Intraday Playbook ES Futures: Trade Setup & Context CME_MINI:ES1!
Big Picture Context
Please see related trade idea.
In this analysis, we refine our intraday levels to identify potential trade setups. We also review recent price action and present a high-probability long trade example that frequently offers favorable risk-reward dynamics when it plays out successfully.
See chart image below reviewing yesterday’s long trade opportunity.
Example Trade Setup: SFP Long
Time frame: 1 hour or 30 mins
• Entry: 5612
• Stop: 5595.50 (below SFP candle)
• Target: 5682 (mCVAH — confluence with recent highs)
• Risk: 66 ticks
• Reward: 280 ticks
• Risk/Reward Ratio: 4.2 R
Note: Past performance is not indicative of future results.
________________________________________
Intraday Market Structure Review
What has the market done?
• ES Futures have rallied and reclaimed a key technical level.
• Currently trading above:
o March 2025 low
o 2025 mid-year level
o Developing Value Area Low (VAL) for the 2025 Volume Profile
What is the market trying to do?
• Recover prior months' losses.
• Price action is climbing steadily, establishing higher lows.
How well is it doing?
• Despite headline risks, ES futures show resilience.
• Price has painted green candles in the full session for the past 10 consecutive days—a strong bullish structure.
________________________________________
What Is More Likely to Happen from Here?
Scenario 1: Pullback and Continuation Higher
A pullback toward the 0.618 Fib retracement and mCVAH confluence could offer another long setup, targeting the April 2nd high. This is further supported by NQ already reclaiming those highs, with ES still lagging but showing strength.
Example Trade Idea:
Time frame: 1 hour or 30 mins
• Entry: 5688
• Stop: 5680
• Target: 5724 (May 2 High)
• Risk: 32 ticks
• Reward: 144 ticks
• Risk/Reward Ratio: 4.5 R
Target may be adjusted if relative volume and delta support strong momentum toward April 2nd highs.
________________________________________
Scenario 2: Further Consolidation
• Sellers push prices back into last week's balance/value area.
• Market consolidates and builds energy for a likely next leg higher.
• No short setup is presented, as current risk and stop placement do not justify initiating short positions.
Important Notes:
• These are example trade ideas not intended to be a recommendation to trade, and traders are encouraged to do their own analysis and preparation before entering any positions.
• Stop losses are not guaranteed to trigger at specified levels, and actual losses may exceed predetermined stop levels.
