Market Review ( DXY & GOLD & EQUITIES & CURRENCIES ) 2025-06-17DXY:
Prediction: Continued bearish pressure, targeting your swing target of 95.00. The fundamental backdrop of potential Fed rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty weighing on safe-haven demand for the dollar supports this outlook.
Recommendation: SELL on rallies. Traders should look for opportunities to short the DXY, utilizing resistance levels around 98.50-99.00 for entry. Long-term investors should consider reducing USD exposure in their portfolios.
GOLD:
Prediction: Strong bullish momentum to continue, with a high probability of reaching and exceeding your swing target of 3600. The confluence of safe-haven demand and a weakening dollar provides a powerful tailwind.
Recommendation: BUY on dips. Swing traders can look for pullbacks to key support levels for entry, while long-term investors should consider accumulating gold as a hedge against market volatility and currency depreciation.
EURUSD trade ideas
EURUSD awaits upcoming newsYesterday, EURUSD climbed back above 1,1600, testing the previous high.
Tomorrow, the market is anticipating the FED’s interest rate decision.
For now, the trend remains clear, with expectations of increased volatility.
Keep an eye out for a higher low and a breakout above the previous high.
EURUSD H1 I Bearish Reversal Based on the H1 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 1.1570, which is a pullback resistance aligning with a 38.2% Fib retracement.
Our take profit will be at 1.1528, an overlap support level.
The stop loss will be placed at 1.1609, a multi-swing high resistance.
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EURUSD Long Setup – Bullish Rejection from Demand ZoneEURUSD remains supported by strong eurozone fundamentals and broad USD softness. The pair has retraced into a key demand zone around 1.1490 and is showing signs of bullish rejection. With the Fed likely to pause further rate hikes and the ECB maintaining a steady tone, the bias favors further upside toward recent highs.
⚠️ Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East (Israel-Iran conflict) have introduced mild safe haven demand, but so far the USD has underperformed versus the euro, suggesting EUR remains relatively insulated.
Watch for confirmation and entries within the blue demand box.
🔍 Technical Analysis:
Structure: Clear uptrend with higher highs and higher lows. Price retraced to a well-defined 1H demand zone between 1.1490–1.1500.
Setup: Anticipating a bounce from the demand zone targeting the recent high near 1.1620–1.1630.
Entry Zone: 1.1490–1.1500 (bullish reaction area)
Target: 1.1620–1.1630 (previous supply zone)
Stop Loss: Below 1.1439 (recent swing low)
Risk-Reward Ratio: Approximately 1:2.5
🧠 Fundamental Context (as of June 16):
EUR Bias: Bullish – ECB has paused cuts; euro is resilient despite geopolitical headwinds.
USD Bias: Bearish – Fed is on pause; soft inflation data and geopolitical risks weigh on dollar strength.
Key Drivers:
Fed dovish tone (FOMC pause, lower CPI)
Strong EU resilience despite global tensions
CHF and JPY attracting safe haven flows over USD
📅 Key Events to Watch:
US Core PCE (next major inflation readout)
FOMC commentary and Fed speakers
Eurozone CPI and sentiment data
Path Toward 1.20 Still in Play but there's a catch....The pair has recently completed a major technical breakout by moving above a long standing trendline that dates back to the 2008 high. For more than 15 yearsthis trendline acted as strong resistance, repeatedly rejecting bullish attempts. The latest move did not just break through this resistance. It returned to retest the level around the 1.1450 to 1.1500 area and held with near perfect precision. This successful retest signaled a structural shift, turning former resistance into solid support. Since then, the pair has remained within a steep upward channel, forming higher lows and maintaining strong upside momentum. This momentum appears to be backed by real macro flows rather than just short-term speculation.
The euro’s recent strength is not being driven by strong economic performance in the Eurozone. Instead, it reflects a broader shift in global capital allocation and diverging monetary policy expectations. The Federal Reserve began easing policy in late 2024 with a series of rate cuts aimed at responding to softening inflation and slowing labor market conditions. By early 2025, the Fed had completed a handful of cuts before entering a pause. That pause remains in effect for now but markets are increasingly expecting the Fed to resume cutting later this year, with 2 to 3 additional cuts projected for the second half of 2025. These expectations have weakened the dollar as traders anticipate a return to more accommodative policy. (This is known as pricing in or speculative markets)
On the European side, the European Central Bank began cutting rates in late 2024 (Duh we all know this by now) and is now widely seen as operating in neutral territory. The ECB has taken a careful and measured approach to easing, avoiding any aggressive dovish turn and instead emphasizing a data dependent path. With limited room to cut further and no urgent economic pressure to do so, the euro has maintained a relative yield advantage compared to the dollar, even in a context of muted growth.
Another important driver of euro strength has been the rotation of capital into U.S. equities, particularly in the technology and large cap sectors. As investors allocate more capital into risk assets, the dollar tends to weaken in FX terms, as funding shifts out of USD and into growth exposures (aka emerging markets) This type of flow indirectly benefits the euro. At the same time the dollar is no longer acting as a dominant safe haven for now. Despite the presence of global uncertainty, low market volatility and return focused positioning have reduced the appeal of defensive USD flows. This has allowed the euro to benefit from repositioning, not because of its own economic strength, but because the dollar is no longer absorbing global liquidity the way it once did.
From a technical standpoint, the breakout above the 2008 trendline marks a significant structural change. As long as the 1.1500 area holds as support, the trend remains intact. The next major upside target is around 1.20, which aligns with the top of the rising price channel and represents a likely area for medium term profit taking by larger market participants.
However , risks to the upside scenario remain. Because this rally is being driven by capital flows and positioning rather than Eurozone fundamentals, it is highly sensitive to shifts in sentiment and data. A stronger than expected U.S economic report, such as an upside surprise in CPI, employment or consumer spending, could quickly change the market’s view on the Fed’s rate path and trigger a resurgence in dollar strength. Similarly, any signal from the ECB that suggests renewed dovishness or further deterioration in European economic data, could weigh heavily on the euro. In addition, if a geopolitical shock or a sharp decline in risk appetite occurs, safe haven flows could return to the dollar and result in a fast reversal in EUR/USD. We saw a warning of this past weekend with Israel and Iran attacking each other.
all in all, the euro has made a technically sound and macro supported breakout, driven by diverging rate cycles, capital rotation and the evolving role of the U.S dollar in global flows. The move toward 1.20 remains a valid target as long as 1.1500 holds as support. But this is not a fundamentally bullish euro story. It is a positioning driven move based on relative rate expectations and macro sentiment. If those expectations shift, the rally could unwind quickly. Active risk management remains essential. I hope this helps you all, Cheers!
Chart
White dashed line - 2008 Resistance
Red and Blue Ascending channel (Bullish on Daily)
Red is 1.19-1.20 AOI TP
EURUSD RISE I believe EURUSD could possibly even rise to 1.18000 . Rejecting sell side pressure no 4hr closure to the downside and break out of liquidity trends . If I continue to see big rejection candles and lack of closure with posturing to the upside I will enter for this long position and scale in positions .
Bearish drop?The Fiber (EUR/USD) has rejected off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 1.1611
1st Support: 1.1495
1st Resistance: 1.1649
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Bullish bounce?EUR/USD is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.1546
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.1497
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
Take profit: 1.1611
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance.
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Euro Testing Significant Resistance Level! Hey Traders so today was watching Euro it is in strong uptrend confirmed with my favorite 3 bar trendline. So normally best way to trade the trend is buy when it pulls back to the trendline. I like to use a candle that might hold support around 1.1457 but we also have strong high at 1.576
So aggressive entry would be to buy at that pullback 1.1457-1.1475 wide stop loss below support.
Conservative would be wait for break above that 1.576 high proving market wants to move higher then wait for it to come back and test that level again on pullback and buy at 1.576
If your bearish I don't think it's good to short right now with uptrend showing signs of strength. I would wait until market trades below trendline before considering taking bearish position.
Always use Risk Management!
(Just in case your wrong in your analysis most experts recommend never to risk more than 2% of your account equity on any given trade.)
Hope This Helps Your Trading 😃
Clifford
EUR/USD - continue with the UptrendOn EUR/USD , it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price of 1.14390.
There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again.
Uptrend and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade.
Happy trading
Dale
EURUSD - Bullish Continuation ConfluencesStory : Market is making series of HH and HL with a trendline support respect. Market has respected Fib level of 50% on HL at 1.14747 level. Currently there is no divergence therefore we are ignoring any reversal or Harmonic pattern. however, Bullish Flag pattern can be seen on the chart. Also the Seasonal of this pair is Bullish in the month of June based on last 15 years data
Anticipate : I anticipate that market will keep moving in bullish trend.
Plan : We plan our entry on the break of neckline which is 1.16272 and with our R:R of 1:1 & 1:2 plan our TPs accordingly at 1.17935 and 1.19252 as marked in the chart.
Pull the trigger Guyz and grab your profit.
DO like, share and comment if you liked tha analysis.
EURUSD Last push before correction.The EURUSD pair made a new High by breaking above the 1.15725 Resistance and is extending the rally since the January 13 2025 Low. That Low was the Higher Low of the multi-year Channel Up, so the current uptrend is technically its latest Bullish Leg.
The first Bullish Leg of that pattern peaked after a +15.75% rise. We expect a similar peak for the current rally, thus targeting 1.17750, before a new pull-back below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
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