EUR/USD Outlook – Potential Short SetupsHi everyone,
In today’s post, let’s break down the current market structure and potential opportunities in the EUR/USD pair.
🔍 Market Context
After nearly a month of consolidation, EUR/USD appears to have stalled around the previous weekly swing highs . Despite several attempts to hold above this level, the price eventually broke down, signalling a shift in structure on the 4-hour (4H) timeframe.
This short-term breakdown could be an early sign of a larger structural shift on the daily chart , and it’s something I’m keeping a close eye on.
🧭 Key Levels & Price Behaviour
At the moment, price action is bouncing from a demand zone , which might provide a short-lived relief rally . However, this bounce may only be temporary.
In my humble opinion, bullish momentum is fading , and we could be entering a trap zone for late buyers . I’m watching the 1.132–1.138 region , just above the short-term downtrend line, as a potential resistance zone and an ideal area to consider shorts.
🎯 Trade Ideas
I’ve marked two trade setups on the chart, catering to different risk profiles:
1. Aggressive Trade – For traders willing to enter closer to resistance with tighter stop losses.
2. Conservative Trade – For those who prefer more confirmation before entry.
You can treat these setups independently or combine them into a single strategy depending on your trading style and risk tolerance.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This post is purely for educational purposes . I am not a financial advisor , and nothing here should be taken as financial advice. Always consult your financial advisor before making any investment or trading decisions.
EURUSD trade ideas
EURUSD 4H TIME-FRAME ANALYSIS Left Circled Area (Around Late April 2025):
Initial Bullish Push:We see a strong upward movement leading into this area, indicating significant buying pressure.
Rejection and Consolidation:The price reaches a high and then faces strong resistance, leading to a sharp rejection. Following this rejection, the price enters a period of consolidation, moving sideways within a defined range (roughly between 1.13700 and 1.14200). This suggests a temporary balance between buyers and sellers after the initial strong move.
Break of Consolidation:Eventually, the price breaks downwards out of this consolidation range with some bearish momentum. This break signifies that sellers have gained control, and the prior bullish momentum has likely subsided for the short term. The break below the lower boundary of the consolidation acts as a break of structure, indicating a potential shift towards a downtrend or further bearish movement.
Potential Resistance:The upper boundary of the consolidation range (around 1.14200) now has the potential to act as resistance if the price attempts to move back up.
Right Circled Area (Around Mid-May 2025):
Bearish Movement:Following the breakdown from the previous consolidation, the price has been generally moving downwards, indicating continued selling pressure.
Potential Support and Rejection:The price reaches a low and appears to find some support around the 1.11600 level. We see some upward movement and indecision around this area, suggesting buyers are attempting to push back.
Failed Bullish Momentum:The upward movement from the support level is relatively weak and doesn't manage to break above the previous significant swing low (around 1.12050). This suggests that the bearish momentum is still strong, and buyers are not yet in control.
Potential Continuation:The inability of the price to make a significant recovery after finding support could indicate a continuation of the downtrend. The area of indecision near the 1.12050 level might act as a resistancezone for any further attempts to move higher.
Overall Interpretation:
Looking at these two circled areas together, the chart suggests a shift from initial bullish momentum to bearish control. The first circled area shows a failure to maintain the uptrend, leading to a consolidation and subsequent breakdown. The second circled area indicates continued bearish pressure with weak attempts at recovery being rejected at potential resistance levels.
This analysis suggests a potential short-term bearish outlook for EUR/USD based on this 4-hour timeframe. Traders might look for further selling opportunities as long as the price remains below the resistance levels identified.
EUR/USD – Fair Value Gap Filled, Market Eyes Higher HighsThe EUR/USD chart on the 4-hour timeframe is showing a well-formed Elliott Wave pattern. We've seen a clear 5-wave move to the upside, followed by a corrective ABC pattern. This correction seems to have completed, with wave C ending right at a strong support area.
It's the lower trendline of the rising channel formed during the 5-wave impulse.
It's also where a Fair Value Gap (FVG) has just been filled — an area where price previously moved too quickly and is now finding balance.
T1: 1.12355
T2: 1.13072
SL: 1.10468
Could the Fiber bounce from here?The price is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 1.1137
1st Support: 1.1077
1st Resistance: 1.1241
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EUR/USD Shorts to LongsMy outlook for EU mirrors GU: we may see a sell‑off develop. There’s a nearby 1‑hour supply zone I’m watching, but upside liquidity could invalidate it.
A clean demand zone also awaits mitigation; once touched, it could fuel the next bullish leg. I’ll wait to see which direction price chooses first to determine which POI is hit.
Confluences for EU sells are as follows:
A clean 1‑hour supply that triggered a minor change of character to the downside.
Asian session low and other liquidity pools sit below, inviting a sweep.
Price has been in a multi‑week bearish trend.
DXY structure aligns with this bearish scenario.
P.S. If price pierces the supply, sweeps the upside liquidity, and breaks structure higher, I’ll look for the new demand zone that forms and reassess for potential longs.
EURUSD: Bearish Continuation After Breakout 🇪🇺🇺🇸
EURUSD broke and closed below a significant horizontal support this week.
After a retest of a broken structure, the price formed a descending triangle pattern
on a 4h time frame.
Its neckline violation is a strong bearish confirmation signal.
The price is going to continue falling next week.
Next support - 1.11
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"This ain’t your average pullback… it’s a trap in disguise!"Price is reacting perfectly within our mapped supply-demand zones. After a liquidity sweep, we're expecting a short-term bullish move into the minor supply before a potential strong bearish continuation toward the green demand zone.
Key idea: Wait for rejection from the highlighted supply for optimal short entries.
This setup aligns with smart money concepts – patience is key.
Targets:
First TP: 1.11350
Final TP: 1.11000
#EURUSD #SmartMoney #ForexAnalysis #OrderBlocks #SupplyDemand #LiquidityGrab #ForexSetup
DeGRAM | EURUSD retest of the support level📊 Technical Analysis
● Price is testing the confluence of the blue corrective channel floor, the long‑term rising‑channel base and the 1.11 support, replicating April’s launch point.
● A close above the blue channel roof (~1.127) would confirm a break and target the mid‑channel 1.134 resistance, then the supply zone / upper rail near 1.140; bias is invalidated on a sustained close below 1.11.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● US initial claims jumped to 252 k (5‑week high) while two FOMC voters signalled readiness to cut if labour softens, pressuring yields and the USD.
● ECB’s Lane said inflation is “on track” but emphasised data‑dependence beyond June, tempering easing expectations and underpinning euro rates.
✨ Summary
Channel‑base retest + weaker US data versus cautious ECB keep the short‑term long in play: objectives 1.134 → 1.140, cut if < 1.11.
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Bullish bounce?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is reacting off the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 1.1085
1st Support: 1.0946
1st Resistance: 1.1267
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EURUSD SELL 1.126On the 4-hour chart, EURUSD stabilized and rebounded after forming a head and shoulders top pattern. At present, attention can be paid to the resistance near 1.126, which is the previous neckline resistance and the rebound position of the 0.618 ratio of the falling band. If the price continues to fall, the downward target will be around 1.090
EURUSD - TOUGH but LOGICAL - SELL SHORT Hello Dear Traders, EURUDS bias is Short based on following confluences
The first thing to note is that market has respected BEARISH TRENDLINE resistance followed by rejection from MAJOR RESISTANCE LEVEL, which is also a FIB golden level of 0.382.
based on this, if market breaks the MINOR support level which is also 0.68 level of FIB then we can sell short the market with SELL STOP order and take profits on LL of the market.
Further, EXY (EUR Index) is bearish and DXY is positive so EUR/USD = net bearish which is also a strong sign of selling short.
similarly, if we look at the sentiments of the market, which although is 60 % bias towards short, its not a strong confluence but I will give weightage to the market senstiments.
Keep your stop loss above last LH / support level and enjoy trades.
EURUSD: Bearish Continuation
Our strategy, polished by years of trial and error has helped us identify what seems to be a great trading opportunity and we are here to share it with you as the time is ripe for us to sell EURUSD.
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Maintain short-term downtrend - retest 1.1120 zone🔔🔔🔔 EUR/USD news:
➡️ European Central Bank (ECB) officials have signaled the possibility of further interest rate cuts as inflationary pressures continue to ease.
➡️ The EUR/USD pair is currently experiencing some pullback, slipping below the 1.1200 level following a modest rebound in the U.S. Dollar.
➡️ Mixed U.S. Economic data revealed that producer prices in April fell short of expectations, extending the recent trend of weakening inflation.
➡️ However, the Federal Reserve appears more concerned with rising consumer inflation expectations than with providing short-term relief to the economy through abrupt rate cuts—especially in light of new tariff policies announced by U.S. President Donald Trump.
Personal opinion:
➡️ Although the economic data is not really good, the policies of the two central banks are different and this seems to be more beneficial for USDD. The pair will continue to decline in the coming time, the trend line has been broken and will wait for the support zone 1.1120
➡️ Analysis based on important resistance - support levels and Fibonacci combined with trend lines and EMA to come up with a suitable strategy
Personal Plan:
🔆Price Zone Setup:
👉Sell EUR/USD 1.1180- 1.1195
❌SL: 1.1230 | ✅TP: 1.1130
FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
EURUSD: Pullback From Resistance ConfirmedThe EUR/USD appears to be bearish on the 4-hour chart after hitting a significant daily resistance level.
The price has broken below the neckline of a descending triangle pattern and closed below it.
Suggesting a potential further decline. The next support level is at 1.108.
EURUSD: US inflation on scheduleThe most important event during the previous week was the FOMC meeting. The Fed left interest rates unchanged, as was expected. In an after-the-meeting statement, the FOMC members noted that they will stay committed to their dual mandate, bringing inflation toward targeted 2% and maximum employment. Still, considering ongoing challenges for the economy, especially those related to trade tariffs, the Fed Chair Powell noted that the Fed will be ready to act immediately if threats to the economy emerge in the future period. As for macro data published during the week, the US ISM Services PMI was standing at 51,6 in April, above market consensus of 50,6. The Balance of Trade reached $-140,5B, which represents a higher deficit from forecasted $-137B.
The Factory Orders in Germany were higher by 3,6% in March, beating market expectations at 1,3%. The HCOB Construction PMI in April in the Euro Zone reached the level of 46, while the same indicator for Germany was at the level of 45,1. The Retail Sales in the Euro Zone in March dropped by -0,1% for the month, reaching a 1,5% increase on a yearly basis. The Balance of Trade in Germany reached euro 21,1B in March, higher from forecasted euro 20,8B. The Industrial Production in Germany in March was higher by 3% for the month, significantly above market expectation of 0,5%.
As expected, the FOMC meeting caused higher volatility on financial markets. Currently, the most sensitive topics are related to further decrease of the US interest rates and potential negative impact of trade tariffs on the US economy. Since Fed Chair Powell brought some confidence to market participants that the Fed is ready to react in case of worsening economic conditions, the US Dollar gained in strength. The eurusd currency pair started the week around the level of 1,1370 and moved to the downside for the rest of the week, ending it at 1,1248. The RSI started its stronger move toward the level of 50, indicating the potential that the market will soon look at the oversold market side. The MA50 continues to strongly diverge from MA200, confirming further the cross occurred some time ago.
The US April inflation figures are scheduled for a release on Tuesday next week. Depending on figures, there is some probability of higher market volatility. The support line at 1,12 has been shortly tested during the previous week. The start of the week ahead might bring some further testing of this level. In case that this level is broken to the downside, then the next supporting level will be at 1,11, but this is not a significant level, on a historical scale of eurusd movements. There is also an equal probability that the market will shortly revert to the upside, when 1,13 might be tested for one more time.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
EUR: ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for May for the Euro Zone and Germany, Inflation Rate in Germany, final for April, Industrial Production in the EuroZone, GDP Growth Rate Q/Q, second estimate for Q1,
USD: Inflation Rate in April, Producers Price Index in April, Industrial Production in April, Building Permits preliminary for April, Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary for May
Eur usd sell side baisThe EUR/USD pair currently presents a bearish bias, driven by a combination of eurozone economic weakness and relative dollar strength. Key technical indicators suggest downward momentum, with the pair trading below key moving averages and showing lower highs on the daily chart. Macroeconomic factors such as hawkish Fed sentiment, persistent inflation in the U.S., and weaker-than-expected eurozone data support the sell-side outlook. Traders may look for short opportunities on pullbacks toward resistance levels, with close attention to upcoming ECB and Fed statements for confirmation.
EUR/USD SHORT IDEAon the daily timeframe the price continues to form lower lows and lower highs. indicating that the trend is going down, and now the price has entered the discount price area and is experiencing rejection
then on the 4H timeframe we can see in the picture, the price is accumulating and there is a fakeout upwards and continues to decline until the breakdown downwards, the price will likely continue to decline