Is NASDAQ Futures Set to Continue Its Bullish Momentum? Key Leve
- Key Insights: Nasdaq Futures are off to a strong start with a 1.4% gain,
bolstered by optimism in the tech sector and risk-on sentiment. However,
caution is advised as mid-week reversals could emerge, driven by
macroeconomic events and Federal Reserve commentary. Traders should monitor
yields, tech earnings, and sector tailwinds closely.
- Price Targets:
- Target Level 1 (T1): 19,400 (~3.2% higher), indicating a breakout
opportunity tied to bullish sentiment.
- Target Level 2 (T2): 19,800 (~5.3% higher), representing extended upside
momentum if T1 is breached.
- Stop Level 1 (S1): 18,200 (~3.2% lower), key downside protection in case of
a midweek reversal.
- Stop Level 2 (S2): 17,700 (~5.9% lower), deeper support for risk control
against volatility.
- Recent Performance: Nasdaq Futures gained 260 points, up 1.4% amidst strong
market sentiment, buoyed significantly by technology stocks. Weekend Wall
Street Futures also rallied 2-3%, signaling robust market positioning and
optimism leading into the new trading week.
- Expert Analysis: Analysts attribute current bullishness to the technology
sector’s leadership, strong earnings outlook, and broader risk-on appetite
reflected in correlated assets like Bitcoin. However, higher Treasury yields
(4.5%) could temper growth stocks later in the week as borrowing costs rise.
Investors are urged to monitor inflation data and sector developments for
recalibration.
- News Impact: Apple options activity hints at potential upcoming catalysts,
while Nasdaq ETF trends in QQQ suggest sustained bullishness with resistance
levels aligning to Futures analysis. Federal Reserve commentary and
inflation data may pose key risks, especially for rate-sensitive tech
stocks.
MNQ1! trade ideas
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed higher on the daily chart. It held above 18,360 at the close, and today’s candle formed a golden cross as the MACD crossed above the Signal line, creating a potential buy signal. However, this signal will only be confirmed if the candle closes as a solid bullish bar, so it's too early to say that a buy confirmation has been established.
On the weekly chart, although the index has not yet reclaimed the 5-week MA, it has gapped above it. Overall, the index appears to be forming a box range between the 3-week and 10-week MAs, and if further upside occurs, we could potentially see a move toward the 60-week MA. However, since the MACD and Signal line on the weekly chart are still sloping downward, there's a high possibility of a medium-term pullback even if the index rallies to the 10-week MA.
On the daily chart, the index is still meeting resistance at the 20-day MA, and the key point now is whether the MACD completes the golden cross or turns downward again. Since the index has managed to hold above 18,360, the potential for a rebound remains open. Buying during pullbacks near the lower wick remains a favorable strategy.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD is turning upward after finding support at the Signal line, forming a potential third wave of buying. In short-term timeframes, buying on dips remains favorable.
This week, the Retail Sales data is scheduled for Wednesday, and the U.S. markets will be closed on Friday. Please keep that in mind for risk management.
Crude Oil
Crude oil closed higher in a narrow range on the daily chart. On the weekly chart, a long lower wick formed, finishing with a doji candle, suggesting indecision. Last week, oil was rejected at the 3-week MA, forming an upper wick. If it rallies this week, it could target the 5-week MA. The $65 level, near both the 5-week and 240-week MAs, remains a strong resistance zone, making it a potentially favorable area to consider short trades.
On the daily chart, oil has entered a box range between the 5-day and 10-day MAs. Though the MACD and Signal line still point downward, oil is currently holding within a supportive range. There is a possibility the MACD could begin to turn upward, so keeping both bullish and bearish scenarios open is advisable.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD is still rising after a golden cross but remains below the zero line, suggesting a potential for another pullback. Overall, monitor intraday movements and continue to trade within the range.
Gold
Gold closed higher, setting a new all-time high. The weekly chart formed a strong bullish candle, resuming its upward trend. Buying near the 3-week MA remains favorable. As the price has overshot the previous target of $3,216, we’ve now entered an overshooting zone, making it difficult to define the next resistance. Therefore, caution is advised for short positions, and it’s best to focus on buying the dips.
On the daily chart, the new all-time high generated a bullish signal, and buying near the 3-day MA is recommended. Gold may enter a sideways consolidation phase while aligning its moving averages. In that case, buying near the 5-day MA may also be considered, but avoid chasing the price higher.
The MACD has made another golden cross, and it’s important that the MACD doesn’t create a divergence by failing to surpass its previous peak. Avoid shorts, and stick with buy-the-dip strategies. On the 240-minute chart, buying momentum remains strong. The RSI is in overbought territory, so again, avoid shorting and focus only on buying during pullbacks.
Market Outlook
Compared to the last two weeks of high volatility, this week is expected to be more subdued. After a period of extreme moves, the market is likely to consolidate and seek direction. Rather than swinging for home runs, it's better to focus on small base hits and steadily build profits.
Wishing you a successful trading week!
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NASDAQ Futures Long Setup: Pullback Entry After Tariff BoostMarket Outlook – April 13, 2025
Quick recap: In my last public analysis, I mentioned watching the 18,350–18,000 zone for signs of support — a level stacked with confluence (50–61.8% Fib, EMA, VWAP, pivot). Price broke down deeper than expected but responded beautifully:
✅ Tagged 18,000 almost to the tick
✅ Rejected hard at the 61.8 Fib
✅ Respected the 50 Fib on the way back up
All solid signs of strength.
Now with tariff exemptions announced today (bullish for tech/Nasdaq), I’m opening the door to more long setups this week.
Here’s What I’m Watching:
🔹 Scenario A: Pullback into the 18,575–18,500 zone (first dotted white line). If price reclaims structure or gives me something clean — EMA bounce, VWAP tag, candle pattern — I’ll look for longs.
🔹 Scenario B: If that level breaks or I miss the first shot, I’ll look for a second chance around 18,000–18,300. Same deal: not jumping in blindly, waiting for a setup to form.
To be clear — these are areas of interest, not automatic trades. I want clean structure and confirmation before entering.
Let’s see how it plays out. Will update if/when I take a position. Stay sharp. 📈
LONG NASDAQ Hello everyone, today I’m sharing an update on my analysis of the Nasdaq 100, following the bullish bias I previously mentioned in an earlier idea. Below, I’ll break down the reasons behind my perspective and how I plan to take advantage of this movement. Let’s dive into the details!
Why I Remain Bullish on the Nasdaq 100
Institutional and Retail Trader Activity
My indicator of institutional and retail trader data shows that retail traders are selling heavily. Historically, my indicator suggests that the price tends to correct these positions, which reinforces my bullish bias.
Open Interest
My open interest indicator, which tracks the net positions of institutional traders—the ones who truly move the market—shows a clear upward trend in long contracts. This indicates that the big players are positioning themselves for an upward move.
Valuation
My valuation indicator, which compares the Nasdaq to the US dollar, gold, and 10-year US Treasury bonds, points to a clear undervaluation relative to all three. This suggests that the current price is an attractive buying opportunity.
Seasonality
Seasonality also supports my outlook, indicating a bullish trend for the coming months. In my previous idea, I mentioned that I expected a potential low at the beginning of April, specifically around April 4th. Here’s the excerpt from that idea:
"My seasonality analysis, which studies historical patterns at certain times of the year, indicates that the Nasdaq could hit a low around April 4th. If this low is confirmed, it could be the springboard for an upward rebound, and I want to be ready for that moment."
That low appears to have been confirmed, and we’re now seeing the development of the expected bullish move.
Update: Bullish Intent Confirmed
In this new phase, I’ve been waiting for the price to show clear bullish intent through price action. I can now see this in the chart with massive, large candles indicating strong buying momentum. Using advanced technical analysis of supply and demand—or what some in the newer community refer to as an "Order Block"—I’ve identified a key zone to go long in the 16-hour timeframe, as shown in the chart.
My Entry Strategy
I’ll be entering a long position in this demand zone I’ve identified, aiming to capitalize on the bullish momentum that’s forming. I’ll keep this idea updated as the price and my indicators evolve, so stay tuned for more details.
Disclaimer
This is my personal analysis and does not constitute financial advice. Trading carries risks, so always conduct your own research and assess your risk tolerance before making decisions.
#202515 - priceactiontds - weekly update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Lower low major trend reversal or continuing of the bear trend? This is the question we will get an answer to most likely when futures open in a couple of hours. My assumption is that we will see a mind boggling rally for the MAG7 while small caps will be crashed like there is no tomorrow. Orange face man want the companies come crawling and bending the knee begging for an exemption and so far for some it worked. Market has respected the bear trend line and daily 20ema last week but I doubt those will hold next week. If they do, it would be a very strong sign by the bears that they remain in full control and we will most likely retest the lows over the next days/weeks.
current market cycle: bear trend but above 20046 it ends and we will be in a giant trading range
key levels: 16000 - 20100
bull case: Bulls want this trend to end and crush the hopes for a third leg down. They have received another gift in form of more news helping them, like the bears did when this whole thing started. It’s tough to trade when 1 tweet can move the markets 5-15%. I normally lean towards volatility but this is insanity. Above 20050 I honestly don’t see a reason why market can not do a measured move up to 22000. Bears have to cover shorts latest at 19500 and the move up could become that violent.
Invalidation is below 18000.
bear case: Bears are fine if we continue with the lower highs and stay inside the bear channel but the probability after the big tariff exemption is low. I expect remaining bears to rush for the exits on futures open and we could see a complete capitulation higher. If they somehow manage to stay below 19500, that would be a very strong sign and we will likely continue the bear trend and the chance for a third leg down would be there.
Invalidation is above 19500 (very low chance that 20000 is the big resistance if we make higher highs above 19500).
short term: Above 19500 I will be max bullish for a meltup to 21000 or 22000. This will most likely be a pure momentum trade and we could see a 5-10% move down this week as well but for now, my assumption is max bullish if futures open strong. Bears would have to stay below 19400 and make lower lows below 18000 for me to turn bear again.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-03-16: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. We had the clear W1 and W3 but now it’s messy. News have given bulls everything they dreamed of and if we make higher highs again, bear trend is over and my base case would be a trading range 16000 - 23000 for months if not years.
current swing trade: Swing long above 19400 for 20000 and likely 21000+
chart update: Nothing
MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 04/11/2025MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 04/11/2025 (Just because 😏)
📈18670 18820
📉18220 18060
Thanks to all my followers! Truly appreciate the support!
Please like and share for more NQ levels Tues & Thurs 🤓📈📉🎯💰
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
NQ: 169th trading session - recapYea so also nothing happened friday, I just noticed that overall everything is just off:
- Overall market was just too volatile this past week
- My psychology is absolutely f*cked
- Didn't stick to my plan
With the upcoming holidays (2 weeks) I will be relocking back in.
I got my psychology and my plan right. These next two weeks I'll be trading everyday, sticking to my plan and executing it (if I get setups) in a perfect way.
Also, really important: I'm excited again to face the markets, that's what counts.
Nasdaq Outlook (Apr 15–19)🧠 Nasdaq Outlook (Apr 15–19)
📌 Bias: Neutral → Bearish
📈 Bull Target (if bounce):
→ 19,200 – 19,600
📉 Bear Targets (if rejection):
→ 18,000
→ 17,500
→ 16,000–16,500
🗓️ Key Events
• Tue: Empire State Index
• Wed: Core Retail Sales, Powell 🧨
• Thu: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed
Price may rebalance D/W inefficiency early — then drop if macro aligns 🧩
📛 Disclaimer: Not financial advice. Educational only. Trade safe.
#NQ #NASDAQ #Futures #Macro #DayTrading #SoothingTrades
NQ Range (04-11-25)The forecast here is until the Monday Close, looking at the typical Long play from Friday - Monday. Expecting some games on this one, including some head fakes. Long to KL 19,389 and rejection would be the Short, pass hold Long. Short to any KL below will have the push/pull price action and will struggle to get lower. After Monday and should the NAZ still be inside this range look Short. The games usually come out on Friday's and in the Sunday-Monday Pre Open session. 30M Chart is below.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 4/11/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQM2025
- PR High: 18597.75
- PR Low: 18464.50
- NZ Spread: 297.25
Key scheduled economic events:
08:30 | PPI
Retraced 50% of Wednesday's range
- Rotating off 18400 zone pivot, above previous session close
- High volatility sentiment continues
Session Open Stats (As of 12:55 AM 4/11)
- Session Open ATR: 865.12
- Volume: 54K
- Open Int: 236K
- Trend Grade: Bear
- From BA ATH: -17.7% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 20954
- Mid: 19246
- Short: 16963
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed lower following news of additional tariffs on China. On the daily chart, the index failed to break above the 20-day moving average and pulled back to the 5-day MA, continuing its box-range movement. Since the 5-day MA is still acting as support, the current trend can still be seen as a sideways consolidation, with 18,500 acting as a central pivot level.
The MACD on the daily chart has not yet clearly broken above the Signal line, so it remains uncertain whether it will make a golden cross with additional upward momentum, or turn downward again. Thus, it’s best to adopt a neutral range-bound trading strategy, keeping strict stop-losses on both sides.
On the 240-minute chart, both the MACD and Signal line have moved above the zero line, entering a key area to observe whether the third wave of MACD upside begins after this box-range consolidation. Since the current price is correcting after a rebound from a double bottom, and is maintaining the center of the prior bullish candle, buying remains more favorable. Unless the previous day’s low is broken, it’s better to stay buy-biased.
Please note that today's PPI data release is scheduled, which may lead to increased volatility around the announcement time.
Crude Oil
Crude oil closed lower with a large bearish candle. On the daily chart, it failed to hold the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, breaking below the 5-day MA. The MACD continues its downward slope, and unless oil clearly reclaims the 10-day MA, the market will remain bear-biased.
There is resistance now at the 3-day and 5-day MAs, so it’s important to see whether further downside unfolds. As previously noted, the $59 level is a key support zone — watch closely for any breakdowns.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD is trending up and pulling the Signal line along, but both remain below the zero line. If oil continues in a box range but the MACD turns downward again and forms a dead cross, there could be another leg lower. For now, continue to focus on buying near the $59 level, and maintain a range-trading approach until further confirmation.
Gold
Gold closed higher with another strong rally. On the daily chart, the MACD has now crossed above the Signal line, generating a buy signal. However, this signal will only be valid if today’s candle closes as a bullish bar, so watching the daily close is critical.
Gold hit new all-time highs during the pre-market session, with the long-awaited 3,216 level, which has been the target since March, now within reach. Beyond this level, we enter the overshooting zone, where it’s difficult to define a precise top. Therefore, it's best to stick to dip-buying strategies, as safe-haven demand continues to surge.
Even though the MACD has crossed bullishly, divergence may form if the current MACD fails to exceed the previous peak. Avoid chasing long positions at the top; instead, look for entries during pullbacks.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD has climbed above the zero line, showing a strong one-way bullish trend. RSI across intraday charts is now in overbought territory, so it’s best to avoid short positions entirely for today.
Market Sentiment & VIX
Looking at the VIX index, the daily candle has once again broken above the 5-day MA, indicating that volatility could expand further at any time. With Trump’s remarks shaking markets, it’s impossible to predict what new developments might emerge over the weekend.
Avoid holding overnight positions due to heightened headline risk, and make sure to wrap up this trading week with solid risk management.
Wishing you a profitable trading day!
If you like my analysis, please follow me and give it a boost!
For additional strategies for today, check out my profile. Thank you!
Does History Repeat Itself? How Far Can the Nasdaq Fall?Let's examine the current 2025 correction on a logarithmic chart: the price movements show significant similarities to the February 2020 decline. At that time, the global crisis—then driven by COVID-19 panic—fundamentally influenced market movements, while now, trade uncertainties are generated by President Trump's aggressive tariff announcements.
The chart reveals that the Nasdaq is declining steeply, and technical levels play a decisive role: yesterday, the price bounced back from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. However, it is clear that supporting technical indicators—such as the break of the RSI convergence trend on the days triggering the decline—confirm the downward movement.
In the earlier 2020 decline, massive volume accompanied the initial weeks' movements, while this year's movement is characterized by steadily increasing volume. Nevertheless, the current volume peak falls short of the peak measured in the 2020 week (4.45 million vs. 6.8 million), indicating that the trend may continue with further declines.
Overall, technical analysis—the examination of logarithmic charts, the break of the RSI trend, and volume movements—suggests that the current correction may deepen further, and the Nasdaq's target price can be estimated between 14,500 and 15,000 points.
Observing a similar scenario in history, when global events triggered high volatility, it appears that market reactions now do not differ from past patterns. If the current negative trend continues, a further deepening of the correction is plausible, as the lag in market volume (4.45M vs. 6.8M) indicates that investors have not yet been able to offset the negative sentiment prevailing in the sector.
2025-04-10 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Big bear trend line is holding up and market printed a lower high. I expect lower highs and higher lows for much more time. By now you should know that I don’t make up stuff about trading ranges and a triangle is a form of a trading range. You buy low, sell high and scalp. Mark the 30% of the upper and lower bound of the range, trend lines and trade if market turns. It’s not rocket science. It’s about you against you and not letting emotions mess up your trading success.
current market cycle: bear trend valid until bear trend line broken but trading range a bit more likely right now. At least on lower time frames.
key levels: 16000 - 20000
bull case: Bulls want to keep this higher low much higher than 17200 and are trying above the breakout price 18360. Tomorrow we will see if they can get a second leg up and retest 19000. I have no opinion on that and will wait what the market will give me. Shorting below 18800 is bad, no matter what. Is 18450 a good buy for the bulls? Far from it. Where would you put your stop? 17900? Risk of that getting hit is very high.
Invalidation is below 16400.
bear case: Bears did good at keeping this a lower high and casually selling down for 1469 points. In the grand scheme of things it’s around a 50% retracement of yesterday, so currently a “normal” move if you just look at this week. Markets are broken and someone bigger will fail soon. They always do. Swing shorts are ok at 18400 if you can add higher again. Risk of a retest 19000 is too big for a trade with a tight stop. If I had to guess, I think we will retest 17500 tomorrow and close somewhere around 18000.
short term: Neutral around 17900-18700 and only interested in fading the extremes in given range.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-03-16: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. W3 overshot it by 1000 points. Now my bearish bias is gone and I will wait how this unfolds. Big uncertainty for this year but I think this selling is overdone and big bois are buying with both hands below 17000.
trade of the day: Shorting yesterday’s high was the obvious trade of the day since market only made lower highs since Globex open. Tough day in any case because the swings are so wild that the risk is gigantic on any given trade. Not the best environment for beginners or people with small accounts. Trade small and be humble.
NQ Range (04-10-25)Staying with the Range 19,400 - 18,200. Looking for 18,200 retest to hold or not. Was that insider trading yesterday? Seemed like it. Anyway, we can add that to the bag of tricks, curveballs, etc. Yesterday was a major Danger Zone, U Turn, Drop Offset, Info Leak, Algo Long Only move that happened during the Dead Zone. With O/N -400 points tonight, we may be setting up for a 18,200 retest. Big action and bigger reaction may be in store after the one sided perfectly timed manufactured move from yesterday.
Nasdaq is not done yet, dont be fooled! On Wednesday, April 9, 2025, the Nasdaq experienced a significant 15% surge, driven by news catalysts. This upward movement aligned with the price reaching the daily Fair Value Gap (FVG), effectively absorbing all internal liquidity at that level. The critical juncture now lies in how the Nasdaq (NQ) performs over the next few days. Should we see a retest and breach of the recent highs from this news-driven rally, it could signal a strong potential for the index to achieve new all-time highs (ATH). Conversely, if the momentum falters and fails to sustain these levels, a swift decline toward 16,000 could materialize, with a further potential downside target of 14,000.