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S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price IndexS&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price IndexS&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index

S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index

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CSUSHPINSA trade ideas

The Ancient Metric: Reflecting on Gold’s Financial Role🟡The Ancient Metric: Reflecting on Gold’s Financial Role Hard Money Lens: All asset ratios are expressed vs gold (XAUUSD) to: • Strip out fiat currency distortion • Reveal true purchasing power • Treat gold as a timeless unit of account ________________________________________ 📈 1. S&P 500 / Gold (SPX/XAUUSD) Ratio: • Now: 1.88 • Jan 2025: 2.16 • Jul 2024: 2.26 • Jul 2018: 2.30 🔍 Interpretation: • Down 18% from Jan 2025 • Down 18% over 7 years • Not a crash nominally — but a stealth bear market in gold terms ✅ Conclusion: Equities are quietly being devalued: • Inflation is eroding fiat-based returns • Excess valuations are being corrected • Gold is quietly reclaiming its monetary role ________________________________________ 🏠 2. Housing / Gold (CSUSHPINSA/XAUUSD) Ratio: • Now: 0.10 • Jan 2025: 0.12 • Jul 2024: 0.13 • Jul 2018: 0.17 🔍 Interpretation: • Down 41% in gold terms over 7 years • Down 23% just since July 2024 • Indicates either: • Gold rising faster than home prices • Real estate weakening in true (inflation-adjusted) value ✅ Conclusion: Housing is even more devalued than equities — potential deep value opportunity in hard-money terms. ________________________________________ ₿ 3. Bitcoin / Gold (BTC/XAUUSD) Ratio: • Now: 32 • Jan 2025: 37 • Jul 2024: 26 • Jul 2018: 6 🔍 Interpretation: • Bitcoin is up >5× vs gold since 2018 • Peaked in Jan 2025, now -13% • Still trading near historical highs ✅ Conclusion: Bitcoin is the top performer, but: • Showing signs of possible topping behavior • Could be transitioning into a distribution phase 🧭 The Alpha View 🟤 1. We’re in a Secular Hard Money Shift • Fiat-based assets are losing ground vs gold • Gold is reasserting its role as a monetary base layer ________________________________________ 🟠 2. Bitcoin Has Front-Run the Cycle • Outperformance = speculative phase • But stalling and could signal short term distribution ________________________________________ 🟢 3. Real Estate: A Hard-Asset Value Play • Crushed in gold terms = most undervalued major asset • If inflation slows or rates fall, housing may outperform next ________________________________________ 🔁 4. Macro Rotation is Forming • From high-risk growth (tech) → to hard-income/value (real estate, dividend stocks) • Gold remains the anchor and arbiter of value ________________________________________ 🔮 Big Picture We are witnessing a late-cycle monetary rotation: • Fiat-based valuations are being repriced • Gold is reasserting its dominance • Housing market might be undervalued • Bitcoin is still king, but risk/reward now elevated The Defining Question: Is This the Cycle Where Bitcoin is Unchained? Note: Market theorists frequently point to a 7-year cycle (7YC) as a natural rhythm in financial markets. 2018 Market Recap • Rising geopolitical tensions o U.S.-China trade war 1.0 • Tightening monetary policy o Fed Rate hiked 4X’s & initiates QT • Market volatility and equity corrections o Major Crude Price Swings • Emerging Markets Crisis o Argentina & Turkey currency collapses • The Crypto Winter o BTC drops from nearly $20k to $4k Follow on X @TheAlphaView
FRED:CSUSHPINSA
by Trajan2080
The Great Economic/ Financial Collapse: Housing (3/6)ever since 2008 we have seen home prices rise. is this good or bad? i will tell you my opinion on housing and how it could crash. right now we are seeing record home prices we have never seen. why is this? supply and demand. we have seen demand for homes reach record levels but little supply.... this causes prices to increase and price to build a home more expensive. although market is booming right now i do think this should be a warning sign. the only thing keeping the housing market alive is low interest rates and supply and demand. right now interest rates are nearly at 0% but the fed does plan on raising them in march. raising interest rates will slow down the growth of the economy which could slow down demand for homes since it will be harder for people to borrow money. i do believe home prices will continue to clime for a few more months before they end up crashing. i still see prices going up 17% before they crash. another thing we can look at is lumber. we need lumber to build homes and recently we say the price of lumber dump after a huge pump. this could be a warning since you can see lumber tops off people home prices drop. if you can see the chart you will see lumber topped off a few years before homes did which led to a housing crash. right now we have seen lumber prices top off but i dont think home prices have topped out just yet. i think once the economy slows down and other markets start crashing the housing will crash too. i dont think housing will crash just yet i think it will be one of the last markets to crash in this economic collapse. another reason why i think housing will crash is the horrible wages in America. the average american wage is 51k a year and the median is 34k. with horrible wages in america and rising home prices it makes it harder and more expensive for the average american to buy a house. buying a home with these wages can lead to large amounts of debt as you can see here: fingfx.thomsonreuters.com household debt to GDP is below previous high but the total household debt is past 2008 levels. right now housing isn't looking bearish but i do think that will change in the upcoming years if the economic collapse does happen. foreclosure and bankrupts are at a record low but i do think they will spike once other markets start coming down. fingfx.thomsonreuters.com i do think if markets crash it will cause a spike in unemployment which will lead to foreclosures and bankruptcies . also with inflation on the rise and possible increase in inflation it will drop the demand for homes. i think we are in a debt bubble as well. we have seen student debt, national debt, personal debt all reach record numbers. this will lead to market crashes since it will be harder for people to borrow money with rising interest rates. and if they can't pay off debts they will be forced to file bankruptcy which cold lead to foreclosures. if home prices do end up dropping severely that will also create more debt for home owners/sellers. if prices drop below the price they bought at they will be selling for a loss which could lead to debt.
FRED:CSUSHPINSA
by r2d22010
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