S&P Futures monthly chart review4-27-25 Update
The big April bear bar went too far too fast to be sustainable for the bears
Even if it had closed on it's low, that would have been terrible
for the bears. Stop would have been too far away and would invite
a fade. As it stands, it is a a bad bar for both bulls and bears. Bears see
tremendous buying pressure, forming the large wick. But as is, the bar is a bad buy signal
and bulls would face a similarly large stop. For bears, ideally they get a few days of down
to get back to the mid-point at least, but that is 300-400 points to make it a compelling
bear bar, so unlikely. Bulls can erase the bear bar with 100 pts or so, but probability is that the
bar finishes with a similar appearance. April's bar is a Breakout and pullback in one bar, likely sellers above.
Interestingly, the LT bullish trend line was broken by the wick, which is a typical element of a MTR setup.
However, a MTR setup would likely require the formation of a right shoulder first.
Most likely scenario here is Price falls back into the body of the bar, reverse up, but then
comeback to test the tail of the bar in 2-3 months.
