ETHEUR to €4,500 soon - 2 Possible Long SetupsTechnical Outlook: Elliott Wave Structure
On the daily timeframe, ETHEUR has clearly developed into a 5-wave impulsive structure according to Elliott Wave Theory:
1. Wave (1): Initiated after the breakout of the consolidation channel ranging from €1,925 area to €2,475 area, confirmed by a significant Volume Delta spike, indicating strong institutional buying interest.
2. Wave (2): Standard corrective pullback, finding support above prior resistance at €2,900-€2,920 area, maintaining the bullish structure.
3. Wave (3): The strongest impulsive leg so far, extending sharply as expected for a Wave 3, with momentum and volume expansion up until €4,100 area.
4. Wave (4): A corrective phase, relatively shallow towards the €3,500 area, suggesting continued bullish strength and market confidence.
5. Wave (5) (in progress): Price action has already started its move higher, with the potential to retest and break the €4,500–4,520 area.
A sustained break above €4,100 will likely confirm Wave (5) continuation, targeting €4,500 as the 1st Fibonacci extension target of wave 4 and potentially higher levels if momentum carries through.
Fundamental Outlook: Fed’s Dovish Shift
Beyond the technicals, fundamentals are also aligning with Ethereum’s bullish scenario:
• Federal Reserve Policy: After political pressure from Trump, Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently signaled that the Fed will likely proceed with rate cuts as early as September.
• Market Impact: Lower interest rates generally reduce the attractiveness of yield-bearing assets and support risk-on sentiment, boosting equities and cryptocurrencies.
• Ethereum’s Role: With institutional adoption growing and ETH’s upcoming upgrades enhancing scalability, dovish Fed policy could act as a catalyst for renewed inflows.
Key Levels to Watch
• Immediate Resistance: €4,100
• Major Resistance: €4,520 (Wave 5 target zone)
• Support Levels: €3,360 and €2,470 in case of corrective retracements
Trade Setup 1
• Entry level: €3,600-€3,650 area at the retest of the correction channel of wave 4
• Stop Loss Level: €3,480 below wave's 4 lows
• Take Profit Level: €4,100 at previous highs
• A more conservative entry with a R:R of 2.92
Trade Setup 2
• Entry level: €4,050 at current market levels
• Stop Loss Level: €3,900 below wave's 4 recent lows
• Take Profit Level: €4,450-€4,500 at 1.618 Fib extension of wave 4
• A more aggressive entry with a R:R of 6.91
Conclusion
ETHEUR’s price structure on the daily chart supports the view that the pair is in Wave (5) of an impulsive Elliott cycle, with further upside potential toward €4,500+. Combined with supportive fundamentals from the Fed’s dovish policy stance, Ethereum is well-positioned to benefit from a macro tailwind into Q3–Q4.
Disclaimer
This analysis is provided for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or trading guidance. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
