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GOLD falls sharply, fundamental analysis and technical positionOANDA:XAUUSD fell sharply below the $3,300/oz price level as Chairman Jerome Powell did not signal any rate cuts at his next press conference on September 16-17. He only said that “no decision has been made on September” and that “more data will be evaluated in the coming months.” Economic data undermined the case for a rate cut, while geopolitical play remained a potential support. The Fed and Interest Rates The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged for a fifth straight meeting on Wednesday, defying persistent pressure from President Donald Trump and White House officials. However, two members of the central bank's board dissented, a rare move in three decades that underscored growing divisions within the central bank over the impact of Trump's tariff policies. At the meeting, the Fed kept its benchmark federal funds rate in a range of 4.25% to 4.5%, in line with policy through 2025. Last fall, the Fed cut rates by a total of 100 basis points. However, Federal Reserve Board Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman opposed cutting interest rates by another 25 basis points, marking the first time since Alan Greenspan in 1993 that two board members have opposed a majority resolution at a meeting. At the press conference, Chairman Jerome Powell did not signal a rate cut at the next interest rate meeting on September 16-17, saying only that “no decision has been made about September” and that “more data will be evaluated in the coming months.” Powell also noted that despite Trump’s call for a sharp 3% rate cut to reduce interest costs on US debt and stimulate the housing market, the Fed will continue to monitor the longer-term impact of tariffs on the path of inflation and economic recovery. Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September fell to 47% in Powell's speech. Economic data ADP jobs data beats expectations and is bearish US ADP payrolls jumped 104,000 in July, beating market expectations of 75,000 and marking the biggest gain since March. The data showed continued strength in the labor market, reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s stance on keeping interest rates high. Meanwhile, the preliminary estimate of annual GDP growth in the second quarter came in at 3% (2.4% expected), and the core personal consumption expenditures price index rose 2.5% year-on-year (2.3% expected), indicating both economic resilience and inflation stability, further weakening expectations for a rate cut. Keep an eye on the ISM manufacturing PMI and non-farm payrolls data on August 1. If the jobs numbers continue to be strong, this could reinforce the Fed’s dovish stance. Geopolitical and Policy Plays News of a 90-day extension of the US-China tariff deal has eased some safe-haven demand, but Trump’s August 8 deadline for a new Russia-Ukraine deal, coupled with tensions in the Middle East, continue to provide potential support for gold. Continued purchases by central banks (such as China and India) are a positive signal in the medium to long term, but are unlikely to offset short-term pressure from the Federal Reserve’s policies. Technical outlook for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has been sold below the $3,300 level and now the $3,300 level has become the nearest resistance at present. For now, gold will be limited by the area of ​​the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement with the original price point of $3,300, along with that it has formed a short-term downtrend with the price channel, the next target will be around $3,246 in the short term followed by the Fibonacci retracement level noted with readers in previous publications. On the momentum front, the Relative Strength Index is operating below 50 and is far from the oversold zone (20-0), indicating that there is still plenty of room for downside ahead. In addition, the gold trend will also be pressured by the EMA21, as long as gold remains below the EMA21, the current technical conditions continue to favor the downside. For the day, the technical outlook for gold is bearish with notable positions listed as follows. Support: 3,246 – 3,228 USD Resistance: 3,300 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3345 - 3343⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3349 →Take Profit 1 3337 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3331 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3240 - 3242⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3236 →Take Profit 1 3248 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3254
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
3
SELL THE RALLIES ON GOLD 🟡 Gold Daily Time Frame Analysis 🔍 Market Structure Overview Gold has been consolidating in a broad range near its all-time highs, indicating a bullish exhaustion. This prolonged sideways movement is characteristic of a distribution phase, often preceding a potential trend reversal. The current price action lacks strong directional momentum, as buyers appear exhausted near record highs. The distribution pattern implies that institutions may be preparing to offload long positions and potentially build short positions for a future bearish move. --- 🟥 Red Rectangle – Resistance Zone (Potential Distribution Area) Price has repeatedly tested this zone without a successful breakout. This zone likely contains heavy sell-side liquidity and institutional supply. Key Resistance Levels within this zone: $3,400 $3,425 $3,480 This repeated failure to break higher reinforces the possibility of a trend reversal from this area. --- 🟦 Blue Rectangle – Minor Support (Liquidity Engineered Zone) Gold is reacting to this minor support zone, showing temporary buying interest. This may indicate that institutions are building liquidity, luring in buyers to drive price back toward the red zone. Once sufficient liquidity is accumulated, smart money may offload remaining long positions into resistance, and initiate a bearish trend. Key Support Levels: $3,300 – immediate minor support $3,200 $3,100 $3,000 – major psychological and technical support --- 📈 Institutional Price Behavior This price behavior aligns with Wyckoff Distribution Theory, where: Price consolidates near the top Demand weakens Institutions offload to late buyers Downtrend begins after liquidity sweep or Upthrust (UTAD) --- 🧠 Conclusion Gold’s ranging structure near ATH suggests we may be in a distribution phase. The reaction to the minor support implies a liquidity-building move to draw price back to resistance before a potential markdown phase (bearish trend) begins.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by enwemadufranklyn1989
2
XAUUSDGold (XAUUSD) has been undeniably one of the most rewarding instruments to trade this year. Whether that be longs or shorts. Well, after the latest drop let’s be clear on one thing…. There is another big one to come. There is a 4 year cycle of behaviour to not be ignored. Question, what happened this time in the Gold charts 4 years ago? If you know the answer then you need to be setting up for sells. Of course there have been many highs made this year and some are anticipating a new ATH before the drop. It is possible based on price action in 2025. If history is to repeat itself, the open of Asian Session tonight (030825) could see a continuation up of the explosion up of Friday (010825). This should result in the sweeping out of stop losses of any sells that have been held over the weekend. The closure of the sells will create buying pressure sending price further up to retest at least the most significant swing high. At and from this level and a few more above, we can look out for sustained selling to break below 3300 and beyond. It is just theory at this point but should be taken into account. Potential sell areas: 3368-3370 3378-3380 3400-3405 3412-3416 3428-3430 3433-3438 3444-3450 Of course risk management is key. But from the highest point that price reaches early next week could be the start of a very good sell. All entry zone me should have an initial 1:2RR while holding partial sells with extended TPs as far as 3233,3217,3198,3159,3099. Good luck 🤞 This is not financial advice and should be taken with a pinch of salt.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by Squeeezy-Trader
2
Gold – Party’s Over… or Just Getting Started?Yesterday was… interesting, but honestly, not that surprising. Price shot up to 3385 like it was chasing the last drink at a party. The real question now is: what happens after the party? Because today, the confetti’s still in our hair, but someone has to clean up this mess. This analysis will go deeper than usual, because we’ve got geopolitical drama on the horizon that could seriously shake up the price of gold. The Setup – Trend or Just a Power Nap? Gold is taking a breather – not the end of the trend, just a little post-party nap. The 1-hour EMAs are still pointing upwards, but there’s a slight hesitation showing. Watch the 50 EMA (the orange one) – that might be the judge and jury for gold’s fate. If price breaks below, we could see a quick visit to the 3340 zone. Trend strength? Still strong at 41. Translation: The party isn’t over yet. But on the 1-hour chart, this bullish move is starting to lose steam – trend strength is above the horizon but flattening. What’s more, our short line is sneaking up toward the horizon too… if price dips further, that line might peek above. That’s a classic “trend fatigue” signal – like a boxer taking a breather between rounds. Yesterday RSI punched through the overbought zone, then promptly got smacked down from 3385. Now it's calmly drifting lower. Currently, RSI is below the 4-hour RSI-EMA, which is a shortish sign… but hey, we never enter trades based on RSI alone, right? 😉 Bonus: That Fair Value Gap (FVG) Gold left us a beautiful FVG on the chart – like bulls sprinting so fast they spilled their coffee on the carpet. This created a “gap” around 3300–3340. Markets hate mess. They’re perfectionists. And they often go back to clean up spilled coffee before moving on. This gap will likely be filled – the only question is: when? Will we get it today? Not likely. But hang tight… we’re not done. 🔮 My Take… Today I expect a gentle slide. Price feels drawn to 3355 like a moth to flame. 3340 looks like solid support, if price decides to keep sliding. Do I think we’ll fill the entire FVG today? Nah. There’s not enough momentum behind this right now. But there’s a wild card: the Geopolitical Joker. If Israel launches a full-on ground offensive in Gaza, that’s like tossing a boulder into a calm lake. War = Uncertainty = FEAR. And fear drives money into gold like it’s a medieval castle during a dragon attack. When fear hits, RSI doesn’t matter. FVG? Forget it. EMAs? Irrelevant. Money flees risk assets (stocks, crypto) and dives headfirst into the safety of gold. Two Battle Plans Ahead: 1. The Cleaning Crew Scenario: No geopolitical drama yet. Price slides gently, fills part of the FVG, maybe tests 3340. If we reach 3330, gold might chill there, gather strength at the 3315 support, and maybe bounce for a new bullish run. 2. The Iron Dome Scenario: The news hits. Boom. Fear skyrockets. Gold ignores all technicals, skips the cleaning, and rockets toward 3400, maybe even 3440. No questions asked. What Would I Do Today? Time for the sniper strategy. No chasing the herd. No standing in front of a speeding train. We wait for clear signals. Buying now? Risky – price might retrace. Shorting in this bullish mess + geopolitical tension? Market suicide. Patience is key. If price just chops sideways while everyone holds their breath over the headlines… entering a trade now could backfire spectacularly. Not financial advice – just a gold-obsessed human sharing thoughts. What about you? Will gold clean up the mess, or will the fear-fueled stampede into gold send us sky-high? And now… for my fellow gold-hunters, the same analysis in Hungarian, because some things just hit harder in your mother tongue A tegnapi nap érdekes volt, de lehetett rá számítani. Most az a kérdés mi jön a buli után mert 3385-ig felnyomták az árat. A mai elemzés kicsit részletesebb lesz mert vannak geopolitikai hírek ami nagyon befolyásolhatja az arany árát. A jelenlegi megpihenés még nem a trend végét jelenti, csak rápihenés a tegnapi bulira. Konfetti még a hajakba, de rendetlenséget hagytak, így a takarítás ideje jött el. Az EMA-k az 1 órás charton felfelé trendet mutatnak, de ott is látszik egy kicsi megtorpanás. Az 50-es EMA (narancssárga) lehet az a pont, ami eldönti az arany sorsát. Ha átszakítjuk, akkor jöhet a 3340-es szint. Arena TrendIQ: A trenderő még mindig erős. 41-es értékkel mutatja, hogy itt nincs vége a bulinak. Jelenleg a felfelé menő trend kezd gyengülni az 1 órás charton de még a horizont felett van. Ami érdekes hogy a short vonalunk is megközelítette a horizontot. Ha még lejjebb fog ereszkedni az ár akkor mennyire befigyel horizont fölé. Arena RSI: Tegnap is benéztünk a túlvett szint felett azóta szépen csorog lefelé ami látszik a charton is. Felszúrt 3385-ig túlvett szint megvolt majd kapott egy pofont és lefelé vette az irányt. Jelenleg a 4 órás RSI-EMA alatt van, ami önmagában shortos jel, de csak RSI-re nem lépünk be pozícióba. Mit látunk még? Azt hogy hagyott nekünk egy szép FVG-t az aranyunk. A bikák annyira siettek felfelé, hogy "kiöntötték a kávét" a szőnyegre. Ez a grafikonon egy üres terület, egy "rés", amit az árfolyam otthagyott maga után (kb. a 3300-3340 közötti zónában). A piac pedig perfekcionista, utálja a rendetlenséget és a foltokat. Nagyon gyakran visszatér, hogy feltakarítsa maga után kiöntött kávét, és még tovább menne. Ezt hívjuk Fair Value Gap (FVG) betöltésnek. Számíthatunk rá? Hogy a viharba ne... De nem ma! 🔮szerintem... Ma finom lecsorgás lesz a piacon. A 3355-ös szint vonzza most az árfolyamot. A 3340-es sáv jó támasznak ígérkezik, ha tovább szeretne lefelé menni. Szerintem ma nem tölti be a teljes FVG-t, mert nincs mögötte ebben a pillanatban azaz erő, ami odáig levinné az árat. És van itt még valami, ami totál áthúzhatja a szép finoman lecsorgás elméletét, ami nem más, mint a Geopolitikai Joker. Ha Izrael valóban megindítja a szárazföldi hadműveletet, az egy hatalmas kő a tóba dobva. A mechanizmus: Háború és bizonytalanság = FÉLELEM. A félelem pedig a befektetőket a legősibb menedékbe, az aranyba hajtja. Ilyenkor nem számít az RSI, az FVG, vagy a mozgóátlag. A pénz a kockázatosabb eszközökből (pl. részvények, kripto) az aranyba menekül. Az arany ilyenkor olyan mint a viharban a stabil, masszív kőház. Amikor kint dörög az ég és villámlik, mindenki oda akar bejutni, biztonságba. Most van két forgatókönyvünk tehát, így a helyzet ravasz és furfangos. A technikai kép egy kisebb, egészséges visszahúzódást, a "takarító hadműveletet" valószínűsíti. A fundamentális kép pedig ennek az ellenkezőjét. A Takarító Brigád Forgatókönyv: A geopolitikai helyzet nem szól bele azonnal. Az árfolyam szépen lecsorog, hogy feltöltse az FVG egy részét, de a 3340-ig totál egészséges lenne. Ha meg lesz a 3330 ott erőt gyűjthet esetleg az alatta lévő 3315-ös támaszon és onnan indulhatna egy új stabilabb emelkedésnek. A Vaskupola Forgatókönyv: Jön a hír... A félelem-faktor az egekbe szökik. Az arany ignorál minden technikai szintet elfelejti a takarítást és azonnal kilő célba véve a 3400-as, majd a 3440-es szinteket. Én mi tennék ma? A legjobb stratégia most a "lesben álló mesterlövése". Nem rohanunk a csorda után és nem is állunk a vonat elé. Megvárjuk, amíg a piac dönt. A jelenlegi szintről vásárolni kockázatos a visszahúzódás miatt. Shortolni pedig egy ilyen bikás trendben és geopolitikai helyzetben öngyilkosság. Várjunk a jelekre, mert ha csak simán oldalazás lesz se le, se pontosan azért mert mások is figyelnek a háttérre, akkor nagyon megszívhatjuk. Ez nem befektetési tanács, csak egy aranyrajongó véleménye. Ti hogyan látjátok? Jöhet a takarítás, vagy a menedék aranyban most mindent visz?
PYTH:XAUUSD
by Katsumi-Nohara
1
Gold is under pressure. Can the upward trend continue?On Thursday, gold rose rapidly in the European session, reaching around 3397, but failed to successfully break through the 3400 integer mark; it currently fell back slightly and fluctuated around 3375. Judging from the 4-hour chart, the price is currently running close to the middle track of the Bollinger band; since the market opened this week, the gold price has continued to run above the middle track of the Bollinger band. Despite the slight decline, it has remained within the upward trend channel and has continuously set new highs. The current upward pressure position remains at 3390-3400, and the key support level is around 3370, which is also the crossover position of the current MA5, 10, and 20 moving averages. The RSI indicator remains above its midline, indicating that bullish momentum remains. Quaid believes that as long as the price remains above 3370 in the US session, any pullback will be a sign of accumulating upward momentum. Gold still has the trend of hitting the 3400 integer mark. Trading strategy: Go long near 3370, stop loss at 3360, profit range 3380-3390-3400. Short near 3400, stop loss at 3410, profit range 3375-3365-3355.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by quaid_2
1
Gold short – Head and Shoulders Setting Up on 15min?There’s a potential head and shoulders pattern forming on the 15-minute chart. 📌 What I’m watching for: A 15min candle close back inside the neckline range Lower volume on the right shoulder vs. the left (to confirm weakening momentum) 🧠 Trade Idea (Short bias) 🎯 Entry: 3380.9 ❌ Stop Loss: 3388.0 ✅ Take Profit 1 (50%): 3358.9 ✅ Take Profit 2 (50%): 3346.3 ⚖️ Risk/Reward: 3.8R This setup lines up with my trading method that focuses on structure, volume, and clean risk/reward. 🤔 What are your thoughts on gold today? Are we about to roll over — or will bulls push through resistance?
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDShort
by GTradingMethod
2
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD August 6, 2025📊 ________________________________________ 🔍 Momentum Analysis • D1 Timeframe: Daily momentum is showing signs of a potential bearish reversal. However, we need to wait for today’s candle to close to confirm the signal. While waiting for confirmation, price may still experience a minor upward move on lower timeframes, but the current bullish momentum is weak and unlikely to extend far. • H4 Timeframe: Momentum is also preparing to reverse. We need to observe the current H4 candle for confirmation. Notably, the reversal signal is forming just below the overbought zone, suggesting there may be one more upward push before a potential decline. • H1 Timeframe: Momentum is approaching the oversold zone. It may take 1–2 more bearish candles before a short-term bullish rebound occurs. ________________________________________ 🌀 Elliott Wave Structure Update Yesterday’s bullish move was disappointing — instead of pushing directly to the 3402 or 3419 target zones to complete Wave 5, price only broke slightly above 3385 before reversing. This behavior complicates wave analysis by introducing conflicting possibilities. We currently consider two main scenarios: Scenario 1: Wave 5 is not yet complete • Given that D1 momentum is preparing to reverse downward, it’s unlikely that the current move is Wave 1 of Wave 5. A more likely scenario is that Wave 3 of Wave 5 has completed and price is currently in Wave 4. • The current corrective structure has stopped at the 0.382 Fibonacci level. As long as price remains above 3370 (the 0.5 Fib level), this strengthens the case for a Wave 4 retracement before another leg up in Wave 5. • Since bullish strength appears limited, we now focus on two main target zones for Wave 5: 3395 and 3402, instead of the previous high at 3419. Scenario 2: Full 5-wave structure is complete – now in correction • If the 5-wave pattern has already finished, the current decline marks the beginning of a corrective phase. • With current momentum conditions, this is still a viable scenario. However, due to the remaining upside possibility, we recommend waiting for today’s D1 candle to confirm momentum before taking any trade. ________________________________________ 📌 Trade Plan For experienced traders: • Wait for price to reach the 3395–3402 zones. • Look for reversal signals in those areas to enter short positions. Suggested trade plan for newer traders: • Sell Zone: 3395 – 3398 • Stop Loss: 3408 • Take Profits: o TP1: 3385 o TP2: 3370 o TP3: 3349 ________________________________________ ✅ Note: This trade plan should be reassessed after today’s D1 candle closes for confirmation of the momentum shift.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by WavePoint_FX
1
GOLD (XAUUSD) -Monthly Analysis & Trading Plan (Aug 2025)GOLD (XAUUSD) -Monthly Analysis & Trading Plan (Aug 2025) Title: XAUUSD: Correction in Progress, Patience is Key for the Next Move Chart: XAUUSD Monthly (1M) Analysis Type: ICT/SMC, Price Action, & Moving Average Summary: After a historic and powerful bull run that saw Gold (XAUUSD) breach all-time highs in the first half of 2025, the market has entered a significant corrective phase. The massive red candle in June signaled a strong reversal of momentum, and the current July candle confirms that sellers remain in control, albeit with less intensity. This is a critical juncture for long-term traders, and a strategic approach is required. Key Observations & Analysis 1. **Price Action & Market Structure:** The move from late 2024 through May 2025 was a textbook "impulsive leg." The sharp reversal in June 2025, with a powerful bearish candle, likely acted as a **liquidity grab** or a **high-volume distribution event**, trapping late buyers. The market is now in a clear **break in market structure (BOS)** to the downside on this long-term timeframe, suggesting the correction is not over. 2. **ICT/SMC Concepts:** * **Imbalance/Fair Value Gap (FVG):** The rapid bullish move created significant imbalances on the monthly chart. Price often returns to fill these gaps. The current correction is likely heading to fill or test these inefficiencies. * **Order Block (OB):** The massive bullish move in late 2024/early 2025 likely created a strong bullish order block. The current sell-off is heading toward this potential institutional demand zone. * **Liquidity:** The lows from late 2024 and early 2025 will be key liquidity pools. Smart money will likely be targeting these areas for a potential reversal or accumulation. 3. **Moving Average Analysis (MMA):** * The price is currently trading above both the purple and yellow moving averages, which are still pointing upward. This confirms the long-term trend remains bullish, and the current move is a correction within that trend. * The **purple moving average** is a key support level to watch. A test of this level would be a high-probability event, and its reaction will be crucial for the next major move. Suggested Entry & Exit Levels 1. Aggressive Entry (Short) Rationale The bearish momentum, though slowing, is still the dominant force. An aggressive trader could look for a continuation of the short-term bearish trend. Entry/b] A short entry could be considered on a pullback to the recent highs around **$3,400 - $3,500** if a strong bearish candlestick pattern forms on a lower timeframe (e.g., weekly or daily). Stop Loss A tight stop-loss placed just above the recent high, for example, **$3,600**. This is a high-risk entry, so position sizing should be small. Target The first major target would be the **moving average support level**, roughly in the **$3,000 - $3,100** zone. The ultimate target for a full correction would be the order block from late 2024, around **$2,800**. 2. Conservative Entry (Long) Rationale The long-term trend is still bullish. The current move is a correction. The most prudent approach is to wait for a high-probability long entry at a key support level. Entry/b] Wait for price to reach the **purple moving average support zone (around $3,000 - $3,100)**. Look for a clear reversal signal on this level, such as a large bullish "pin bar" or "engulfing candle" on the monthly or weekly chart. This would be a high-probability demand zone for a reversal. Stop Loss A stop-loss should be placed below this key support level, perhaps around **$2,850 - $2,900**, giving the trade room to breathe. Target The first target for a new bullish leg would be the New swing high around **$3,800**. The ultimate long-term target would be a new all-time high above **$4,000**. Conclusion The Gold market is in a crucial phase. The bullish party from earlier in 2025 is over for now, and a healthy correction is underway. **The most logical and safe approach is to wait for the market to complete its corrective move.** Do not attempt to catch a falling knife. Instead, be patient and wait for price to reach a key institutional demand zone (our moving average support or the late 2024 order block) and show a clear sign of reversal. This will present a high-probability, low-risk long entry for the next impulsive move up. Disclaimer This is not financial advice. Please perform your own due diligence and risk management. Trading involves a significant risk of loss.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Muhammad_Aoun
3
From Execution to Adaptation: Enter Dynamic ProbabilitiesIn the previous article , we looked at a real trade on Gold where I shifted from a clean mechanical short setup to an anticipatory long — not because of a hunch, but because the market behavior demanded it. That decision wasn’t random. It was based on new information. On structure. On price action. It was based on something deeper than just “rules” — it was about recognizing when the probability of success had changed. That brings us to a powerful but rarely discussed concept in trading: 👉 Dynamic probabilities. ________________________________________ 📉 Static Thinking in a Dynamic Market Most traders operate with static probabilities — whether they realize it or not. They assign a probability to a trade idea (let’s say, “this breakout has a 70% chance”) and treat that number as if it’s written in stone. But markets don’t care about your numbers. The moment new candles print, volatility shifts, or structure morphs — the probability landscape changes. What once looked like a clean setup can begin to deteriorate. Conversely, something that looked uncertain can start aligning into high-probability territory. Yet many traders fail to adapt because they’re emotionally invested in the original plan. They’ve already “decided” what the market should do, so they stop listening to what the market is actually doing. ________________________________________ 🧠 Dynamic Probabilities Require Dynamic Thinking To trade dynamically, you must be able to update your internal odds in real time. This doesn’t mean constantly second-guessing or overanalyzing — it means refining your bias based on evolving context: • A strong breakout followed by weak continuation? → probability drops. • Price holding above broken resistance with clean structure? → probability increases. • Choppy pullback into support with fading volume? → potential reversal builds. It’s like playing poker: you might start with a good hand, but if the flop goes against you, your odds change. If you ignore that and keep betting like you’ve got the nuts, you’re not being bold — you’re being blind. ________________________________________ 📍 Back to the Gold Trade In the Gold trade, the initial short was based on structure: broken support turned resistance. The entry was mechanical, the reaction was clean. All good. But then: • Price came back fast into the same zone. • Sellers failed to defend it decisively. • The second leg down was sluggish, overlapping, and lacked momentum. • Compression began to form. That’s when the probability of continued downside collapsed — and the probability of a reversal increased. The market had changed. So did my bias. That’s dynamic probability in action — not because of a feeling, but because of evolving evidence. ________________________________________ 🧘‍♂️ The Psychological Trap Many traders intellectually accept the idea of being flexible — but emotionally, they cling to certainty. They fear being “inconsistent” more than they fear being wrong. But in a dynamic environment, consistency of thinking is not about repeating the same action — it’s about consistently reacting to what’s real. True consistency is not mechanical repetition. It’s mental adaptability grounded in logic. ________________________________________ 🧠 Takeaway If you want to trade professionally, you must upgrade your mindset from fixed-probability execution to fluid-probability reasoning. That doesn’t mean chaos. It means structured flexibility. Your edge isn’t just in spotting patterns — it’s in knowing when those patterns are breaking down. And acting accordingly, before your PnL does it for you. Disclosure: I am part of TradeNation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDEducation
by Mihai_Iacob
1
GOLD Forming Bullish Pattern Read DescriptionGold is showing bullish momentum after a weaker-than-expected NFP report, which undermines the USD strength and increases demand for safe-haven assets like gold. With softer labor data, the market is now pricing in potential Fed rate cuts in the coming months, supporting upside pressure on gold. Technical Analysis: Price has respected the support zone and is now forming a bullish structure. If price holds above 3362, bullish momentum is expected to continue a Next targeting 3400 and 3419 – Strong resistance zone from recent highs You May find more details in the chart. Trade wisely best of luck Buddies. Ps: Support with like and comments for better analysis.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MrMartin_11
9
XAUUSD H4 Update – The Battle Has Moved to 3350 “From deep demand to key supply. The next move is decisive.” 🔸 Sunday Plan Recap Price was falling aggressively into the HTF demand zone (3265–3240). The plan anticipated a bounce only if that deep zone held. Above price, major zones included: 3314 – mid-structure 3330–3345 – supply zone 3368–3380 – final retracement targets 🔸 What Changed? ✅ The deep demand zone worked — H4 CHoCH bullish was confirmed. ✅ Price climbed through 3285 and 3314, confirming a retracement leg. 🔥 Now, price sits at 3349.57, testing the same supply zone marked in Sunday’s plan (3330–3345). 🔸 Current H4 Structure 🔼 Short-term bias = bullish retracement 📍 Price = inside HTF premium zone 📈 EMAs aligned bullish (5/21/50), confirming short-term momentum 💡 RSI = approaching overbought ⚔️ Liquidity above 3355, trapped shorts below 3314 🧠 Today’s Battle Plan (August 1) 🔴 Sell Zone (live) – 3345 to 3355 Price just entered the key H4 supply zone. Watch for rejection signs: Bearish confirmation needed (e.g. M15/M30 CHoCH or engulfing) If confirmed → downside targets: 3314 → 3285 → 3265 High RR short only if structure confirms 🔵 Breakout Bullish Case If 3355 breaks with a clean body + HL at 3340 → bullish continuation active Next upside target: 3368 → 3380 🧭 Final Thoughts We’ve reached the exact decision zone from Sunday’s plan. The market will now reveal: retracement over... or breakout coming? Patience is key — this is a high RR zone, but only if structure reacts. 💬 Did you catch the move from deep demand? Or waiting for confirmation here at supply? 📈 Share your thoughts in the comments and let’s break it down together. 🔔 Follow for real-time market insights, sniper plans, and structured trading logic you can trust. ❤️ Like if you enjoy clean, actionable updates🚀🚀🚀 🔁 Share with traders who love structure over noise 📉 Price data from Trade Nation feed
TRADENATION:XAUUSD
by GoldFxMinds
Gold Price Outlook: Bearish Trend DevelopingGold has broken below key top resistance, indicating potential for continued downside movement. The US Dollar's recent rise has slowed amid renewed concerns about the US-China trade truce and profit-taking ahead of this week’s key employment data, following already strong GDP and ADP reports. While the dollar remains supported overall, uncertainty is capping its momentum, indirectly adding short-term volatility to gold. The price action suggests a bearish breakout from key resistance zones. Momentum is building toward the downside, indicating the market could continue lower unless strong support levels hold. A potential bearish flag or breakdown structure is forming, and if confirmed, we may see a decline toward next support zones. 📍 Key Levels to Watch: Resistance: 3310 / 3320 Support: 3269 / 3240 If gold remains below the broken resistance and fails to reclaim 3320, the bearish pressure is likely to continue. Watch upcoming employment data as it could add volatility and confirm the direction. You may find more details in the chart. Ps: Support with like and comments for better analysis Thanks.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MrMartin_11
4
XAUUSD H4 Outlook – August 4, 2025Structure is bullish — but supply is layered. Precision now matters more than bias. — Gold is trading at 3362, sitting right inside the heart of a key structural zone. After a strong breakout from 3285–3260, price reclaimed imbalance, broke internal structure, and powered higher into premium. The trend is bullish — but we’ve just stepped into stacked supply. Let’s break down every zone that matters now, from top to bottom: 🟥 3360–3375 – Valid H4 Supply Zone This is the first active supply block — the origin of the last bearish leg. It holds a clean OB + imbalance and is currently being tested for mitigation. We're inside it right now. This zone is critical: → If price breaks and holds above it, continuation is likely → If we reject here, it confirms sellers are defending their level 🟥 3385–3398 – Internal Supply Trap A secondary supply zone built from previous order flow. If bulls push through 3375 without rejection, this is the next area to watch for weakness. This zone often creates fake breakouts, especially when momentum slows. RSI is already showing signs of exhaustion approaching this level. 🟥 3420–3440 – HTF Supply Trap This is the top — the last unmitigated supply on the weekly. It's not in play yet, but if bulls break above 3398 decisively, this is where the bigger trap could form. Any long into this zone must be backed by strong structure and continuation candles — otherwise, it’s a liquidation magnet. 🟫 3322–3310 – Flip Reentry Zone If we reject from current supply, this is the first high-probability reentry for bulls. It’s where the last CHoCH confirmed, and it aligns with EMA confluence and minor imbalance. Buy setups from here must be confirmed on M15/M30 — no blind longs. 🟦 3285–3260 – Breaker Demand Base The true origin of the bullish move. This zone caused the structural flip — clean OB, FVG stack, and liquidity sweep. If price returns here, it becomes a must-hold for bullish continuation. One of the best sniper zones for longs. 🟦 3222–3205 – Final Demand Layer Deep structure zone holding imbalance + previous HL base. Only comes into play if 3260 fails. A break below this would shift bias to neutral or bearish on H4. 🎯 Bias Summary ✔️ H4 bias = bullish ✔️ Price is inside 3360–3375 supply ✔️ EMA 5/21/50 aligned, but RSI is elevated ⚠️ This is not a breakout — it’s a test zone 🔁 Execution Plan 📍 Rejection from 3360–3375 → sell scalp toward 3322 📍 Clean break of 3375 → watch for next short at 3385–3398 📍 Failure of 3398 → HTF draw toward 3430–3439 📍 Pullback toward 3322–3310 → potential long zone 📍 Clean drop to 3285 → high-RR buy area 📍 Break below 3260 → only valid demand left is 3222 — This is not the time to chase. It’s the time to stalk. You’re in premium. Supply is active. Let structure decide — you just execute with clarity. — Which zone are you watching for your next move? Comment your bias below 👇🏼 Smash the ❤️ if this brought clarity, and follow GoldFxMinds to trade with precision every day. Disclosure: Chart based on Trade Nation feed (TradingView).
TRADENATION:XAUUSD
by GoldFxMinds
XAUUSD Daily Outlook – August 4, 2025We’re not in breakout. We’re deep in premium — and supply is stacked. — Gold is now trading at 3362, sitting right inside the first valid daily supply zone — the same block between 3355 and 3375 that caused the last rejection. The bullish rally from 3272 was clean: liquidity sweep, CHoCH, imbalance filled, HL confirmed. Bulls did their job. Now they’re walking straight into pressure. Above this zone, things don’t get easier — they get trickier. Just a bit higher, we have an internal supply trap between 3398 and 3412. It’s a reaction zone built from imbalance and inducement — not strong enough to hold a reversal on its own, but perfect to fake out breakout buyers. If price pushes through 3375 and enters this pocket, snipers should be watching carefully for early signs of weakness. And finally, at the top of the current structure sits the HTF supply trap at 3430–3439 — the last weekly wick, the macro reversal zone. That level is sacred. If price makes it there, either we’ll see full-blown expansion… or a violent reversal born from overconfidence. So what do we do now? We wait. If price starts to reject from this 3355–3375 supply with bearish intent, we target the flip reentry zone at 3318–3328 — the previous CHoCH break and dynamic EMA cluster. That’s your first intraday long trigger if bulls want to come back strong. If that breaks, next is the demand base at 3287–3267, the origin of this entire bullish move. Below that? Imbalance support near 3225 — the final line before structure shifts. — 🟥 Valid Supply Zone → 3355–3375 🟥 Internal Supply Trap → 3398–3412 🟥 HTF Supply Trap → 3430–3439 🟫 Flip Reentry Zone → 3318–3328 🟦 Demand Base → 3287–3267 🟦 Imbalance Support → 3225–3205 — This isn’t a breakout. It’s a build-up inside premium. The smartest move today might be no move — until structure speaks. — Are you watching for the rejection? Or the breakout trap? Let us know your bias below 👇🏼 Tap that ❤️ if this gave clarity, and follow GoldFxMinds to stay ahead of every key level — no noise, just structure. — With sniper calm and strategic clarity, GoldFxMinds 💙 Disclosure: Analysis based on Trade Nation TradingView chart feed.
TRADENATION:XAUUSD
by GoldFxMinds
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TRADENATION:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
1
SMART MONEY CONCEPT (SMC)Bearish Analysis – Market Structure 1: Market Context • The price was coming from a strong bullish structure that had already mitigated the last remaining interest in the 4H OB. • A key resistance zone was formed where institutional investors closed buy orders. • The bullish momentum left a Fair Value Gap in 1H, which has not yet been mitigated. 2: Shift Signals • A fake out (false breakout) was observed above the resistance, followed by a Change of Character (Choch). • This indicates liquidity absorption and the possible start of a bearish phase. • Distribution structure confirmed before the bearish momentum. 3:Entry Plan and Target • Entry (Sell): In the upper zone after the 4H OB retest/resistance. • Stop Loss: Above the fake out wick (invalidation zone). • Take Profit: Around 3305, seeking to mitigate the FVG-1H and reach the previous support zone. • RR: High (favorable for swing or scalping with partials). 4:Confirmation and Management • Wait for confirmation on a lower timeframe (5M / 1M) before executing the entry. • Watch for a possible last liquidity grab before falling. • Manage with partials and move the SL to BE when the halfway point is exceeded. GOOD LUCK TRADERS…
CAPITALCOM:GOLDShort
by Fonseca87
GOLD | Gold Eyes Pivot at 3347 – NY Session Close KeyGOLD | Gold Eyes Pivot at 3347 – NY Session Close Key 🕯Gold slipped slightly on Tuesday due to a stronger dollar, but remains close to a two-week high amid growing expectations of a U.S. rate cut in September. ⏺ Price has begun to retreat from the 3380 resistance, now heading toward the pivot level at 3347. We’re watching for a potential reversal from 3347, especially if a 4H candle closes above this level during the New York session — this could trigger a bullish recovery toward 3365, and possibly retest 3380. ⏺ A confirmed breakout above 3380 would open the path for further upside toward 3402, but only if strong momentum is sustained. If price closes below 3347 on the 1H, and this is confirmed by a 4H candle, it would likely reactivate bearish pressure toward the 3320 support. • Resistance: 3365 – 3380 – 3402 • Support: 3320 – 3313
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SroshMayi
XAUUSD August 2025 Monthly OutlookWelcome to August — and welcome to the top of the macro ladder. Gold is not just rising. It’s rewriting structure. 🔸 Macro & Fundamentals Gold opens August with a fresh impulsive breakout above $3360, fuelled by a weaker USD, rising global risk sentiment, and continued speculative positioning from institutional buyers. The upcoming Jackson Hole meeting and shifting Federal Reserve expectations create the perfect climate for volatility. All eyes are now on the premium structure top — but will gold expand beyond it or retrace to refill? 🔸 Monthly Trend & Bias (HTF Overview) 🔹 Structure: Clean bullish BOS, continuation leg in progress 🔹 Last CHoCH: April 2023 → Confirmed full trend shift bullish 🔹 Current Monthly Candle: Explosive push into supply with top wick rejection beginning to show 🔹 Bias: Still bullish but in extreme premium — watch for cooling/rebalancing 🔸 EMA Structure | EMA Type | Status | Signal | | ----------- | -------------- | ------------------------------------- | | EMA 5 / 21 | Strong Bullish | Dynamic expansion, steep angle upward | EMA 50 | Below | Clean breakout from range | EMA 100/200 | Far below | Long-term uptrend deeply intact 🔸 Key HTF Levels (Wick-to-Wick Mapping) Zone Type Price Range Confluences 🔴 Premium Supply 3350 – 3439 Monthly FVG + Wick exhaustion + RSI 80+ 🔵 Bullish Imbalance 3180 – 3270 Monthly FVG + old BOS + EMA5 baseline 🔵 Mid-Level Support 2920 – 3000 Monthly OB + FVG + structure base 🔵 Deep Demand 2670 – 2780 HTF equilibrium zone + RSI support ✅ The current candle has pierced into the final wick supply, but with clear signs of loss in momentum. ⚠️ If 3439 breaks cleanly, next expansion zone opens toward 3505 → 3610 (Fibonacci projection). Otherwise, expect cooling to 3270–3180 first. 🔸 Fibonacci Context 🔻 Swing Low: 1810 🔺 Swing High: 3439 🎯 Current price ($3363) sits just below the 100% Fibonacci projection, with the 1.272 and 1.618 extensions at 3610 and 3740. This confirms we are in a macro premium, and any long positions from here forward must be built only on strong LTF confirmation or clean pullbacks into value. 🔸 August Scenarios 🟢 Scenario 1 – Breakout + Price Discovery If bulls break 3439 with strong volume and close: New leg toward 3505 → 3610 opens Watch for LTF continuation on H4–D1 with bullish OB reentry Only valid if 3350 holds as new support 🔻 Scenario 2 – Rejection + Healthy Pullback If price holds below 3439 and monthly wick exhausts: Clean retracement toward 3270 → 3180 expected EMA5/21 rebalancing will support bullish structure Deeper rejection could retest 3070 zone if volatility spikes 🔸 Conclusion & Action Plan We open August fully inside the last monthly supply zone. Trend is still bullish, but RSI, FVGs, and EMA distance warn us: this is not the time to chase — it’s time to wait for structure to speak. 📌 Key pivot = 3439. Above it → Expansion. Below it → Retracement. Let August unfold — but stay sharp. The next big move will be born from this compression. — What’s your take — are we just getting started or about to cool off? Drop your thoughts, chart it out, and stay ready for what August brings. ⚔️ — ❤️ Like if you enjoy clean, actionable updates🚀🚀🚀 🔁 Share with traders who love structure over noise With clarity, confidence, and control, GoldFxMinds
OANDA:XAUUSD
by GoldFxMinds