MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 03/17/2025MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 03/17/2025
📈19850 19940
📉19670 19570
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
NQ1! trade ideas
MNQ 12:00PM Trade EntryThis is one of the trades we took today which was very good trade, however due to me targetting the buyside liquidity all the way at 19,788.75 caused me to not realize my profits at the 16:00 mark. I was full of emotions today and I believe its just old patterns that I am working on breaking.
We had a great trading week last week, so we must remain level headed and focused. I can see here that my problem today was just not taking profits due to wanting to hold for bigger trades.
This is something we must break from and fix in our trading. When I am more focused on quick trades targeting near term liquidity pools it is when I am most confident. But I realize as I start getting better trades I tend to try to hold on to them more, specially after last week where we caught over 800+ points.
We were able to catch over 1,000+ points today, the sad part is... I was at work and did not enter on my funded challenge, I entered it on paper demo just to see the results of the trade and let me tell you, it broke my heart to not have entered because it FLEW to my TP.
This is part of the journey though, and I realize I must get a hold of these emotions and anxiety to get into trades and make money.
3/17/2025 - 12:01pm -12:14pm (13 minute trade)
3:00 was our entry
16:00 Should have been our TP.
(We should've realized that the next 1h candle that opened at 1pm would have a manipulation lower)
We could've utilized the IFVG once again at 12:46pm for the entry for the perfect trade idea. This was around the area where I entered on my DEMO.
- We used the 1H FVG which was used as support near its 50%
- Volume Imbalance from 11:33am -11:34am candles. It was used as support
- We also respected the Bearish FVG (turned IFVG) from the 11:33am candle.
We can also see that we create a inverse head and shoulders pattern 2 times near this area.
The first one we caught the trade, just failed to take TP at 16:00 mark at the 19,741.50 high.
The second Inverse head and shoulders pattern occurred 1:03-1:05pm. This was also a slight tap above the 1h bullish fvg which was the final piece needed to take price higher to fill in the 4h SIBI from the March 10, 2025 6:00am candle.
We ended up taking a total loss of $214 on our Top step account today after all trades.
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NQ Range (03-17-25)Monday and 2nd half of Long Play from Friday. Arrow is range and not expecting much. Sideways to snail move higher or Monday pop stall out and drop to lower yellow arrow or below. FYI, the weaker and slower the NAZ moves the higher is can just snail/inchworm higher into the next O/N safe zone. Careful Shorting 1st, wait for the fake/dirty move higher to fizzle out.
Nasdaq 100 (NQ1!) - Key Levels and Market Outlook 📌 Market Structure
🔹 Key Support Zone (~19,170 USD)
The price recently bounced off this level, which has acted as a significant support area.
The highlighted gray-blue zone represents a demand area where buyers stepped in.
🔹 Intermediate Resistance (~19,800 - 20,200 USD)
The price is currently testing this zone, which was previously a key breakdown area.
A strong rejection here could push the index back towards the 19,170 USD support.
🔹 Major Supply Zone (~21,500 - 22,400 USD)
The previous peak around 22,400 USD saw strong selling pressure, leading to a sharp drop.
The red-shaded area represents a heavy supply zone where sellers were dominant.
📉 Bearish Scenario
A rejection at 19,800 - 20,200 USD could lead to another retest of 19,170 USD.
A break below 19,170 USD would expose the index to further downside, possibly towards 18,500 - 18,200 USD.
📈 Bullish Scenario
A break and close above 19,800 - 20,200 USD could trigger a move towards 21,000 - 21,500 USD.
A sustained breakout above 22,400 USD would invalidate the bearish structure and signal a continuation of the uptrend.
🔎 Conclusion:
The Nasdaq is at a pivotal moment, hovering around key resistance at 19,800 - 20,200 USD.
A breakout or rejection from this zone will determine the short-term direction.
Key factors to watch include economic data, Fed policy, and overall market sentiment.
IDEA: Buy NASDAQBuying NASDAQ.
I'm buying on the CME_MINI:NQ1! , taking into account:
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is in oversold territory.
The Fear/Greed Index is showing panic.
The VIX (Volatility Index) is at a high level.
I'm simply looking to make a buying trade and sell on a bounce, as the trend could still be bearish.
Bull Flag brokenWe have a great set up where a bull flag is broken.he gauges were set to open mixed after a sell-off that saw the S&P 500 (^GSPC) enter correction territory and the Dow book its worst weekly performance since March 2023. Markets have been buffeted by economic slowdown fears and uncertainty over Trump's unpredictable tariff policy.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 3/17/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2025
- PR High: 19686.25
- PR Low: 19559.50
- NZ Spread: 283.5
Key scheduled economic events:
08:30 | Retail Sales (Core|MoM)
Index futures contract rollover week begins
- Next contract month June (M) already over 60% of current month
- Advertising rotation above previous week high
- Retracing ~25% of Friday's range
Session Open Stats (As of 1:15 AM 3/17)
- Session Open ATR: 475.10
- Volume: 36K
- Open Int: 243K
- Trend Grade: Neutral
- From BA ATH: -12.6% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 22667
- Mid: 21525
- Short: 19814
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
#202511 - priceactiontds - weekly update - nasdaq e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Let’s take this from the weekly chart. Market has not dipped below the 2024-09 low but that was way too much to expect for bears. 14% down in 4 weeks straight selling is beyond unsustainable but it’s also very very unlikely that this was it and we just go up again. My thesis is a new bear trend until proven otherwise. How would bulls do that? Anything above 21100 would be too high for a retracement in a strong bear trend and it would likely fit a trading range narrative. Trading range would mean 2024-04 low at 17900 to 2024-12 ath at 22450. Bear trend is drawn on the chart and would lead to at least the 50% retracement of this bull trend since 2022, down to around 17500. When will we know? If market retraces below or to the 50% around 20400 and strongly reverses down again, I see my theory confirmed so far. For next week I can’t see anything but a big short squeeze to trap late bears. 19140 was such a weird place to reverse and I can only see this already being strong bulls buying the dip and trapping everyone who thought we were going for 19000.
current market cycle: strong bear trend but pullback expected
key levels: 19140 - 20500
bull case: Bulls have only going for them that this selling is beyond overdone and climactic and Friday' was a very strong bullish day on huge volume. My bear target was 19600 and we almost printed 19000. 20000 is the first obvious target for a pullback but I think a 50% retracement to 20700 is doable, since the daily 20ema is also at 20400. I expect the market to fight the real battle for either the new bear trend or a multi-year trading range around 20000.
Invalidation is below 19100.
bear case: Bears showed more strength and got below my measured move target of 19600 but failed above the 2024-09 low at 18867. Last time bears made this much money was 2024-07 where we corrected for 16.91% to then rally 25.59% higher over the next 19 weeks. Hand on heart I do think it’s much more likely we will see that pattern from 2024 repeated than a new bear trend. A trading range 19000 - 22450 is much more likely than going down to 16000. As of now. Can this change if the US really goes into a bigger recession? Of course but for now this is front-running the possible risk because we got up so much the past years that funds really need to secure some profits this time. For next week I have absolutely nothing for the bears. This selling is overdone and market is so much more likely to squeeze late bears, that I won’t look for any short trades until we see 20000 or higher.
Invalidation is above 21100.
short term: Heavy bullish bias for 20000 and likely 20400. Above 20500 air would get real thin again, if this was the start of a bear market. For now I think the pattern from 2024-07 is more likely to repeat than the bear trend as drawn on the chart.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-03-16: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. We don’t know if we have printed the W1 of the new bear trend or repeat the pattern from 2024, where we sold of very strong to reverse even more strongly and make new all time highs. Market needs a bounce and around 20000/20500 we will see the real battle for the next weeks.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Updated the possible bear trend and added a bullish alternative to show what we did in 2024. For now the bullish path is more likely.
Nasdaq (March Contract) - Massive Meltdown!Stocks have had a rough week as uncertainty over President Donald Trump's tariff shifts whipsawed markets and overshadowed otherwise encouraging signals about the economy.
With 4 continuous weeks of bearish price action, it does not look like there is a end in sight. Sellside liquidity @ 20248.75 has not been used as a form of resistance, indicating weakness in the markets.
Going forward, my bias is neutral going into Sundays opening price
idea on a chartNasdaq index in correction territory, many investors are trying to decide if it's a buying opportunity or if they should run for the hills. A correction is marked by an index declining 10% from its all-time high, which isn't quite as severe as a bear market. Additionally, stocks aren't necessarily a blanket buy or sell right now. Instead, I think there are certain ones that look like great bargains and others that still seem overvalued.