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6C1! trade ideas

Ways to improve chart reading part 3 - Support and ResistanceThis is the third in a series of articles looking at some key tools and different practices that can improve your chart reading skills and your trading overall. Previously we talked about volume and its role in chart analysis. Still, there is one more feature of volume that can help traders to avoid critical mistakes as well as find good entries to their trades. Traditional technical analysis looks at tops, bottoms of the market, channel lines, trend lines, Fibonacci levels etc to identify support or resistance, but does not consider bars with significant volume at all. At the same time the tops, bottoms and sometimes the closes of bars with relatively big volume (called Ultra-High Volume or UHV in Volume Spread Analysis) create very serious support/resistance to the price moves. In many cases the professionals prefer to test areas where Ultra-High Volume has appeared for supply or demand before the price pushes away significantly from there, as its presence may impact price movement and cost them a lot. Look at the chart for Canadian Dollar futures (CME:6C1!) above. First an Ultra-High Volume bar appears on February 16th 2023 at 15:00 UTC+1 time zone. The top and bottom of this bar (marked by the blue dashed lines) create significant resistance. To push the price above it activity (volume) will be required. Later, on February 17th 2023 at 15:00, another huge volume bar appears showing weakness. The effort on this bar was enough to move the price through the 0.7419 level (the bottom of the previous UHV bar) and seeing the change in the direction of the moving average to the up side, many traders may start to consider long trades around 03:00 on February 20th. Without looking at volume on the bars, they won’t be able to recognize the level of 0.7439 (the top of the first UHV bar in the picture) as a potential resistance. In fact, the volume diminished there, making it impossible for the price to go higher. Then we can see further selling around UHV tops and bottoms in the 0.7419-0.7439 range of the first UHV bar in the picture on February 21st at 9:00 and at 13:00 . The bottom of the 14:00 bar on February 21st (0.7392) creates another level of resistance and again, the price respects it drifting around for some time. Any attempts to go above (as on February 22nd at 13:00 or 19:00) have met more professional selling (the bottom of February 17th 15:00 bar). The VSA methodology teaches us how to identify the movements of the professionals so that we can follow them. From the above example you can see how price acts around the tops and bottoms of UHV bars. This confirms bars with big volume are very important to consider because either the presence or absence of professional activity there may reveal what smart money are planning to do. We can therefore trade accordingly.
CME:6C1!
by Trade-to-Win_from_Tradeguider
MICRO CAD/USD FUTURES (MCD1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Drop Resistance : 0.7696 Pivot: 0.7645 Support : 0.7559 Preferred Case: On the H4, with price trendline and moving below the ichimoku indicator,we have a bearish bias that price may drop from pivot at 0.7645 where the swing low support is. Should price break pivot structure, we would expect bearish momentum to carry price to 1st support at 0.7559 where the1st support and 100% fibonacci projection are. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could rise to 1st resistance at 0.7696 in line with 23.6% fibonacci retracement . Fundamentals: During the Jackson Hole symposium, Fed Chair Powell indicated that more rate hikes were coming and that the Feds could continue lifting rates sharply for some time as it combats to bring inflation towards its target level, which made DXY strengthened and gained against all the other currencies.
CME_MINI:MCD1!
by Tickmill
MICRO CAD/USD FUTURES (MCD1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Drop Resistance : 0.7696 Pivot: 0.7645 Support : 0.7559 Preferred Case: On the H4, with price trendline and moving below the ichimoku indicator,we have a bearish bias that price may drop from pivot at 0.7645 where the swing low support is. Should price break pivot structure, we would expect bearish momentum to carry price to 1st support at 0.7559 where the1st support and 100% fibonacci projection are. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could rise to 1st resistance at 0.7696 in line with 23.6% fibonacci retracement. Fundamentals: During the Jackson Hole symposium, Fed Chair Powell indicated that more rate hikes were coming and that the Feds could continue lifting rates sharply for some time as it combats to bring inflation towards its target level, which made DXY strengthened and gained against all the other currencies.
CME_MINI:MCD1!Short
by Genesiv
CANADIAN DOLLAR FUTURES (6C1!), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseType : Bullish Rise Resistance : 0.77970 Pivot: 0.77300 Support : 0.76465 Preferred Case: On the H4, with prices moving within an ascending channel and above the ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from the pivot at 0.77300 where the overlap support is to the 1st resistance at 0.77970 where the swing high resistance is. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could break pivot structure and drop to the 1st support at 0.76465 where the overlap support, 61.8% fibonacci retracement and 78.6% fibonacci projection are. Fundamentals: Stronger than anticipated Canadian sales data on Friday helped to balance out the DXY's volatility , allowing USDCAD to trade in consolidation below 1.29. The USDCAD is projected to trade lower because to the recent drop in energy prices and the weakening in the DXY . This gives us a weak bullish view of the Canadian Dollar .
CME:6C1!
by Tickmill
CANADIAN DOLLAR FUTURES (6C1!), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseType : Bullish Rise Resistance : 0.77970 Pivot: 0.77300 Support : 0.76465 Preferred Case: On the H4, with prices moving within an ascending channel and above the ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from the pivot at 0.77300 where the overlap support is to the 1st resistance at 0.77970 where the swing high resistance is. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could break pivot structure and drop to the 1st support at 0.76465 where the overlap support, 61.8% fibonacci retracement and 78.6% fibonacci projection are. Fundamentals: Stronger than anticipated Canadian sales data on Friday helped to balance out the DXY's volatility, allowing USDCAD to trade in consolidation below 1.29. The USDCAD is projected to trade lower because to the recent drop in energy prices and the weakening in the DXY. This gives us a weak bullish view of the Canadian Dollar.
CME:6C1!Long
by Genesiv
CANADIAN DOLLAR FUTURES (6C1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Momentum Resistance : 0.77305 Pivot: 0.76450 Support : 0.75615 Preferred Case: On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud and within the descending channel, we have a bearish bias that price will rise and drop from the pivot at 0.76450 where the overlap resistance, 50% fibonacci retracement and 100% fibonacci projection are to the 1st support at 0.75615 in line with the swing low support. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and rise to the 1st resistance at 0.77305 where the swing high resistance is. Fundamentals: As a result of the BoC rate increase of 100bps recently, we have a bullish bias on the Canadian Dollar. We'll need to exercise caution for this setup because our fundamentals and technicals are not completely aligned
CME:6C1!Short
by Genesiv
CANADIAN DOLLAR FUTURES (6C1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Momentum Resistance : 0.77305 Pivot: 0.76850 Support : 0.76430 Preferred Case: On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud and along the descending trendline, we have a bearish bias that price will rise and drop from the pivot at 0.76850 in line with the pullback resistance to the 1st support at 0.76430 where the swing low support, -27.2% fibonacci expansion and 78.6% fibonacci projection are. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and rise to the 1st resistance at 0.77305 where the swing high resistance and 78.6% fibonacci projection are. Fundamentals: The BoC is expected to increase rates to 2.25%, a 75 bps increase, giving us a bullish bias on the Canadian Dollar .
CME:6C1!
by Tickmill
CANADIAN DOLLAR FUTURES (6C1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Momentum Resistance : 0.77305 Pivot: 0.76850 Support : 0.76430 Preferred Case: On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud and along the descending trendline, we have a bearish bias that price will rise and drop from the pivot at 0.76850 in line with the pullback resistance to the 1st support at 0.76430 where the swing low support, -27.2% fibonacci expansion and 78.6% fibonacci projection are. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and rise to the 1st resistance at 0.77305 where the swing high resistance and 78.6% fibonacci projection are. Fundamentals: The BoC is expected to increase rates to 2.25%, a 75 bps increase, giving us a bullish bias on the Canadian Dollar.
CME:6C1!Short
by Genesiv
Canadian Dollar Futures (6C1!), H1 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Momentum Resistance : 0.77125 Pivot: 0.76835 Support : 0.76460 Preferred Case: On the H1, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud , we have a bearish bias that price will rise and drop from the pivot at 0.76835 in line with the overlap resistance and 78.6% fibonacci projection to the 1st support at 0.76460 where the -27.2% fibonacci expansion and swing low support are. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and rise to the 1st resistance at 0.77125 where the pullback resistance, 50% fibonacci retracement and -61.8% fibonacci expansion are. Fundamentals: As sentiment over the BoC increasing rates by 75bps continues to grow, we have a bearish view of the canadian dollar.
CME:6C1!Short
by Genesiv
CANADIAN DOLLAR FUTURES (6C1!), H1 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Momentum Resistance : 0.77755 Pivot: 0.77410 Support : 0.76840 Preferred Case: On the H1, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud and along a descending trendline , we have a bearish bias that price will drop from the pivot at 0.77410 in line with the overlap resistance and 23.6% fibonacci retracement to the 1st support at 0.76840 where the swing low support and -61.8% fibonacci expansion are. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head to the 1st resistance at 0.77755 where the swing high resistance, 100% fibonacci projection , 78.6% fibonacci projection and 61.8% fibonacci retracement are. Fundamentals: Recent Canadian Dollar strength had been slightly reversed with Canadian GDP month-on-month being released at 0.3% (Previous: 0.7%) indicating a slow down in economic activity and growth, giving us a medium bearish view on the Canadian Dollar .
CME:6C1!
by Tickmill