
Coinbase Global, Inc. Class A
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Coinbase operates as the leading U.S. cryptocurrency exchange platform, providing trading, custody, staking, and infrastructure services. Key real metrics:
2024 full-year revenue: $6.29 billion USD (115% increase from prior year).
P/E Ratio (TTM): 20.51.
Employees: 3,772.
Assets under custody/platform: Significant institutional role (custodian for majority of Bitcoin/Ethereum ETFs).
Valuation assessments: Trading at premium to some intrinsic models (one DCF-based estimate values at $187 USD, indicating overvalued by ~22% at current price).
Company health tied to crypto trading volumes and stablecoin revenue (e.g., USDC partnership). Diversification into subscriptions/services growing, but core revenue remains cyclical with crypto markets.
Catalyst & News-Driven Analysis: Events That Could Move the Price
Recent real events/developments:
Expansions into prediction markets (acquisition of The Clearing Company, partnership with Kalshi for event contracts).
Launch of stock trading and tokenized assets on platform.
Partnerships (e.g., Chainlink for cross-chain interoperability).
Reincorporation to Texas (completed December 2025, administrative change).
Late 2025 leverage reduction and liquidation events in derivatives markets acted as reset.
Potential movers: Stablecoin revenue growth, regulatory clarity progress, new product rollouts (e.g., onchain services), or Bitcoin price shifts (COIN highly correlated).
Market Sentiment & Macro: Overall Environment
Crypto Market: Late 2025 correction after October highs; Bitcoin down ~30% from $126,000 peak. Leverage reset occurred, with thinner liquidity amplifying moves.
Macro Environment: Risk-off sentiment; higher real yields, dollar strength, and interest rate dynamics pressured risk assets. Institutional inflows into ETFs slowed/outflowed in November.
Fear & Greed Index: 24 (Extreme Fear) as of latest readings.
Retail Traders Sentiment: Capitulation evident; outflows from exchanges/ETFs, driven by short-term volatility and drawdown.
Institutional Traders Sentiment: Resilient accumulation by large holders; focus on long-term adoption (e.g., custody, infrastructure). Ownership ~45% (major holders: Vanguard, BlackRock).
Analyst Views
Consensus Rating: Buy (from 27–29 analysts).
Average Price Target: $378–$384 USD (potential upside ~60% from current $236 USD).
Overall Score
Bearish (short trend). Current extreme fear, recent price pullback, and macro pressures dominate near-term mood, despite positive long-term catalysts and analyst targets.