAD potential leg up setuppotential setup. Trade Plan following Road Map:
-wait for pull back zone to enter.
-pull trigger on reversal signal. monitor declining volume as confirmation- "a spike in volume for pull back ending
-target 1 zone - 1.40 area. SL lock in +/- 50% of gains at key areas of structure on 15 minute chart.
-target 2 zone - on route to T2Z use 14 ema and 34 ema as trend continuation on 5 minute and 15 minute chart - key structure: SL zone
USDCAD resistance breakout at 1.3767The USDCAD remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action showing signs of a corrective pullback within the broader uptrend.
Support Zone: 1.3730 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level.
A bullish rebound from 1.3730 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at:
1.3830 – initial resistance
1.3860 – psychological and structural level
1.3890 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart
Bearish Scenario:
A confirmed break and daily close below 1.3730 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward:
1.3716 – minor support
1.3690 – stronger support and potential demand zone
Outlook:
Bullish bias remains intact while the WTI Crude holds above 1.3730. A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
USDCAD Rebound Steadies Ahead of BOC and FOMC MeetingsAligned with the DXY holding above the 96 support and approaching the 100-resistance, the USDCAD is maintaining a rebound above the 1.3540 level.
It has maintained a hold beyond the boundaries of a contracting downtrend across 2025 and is aiming for the 1.38 resistance to confirm a steeper bullish breakout.
A sustained move above 1.38, which connects lower highs from June and July, while the RSI holds below the 50 neutral line, could extend gains toward the 1.40 level.
From the downside, should the breakout above 1.38 fail, the pair may remain trapped within the consolidation range extending from June, with initial support seen at 1.3580.
Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
USDCAD Bounce May Face Strong ResistanceUSDCAD is attempting to bounce back, supported by a stronger U.S. dollar index. The recent trade deals with Japan and the Eurozone have prompted traders to position more favorably toward the dollar. The sharp decline in EURUSD is also putting upward pressure on USDCAD.
This week will be crucial for both the U.S. and Canada, with a flood of economic data and major central bank events ahead. The Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada are both expected to hold rates at tomorrow’s meetings. Although pressure from Trump is unlikely to sway FOMC members into a rate cut, the new trade deals do reduce policy uncertainty, which could increase the likelihood of a rate cut in September. Any minor hint of this scenario will likely be interpreted as dovish by the markets.
The Bank of Canada, in contrast, is expected to remain firmly dovish as tariffs continue to weigh heavily on growth. Meanwhile, Trump’s recent comments regarding Canadian tariffs are unlikely to boost economic confidence in Canada, although Carney is actively pushing for an improved trade agreement.
Aside from central bank meetings, both countries will release GDP data this week. Canada’s economy is expected to contract by 0.1% in May, with GDP figures arriving alongside employment change and the U.S. PCE report. A strong surprise from Canada could help limit the effect of the rising dollar index on USDCAD.
In the U.S., GDP, PCE, and payrolls data will make this one of the most unpredictable weeks for markets in recent months.
USDCAD is currently testing its 100-week moving average. The immediate resistance levels are 1.3786 and 1.3850, both marked as “1” in the chart as the first resistance area. If dollar index strength continues after the initial shock, the second resistance zone defined by the May top and the 50-week moving average will become the next target.
If dollar dominance persists in the medium term, the ultimate target would be 1.4170. This area is likely to act as strong resistance, as it includes the midpoint of the March to July pullback, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the 2021 to 2025 uptrend, and the February dip.
As long as this resistance holds, any upward moves can be considered potential selling opportunities. However, it remains uncertain which of the resistance levels will mark the top.
USDCAD – Bullish OutlookThe US Dollar continues to show strength against the Canadian Dollar. Price closed firmly at 1.3700, signaling strong bullish momentum and potential continuation.
📈 Trade Idea: Long USDCAD
🔹 Entry: 1.3700
🔹 Targets:
First Target: 1.3800
Second Target: 1.3900
Extended Target: 1.4000+
Strong USD fundamentals, coupled with technical strength on higher timeframes, support further upside in this pair. Watching for bullish follow-through and potential breakout above recent resistance.
USD/CAD Daily Chart AnalysisFrom the bigger picture we see that sellers are dominating the market. Currently, price looks to be in a correction phase and twice has found resistance at the 1.37740 price point.
If price finds resistance there again, we may see a breakout and another bearish impulse.
If you agree with this analysis, look for a trade that meets your strategy rules.
USDCAD Wave Analysis – 25 July 2025
- USDCAD rising inside sideways price range inside
- Likely to reach resistance level 1.3800
USDCAD currency pair recently reversed from the key support level 1.3575 (which is the lower boundary of the sideways price range inside which the price has been trading from June).
The upward reversal from the support level 1.3575 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star.
USDCAD currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 1.3800 (upper border of this sideways price range, top of wave (2)).
USDCAD SELLUSD/CAD rallies to 1.3680 as the market focuses on a hawkish Fed
The US Dollar extends its recovery for the second consecutive day, supported by strong US data. Upbeat US business activity and Jobless Claims support the Fed's "wait and see" rhetoric. In Canada, the weak Retail Sales data keep hopes for a BoC rate cut alive.
The year will be politically marked by Trump’s return to the White House. A Republican government is seen as positive for financial markets, but Trump’s pledge to cut taxes and impose tariffs on foreign goods and services may introduce uncertainty to both the political and economic landscape.
Canada’s political crisis peaked in late 2024 with a no-confidence vote against Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, leading to snap elections and a weakened Liberal minority government. Policy uncertainty and economic challenges dominate 2025’s outlook, raising concerns over market stability and investor confidence.
The BoC is set to continue easing interest rates through 2025, at least at a faster pace than the Fed is expected to, which could apply pressure on CAD’s already-rising rate differential.
SUPPORT 1.36991
SUPPORT 1.36739
SUPPORT 1.36495
RESISTANCE 1.37346
RESISTANCE 1.37455