USDX trade ideas
Bearish reversal?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 99.24
1st Support: 98.27
1st Resistance: 99.97
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DXY warning of an incoming bear market?The DXY is into major multifactor support on the weekly timeframe. We have 2 weekly trendlines intersecting right at the 97.00 level. The first connects the highs from March 2020 through the lows of July 2023 to where we are now. The second is much larger and goes all the way back to 2007, connecting the lows from 2007, 2011 and 2021. We could see a major bounce here for months and some companies have reported during earnings that the sole reason for their improved earnings was due to weakness in the dollar. What happens to earnings when the DXY goes back into bull mode???? Time will tell...
Interesting few days ahead... USD pairs approaching key levelsDXY is finishing a HTF consolidation and is approaching medium-term key areas. Other USD pairs are also in areas where they could aggressively turn around. EURUSD just finished a H4 3-touch continuation flag and is starting to stall on the 3rd touch, suggesting indecision in the markets.
Considering the news events in the next 3 days, starting today with USD advanced GDP data, we could see volatility kicking in on these key levels. We do need a catalyst to push price into a larger directional move, and we are prime positioned for the next leg. Technically, a breakout in both directions would make sense in these areas. Time to set alarms and be vigilant but not jump into trades too early, considering NFP on Friday as well.
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📈 Simplified Trading Rules:
> Follow a Valid Sequence
> Wait for Continuation
> Confirm Entry (valid candlestick pattern)
> Know When to Exit (SL placement)
Remember, technical analysis is subjective; develop your own approach. I use this format primarily to hold myself accountable and to share my personal market views.
The pairs I publish here are usually discussed in detail in my Weekly Forex Forecast (WFF) and are now showing further developments worth mentioning.
⚠ Ensure you have your own risk management in place and always stick to your trading plan.
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DXY (US Dollar Index)After breaking out of the downtrend and successfully testing the previous resistance level following the breakout from the Falling Wedge, the US Dollar Index looks poised for upward movement. This could temporarily slow down crypto due to dollar strength. 💵
July was nice, but August has historically been the worst month of the year — and we need to be prepared for that.
THE DOLLAR INDEX HAS FINALLY BROKEN THE DOWNWARD TRENDLINETVC:DXY (Dollar Index) has been in massive downward trend from the beginning of the year 2025 which was very bad for the Dollar. as from the previous weeks, we have been seeing the dollar index making some significant moves is very interesting as this will cause pairs like USDJPY to start pumping as well, because USDJPY is correlates positively with DXY why pairs like EURUSD,GBPUSD AND GOLD will be dropping. As a matter of fact let's see close the daily candle above the current.resistance level before anticipating for any massive move.
NOTE: THIS IS NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE DO YOUR RESEARCH.
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US Dollar Index: Down YTD, But at a 5-Week HighThe U.S. dollar plays a leading role in the performance of U.S. stocks versus international stocks. The greenback endured its worst first-half performance since 1973, helping ex-U.S. equities post massive absolute and relative gains through June. But could the narrative be shifting? And what might it mean for investors?
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) sits at a five-week high ahead of the July Federal Reserve interest rate decision and the key July jobs report to be released on August 1. Up four sessions in a row, the dollar appears poised to post its best month since last December (in fact, the DXY's first positive month of 2025). If it’s the start of a protracted recovery, then the “U.S. exceptionalism” trade could be back in vogue over the second half, resulting in the same old story of U.S. over international in the stock market.
US Dollar Index (DXY) Reaches One-Month HighUS Dollar Index (DXY) Reaches One-Month High
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has risen to its highest level since early July. According to media reports, the bullish sentiment in the market is driven by the following factors:
→ Optimism around US trade agreements. A new trade deal with the EU — which includes a 15% tariff on European goods — is being perceived by the market as favourable for the United States.
→ Confidence in the resilience of the US economy. Strong Q2 corporate earnings have acted as an additional bullish catalyst. Investors may have started covering short positions against the dollar, viewing concerns over a US slowdown as overstated.
→ Expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates on hold.
From a technical standpoint, today’s DXY chart reflects strengthening bullish momentum.
Technical Analysis of the DXY Chart
Two U-shaped formations (A and B) that developed over the summer have created a bullish сup and рandle pattern — a formation that suggests waning bearish pressure, as evidenced by the shallower second dip.
This setup points to the potential for a bullish breakout above the trendline (marked in red) that has defined the downward movement in the DXY throughout the first half of 2025.
As previously analysed, there are signs that the dollar index may have found a base following a period of decline. This could indicate a shift in market sentiment and the possible end of the recent bearish phase.
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DOLLAR INDEX U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and US 10-Year Treasury Yield
Dollar Index (DXY) — will reclaim 103-102 level if it crosses 100 mark currently is at 98.34 and faces immediate supply roof ,a make or break situation awaits dollar buyers .
Over the past month, the Dollar Index has gained about 2%, although it is still down over 5% compared to a year ago. The recent uptick follows a period of volatility and selling, with investors recalibrating expectations after the resolution of trade risk premiums and recent U.S.–EU trade deals.
US 10-Year Treasury Yield keep rising after its drop from 4.193% in early july to 4.5% on 17th
Yield on the US 10-year Treasury note is currently about 4.42% , modestly higher than last week and unchanged from the previous session.
Current levels reflect ongoing uncertainty regarding future Federal Reserve policy moves, cautious optimism regarding U.S. economic strength, and some abatement of safe-haven flows after recent global trade developments.
Relationship & Market Synopsis
DXY and the 10-year yield typically have a positive correlation: When Treasury yields rise, the dollar often follows, as higher yields make dollar-denominated assets more attractive to global investors. Conversely, falling yields can weigh on the dollar. However, in 2025, there have been periods of divergence due to external shocks and policy uncertainty.
Current setup: Both DXY and the 10Y yield are rising modestly, signaling a shift to a more constructive tone for the U.S. dollar as risk sentiment stabilizes and investors scale back some safe-haven trades. Recent U.S. economic resilience and fading tariff fears have reduced the need for defensive flows, supporting both yields and the dollar.
Forward outlook: Market consensus expects limited further upside for Treasury yields unless there are strong surprises in U.S. data or Federal Reserve communication. The DXY is projected to stabilize near current levels or drift higher on persistent U.S. economic momentum.
Summary:
Both the Dollar Index and US 10-year Treasury yield are modestly higher as of July 29, 2025. Their positive price action reflects improving US growth prospects, reduced global risk premiums, and recalibrated market expectations on Fed policy. While their relationship is generally positive, periods of divergence have occurred in 2025 due to trade, policy, and economic shocks. Currently, both are showing moderate gains as investor sentiment stabilize
Will DXY Get Supported With Fresh US-EU Trade Agreement?Macro approach:
- The US dollar index has traded mixed since last week, pressured by lingering trade uncertainty and cautious market sentiment ahead of major economic events.
- Dovish Fed expectations and subdued US inflation continued to weigh on the greenback, while news of a fresh US-EU trade agreement and upcoming talks with China contributed to two-way price action.
- Economic data reflected a resilient labor market but flagged moderating US growth, with investors closely watching forthcoming GDP figures and the Fed's policy stance.
- The US dollar index may remain range-bound as markets await catalysts, including the Fed meeting, the 2Q GDP release, and key labor market data.
Technical approach:
- DXY surged and closed above the descending trendline and the resistance at around 98600, indicating an early signal of a shift in the market trend.
- If DXY maintains above 98600, it may retest the following resistance at 99400, confluence with EMA78.
- On the contrary, closing below the descending trendline and EMA21 may prompt a retest of the swing low at 96.60.
Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
US Dollar Index (DXY) - 4 Hour Chart4-hour chart from CAPITALCOM displays the recent performance of the US Dollar Index (DXY), showing a current value of 98.190 with a slight decline of 0.009 (-0.01%). The chart highlights key price levels, including a recent sell signal at 98.189 and a buy signal at 98.243, with a resistance zone marked between 98.195 and 98.479. The index has experienced fluctuations, with notable drops and recoveries, and is currently trending near the 98.190 level as of July 29, 2025.
IS A HIGHER LOW SECURED ON THE DXY? LET'S FIND OUTIn this weekend analysis, I am still paying attention to the higher time frame downtrend on the dollar index while acknowledging the higher low support on the daily chart forming an inverse Head and Shoulders pattern. On the 4H and lower timeframes we have a strong ceiling made up of the 200SMA and 50SMA resistance level and need to break through from the 20SMA Line in the sand support. This weeks trade plan and thesis is for price to hold above the 20 SMA on the 4H timeframe expecting a potential dip to the zone of 97.128 (liquidity zone) and then bounce up to a weekly target of 97.7. This Thesis is INVALIDATED if a candle opens and closes below 97.015. I wish everyone a great trading week. Thank for supporting my publications and trade ideas. Cheers!!!
DXY LOCAL SHORT|
✅DXY is going up now
But a strong resistance level is ahead at 98.948
Thus I am expecting a pullback
And a move down towards the target of 98.451
SHORT🔥
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