EURUSD - Bullish outlook heading into next week!Introduction
The EURUSD experienced a strong surge last Friday, largely driven by Jerome Powell’s speech, which added significant momentum to the market. This impulsive move to the upside successfully filled both the bearish 4-hour and 1-hour Fair Value Gaps (FVGs). The candle that formed was notably strong and bullish, and because of its size and strength, it is highly probable that we will see at least a 50% retracement of this candle before price continues to push higher. Such a retracement would allow the market to gather liquidity and prepare for another bullish leg.
Liquidity Sweep
Before this sharp rally, the EURUSD executed a liquidity sweep at the recent lows, clearing out stop losses and inducing sellers into the market. This is a classic move often seen before a strong reversal to the upside. Following this sweep, price accelerated with an aggressive bullish candle. My expectation now is for the market to retrace into this candle, ideally retracing deeply enough to provide a high-probability entry for continuation to the upside. This liquidity sweep sets the stage for a bullish scenario, as it suggests that smart money has already accumulated positions at discounted levels.
Resistance
As price surged higher, it tapped into a key area of resistance, which aligns with both the 1-hour and 4-hour FVGs. This confluence of timeframes strengthens the validity of the resistance zone and explains why price has reacted from this level. I anticipate that breaking through this resistance will require additional momentum, which may not occur immediately. Instead, we could see a short-term pullback or cooldown that allows the market to gather strength before attempting to push through this supply zone. This resistance area will therefore act as a decisive battleground for buyers and sellers.
Bullish Support
The strong bullish candle formed during the rally now serves as a new area of support. I expect price to respect the 50% retracement level of this candle, which lies around 1.166. This midpoint often acts as a significant level in technical analysis, and holding above it would confirm bullish continuation. As long as price remains above this zone, the momentum remains to the upside, and the probability of another move higher increases. This makes the retracement into this level a potential buying opportunity.
Inversion
Another important factor to consider is the inversion of the 4-hour FVG. On the previous drop, the EURUSD created a bearish 4-hour FVG, which initially acted as resistance. However, with the latest bullish impulse, this same zone has now flipped into an inversion FVG, transforming from a bearish area into a bullish support. This inversion highlights a significant shift in market structure and suggests that bulls are taking control of the price action. This level will be crucial to watch, as holding above it strengthens the case for further upside.
Final Thoughts
In summary, the EURUSD is showing strong bullish potential following the liquidity sweep and the aggressive rally sparked by Powell’s speech. While the market has reached a significant resistance area marked by the 1-hour and 4-hour FVGs, a retracement into the 50% level of the bullish candle would be healthy and provide a potential entry point for buyers. With the inversion of the previous bearish FVG into bullish support, the technical picture favors the upside as long as key support levels are respected. The coming sessions will reveal whether the market has the strength to break through resistance and continue its upward trajectory.
