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EUR/USD: Local Selling OpportunityTechnical Situation EUR/USD shows an interesting local setup. The price has tested a key resistance level twice, which has proven its strength and halted the upward movement. Current Picture Currently, the quotes are located at a high-volume zone, where sellers' reaction to the decline is already visible. This could be a signal for entering short positions. Alternative Scenario A scenario where the price makes another move higher—towards the next volume zone—is not ruled out. In this case, selling opportunities will become even more relevant with an improved risk/reward ratio. Entry Points Selling is relevant: From current levels Upon updating local highs followed by a pullback Additional Context The presented analysis reflects the local picture. To understand the broader situation on EUR/USD, I recommend checking my previous publications. Important: Don't forget to monitor the Dollar Index (DXY) dynamics, as it directly affects EUR/USD movement.
CME_MINI:M6E1!Short
by Smart-Day-Trader
Euro Sentiment: What’s Ahead in the Next Few DaysRetail positioning tells a clear story: 70% short / 30% long on EUR/USD → That’s a textbook setup for a long . The crowd is bearish — but structure favors bulls. From a technical standpoint, we’re seeing a solid corrective move up from 1.15, with even a mini-higher high – higher low pattern forming — yes, like the ones in classic TA textbooks. It looks not just logical… but inviting. Now let’s look at the options market: There’s real bullish momentum building: 1. Naked calls being bought 2. Call spreads actively traded My focus is on two key structures: First, the call at 1.165, entered on November 6 — now already in the money (#1 at chart) Friday’s straddle at 1.1575 — its upper boundary aligns perfectly with the trigger level from October 29 (#2 at chart) 🎯 Confluence? Yes. 🔍 Putting It All Together: We have fuel for further upside in EUR: Retail overcrowded short Technical structure improving Options flow turning bullish But resistance looms ahead: 1.1649 and up to 1.1683 (futures prices) are strong zones These levels could cap the upside move and offer high-probability short setups 👉 In particular, 1.1649 stands out as an ideal zone to consider a short. On Monday, I’ll calculate the Expected Range (ER) levels — and if it aligns with this resistance, I’ll definitely place a limit order here. Not using ER levels yet? Spend one minute learning them — and gain the edge most traders overlook.
CME:6EZ2025Short
by ClashChartsTeam
EUR/USD – Short-Term Structural Continuation SetupGlobal Macro Context The Federal Reserve continues to maintain a neutral–dovish stance, showing no urgency to cut rates. With no COT Report and no major updates on monetary policy this week, the macro narrative remains unchanged. We also didn’t have the JOLTS release, and we’re unlikely to have Payroll data tomorrow due to the ongoing government shutdown. This absence of labor data makes it difficult for Fed members to justify any near-term rate cut. Hence, monetary expectations remain stable, supporting a relatively firm U.S. dollar in the short run. Market Structure & Price Action From a long-term perspective, EUR/USD remains in a bullish structure. We recently saw a bearish failed auction inside a long-term demand zone, with buyers successfully producing a short-term structural shift (CHoCH) to the upside. Price had moved outside the Value Area (VA) of the previous medium- and long-term impulses — a typical condition for retracement. Several inefficiencies were left behind, so the current upward correction is consistent with restoring balance. However, the medium-term structure is still bearish and dominant, and when sellers react from upper supply zones, they’ll likely attempt to violate the current short-term bullish structure and realign the broader framework to bearish — consistent with the slower monetary transition implied by the Fed’s stance. At the moment, the focus remains on aligning with the short-term bullish bias, and reassessing near the vPOC of the medium-term VA, where renewed selling pressure could emerge. Volume & Order Flow Analysis The demand zones within the current short-term dealing range were validated by strong confluence: Technical discount (retracement toward 75%), Positive Delta Cluster (confirming buyer aggression at discount), VWAP alignment (institutional mean reversion level). The lower demand zone corresponds to the accumulation base that originated this entire move — the true institutional demand, where the bulk of long positions were established and will likely be defended. The upper demand represents a reaccumulation leg, where price overlapped a previous supply that failed to hold — the moment sellers lost control and bullish momentum accelerated. Outlook Tomorrow would normally bring COT and Payroll, but due to the ongoing U.S. shutdown, no major macro data is expected. Therefore, price action will likely depend on order flow and continuation dynamics, especially around VWAP and the short-term demand zones. The plan remains to trade in alignment with the short-term bullish structure, focusing on continuation entries as long as demand holds and Delta confirms sustained buying aggression.
CME:6E1!Long
by philipemav
Euro on the DeclineThe recent decline in Euro futures is fundamentally driven by the widening monetary policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, combined with sustained U.S. Dollar strength. While both central banks have battled inflation, the Fed is largely perceived as maintaining a "higher-for-longer" interest rate environment to ensure price stability, keeping U.S. bond yields attractive to global investors. In contrast, the ECB is seen as nearing the end of its tightening cycle or being closer to initiating cuts due to persistent Eurozone economic stagnation and inflation moving closer to its 2% target. This disparity in interest rates makes the U.S. Dollar the preferred currency for carry trades and capital parking, putting constant downward pressure on the value of the Euro against the greenback. This trend reflects a fundamental "two-speed economy" problem: a resilient U.S. economy on one side versus a struggling Eurozone on the other. This dynamic not only creates a yield advantage for the dollar but also reinforces its status as the global safe-haven currency. When global market uncertainty increases, investors rush into the USD, causing the Euro futures price to fall. Until there is a dramatic change in economic data—either a sharp deterioration in the U.S. or a significant rebound in the Eurozone—the structural headwind from this interest rate gap will likely continue to make the Euro futures contract vulnerable to downward moves. *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
CME:6E1!
by CME_Group
EUR/USD – 6E // Structural Analysis Context The Federal Reserve continues to drain liquidity from the system while maintaining a cautious stance rather than a purely hawkish one. Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that monetary policy is not on a preset course, and decisions will be guided by the balance between inflation and employment data. He noted that inflation risks remain slightly to the upside, but that the downside risks to employment have increased, suggesting a gradual shift toward a more balanced policy outlook. Meanwhile, the U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of crucial macroeconomic data, including the COT reports, limiting visibility into institutional positioning and forcing traders to rely primarily on price, volume, and market structure as objective indicators. Adding to the macro backdrop, U.S. yields remain elevated across the curve, sustaining a clear interest rate advantage for the dollar relative to the eurozone. This persistent differential continues to attract capital flows toward USD-denominated assets, reinforcing the short- and medium-term bias in favor of the dollar. Volume Analysis & Auction Market Theory Price remains below the Value Area of the active dealing range, placing the market within a technical discount zone — a clear sign of imbalance in auction dynamics. This implies that fresh short exposure carries increasing risk, as the market trades below fair value relative to its volumetric distribution. Until new acceptance develops within value, volatility and liquidity asymmetry are expected to persist. Price Action The previous analysis calling for a long structural realignment has failed, and the reason is now clear. The last demand zone, currently being revisited, failed to generate a new higher high, confirming it as a weak demand and therefore a high-probability target for liquidity violation. At this point, the market shows clear signs of dollar accumulation, potentially indicating the start of a broader expansion phase favoring USD. Even the deep discount demand may not hold unless substantial absorption occurs. Both short-term and medium-term structures remain bearish, defined by successive breakdowns with price acceptance. The move is inefficient, leaving behind several Low Volume Nodes (LVNs) — often precursors of either: a spring-type reversal, sweeping liquidity before reaccumulation, or a continuation leg, confirming structural expansion of the dollar cycle. For conservative or longer-term investors, rather than waiting for a full medium-term realignment, it may be prudent to await price acceptance back inside the Value Area, followed by a failed auction confirmation, and observe reactions toward the range high or the Value Area High (VAH). Macro Events This Week This week’s calendar reinforces U.S. macro dominance and short-term volatility risk: Monday (Nov 3): ISM Manufacturing PMI Tuesday (Nov 4): JOLTs Job Openings Wednesday (Nov 5): ISM Services PMI Thursday (Nov 6): BoE Interest Rate Decision Friday (Nov 7): Germany Balance of Trade; U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls; Unemployment Rate; Michigan Consumer Sentiment With both labor market and services data concentrated toward the end of the week, volatility spikes and renewed dollar strength are possible should results sustain the inflationary narrative supporting current yield levels. Summary Macro: Fed remains hawkish; liquidity contraction ongoing; yields favor the dollar. Structure: Short- and medium-term remain bearish; demand zones show weakness. Volume: Price below Value Area indicates technical discount and imbalance. Outlook: Market likely in a dollar accumulation phase; confirmation awaits acceptance and failed auction.
CME:6E1!
by philipemav
EUR/USD - 6E FUTURES // SHORT SETUPMacro Context The market is currently in a macro distribution phase after a confirmed structural breakdown and failure to re-enter previous value areas. Supply remains dominant, and institutional flow favors continuation to lower value zones. The setup aims to capture the short-term redistribution leg within the broader macro cycle. Technical Structure Bias: Short Structure: Break of Structure → Retest → Redistribution Setup Type: Institutional rejection inside Premium Zone (Wyckoff redistribution pattern) Framework: Medium-term structure aligned with macro distribution Dealing Range: Composed of two consecutive legs, which increases structural ambiguity — focus on the final impulse for precision. Entry Criteria Context aligned: Macro structure confirms bearish bias. Location: Entry at 75% of the total dealing range, or 75% retracement of the final impulse (depending on liquidity context). Confluence factors: Supply Zone aligned with LVN. Presence of maximum negative delta in prior breakdown zone. vPOC cluster near Premium (indicating previous distribution). Confirmation inside the zone: Compression + Wyckoff Redistribution (lower highs, absorption, loss of momentum). 🗓️ Weekly Context Note – November 3–7, 2025 This is Week 1 of the month, typically characterized by institutional repositioning and NFP volatility. The market is expected to remain liquidity-driven and reactive, especially ahead of Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll data, which will likely define directional bias for the rest of the month. The COT report was not released this week due to the U.S. government shutdown, limiting visibility into institutional positioning. As a result, traders must rely on price structure, delta flow, and yield curve dynamics for macro confirmation instead of commitment data. Key scheduled events: Mon (Nov 3): ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD) Tue (Nov 4): JOLTs Job Openings (USD) Wed (Nov 5): ISM Services PMI (USD) Thu (Nov 6): BoE Interest Rate Decision (GBP) Fri (Nov 7): Germany Balance of Trade + U.S. NFP, Unemployment Rate & Michigan Sentiment Operational focus: Expect low conviction early in the week as institutions adjust positioning. High-impact volatility likely Thursday–Friday. Avoid premature entries into premium zones prior to NFP. Post-NFP retracements may provide the cleanest opportunities for continuation setups within the macro bias. Analytical note: With COT data unavailable, price action remains the only reliable proxy for institutional flow. Volatility is expected to compress before expanding post-NFP — favor setups only in structurally efficient zones.
CME:6E1!Short
by philipemav
Psychology of Execution — The Discipline Behind ProfitabilityThe trader’s work is not to predict, but to identify and repeat statistical edges. We are not paid for time or effort — trading is not a conventional job where more work means more income. We are compensated for analytical precision and disciplined execution. Every trading system lives or dies by its risk management. Capital protection is not defensive; it is strategic — because only preserved capital can compound. Patience is not passivity; it is the highest expression of confidence in one’s own method. There is no consistent profit outside of a system with proven positive expectancy. The Stop Loss is not a punishment, but the technical boundary where an idea loses validity — respecting it preserves both capital and clarity. The Take Profit is not greed; it is discipline in harvesting the statistical payoff that maintains long-term profitability. Risk–Reward asymmetry is one of the most important principles of professional trading. However, it must be calibrated: win rate and R:R are inversely correlated in most systems. High R:R setups can be profitable even with low accuracy, but the real question is whether the trader’s psychology can endure long sequences of losses without emotional erosion. Market rumors and sentimental analysis are traps — they feed volatility, not precision. Professional traders operate from objective data, structure, and impartial interpretation, letting probability — not emotion — dictate the outcome. Trading is a craft of asymmetry, probability, and restraint. Profit is the by-product of method — not the reward for effort.
CME:6E1!Education
by philipemav
Euro Eyes Breakout Ahead of Rate DecisionFenzoFx—EUR/USD is trading lower today, below the descending trendline. The price has been reacting to the ascending trendline multiple times as shown on the chart. There is a double bottom formed at $1.1584, which could limit the upside momentum as liquidity rests below them. As we approach the US interest rate decision, we expect Euro to trade higher against the U.S. dollar and break above the descending trendline. In this scenario, Euro could rally to 1.1766, followed by 1.1830. On the flip side, if Euro remains below the descending trendline, the price could target the double bottom at 1.1584, as sell-side liquidity is resting below this level.
CME:6E1!
by FenzoFxBroker
Global FX Trends: Policy Divergence and a Resilient DollarThe foreign exchange market is currently being shaped by two dominant forces: diverging central bank policies and the surprising resilience of the U.S. Dollar despite expectations for further rate cuts. As we move into the final quarter of the year, macro fundamentals are increasingly outweighing earlier trade headlines to guide currency direction. The U.S. Dollar Finds a Floor After an aggressive sell-off earlier in the year, the U.S. Dollar has staged a significant rebound and is now stabilizing. This turnaround is largely due to resilient U.S. economic data, which has led the Federal Reserve to adopt a more cautious stance on future interest rate cuts. While the market had priced in an aggressive easing cycle, the Fed's reluctance to commit to a rapid pace of cuts has revived the dollar's appeal. Additionally, the USD retains its status as the world's primary safe-haven currency, providing it with inherent support amid global geopolitical and financial market uncertainties. Traders are now focusing more on real economic data than on speculative Fed expectations. Key Divergences in Major Pairs The stabilization of the USD is driving volatility and clear trends in major currency pairs: EUR/USD : The Euro initially surged to multi-year highs earlier in 2025 but has since retreated against the stronger dollar. The European Central Bank (ECB) is seen as being closer to ending its easing cycle and the Eurozone economy is showing signs of moderate momentum, which provides underlying support for the Euro. However, any sustained rally requires the market to price in more definitive Fed cuts than the Fed is currently signaling. USD/JPY: The pair remains volatile, with the Yen facing pressure from the persistent large interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan. While the Yen is a traditional safe-haven asset, it is being weakened by the ultra-low interest rates maintained by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Speculation about a possible BoJ rate hike is keeping the Yen from weakening further, but the pair’s direction is currently dominated by USD strength and the rate gap. Commodity Currencies: Currencies like the Australian Dollar (AUD) and Canadian Dollar (CAD) have been stabilizing, benefiting from a perceived improvement in global risk sentiment and stabilization in commodity markets. However, these currencies remain highly sensitive to news regarding U.S.-China trade relations, often acting as a proxy for global growth and demand. The overarching theme for the rest of the year remains monetary policy divergence. While most G10 central banks have already begun cutting rates, the U.S. Fed's slower pace is keeping the dollar comparatively firm, creating sharp movements and opportunities in the major currency crosses. *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
CME:6E1!
by CME_Group
Wait for price to SHOW ME WHERE TO MAKE MONEY!Hey Squad, Im going to keep this short and sweet but I want you to PEEP......lol the possible setups that are coming. This week we can not tell exactly what to look for since the market is giving us opposing call outs. For example, The Weekly looks like a double top has formed showing bears/selling favor but the 4/8h shows respecting of a low and shows the forming of a double bottom! so what does this mean? We are waiting for price to show us who to follow!! But if you were to ask me....I believe the USD will suffer this week due to shutdown and uncertainty so I believe we will be trending low! Good for gold and silver traders and those that see weakness in the $! If we can break below the 1.163 area and hold I think its clear we are moving down until we hit a high time frame FVG. Tell me your thoughts and comments on this Analysis! and like always! Gd look out there and TAKE PROFIT!
CME_MINI:M6E1!Short
by TaYbTrading
ER + Option Break-Even = Hidden Support Zone in EURA quick look at my slightly crazy trading chart for the Euro futures — here’s what matters today: 🔸 A naked put at 1.55 (circled) has seen outflows of nearly 1,300 contracts, with roughly 3,000 still open — though not all may be "naked" (some could be part of structured positions). Important context: This option is still out of the money (obviously), but holders have already made ~2x their initial premium and are now taking profits. 👉 So the right question is: Why take profits now instead of waiting for further downside? 🔸 Second key point: Today’s lower ER boundary aligns almost perfectly with the break-even level of this 1.55 put — where some open interest remains. Now, if these are indeed naked puts (not complex hedged portfolios), then as price approaches this zone, traders will likely start buying futures to build up synthetic portfolio 📌 Result? Potential bounce or short-term rally from this level. Not because of bullish sentiment — but speculative logic
CME:6EZ2025Long
by ClashChartsTeam
6E EURUSD - SHORT SETUPTechnical Context The market confirmed acceptance below the previous H1 dealing range, extending the current bearish efficiency phase. The supply zone (1.1653–1.1665) sits slightly above the Value Area Low, where aggressive sellers could defend the return to the macro VA, indicating renewed intent for redistribution. Despite this local bearish continuation, the daily dealing range remains intact and technically bullish, suggesting we are approaching the lower boundary of a higher-timeframe demand zone. Upcoming setups in this area carry increased short-side risk as price nears potential higher-timeframe absorption zones. The release of the next COT report will be crucial to assess net positioning and the prevailing directional pressure among institutional participants. Execution Plan Bias: Short Entry Zone: 1.1653 – 1.1665 (Aggressive Sellers + Supply Zone above VAL) Stop Loss: 1.1690 Take Profit 1: 1.1588 Take Profit 2: Projection (continuation of redistribution phase) Trigger: Price compression and redistribution inside the supply zone Technical Note Sellers maintain control below value after defending the premium area. Failure to regain acceptance above 1.1665 confirms ongoing redistribution, with potential expansion toward the lower low or deeper continuation.
CME:6E1!Short
by philipemav
6E - EUR/USD FX - SHORT SETUPTechnical Context We are waiting for price to approach the 75 % premium zone (1.1785–1.1800), where prior negative delta clusters align with the POC of the local value area — the origin of efficient selling. Above this range, the 1.1811 level represents the macro value area of the long-term consolidation (since June 25, 2025), reinforcing this zone as a critical supply boundary. VWAP remains sloping downward, confirming bearish efficiency and continuation of the broader distribution phase. If price revisits this region, we will look for signs of rejection or compression, confirming continuation of the current macro breakdown. Execution Plan Bias: Short Entry Zone: 1.1785 – 1.1800 (Local VA POC + 75 % premium + supply cluster) Stop Loss: 1.1830 Take Profit 1: 1.1650 Take Profit 2: 1.1600 Trigger: Compression and redistribution inside the supply zone
CME:6E1!Short
by philipemav
6E - SHORT SETUPTechnical Context The market broke down from the previous dealing range, showing full acceptance below the prior value area. We are now waiting for price to reach the upper boundary of the new distribution zone, where a prior negative delta at 1.1750 (75% premium line) confirms the origin of efficient selling activity. If price revisits this zone, I will look for signs of redistribution, confirming continuation of the current selling phase. Execution Plan Bias: Short Entry Zone: 1.1750 (75% premium + negative delta + prior supply) Trigger: Redistribution inside the zone Target: Extension of the previous breakdown range Invalidation: Acceptance above 1.1770
CME:6E1!Short
by philipemav
6E - SHORT SETUPTechnical Context The market broke down from the previous dealing range, showing clear acceptance below the last value area. Price is now retracing toward a supply zone aligned with the 75% premium line, where prior negative delta confirms seller efficiency. If price revisits this zone, a short opportunity may emerge as the market seeks to rebalance liquidity inefficiencies left behind during the breakdown. Execution Plan Bias: Short Entry Zone: 1.1780–1.1790 (supply + negative delta + premium + round number) Confirmation: Lower timeframe distribution on the zone Target: Projection of the previous swing (-25% range) Invalidation: Acceptance above 1.18
CME:6E1!Short
by philipemav
1
Institutional Absence & Retail-Driven Liquiditywww.forexfactory.com The current market environment reflects an absence of strong institutional conviction, with price rotating inside overlapping value areas as uncertainty from the government shutdown limits directional discovery. Without key economic data to anchor narratives, orderflow is dominated by retail participation, where stop-losses and emotional reactions provide the primary source of liquidity. This creates volatility spikes and false auctions that lack sustained follow-through, making the market prone to choppy, stop-driven moves rather than genuine intent. In such conditions, caution is essential, with asymmetric opportunities found only at extremes of value areas or in response to major liquidity events that can reintroduce institutional activity and restore directional flow.
CME:6E1!
by FervTrades
Euro Slow Rise HigherSince the market found a near term bottom back in January, the Euro has seen strong gains to the upside. There are many factors that have helped not only boost the Euro, but also other currencies globally, and one of which has been broad weakness in the Dollar. There are a lot of concerns looming that are still unpredictable, including potential interest rate cuts for the remainder of the year, tariff decisions, and global tensions. It is also important to understand the price compared to historic prices, and even though the price has been rising, the market has been in a downtrend for some time looking back to the early 2000s. Fresh from the Trading Room: As path changes Looking more at the technical levels can tell a similar story as well. The Euro traded out above the 200-day moving average back in March, and since then the market has not dipped down below that level and has also respected the 50-day moving average as a sort of "support" level where prices have rebounded back out above it after testing it to the downside. Along with that, the 1.16 level acted as resistance and has now flipped to a level the market has bounced off of and is now acting as support. There are a lot of factors that can change the trajectory of this market, but seeing prices moving slowly higher while relative strength remains in neutral territory shows a lot of strength. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/ *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
CME:6E1!
by CME_Group
EUR/USD Eyes Liquidity Gap at $1.1788 SupportFenzoFx—Euro is trading bearish in the short term, currently lingering around the fair value gap with support at $1.1788. Looking at the 4-hour chart, we notice the price respected the bearish FVG with resistance at $1.1903, and the price failed to close above it and engulfed below it. From a technical perspective, the sell-side liquidity has not been taken yet. That's the gap area with support at $1.1788. We expect the short-term bearish bias to resume by filling the gap. The cumulative volume profile also indicates the recent higher lows are valid, and there is no bullish divergence. The bearish outlook should be invalidated if the price closes above $1.1903.
CME:6E1!
by FenzoFxBroker