EUR/CAD CREATES 240 WEEKS HIGH AFTER MARCH RATE CUTSeveral factors have influenced EUR/CAD in recent times. Despite last week’s rate cut, the pair continued to rally, driven by market sentiment and optimism about a potential shift in monetary policy. From Eurozone inflation, currently at 2.4%, which slightly eased from January’s 2.5%, which contributed to the ECB’s decision to cut rates in March 6th by 25bps, to escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and Canada, with the U.S. announcing plans to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50% in response to Ontario’s electricity surcharge each development has played a role in shaping price action.
Since June, the ECB has lowered rate for six times but offered no clear guidance on future policy during it last policy meeting, thereby leaving markets uncertain amid a period of heightened volatility, further exacerbated by the Trump administration’s challenge to established international cooperation.
Earlier today, the ECB president Christian Lagarde said "Our expectations have indeed been swept aside in the last few years, and in the last few weeks in particular, "She also said. "We have seen political decisions that would have been unthinkable only a few months ago." Therefore, "We can be clear about our reaction function, and notably how we are likely to be affected by changing circumstances and what kind of data we will look at,"
UPCOMING CATALYST
The Bank of Canada’s rate cut decision is set to be released today, March 12, at 5:45 PM GMT+4 (Dubai time), with the market already pricing in a 25bps cut.
Looking ahead, Canada’s inflation data is scheduled for release next Tuesday, March 18, followed by retail sales data on Friday the 14th. These key economic indicators have the potential to drive significant market volatility, making it crucial for traders and investors to stay alert for potential price movements.
TECHNICAL VIEW
The EUR/CAD maintained its bullish momentum, reaching a 240-week high of 1.5857 on March 11, 2025. However, the pair rebounded after encountering strong resistance at the psychological 1.5900 level. This pause suggests investors are taking profits while awaiting the Bank of Canada (BoC) rate decision later today and assessing the market impact of the newly imposed 50% U.S. tariffs on Canadian imports.
As the price retreats, the 1.5581 level emerges as a minor support to watch, aligning with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. On the overall, the pair remains bullish, extending its gains from the previous week. If buying momentum persists, the price may attempt another push toward the 1.5900 resistance and a break above could potentially target 1.6000 in the coming weeks. However, if sellers gain control following the BoC rate decision, the decline could extend towards key Fibonacci levels: 1.5581 (23.6%), 1.5410 (38.2%), 1.5271 (50.0%), and 1.5133 (61.8%), with the latter being a particularly strong support zone which was broken on the 3rd of March.
The RSI momentum has also remained above the 70 overbought level since late February, signaling a possible market correction as per technical analyst.
