THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG:
That was a difficult move to capture! I would not blame anyone for getting frustrated and FOMO'ing. Thankfully, we stuck to our guns, price was manipulated but our targets are completed as is the move we highlighted on Sundays KOG Report. I even say here and thought what on earth are they doing, but, we gave a level of 3318 as the line in the sand, we bounced before that and BOOM, all Excalibur targets completed in one go.
Now, we have support below at the 3340-45 level which is where they may settle for the session, above 3340 we're still likely to see a retest of the level, however, we said there is a curveball this week, and look at what is happening. Can't remember the last time I saw price action this bad!
Price: 3337
RED BOXES:
Break above 3350 for 3355✅, 3362✅, 3370✅ and 3376✅ in extension of the move
Break below 3335 for 3330✅, 3322✅, 3320✅ and 3314 in extension of the move
As always, trade safe
KOG
GOLD trade ideas
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Jul 28 - Aug 01]This week, OANDA:XAUUSD prices had a positive start, rising sharply from 3,345 USD/oz to 3,439 USD/oz because investors were concerned about the risk of financial market instability when US President Donald Trump continuously pressured the FED Chairman to reduce interest rates, and there were even rumors of the Fed chairman resigning.
However, the upward momentum in gold prices was not maintained when the US continuously reached trade agreements with partners such as Japan, Indonesia, Philippines..., cooling down the trade war. This caused gold prices to drop sharply for three consecutive trading sessions, at one point the gold price dropped to 3,325 USD/oz and closed at 3,336 USD/oz.
Trade war worries are starting to subside. Therefore, we continue to witness a shift of investment capital flows from gold to risky assets such as stocks..
Notably, this week is the fourth time gold prices broke the $3,400 threshold but did not stay above this level.
Next week, in addition to the FED meeting, the market will also receive information about US non-agricultural employment (NFP) data. If this index falls stronger than expected, it will further strengthen expectations that the FED will continue to keep interest rates at the current level in upcoming meetings, causing gold prices to drop even more sharply next week.
📌In terms of technical analysis, the three crows pattern (3 long red candles) appeared on the D1 chart, showing that sellers were still in control throughout the past 3 trading sessions without much buying power. This technical pattern often suggests that gold prices may be shifting from their recent upward trajectory into a more prolonged period of decline. This technical signal also quite coincides with the context of many fundamental factors, such as geopolitical conflicts, trade wars, low physical gold demand in the summer... no longer strongly supporting gold prices as before. However, according to many experts, if the gold price drops sharply, it will be a good opportunity to buy, because the gold price is forecast to still increase strongly in the long term.
On the H4 chart, gold price may continue to adjust down below the 3,285 USD/oz mark, before recovering again. Meanwhile, the 3,450 USD/oz area is still a strong resistance level for gold prices next week.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 3,310 – 3,300 – 3,292USD
Resistance: 3,350 – 3,371 – 3,400 – 3,430USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3383 - 3381⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3387
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3316 - 3318⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3312
GOLD continues to correct down, good news from trade situationOANDA:XAUUSD has fallen sharply again, currently trading around $3,360/oz, reflecting the easing of global trade tensions, affecting demand for safe-haven assets. The US Dollar and US Treasury yields have also increased, affecting gold prices.
The US Dollar Index ( TVC:DXY ), which tracks the greenback against six other currencies, rose to 97.56.
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note US10Y rose to 4.386%. The US real yield, calculated by subtracting inflation expectations from nominal interest rates, rose nearly 3.5 basis points to 2.046%.
Markets are increasingly optimistic about such deals after the United States and Japan reached a trade deal, and the European Union could be next. In addition, rising stock markets and low volatility have kept gold's gains in check.
The United States and the European Union are moving toward a potential trade deal that would include a 15% tariff on EU goods and zero tariffs on some items.
The European Commission said Thursday that a negotiated trade solution with the United States is within reach.
“Our focus is on reaching a negotiated outcome with the United States,” a European Commission spokesperson told reporters about the EU-U.S. tariff talks. “We believe that such an outcome is achievable.” The European Commission has repeatedly said that its current priority is to reach a deal with the United States to avoid the 30% tariffs that U.S. President Trump has proposed to impose on EU products starting August 1.
On the economic data front, initial jobless claims in the United States unexpectedly fell last week, suggesting the job market remains solid.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Thursday that initial jobless claims fell to 217,000 in the week ended July 19, below expectations of 227,000 and down from 221,000 the previous week.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold is heading for its third consecutive day of decline since hitting the bullish target level sent to readers in the weekly edition on Sunday at $3,430.
Despite the sharp decline, gold still has enough technical conditions for an uptrend given its current position and structure.
Specifically, gold is still above the EMA21, which is considered the nearest support at the moment. Along with that, the uptrend price channel is the short-term trend. However, for gold to qualify for a short-term bullish cycle, it needs to be confirmed by price action above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, then the target is $3,400 in the short term, more than $3,430.
On the other hand, RSI is still holding above 50, and 50 in this case acts as momentum support. Therefore, gold still has room to rise.
In case gold is sold below EMA21, it may suffer a further decline with the next target around $3,310 in the short term, more than $3,300 and the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level. And if gold loses the support at the 0.382% Fibonacci level, it will qualify for a bearish cycle.
Intraday, the current position of gold price is still tilted towards the upside, and the notable price points will be listed as follows.
Support: $3,350 – $3,310 – $3,300
Resistance: $3,371 – $3,400 – $3,430
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3406 - 3404⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3410
→Take Profit 1 3398
↨
→Take Profit 2 3392
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3329 - 3331⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3326
→Take Profit 1 3337
↨
→Take Profit 2 3343
Daily gold analysisDaily gold analysis
Sell trade with target and stop loss as shown in the chart
The trend is down and we may see more drop in the coming period in the medium term
All the best, I hope for your participation in the analysis, and for any inquiries, please send in the comments.
He gave a signal from the strongest areas of entry, special recommendations, with a success rate of 95%, for any inquiry or request for analysis, contact me
XAUUSD Locked In| Waiting for 5M OB SparkPair: XAUUSD (Gold)
Bias: Bullish
Timeframes: 30M / 5M
Gold has followed structure beautifully — top-down alignment from 30M into 5M is clear. Price respected the 30M OB and showed intent, but now we’re approaching the moment of truth.
I’m watching the 5M OB for entry — this is where execution mode activates. No rush. I’m in analysis mode right now, but the shift is coming.
Entry zone is mapped, structure’s in place, order flow is aligned — all I need now is price to do what it always does: respect the blueprint.
Entry Zone: 5M OB
Target: 5M highs
Mindset Note: Patience before the spark. I don’t force entries — I wait for the market to hand me the move it already hinted at. ⚡️
The callback is coming to an end, don't chase the short easily#XAUUSD
The long positions held last night have already left the market at a loss😔. After the Asian session opened, I continued to watch the trend of gold, but it did not effectively rebound to the ideal target area. After repeatedly testing around 3393, I chose to manually exit the market📀.
Gold is currently somewhat overcorrected, with the hourly line falling into severe oversold territory📉. But the market will eventually return to the bullish trend🐂. Why do I say that? First, there are less than 8 days left before the final deadline for tariffs. Second, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut is also approaching. In the medium and long term, there is definitely no problem with being bullish. There will be initial jobless claims data later, which will affect the trend of gold today. We need to pay some attention to it👀.
From the daily line, the current Bollinger Band middle track is near the 3343 line, and the SMA60 moving average is near the 3330 below. In the short term, the downward momentum of gold is released, and it is expected to test the 3343 mid-line support below💪.
📊Therefore, we can consider going long again at 3360-3343 below and look towards 3375-3385. Short-term losses don’t mean anything. With the recent frequent news fluctuations, we still have a good chance to turn losses into profits🚀.
🚀BUY 3360-3350
🚀TP 3375-3385
Gold at Key Decision Zone – Bounce or Break?Price is currently hovering above a strong support zone, showing potential for a short-term bounce. 🔁
If this zone holds, we could see a bullish reaction toward the 4H trendline resistance above. 📈
However, a break below may lead price to drop and tap into the M30 Order Block (OB) for a deeper mitigation before any move up. ⚠️
If this happen we could look for potential sell till the OB test otherwise the buying opportunity should focused more
🎯 Watch these key zones carefully – market is at a decision point!
Both buy and sell setups possible depending on how price reacts at these levels.
GOLD Technical Analysis! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the GOLD next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 3387.7
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 3374.3
My Stop Loss - 3394.5
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Gold Trade Plan 21/07/2025 ( 3380-3400 ( Important Area))Dear Traders,
The price is inside an ascending triangle, and it is certain that we will see a definitive breakout above the previous high. However, the important point is whether wave 4 has completed and we are entering wave 5, or if we are still in the correction phase of wave 4. In case of a breakout and stabilization between 3380-3400, the price will continue its bullish trend. However, as long as this zone is not broken, I expect a correction towards around 3220-3240.
Regards,
Alireza!
Gold prices are under pressure, focusing on the Fed stormGold prices are under pressure, focusing on the Fed storm
Weekly gold price report: The rebound of the US dollar suppresses precious metals, and the market focuses on the Fed's policies and trade negotiations
Market review
On Friday (July 26), the international gold price was under pressure to fall, with spot gold falling 0.9% to $3,336.01/ounce, and COMEX gold futures closing down 1.1% to $3,335.6/ounce. The US dollar index rebounded from a low of more than two weeks, and the progress in US-EU trade negotiations weakened the demand for safe havens, which jointly suppressed the performance of precious metals.
Analysis of core influencing factors
The US dollar and trade situation
The US-EU trade agreement negotiations have entered a critical stage. The EU said that "the agreement is just around the corner", but member states still approved the potential counter-tariff plan. US President Trump said that he will negotiate with the EU on Sunday, with a probability of 50%. If the agreement is implemented, it may further suppress the safe-haven properties of gold.
The recent trade agreement between Japan and the United States also boosted market risk appetite, and funds flowed to risky assets.
Fed policy expectations
Despite the resilience of the US labor market (initial jobless claims fell to 217,000 last week, the sixth consecutive week of decline), the market generally expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at its July meeting.
Trump has recently pressured the Fed to cut interest rates and even made a rare visit to the Fed headquarters, sparking discussions on policy independence. Some analysts believe that if inflationary pressures ease, the Fed may release dovish signals in the second half of the year.
Fund positions and central bank demand
As of the week of July 22, hedge funds' net long positions in gold increased to 170,868 contracts, the highest level since April, reflecting the market's long-term concerns about trade tensions.
Central bank gold purchase demand still provides structural support for gold prices.
Geopolitical dynamics
Israeli-Palestinian conflict: Hamas said that the ceasefire negotiations have made progress, but the US statement caused a surprise, and the progress of subsequent negotiations may affect market sentiment.
Russia-Ukraine situation: Turkey coordinates all parties to hold a leaders' summit in Turkey. Russia and Ukraine have agreed in principle to meet, and potential peace plans may reduce the safe-haven premium.
Outlook for the future
Key short-term events:
US/EU/China trade negotiations: If progress is optimistic, gold prices may fall to the support level of $3,300/ounce.
Federal Reserve July resolution: Pay attention to the policy statement's hints on the path of interest rate cuts and the Fed's response to political pressure.
US non-farm data: If the employment data is strong, it may strengthen the expectation of "higher for longer" interest rates.
Technical aspect: Near $3,300/ounce may attract buying, but breaking through the previous high requires clearer signals of monetary policy shift.
Risk warning: Repeated trade negotiations, escalating geopolitical conflicts or unexpectedly dovish Fed may reverse the decline in gold prices.
GOLD: Bullish Continuation & Long Signal
GOLD
- Classic bullish formation
- Our team expects growth
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Buy GOLD
Entry Level - 3364.8
Sl - 3359.2
Tp - 3376.2
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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GOLD SHORT FROM RESISTANCE|
✅GOLD is set to retest a
Strong resistance level above at 3450$
After trading in an uptrend for some time
Which makes a bearish pullback a likely scenario
With the target being a local support below at 3414$
SHORT🔥
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Analysis of gold price trend next week!Market news:
This week, international gold recorded its biggest weekly decline in a month. Spot gold turned sharply lower after a sharp rise and finally closed lower. Signs of progress in US-EU trade negotiations hit the safe-haven demand for London gold prices. Geopolitical situation is also a factor in the downward trend of gold prices. On the 25th local time, Tahir Noonu, a senior Hamas official, said that Hamas was absolutely positive about the efforts of the relevant mediators, but was surprised by the US statement. Before the United States and the European Union made progress in trade negotiations, fund managers raised their bullish bets on gold to the highest level since April this year. The trade war has pushed gold prices up 27% this year. Although the easing of trade tensions will weaken safe-haven demand, gold has also been supported by strong buying from central banks.Next week, international gold prices will focus on US-EU and US-China trade negotiations. If the negotiations are optimistic, gold prices may continue to test the $3,300/ounce mark; in addition, focus on the Federal Reserve's resolution. After Trump's visit to the Federal Reserve headquarters, whether the Federal Reserve will maintain its independence will be highlighted in this resolution. Non-agricultural data will also be released on Friday, which needs attention.
Technical Review:
From the weekly gold level, gold is still in a wide range of 3500-3120. It has been fluctuating for ten weeks. The Bollinger Bands are gradually shrinking. MA5 and MA10 are running horizontally, indicating that gold fluctuations will continue. This time, gold stabilized and rose from 3247 to 3438 and then fell back. The current short-term range is 3247-3438! Next week, pay attention to the range of fluctuations and choose a new direction after the narrowing. The daily level is currently in the 4th wave adjustment. There is a high probability that there will be a 5th wave rise after the adjustment, and then a large-scale ABC adjustment will be started. At present, there are two changes in the structure of the 4th wave, one is the triangle contraction and the other is the ABC structure. No matter how it runs, the market outlook is to wait for low-level long positions to see the 5th wave rise. In the short term, gold is still oscillating and selling.
Next week's analysis:
Gold is still adjusting, but it has basically adjusted in place. The current daily price has also adjusted to the key support level of 3300. Similarly, the four-hour chart just stepped back to the upward trend line support, which is the short-term long order entry. Buy above the 3300 mark next week! Next week, gold is expected to further test the 3310-3280 support level. Gold at the 4-hour level peaked at 3438 and then fell back. It has now formed a unilateral trend. The K-line is under pressure from the 5-day moving average and continues to set new lows, and breaks the short-term upward trend line. The Bollinger band opens downward and diverges, and the MACD water cross diverges downward to underwater, indicating that the current gold trend is in an absolute weak position! Next, gold will continue to test the support near the previous low of 3300. If 3300 is not broken, gold buying will continue to have momentum. If 3300 is broken, the short-term rise will end, and the subsequent rebound will basically be just a correction. However, the current 4-hour green column shows signs of shrinking volume, so it is not easy to sell at a low level. Try to sell after the rebound correction, or buy at a low level!
Operation ideas:
Short-term gold 3305-3308 buy, stop loss 3297, target 3350-3370;
Short-term gold 3350-3353 sell, stop loss 3362, target 3320-3300;
Key points:
First support level: 3320, second support level: 3309, third support level: 3300
First resistance level: 3346, second resistance level: 3360, third resistance level: 3375
Gold (XAU/USD): Supply Zone Rejection & Bearish Breakdown Chart Breakdown:
Supply zone rejection: Gold revisited the “supply zone” (light green/grey area) and failed to break above — a classic signal of seller dominance.
Uptrend invalidated: A sharp rise (steep black trendline) ended with a peak marked by the green arrow, followed by a decisive breakdown.
Ichimoku Cloud test: Prices slipped through the Ichimoku components, reinforcing the shift to bearish sentiment.
Potential targets: The red/green risk‑reward box highlights a short position, targeting ~3,347 then ~3,318 levels (blue labels) as initial support zones.
Strong supply base: The extensive grey zone below marks a "stronger supply zone" — this could cap any modest bounce and keep the downtrend intact.
🔍 Interpretation:
Bias: Bearish — sellers have taken control after a failed breakout.
Strategy: Short on rallies toward the mid‑green/red box (~3,373–3,380), targeting ~3,347 first and then ~3,319. Watch for support at the strong supply region (~3,292) for potential reversal or consolidation.
Risk management: Keep stop above the red zone—above recent highs (~3,380+) to limit risk.
🚀 In a nutshell: After failing to break supply and losing its short‑term uptrend, gold appears poised for a pullback. The next key levels to watch are ~3,347 and ~3,319—where buyers might step back in, or the downtrend continues toward the deeper supply base.
7/25: Key Levels to Watch Closely for Next Week's TradingGood evening, everyone!
Due to health reasons, I had to take a short break from updates — thank you all for your understanding and support.
This week, gold rallied to the 3440 level, forming a double-top pattern, and has since entered a phase of consolidation with a downward bias, currently retracing back to the key 3337-332 support area.
While a short-term rebound is possible from the 30-minute chart perspective, the weekly structure is not favorable to the bulls. On the daily chart, price has once again reached the MA60 support, and is currently forming three consecutive bearish candles, which suggests that bearish momentum may continue.
Unless there is significant bullish news next week, the market may remain under pressure. Key levels to monitor:
Upside resistance zones: 3343, 3352, 3358, 3366, 3372, 3378, and 3386–3392
Downside support zones: 3337, 3332, 3323, 3312
If the weekly chart breaks down, watch for: 3300 psychological level and 3260 (weekly MA20)
Additionally, during this week's decline, a price gap has been left between 3395–3398. If the market starts to rebound on the 2-hour chart, there is a chance this gap will be filled. However, this area also serves as strong resistance, and any approach toward it could result in heavy selling pressure. Caution is advised in the event of a sharp rally.
I'm still recovering and unable to monitor the markets for extended periods. Once my health improves, I’ll resume regular updates. In the meantime, feel free to leave any questions, and I’ll do my best to respond. Thanks again for your continued support, and I wish everyone success and strong profits in the market!
XAU / USD 1 Hour ChartHello traders. We had a good push down with the overnight sessions. Pre NY volume starts in just over an hour from this writing. Let's see if we correct the move down with a push up or keep pushing down. My area of interest is marked on the chart. Lower time frame confirmation is always a must. We have big news here in the US today, unemployment, flash manufacturing PMI and flash services PMI as well. So any scalp trades I am trying to catch will be before the news. I am not trying to have an open trade when news happens. Be well and trade the trend. Big G get a shout out. Thank you so much for checking out my analysis / idea for this morning.
GOLD LOCAL LONG|
✅GOLD went down from
The resistance just as I predicted
But a strong support level is ahead at 3380$
Thus I am expecting a rebound
And a move up towards the target of 3400$
LONG🚀
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Gold-----Buy around 3400-3410, target 3430-3450Gold market analysis:
The current highest gold buying has reached around 3438, which is the daily pressure level. This position is the high ground position that has touched the top many times before. The time to buy at these positions will not be long. There have been many dives before. However, as far as the current trend is concerned, the general trend is still buying, and short-term operations still have to buy. The daily buying is still not enough and closed positive again. The daily moving average began to diverge. Today's idea is to follow the buying first. I estimate that gold will enter a large game structure repair below 3451. In theory, short-term buying can be done, but the difficulty of intercepting on both sides will be more. You can keep buying at a low price in the short term. If it breaks 3400, it will turn weak.
Our idea is to find buying opportunities above 3400-3410. The previous pattern was near 3405, and the daily moving average position was near 3390. The time and space for repair will be very large. If it breaks 3400, we need to think about whether it will enter a large technical adjustment.
Support 3400-3405, small support 3409, suppression 3438, 3445, 3451, the strength and weakness dividing line 3402.
Fundamental analysis:
Recently, it is all regular data, there is no big fundamentals and new news that can affect the market.
Operation suggestion:
Gold-----Buy around 3400-3410, target 3430-3450