Market insights
FTSE/mib: Politics Driven MarketMost traders might be focused on the Dow or the DAX. Sometimes it´s helpfully to watch if a move is broad-based and simultaneous in major stockmarkets globally.
In the next 2 month there are now two major elections held in Europe setting the tone for stockmarkets.
Most traders might be focused next wednesday on the FOMC meeting. But same day is the Dutch election wich might trigger European Stockmarkets. Italy is a part of this and again large specs betting against Italy, obviously.
FTSE/mib: Politics Driven European MarketsTo bed against Italy might have many reasons. One reason is the idea that after Brexit and Trump now populism in Europe is on the rise.
But is not.
Investors selling stocks and bonds short awaiting that in the Netherlands next wednesday Geert Wilders is winning the election by "landslide". Since few days polls in France, Germany and Italy showing that European voters are turning away from far right parties. The reason is, what short sellers thought might to earn money on: The Brexit and Donald Trump.
European voters are more and more upset about Trump and same time they see that the BREXIT is nothing else than a deadlock.
Get the point: Polls are changing dramatically against far right parties in the last 10 days and you can see it in the charts. If ever the Netherlands election is not won by the far right anti-Islam and anti-EU Party PVV by landslides than shortsellers might be forced to cover their shorts. This could cause a spike for all European Indexes and thats why it might be a good idea, to watch Italy´s, France, Germany´s and the Dutch Stockmarkets simultaneous and also the EuroSTOXX 50.
FTMIB Italian Index Possible Elliott Wave CountNo many to say here, while looking for $Nikkei higher $FTMIB aligns with possible 5th wave extension towards the +20k..
FTSE-MIB (MIB) Italian banking system is experiencing a distress; but also political factors are important. There is the possibility of early political this year. The italian economy is not growing and the national debt continues to grow insesorabile; pressing demands for corrective fiscal measures by the EU.
Get the latest news about EuropeIt was 2016th "big short" : Especially US-Invstors betting billions of US-Dollar against Italy. They thought it might be simple: Matteo Renzi would be forced to resign on Dezember 5th 2016 (what happened). Than Italian Banks are going to fail (what not happend) and finaly Italy will leave the Euro and the European Union (Ixit after Brexit).
And now guess what...
... Italy´s Five Star Movement founder Beppo Grillo today annouced nothing else than a U-Turn:
Quote:
Italy's maverick 5-Star Movement should cut ties with the anti-European Union U.K. Independence Party (UKIP) and consider hooking up with the Liberals in the European Parliament, 5-Star founder Beppe Grillo said on Sunday.
If the switch in allegiance goes ahead, it would see 5-Star enter mainstream European politics and move away from the anti-system fringes, a shift that might reassure other EU capitals that have grown uneasy about its rising popularity.
Writing on his blog, Grillo said his party was in talks with the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) and asked 5-Star members to back the initiative in an online ballot.
ALDE is headed by former Belgian prime minister Guy Verhofstadt. He is a keen European federalist and his strong, pro-EU views would seem at odds with the euroskeptic 5-Star.
Source: www.cnbc.com
MIB @ daily @ 2nd nearst index (of 57) to it`s alltime low priceThis is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!!
Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ...
.zip (with PDF`s) @ my Google Drive
In percents away from all-time high & low by last close (57 Share Indices)
drive.google.com
Best regards :)
Aaron
Italy Is Ready Now For 20k
If ever a few sentences can change a lot than this might be Beppo Grillos announcement from today:
Quote:
Italy's maverick 5-Star Movement should cut ties with the anti-European Union U.K. Independence Party (UKIP) and consider hooking up with the Liberals in the European Parliament, 5-Star founder Beppe Grillo said on Sunday.
If the switch in allegiance goes ahead, it would see 5-Star enter mainstream European politics and move away from the anti-system fringes, a shift that might reassure other EU capitals that have grown uneasy about its rising popularity.
Writing on his blog, Grillo said his party was in talks with the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) and asked 5-Star members to back the initiative in an online ballot.
ALDE is headed by former Belgian prime minister Guy Verhofstadt. He is a keen European federalist and his strong, pro-EU views would seem at odds with the euroskeptic 5-Star.
Source: www.cnbc.com
FTSE/mib: Ready for 20.000There are 3 Indices closing in to 20.000:
The Nikkei-225, DJIA 0.60% , FTSE/mib
Watch them all to cross 20k soon.
Market CapitulationWhat is "Market Capitulation I"?
By definition, capitulation means to surrender or give up. In financial circles, this term is used to indicate the point in time when investors have decided to give up on trying to recapture lost gains as a result of falling stock prices. Suppose a stock you own has dropped by 10%. There are two options that can be taken: you can wait it out and hope the stock begins to appreciate, or you can realize the loss by selling the stock. If the majority of investors decides to wait it out, then stock price will likely remain relatively stable.
The significance of capitulation lies in its implications. Many market professionals consider it to be a sign of a bottom in prices and consequently a good time to buy stocks.
Read more: What is market capitulation? | Investopedia www.investopedia.com
So let´s talk about market capitulation on the "up side"
"Market Capitulation" is usually well know for (quick) falling stockmarkets. If ever a stockmarket is going up so fast like we see this right now than "behavioral finance" is the the same. Right now most of investors do not believe in this rally. If you follow the sentiment on IG Markets today you can read this about Retail Investors sentiment
75 % short DJIA
73 % short SPX
75% short DAX
84 % (!) long Gold
If ever we "invert" some sentences of this definition we get some important issues:
- By definition, capitulation means to surrender or give up. In financial circles, this term is used to indicate the point in time when investors have d ecided to give up on trying to recapture lost gains as a result of ----> rising stock prices
- However, if the majority of investors decides to capitulate and give u p (expectations of falling stockprices) on the stock, then there will be a sharp ----> rise in its price. When this occurrence is significant across the entire market, it is known as market capitulation.
- The significance of capitulation lies in its implications. Many market professionals consider it to be a sign of a top in prices and consequently a good time to sell stocks.
Read more ---> "up dates"
Watch Italy For Another Spike To The Up Side
Have look to this powerfull momentum Italy`s FTSE/Mib ist showing all those Investors betting Billions of US-Dollar on a crashing stockmarket, the immediately failure of at least 8 Italien Banks, followed by a crash in the European Banking Sektors followed by a political change to right wing populists parties and finally the meltdown of the Euro and the EU.
All this was expected ---> for sure on Dezember 4th.
Now see the answer of a stockmarket wich was shorted so massively. But it´s not only about the past tradingdays. People do not believe in any rally in any European Stockmarket.
Let us see in the left 7 trading days in Europe until the End of this year what kind of answer the Italian Stockmarket might give again.
Italian Stock Market Update 12-18-16Last week the Italian stock market (MIB) pushed above the .382 retracement of the bear move from July 2015 to June 2016 and has now reached the next resistance area of the double top in the low 19,000 area.
The daily RSI has a bearish divergence in the overbought zone that is confirmed by a bearish divergence on the MACD histogram.
There is a high probability the MIB has either made a top or is very close to one. If in the short term MIB can continue to move up, it probably won't go much above 19216 - the March 2016 top.
The MIB has been moving up with other international stock markets, many of which are also near tipping points - see my posts on the SPX and other US stock indexes.
If the MIB declines it will probably retrace at a minimum to the June 2016 bottom.
Mark
Italian Stock Market at Important ResistanceThis weekend Italy's 3rd largest bank, Banca Monte Dei Paschi is expected to be bailed out. The Italian MIB has rallied to the .382 retracement level of the 2015 - 2016 bear market. The rally from the low of the year is very choppy with a lot of overlap - the signature of a counter trend correction. The 2015 - 2016 decline counts as a extended five wave Elliott pattern. If a top is near, the subsequent decline could at a minimum go back to the low of the year. A larger decline could be as big as the 2015 -2016 bear market.
If MIB turns down soon it could cause other European stock indices to decline and could also be bearish for US stocks.
Mark
$MIB40 ($FTMIB) vs $DAX ($GER30) into Greek 2015 referendumThe overlay shows very similar price action in the three months running into the referendum. The only difference is that the MIB appears to have passed it's low point and is on the way back.
Remember that a few weeks after the Greek referendum there was the huge crash of 24 Aug 2015.
Italian constitutional referendum & the widely expected crash
A constitutional referendum will be held in Italy on Sunday 4 December 2016. Voters will be asked whether they approve of amending the Italian Constitution to reform the appointment and powers of the Parliament of Italy, as well as the partition of powers of State, Regions, and administrative entities.
Source: en.wikipedia.org
All known polls saying that Matteo Renzi is going to loose this referendum. As mentioned before in the following trading ideas the outcome of the Referendum is absolutely clear: If the referendum falis Mr. Renzi says he will step down. Investors, and many European governments, fear a NO vote will turn Italy into the "third domino" in a toppling international order, after Brexit and the election of Donald Trump. Everyone in Italy believes that NO is how Italians should vote.
Thisfore everything is clear and what "suprise" can be left for sunday? Hedgefonds are betting against Italiy, obviously, heavily.
In case you are one of those investors and you are absolutely sure about this upcomming crash by monday night what is the reason that you are closing some short trades today?
You dont believe that this happened today? Than watch closely the chart above and think what this chart means.
Watch Tomorrow Closely the Italian Stockmarket!
Source: MarketWatch.com
Italian banks were among biggest advancers, rebounding from sharp losses in Monday’s action. The country’s banking gauge, the FTSE Italia All-Share Banks Sector Index IT8300, +3.23% , slumped 3.9% to a three-month low on Monday, but rose 2.4% in Tuesday’s action. Italy’s FTSE MIB index I945, +1.40% rose 0.8% to 16,343.89 on Tuesday, following Monday’s 1.8% fall.
I am still neutral for Italy but i am watching closely any long entry if ever the pre announced Armageddon on monday will not occur.
The Next Brexit is to come: Investors selling ItalyThis is the reason why:
Investors this time want to make everything better than before. Brexit and the US-Election caused two panic sell offs before. So what can you do better than selling Europe before on next sunday the next "Brexit" will occur and will cause the next panic sell offon next Monday?
But is this how stockmarkets are working?
All Investors know before that a crash is comming on next monday and all Investors are able to go short and all are making profit on next monday?
Do not make any mistakes: The polls are clear. Matteo Renzi will loose the upcomming Referendum by sunday December 4th, will resign probably same day followed by 8 Italien Banks going directely bankrupt next day followed by leaving Euro und the European Union. So it´s written in the news. The perfekt Storm.
What i am wondering about ist how this might work in the opinion of all this investors wich are shorting the market or wich are afraid to buy any uncertainty or wich are not willing to climb a wall of worries. Everyone knows all facts now. What will be "new" on sunday if everything happens what you can read in any newspaper all arround the world?
I am neutral for this market but i will keep an close eye on the FTSE/mib if ever the widely expected sell off on monday dec. 5th 2016 or any following day might not occur.
The black line in the chart showes the expeted day for the next "Brexit" Crash on Monday Dezember 5th. As i said before: Do not make any mistake: Matteo Renzi is far behind to win this voting - but everyone know this.
FTSE/Mib: Watch this Index closely!The "Renzi" Referendum in Italy is comming soon - but look how the Italian Stockmarket "runs": There are no lower lows until today. Matteo Renzi ist going to loose this upcomming Referundum next Sunday (Dec. 4th 2016). The predictions are all same: Italian banks will follow up with bancruptcy, Italia will first leave the Euro and the European Union later.
But - can you read this in this chart?
In the month bevor you see mutch more downside risk and downside momentum than today, only few days before the voting. Maybe you also be aware that hedgefunds are betting against Italian Bonds and Stocks. Thisfore you might expect mutch more downside volatility but it isn´t there.
.
My reading for this market is more bullish than bearish. I am looking today for a "neutral" bias but will change it anytime to "bullish" if there is no downnside momentum before or after the voting next sunday.
IATLAY40 DAILY VIEWWe had big sell off during last couple of days and if price manage to breaks white trendline there is high chance we going to have continuation move to downside. I expect to reach the target from triangle pattern at around 14700 level.
Another possibility is that we have inverted head and shoulders pattern in development and price will bouce back with target as on chart.
