ETH Theoretical Forecasting - Was a new Bear Channel born?I am always looking for structural signals, trying to identify where I can be tricked by the makers or my own bias. If we cannot get past 4570 and get rejected here, a new bear channel can form (purple). We need at least two points of support + resistance to consider any channel. A drop could only target an area that I thought might get filled (4238) if it was fast and sharp at NY futures open on a gap down - It's a nothing burger if we blaze past the top purple line on this move. Would be invalidated.
ETHUSD trade ideas
Theoretical Forecast: Will ETH hit $3950 Local Golden Major Fib?ETH has followed a path based on a new bearish channel found yesterday. In my opinion, $3950 is the most important fib to hold. This is not only a local golden major, but it is exactly where ETH broke out of a monthly Bullish Pennant. After years of using that trend line as resistance, would it not be fair to retest and confirm it as support? I apologize in advance to those who do not appreciate my charting methods. I am a channel trader. Good luck.
ETH/USD (Ethereum, 2H timeframe.ETH/USD (Ethereum, 2H timeframe, Bitstamp) already marked bearish targets.
Current price: ~4,229 USD
Resistance above: ~4,300 – 4,340 USD (green zone, broken down)
First target zone: ~3,950 – 3,900 USD
Second deeper target zone: ~3,600 – 3,560 USD
📉 Based on my setup, the targets are:
Target 1: ~3,900 USD
Target 2: ~3,560 USD (if selling pressure continues)
ETH — Right-Angled Broadening BreakoutEthereum (ETH) has completed a Right-Angled Descending Broadening Pattern that developed over a period of 515 days. Such long-term structures are rare and often mark significant turning points in the market.
🔎 Pattern Breakdown
A–E → swings inside the broadening formation.
F → breakout above the flat resistance.
G (anticipated) → Retest of the breakout zone near $4000, where former resistance may establish itself as support.
The flat top resistance between $4000–$4100 has already given way. A successful retest and hold above this zone would confirm breakout validity and strengthen the probability of continuation toward ATH and beyond.
Trade Setup View
Retest entry zone (G): ~$4000
Invalidation (Stop-Loss): To be determined based on price action during the retest
TP1: Retest of ATH $4867
TP2: $5390
Final target (measured move): $6800
Risk-to-Reward: 1:7+ potential
Why $6800?
The measured move of a broadening formation is its full height projected upward from the breakout point:
Broadening low: $1383.26
Broadening high: $4109
➡️ Height = $2725.74
Add that to the breakout zone (~$4100) → $6825. Rounded, that gives a final target of $6800.
💡 Educational Takeaway
Right-Angled Descending Broadening Formations show growing volatility with buyers holding a ceiling steady while sellers run out of steam. Once that flat resistance breaks, momentum usually shifts in favour of the bulls. Since this one lasted over 500 days, the breakout isn’t just noise. It’s a macro signal that could define ETH’s next major trend leg.
Level to Watch Closely:
$4000 → the expected retest (G). Holding here would be a strong confirmation that ETH is ready to aim for ATH and price discovery.
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ETH/USD: Could ETH Surge Past $5,000 This Week?Over the next seven days, Ethereum (ETH) is projected to experience moderate bullish momentum, potentially reaching a price range between $4,800 and $5,000.
Currently, ETH is trading at approximately $4,852.49, reflecting a recent uptick of 14.33%. This positive movement is attributed to favorable macroeconomic indicators, including expectations of an interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which has historically supported risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
Technical analysis suggests that ETH is trading above key support levels and is approaching resistance zones. If the price breaks through these resistance levels, it could pave the way for further gains. Conversely, a failure to maintain upward momentum may lead to a consolidation phase or a slight pullback.
Market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with institutional interest continuing to grow. However, investors should remain vigilant, as the cryptocurrency market is known for its volatility and susceptibility to sudden shifts in sentiment.
In summary, ETH is poised for potential gains over the next week, but market participants should stay informed and prepared for any unforeseen developments that could impact price movements.
ETH/USD: Will ETH Crash Back to $3,800?Ethereum has demonstrated a strong bullish trend in August, with prices approaching key resistance levels. Analysts suggest that a sustained break above $4,800 could propel ETH toward $5,500–$6,000 by the end of the month.
Institutional interest remains robust, with significant inflows into Ethereum-based ETFs and increased holdings by digital asset treasury firms like Bitmine Immersion Technologies and Sharplink Gaming.
* Resistance Levels: $4,800, $5,000, $5,500
* Support Levels: $4,000, $3,800
* Key Indicators: Strong Relative Strength Index (RSI) and bullish Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) suggest continued upward momentum.
Ethereum is poised for a potential breakout. A decisive move above $4,800, supported by strong trading volumes, could initiate a rally toward $5,500–$6,000. Conversely, a drop below $4,000 might lead to a retest of the $3,800 support zone.
ETHUSD retreat due to the take-profit pressure, uptrend remainEther recently approached its all-time high from 2021, leading to a period of take-profit pressure. The price is currently retracing towards its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA 20). Trading above the EMAs signifies that the bullish momentum remains strong. Should the price breach below the EMA 20, it could retest the 4059 resistance level. Conversely, if the price holds above the EMA 20, ETHUSD could rebound to test the recent swing high at 4800.
Fundamentally, the cryptocurrency market is now supported by regulation, including the GENIUS Act. Additionally, the new ruling by the US government allowing 401(k) accounts to invest in Crypto provides further support. Meanwhile, HODL waves indicate that more Long-Term Holders (LTHs) are accumulating Ether with a bullish outlook. The long-term perspective for the ether is positive.
By Van Ha Trinh - Financial Market Strategist at Exness
ETH/USDT :Wave 5 Drop to 4300–Rebound Rally to 4600 Before Crashthereum has likely completed a 5-wave impulsive rally from 1380 → 4780, with the channel break confirming a larger correction in progress.
Currently, price is unfolding Wave A of an ABC NeoWave structure, subdividing into 5 smaller waves.
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🔹 Wave Count Breakdown
• Wave 1: Sharp drop to ~4335
• Wave 2: 61.8% rebound to 4463
• Wave 3: Extended selloff (161.8% of W1) → 4335
• Wave 4: Shallow retrace (~38.2% W3) → 4463
• Wave 5 (in progress): Targeting 4300–4270 (1.618 Fib + channel floor)
👉 Monowave count (~45–55) sits perfectly inside NeoWave’s 34–89 range → confirming impulsive character of this Wave A.
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🔹 Next Path Scenarios
1. Wave A completion → Short-term bottom around 4300 (confluence of Fib + channel).
2. Wave B rebound → Relief rally toward 4460–4600 (38.2–50% retrace of A). Likely a sharp ABC bounce that traps late shorts.
3. Wave C decline → Resumption of downtrend toward 3800–4000, with risk of an extended drop to 3500 if momentum accelerates.
⸻
🔹 Technical Clues
• Fib structure: Textbook alternation (W2 deep / W4 shallow).
• RSI divergence at lows → exhaustion signals.
• Dominance context: USDT.D rebounding + BTC.D >60% → capital rotation suggests ETH downside risk remains elevated.
⸻
🔹 Trade Setup (Bias: Short with rebound play)
• Entry (short): Below 4400 on BOS confirmation (break of 4335).
• Targets: TP1 = 4300 (end of A), TP2 = 3800 (post-B wave).
• Rebound long: Consider 4300 → 4600 scalp if Wave A completes.
• Stops: Above 4463 (W4 high) for shorts / below 4300 for longs.
• Risk mgmt: 1–2% position size; trail stops along channel midline.
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⚠️ Volatility remains extreme. Manage risk strictly—crypto psychology flips fast.
Investing vs. Speculating in Crypto: Stop Mixing the TwoThe crypto market is in a correction, and every time this happens, I see the same pattern repeat: traders and investors talking about the moon — expecting 10x or 100x — but the moment their coin drops by 10%, they panic. They ask “What’s wrong?” or panic that the project is failing.
This is a misunderstanding of what it means to invest versus what it means to speculate. Let’s clear that up.
🚀 The Investor’s Perspective
If you believe Bitcoin is going to 500,000 USD, do you really care if it dips under 100k before reversing?
If you bought Solana with the vision of 1,000 USD, why should a retest of 150 USD make you nervous?
Investors understand:
Markets never move in a straight line.
Patience is essential — big returns require time.
Short-term corrections don’t change a solid long-term thesis.
If you’re aiming for 5x or 10x, you must accept that it takes months or years, not days.
⚡ The Speculator’s Perspective
Speculators play a different game:
They focus on short-term setups.
They use technical analysis and momentum.
They might even short-sell when the conditions align.
Both are fine — but the problem begins when people think they’re “investors” while acting like speculators every time the market moves against them.
🎯 Targets, Plans, and Patience
Here’s what most forget:
The market isn’t a straight line up designed for your convenience or for your dream Lambo
You need to set a clear target and be patient.
Want 5x on BTC? Or 10x on a strong altcoin? Then you’ll have to wait for it.
If you expect daily gains and can’t handle normal corrections, you’re not investing — you’re speculating without realizing it.
🤡 The Quick 10x Illusion
Yes, you can chase 10x in a day or two with meme coins on DEXes. Sometimes it works, most times it ends with rugs or sudden collapses. That’s not investing. That’s just gambling, and you can’t complain when it goes wrong.
✅ Final Thoughts
Decide who you are:
As an investor, set your targets, trust your thesis, and don’t panic on corrections.
As a speculator, play the short-term moves but accept the inherent risks and use discipline.
Crypto can deliver very big returns — but only if you stop mixing long-term conviction with short-term panic.
Patience and discipline will always beat hype. 🚀
P.S.
Let’s take a concrete example: since April, ETH tripled in value in a nearly straight line. What do you expect — for it to keep rising like that to 25k by the end of the year?
Do you look at your portfolio daily expecting more money every single day?
Think also of those who bought ETH with 10 million dollars, not just 3 ETH for 5k.
Maybe they want to mark profits.
Maybe they need a new yacht:)
Their selling affects the market too — and corrections are part of the bull runs.
ETHUSD-Just Another Correction Within Uptrend?On Ethereum, we’re seeing a retracement from the 4800 area, but we think this still can be a corrective move within the ongoing uptrend. The updated wave structure suggests this could be wave four of an incomplete bullish impulse that started from the June lows, so be aware of another push higher—ideally toward the 5000 area once the retracement completes. We see price now at strong support at 4160 - 4000 region, near the black trendline and former swing highs from December 2024, where stabilization may occur. So it appears that Ethereum has more upside ahead, especially with the October 2021 highs still intact; and before calling the end of this bull run with a larger fifth wave, we’d first need to see a breakout beyond that level, after which sharp extensions toward higher targets would be possible.
ETH possible pullback to 4200's 2nd channel break in 24 hours - Sitting on the larger blue channel bottom now, which needs to hold to stay in this fib zone IMO. Looks like one more test at 4437 fib soon - which needs to break & hold for a bull shift, but I always expect these channel breaks to happen in 3's. A recovery over that orange channel can invalidate the bearish formation. ETH is grabbing liquidity while building support zones above 4k IMO, and 4k seemed like a big win a few days ago. I am prepared for further breakdown, or a bounce. Time will tell.
ETH/USD – 15M | Breaker Block in FocusETH is holding mid-structure while liquidity is resting both above and below. Price is approaching a critical breaker block zone.
📈 Bullish Scenario
Hold above 4,180 swing low
Push toward 4,240 swing high
Break into 4,300–4,335 breaker block / P1D High 🚀
📉 Bearish Scenario
Rejection before breaker block
Drop back into 4,140 equal lows
Further draw into 4,080 FVG / P1D Low 📊
Key Levels
Breaker Block: 4,300–4,335
P1D High: 4,361
Swing High: 4,240
Swing Low: 4,180
Equal Lows: 4,140
FVG / P1D Low: 4,080
💬 Will ETH clear the breaker block for continuation, or reject into lower liquidity?
Ether Soars in Massive Rally — Is Altcoin Season Finally Here?Bitcoin who? Move over, orange coin. It's the alt season and Ethereum and its crew of alternatives are here to party.
🚀 Ether Edges Toward All-Time High
Ethereum BITSTAMP:ETHUSD is all the game in crypto town right now. Prices climbed another 3% early Thursday, cruising past $4,750 and now just some $100 away from the 2021 record high. The last time Ether was here, NFTs were still making headlines for selling pixelated rocks.
But this one is different (yes, it really is different this time) — it’s institutional validation driving the breakneck rally.
The spark? A mix of deep-pocketed corporate treasury moves, a flood of ETF inflows, and a billionaire with a knack for backing winning tech plays. Everyone, give it up for Ether Peter — PayPal NASDAQ:PYPL and Palantir NASDAQ:PLTR co-founder Peter Thiel, out there betting on Ethereum treasury firms.
🦖 ETHZilla: From Biotech to Blockchain
The biggest headline driver this week is ETHZilla — also known as 180 Life Sciences NASDAQ:ATNF . In a plot twist worthy of a streaming docuseries, the California-based biotech firm drops the lab coats and rebrands into an Ethereum treasury powerhouse.
Earlier this week, ETHZilla announced it had scooped up 82,186 ETH at an average price of $3,806.71, now valued at about $349 million. The stock tripled on Tuesday, sending its market cap to $1.6 billion.
The company funded its transformation with $156 million from convertible notes and $425 million via a private placement involving more than 60 institutional and crypto-native investors.
Oh, and they got Peter Thiel’s stamp of approval — his Founders Fund disclosed a 7.5% stake in ETHZilla just as the Ether shopping happened.
🏦 BitMine and the $24.5B Goal
If ETHZilla is the new kid on the block, BitMine AMEX:BMNR is the neighborhood whale. This Ethereum treasury giant holds $5 billion in tokens and just filed paperwork with the SEC to potentially raise another $24.5 billion.
The ambition? Accumulate 5% of Ethereum’s total supply — about 6 million Ether coins, worth roughly $26.5 billion at today’s prices. For context, that’s like buying a decent slice of the entire network and then staking it for dessert.
Peter Thiel’s involvement here isn’t small either — Founders Fund disclosed a 9.1% stake in BitMine. Clearly, he’s betting big on Ethereum’s next chapter.
📈 ETFs Overflowing
The timing couldn’t be better. US spot Ethereum ETFs are in on it, breaking records, with over $1 billion in daily inflows for the first time this Monday. Since April 9 — some call it Liberation Day, but for some it's Liquidation Day — Ether BITSTAMP:ETHUSD has rocketed up 240%, while Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD has pulled together a comparatively modest 60% gain.
The message from the market is loud and clear: altcoin season is back on the menu.
💼 Corporates Join the ETH Treasury Club
Public companies are now mimicking the MicroStrategy NASDAQ:MSTR Bitcoin playbook — except this time, the ticker is BITSTAMP:ETHUSD .
Fundamental Global, a small-cap reinsurer, surprised the market by filing an S-3 registration to raise up to $5 billion for Ethereum purchases.
Traders and investors didn’t love the dilution risk — the stock cratered 48% after the announcement — but management insists this is a long-term accumulation strategy.
They’ve already closed a $200 million private placement to get started, aiming for a 10% stake in the Ethereum network (yes, seriously) through staking, restaking, and other DeFi strategies. CEO Kyle Cerminara says this move “positions ETH as a core corporate asset.”
🐋 Whales Making Waves
Fundamental Global isn’t alone. In July, SharpLink Gaming NASDAQ:SBET added 77,210 ETH — a $295 million buy — and this week followed up with another $400-million purchase, bringing total holdings to nearly 600,000 ETH worth over $2.6 billion.
GameSquare NASDAQ:GAME also jumped in, announcing in July that it would build an ETH treasury rather than a Bitcoin one. The company raised $8 million to kickstart a $100 million phased buying plan.
🌊 Altcoins Catch the Updraft
It’s not just Ethereum feeling the love. Altcoins are getting swept along for the ride:
Solana COINBASE:SOLUSD cracked $200, up 25% over the past week.
XRP BITSTAMP:XRPUSD gained 12% in the same stretch.
Dogecoin COINBASE:DOGEUSD — because of course — surged 24%.
Chainlink COINBASE:LINKUSD stood out as a top performer, rising over 45% last week. Its boost comes after launching the Chainlink Reserve, now holding $1.5 million worth of LINK tokens.
When the big alt moves, the smaller ones often follow. Traders call it correlation. Cynics call it FOMO.
🔍 The Bigger Picture
Ethereum’s market cap now sits at around $570 billion. The combination of corporate treasuries, ETF flows, and growing DeFi infrastructure is creating a bullish cocktail not seen since the last altcoin cycle.
But let’s not forget the fine print: Ether’s price is heavily momentum-driven right now. The $4,700 level is a psychological barrier, and a retest of the $4,500 range could still happen before a breakout to new highs.
For long-term holders, the story isn’t just about charts, but also about Ethereum’s growing role as a corporate and institutional asset, something Bitcoin pioneered but Ether may now be refining.
Off to you : Now that altseason’s kicked off, how’s your portfolio looking? Are you holding any small-cap moonshots? Or you’re on team Ether? Share your strategy in the comments!
**ETH/USD – 15M | Key Liquidity Zones in Play**
Price is consolidating around mid-structure with both upside and downside liquidity levels in focus. The reaction from here will define the next leg.
📈 **Bullish Scenario**
* Hold above **4,265 strong low**
* Push toward **4,302 swing high → 4,335 equal highs**
* Further continuation toward **4,361 P1D High**
📉 **Bearish Scenario**
* Break below **4,265**
* Drop into **4,230 breaker block**
* Deeper liquidity sweep toward **4,120 rejection block → 4,060 P1D Low**
**Key Levels**
* Swing High: 4,302
* Equal Highs: 4,335
* P1D High: 4,361
* Strong Low: 4,265
* Breaker Block: 4,230
* Rejection Block: 4,120
* P1D Low: 4,060
💬 Will ETH sweep into the highs first, or break lower into deeper liquidity zones?
ETH: 'Rayn' Channel Development: A method behind the madnessI understand that my approach is unique, and fairly busy at first glance. Each micro grid / channel is created by pre-existing macro channels responding to price movement and patterns. When I get triggers on a new channel forming, I am able to see exactly where the new micro will target based on previous patterns ratios. These channels inevitably target support & resistance zones, fibs, gaps and other reliable structures, but it happens in advance using geometric theoretical forecasting. I will work to make things cleaner and more user friendly on future ideas, but the previous work is important in order to predict & prove future grids. Patterns play a huge roll in verification. I am trying to offer a glance into a process which is proprietary to my style. I only do this to help others and am happy to answer questions.