M2K1! trade ideas
RTY1!8.14.22 Yesterday I gave you my overview of the Russell and the es mini from a longer timeframe perspective. I went back and took a shorter timeframe perspective on the Russell, and compare it to the longer time frame thinking. I tried to discuss the advantages and disadvantages. I tried to describe a psychological aspect from my point of view, and I'm very much aware in my own trade decisions what the triggers are for my stress. Most of the time I would say that you should look at the Behavior of the market in an "objective "way...based on your observations of market behavior...which can definitely be done, but not all the time. The example I pointed to in this video found the reversal point, but the market came back close to it without making a new low 4 weeks, and from my point of view that's going to be a tough trade for me... and explain why. It doesn't matter if the market never goes below my entry, It doesn't really appeal to me to stay long in a market that doesn't move any significant range off the bottom and for three or four weeks it keeps on coming down to my entry. That is not my concept of Joyful Trading index futures. That's a function of me, not the market. Take a look at it and see what you think as it pertains to you.
RTY is overextending on the upside and downsideI haven't look at RTY for a while now, till the Fri close where I shorted it at 2015.50, willing to add if we stretch into the maj resistance zone right where the upper Bollinger is, that is also a 2.618 extension off the lows
RTY is overextending on the upside and downside compare to SPX .
We hit 50% retracement off 2020 lows in June and I see the whole way as 5 down and 3 up here.
We hit 110MA on Weekly as well as 200MA on Daily. If it's acting as it was on the way lower, SPX might not even reach 200MA in this case.
We are at the very top for this bear market rally, it can still extend up to 2084-2108
We are also at/near 61.8 off Mar high and Jun low as well as near 50% off the ATH and Jun low retraement
I will update the target for the Oct low after I see confirmations of the top.
Rty1! ES8.13.22 The Russell and the ES have foolish Swings, but the bigger pattern suggests that these markets will move lower and possibly make new lows. The bigger picture is that we are probably in a significant bear market....And I would be waiting for my trigger too short....As well as taking profits on the swing higher.
Elliott Wave View: Russell 2000 (RTY) Likely See Further UpsideShort Term Elliott Wave View in Russell 2000 suggests the rally from 6.17.2022 low is unfolding as an impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 6.17.2022 low, wave 1 ended at 1795.1 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 1680.6. Wave 3 higher is in progress as a 5 waves impulse structure. Up from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 1783.6 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 1682.3. Index then resumes higher in wave ((iii)) towards 1920.7, and dips in wave ((iv)) ended at 1884.7.
Wave ((v)) is currently in progress as 5 waves in lesser degree. Up from wave ((iv)), wave (i) ended at 1959.8 and dips in wave (ii) ended at 1904.1. Index then resumes higher in wave (iii) towards 2008.7. While wave (iv) dips stay above 1884.7, Index can see 1 more leg higher to end wave (v) of ((v)). This should complete wave 3 in the higher degree. Afterwards, Index should pullback in 3 , 7, or 11 swing within wave 4 before it resumes higher again in wave 5. This should complete the cycle from 6.17.2022 low before a larger pullback happens to correct that cycle.
Will RTY Daily Resistance Hold?The RTY daily time frame is in a down trend. The
market is hitting the down trend line. At the same
time the market is hitting an up Fibonacci
extension price point 1890.50. Usually when this
happens. The market has a bearish reaction. If the
market continues to push bullish and breaks the
down trend line. It will be a strong sign the buyers
are taking control. If the market cannot break and
close above the down trend line. It is expected
the sellers are taking control and will push the
market back down.
As long as the market stays below the daily
down trend line. It will be a good idea to turn
to the one hour time frame and to look for
high prices in the sell zone.
RTY: Top of the Channel ShortSeems like we are re-testing the top of the channel; good place for good return/risk ratio to target bottom of the channel.
Fundamentally, Russell should be strongest of the major indicies - being longest dollar (versus more internationally exposed names in S&P500 and NASDAQ100); technical targets are somewhat the same across the 3 indices; each targeting 14-16% downside from here assuming the floor breaks.
RTY UpdateOverbought again after the morning dip, looks like a melt up and 4 day short squeeze so not shorting anything at the moment aside from the put leg of my BITO strangle. Calls are now in the money so hopefully crypto goes pumptarded on Ponzi payday Friday.
I'm 75% sure this is a melt up, but if you're long I suggest some protection.
M2K Swing trading Micro E-mini Future Russell 2000M2K 2022-07-25 Swing trade M2K 1 contract
Trend
- At the pane below, all indicators are beginning to reverse to a down trend
- All the moving averages (Ma-18-21, 50, 100, 200) are trending down, and in a synchronize
inverse order
Special condition
-The result reports of many big companies may influence this trade
Orders
- Short executed for 1 contract of the Future M2K, at 15h59 July 25 2022
- Stop order waiting placed over the recent high
- Lmt order waiting near the Bollinger-Low-Band
Money in play
- If stop exec -168$ (1817.0 - 1851.0) *5$ * 1 ctr minus 2$ (fees, slippage)
- If Lmt exec +578$ (1817.0 - 1701.0) *5$ * 1 ctr minus 2$ (fees, slippage)
RTY UpdateNQ is tanking but RTY has more of a wave 4 type pattern, so small caps probably rally on the Fed tomorrow. MFI hit oversold, but the index didn't sell off much. IWM has a bullish pattern on the daily and intraday.
Small caps are relatively strong despite most garbage and retail stocks being in the category. Strange.
Anyways, bullish on small caps tomorrow for the usual Fed pump. Will wait for tomorrow and day trade I think.