ES - July 31st Daily PlanJuly 31, 2025 8:55am - Daily Plan
We currently have support at 6448 in yellow. If we can flush 6448 and reclaim around 6452, that would be a good entry for a level-to-level move and target 6460, 6468.
Next level is shown in Green & Red around the 6430-6434 zone, and this is the high of yesterday and the overnight session low. There is an open gap that could be filled at 6426 and then the reclaim of 6432 would be a nice entry to test the 6448 resistance, could then continue to move higher to 6460, 6468+.
Those are the areas I will be looking to grab some points today!
Micro E-mini S&P 500 Index Futures
No trades
Trade ideas
S&P 500 Intraday & Swing Entries H1 entry is close to getting activated for intraday.
If you want a swing trade then wait for H4 entry (you might be waiting a while obviously)
Reason for entries - We have broken out of Balance since July 25th and currently in a trend phase until we establish a new value area, or return to the one we broke out from.
So since Trend and Momentum is UP, then we should find Low Volume Areas to enter in the direction of the trend for a classic pullback entry trade.
07/30/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis EOD accountability report: +960
Sleep: 5 hours
Overall health: still struggling with sleep due to heat waves
VX Algo System Signals from (9:30am to 2pm)
— 8:30 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!✅
— 9:45 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! ✅
— 10:30 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!❌
— 11:30 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!❌
— 12:00 PM VXAlgo NQ X1DD Buy Signal, ✅
— 12:30 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!✅
What’s are some news or takeaway from today? and What major news or event impacted the market today?
I have started to noticed that the last 3 days, we have been getting false triggers on market structure signals and it almost feels MM are trying to do it to break people's algo that trade on that.
This is a good reminder that no matter how successful the signal has been for the last 30 days, you still need to have risk management. additionally, it's also a good way to test people's faith and trick new traders in going back to doing random things because it makes them think market can behave randomly and nothing works.
this is why i always tell people to religiously test out a system for 30 days before giving up.
News
*FEDERAL RESERVE SKIPS RATE CUT, KEEPS FED FUNDS RATE AT 4.50%
What are the critical support levels to watch?
--> Above 6410= Bullish, Under 6400= Bearish
Tech Earnings & Fed Meeting - July 30th - ES 100pt drop?I trade ES Futures and have identified an important support shelf that if broken could accelerate lower.
There is lower monthly volume below 6400 area. The monthly Point of Control is currently at 6300. The monthly 61.8% retracement is 6316. We have a fed meeting today and while trapping can happen, my lean is that we lose the 6400 level this week and could reach the 6316 target very quickly. Each level drawn are the more significant levels as to where institutional buyers may step in.
07/29/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis EOD accountability report: +734
Sleep: 5 hours
Overall health: Been struggling with sleep due to heat waves
VX Algo System Signals from (9:30am to 2pm)
— 8:00 AM Market Structure flipped bearish✅
— 9:30 AM VXAlgo NQ X3 Buy Signal✅
— 9:36 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! ❌
— 11:49 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal✅
— 11:59 AM VXAlgo NQ X1 Buy Signal❌
What’s are some news or takeaway from today? and What major news or event impacted the market today?
Today was one of the few short the resistance day and refreshing to see after we been grinding ATH (all time highs)
News
— 1:30 PM
🇺🇸🇨🇳 *CHINA SAYS IT AGREES WITH US TO EXTEND TARIFF TRUCE
What are the critical support levels to watch?
--> Above 6395= Bullish, Under 6374= Bearish
POC Pressure Cooker – MES Prepares for VolatilityWe’re heading into the NY session with MES balancing between key levels. The 50% retracement of the recent range (6436) is acting as a pivot, while the POC at 6428 is the immediate area of interest. The structure is tight here’s both sides of the play:
Key Levels to Watch:
- Upper Range: 6457–6460 (recent swing high)
- Mid-Range Pivot: 6436 (Fib 50%)
- POC & Support Zone: 6428 (volume shelf)
- Lower Range: 6415 → 6400
🟩 Bullish Scenario
A breakout and hold above 6440–6445 could lead to a retest of 6457–6460, with potential continuation to 6470+ if momentum accelerates.
- Confluence: Higher low structure above 6428, EMAs curling up, and price reacting positively to POC.
- Invalidation: Clean break and close below 6428.
🟥 Bearish Scenario
A failure to hold 6430 and a push through 6428 (POC) could see sellers target 6415, then possibly 6400.
- Confluence: Descending red trend line still capping price, and VWAP rejections could support a downside move.
- Invalidation: Break above 6457 with strong buyer aggression.
Staakd Notes:
This is a range-play environment. The real edge is in waiting for a break + retest of 6440 or 6428 to confirm direction. NY open volatility is likely to provide a fake out before the true move. Give it 30 mins from open.
Closing Line:
“Price is coiled between POC and the 50% mark. We’ll let NY open show its hand then react, not predict.”
29 july 2025Possible short on ES. NY took out the previous day's high while ES did not, thus forming an SMT. There is a 4 hour poor low from the previous week's wednesday and relative equal lows on friday.
As we are approaching the end of the month there could very well be a sell off to put in the month's wick before continuing higher next week.
SP500 E-Mini Futures will pump to 6,442.00 and then dump hardSP500 E-Mini Futures is showing in the lower timeframes a possible continuation at least more 6,30% reaching the 6,442.00 mark and at the same time with some bearish divergences in the higher time frames that if the price gets there could iniate a pullback between 30% and 40% to bring the price back slight below 4,000.00 at the end of next year possibly.
07/28/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis EOD accountability report: +405
Sleep: 5 hours
Overall health: meh
VX Algo System Signals from (9:30am to 2pm)
— 9:00 AM Market Structure flipped bullish❌
— 10:04 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal! ✅
— 11:21 AM Under 6424, the structure is bearish. Don't avg down! ✅
— 11:40 AMVXAlgo NQ X1 Buy Signal! ✅
— 12:40 PM VXAlgo NQ X1DD Sell Signal! ✅
— 1:30 PM VXAlgo ES X3DD Sell Signal! ✅
What’s are some news or takeaway from today? and What major news or event impacted the market today?
Today was one of the few short the resistance day and refreshing to see after we been grinding ATH (all time highs)
News
Eu trade deal over the weekend,
& china tariff extension.
What are the critical support levels to watch?
--> Above 6395= Bullish, Under 6374= Bearish
Early entry on !ES New York Session?If London -> New York session will be a reversal, this may be a solid entry...
- Lower time frames showing RSI Divergence (bottoming out).
- Higher time frames look like it could be a v shape recovery.
From a macro standpoint, I am anticipating a volatile week. A lot of news - but nothing today (monday). It would not surprise me to see Monday do the inverse of what is to come later in the week. So I am not trading today, outside of what is currently in position (Long Silver, Gold, & ES).
S&P 500 (ES1): Buyers In Control Amid Tariff Deals & EarningsWelcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of July 28 - Aug 1st.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market:
S&P 500 (ES1!)
The S&P 500 rose Friday to fresh highs, following a busy week of tariff updates and earnings. The S&P ended the week with its fifth straight record close, its longest such streak in over a year.
No reason to consider selling. Wait for pullbacks to FVGs for high probability buys.
FOMC and NFP loom. Be careful to avoid new entries during news times.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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ES Weekly Recap & Gameplan – 27.07.2025🧭 Market Sentiment
The overall sentiment remains bullish, supported by:
• Declining inflation figures
• Trump’s pivot toward aggressive rate cuts
This shift reinforces a risk-on environment across U.S. indices.
🔙 Previous Week Recap
• ES continued its price discovery journey
• Price ran the 4H swing liquidity and shifted market structure
• A clean 1H demand zone was established post-MSS, leading to a strong move toward new ATH
• A bullish trendline has also formed as a visual representation of this momentum
• I anticipated a deeper retracement last week but adjusted my execution based on the ICT SMT concept — see previous week’s ES plan for details
📊 Technical Analysis
Looking forward:
• My expectation is a continued bullish price discovery
• Watching for price to tap into and potentially deviate below the Daily Fair Value Gap (D-FVG)
• This zone also aligns with the 0.5 Fibonacci equilibrium level, which I consider a discounted entry zone
• Confluence of liquidity + trendline + FVG + Fib makes this an ideal location for new long setups
⚙️ Setup Trigger & Trade Plan
Entry Strategy:
• Wait for a clear 1H–4H market structure shift
• Look for demand zone formation within the discount zone
• Execute long trades after confirmation and retracement into this zone
Trade Management:
🎯 Target: New All-Time Highs
⛔ Stoploss: Swing low beneath 1H–4H demand structure
🗨️ If you found this analysis helpful, don’t forget to like and drop a comment below — I’d love to hear your thoughts and setups for the week!
📥 Follow me for more weekly breakdowns and real-time updates throughout the trading week.
Confident closeThe close on the daily chart in the S&P 500 implies confidence from buyers going into the weekend. This implies follow-through to the upside. What will be important is how this market opens again at 5:00 PM Chicago time Sunday night. That opening can set the tone for trading on Monday.






















