move below 3273-3270 zone and wait for reaction from US NF news🔔🔔🔔 Gold news:
➡️ Gold prices are holding modest gains heading into the European session, though bullish conviction remains lacking, and the metal continues to trade below the key $3,265–$3,2703 support-turned-resistance zone. Meanwhile, the US dollar has come under some selling pressure, snapping a three-day winning streak after hitting a three-week high.
➡️ A mix of factors is discouraging traders from making aggressive bullish bets, thereby capping further upside in the precious metal. Investors remain hopeful for easing trade tensions between the United States and China—the world’s two largest economies. This optimism supports a broader risk-on sentiment, which in turn undermines demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
Personal opinion:
➡️ The 3265–3273 zone is a strong resistance zone for gold. A break above this zone would mean the end of the short-term downtrend and vice versa. Therefore, buyers and sellers will be aggressive to secure this zone. Today's US NF news will be a strong driving force for gold prices before the tariff information appears and covers the market.
➡️ Analysis based on resistance - support levels and trend lines combined with EMA to come up with a suitable strategy
Personal Plan:
🔆Price Zone Setup:
👉Buy Gold 3202- 3205
❌SL: 3198 | ✅TP: 3210 - 3215 – 3220
👉Sell Gold 3270 - 3272
❌SL: 3276 | ✅TP: 3266 - 3261 – 3255
FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
GOLD trade ideas
Bearish and bullish possibility The market created a 4h descending triangle and it broke out and retested but now it seems to be creating an ascending triangle pattern below, if the descending triangle plays out we could see the market reach within the weekly fvg at the 3185 area which will present buying opportunities and if the ascending triangle plays out we could reach the 3387 area, overall we just have to wait and react accordingly
( Gold ) Bearish Reversal Setup via Head and Shoulders Pattern Gold is showing signs of a potential short-term bearish reversal as a clear Head and Shoulders pattern has formed on the 30-minute chart. The price is testing the neckline near 3394, where a breakdown could trigger a move toward the 3330–3320 support zone.
🔍 Technical Analysis:
Pattern: Classic Head and Shoulders, indicating a possible shift in market structure.
Neckline level: Around 3394 – a break below confirms the pattern.
Indicator. Price is testing the lower boundary of the cloud; a clean break through supports the bearish case.
Volume Observation: Decreasing volume on right shoulder, suggesting buying momentum is fading.
Bearish Targets: Projected move based on pattern structure points toward 3330–3320.
🧠 Fundamental Backdrop:
U.S. Dollar Strength: Recent hawkish Fed comments and stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data are boosting the USD, putting pressure on gold prices.
Interest Rate Outlook: Rising yields are reducing gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset.
Geopolitical Calm: Lack of fresh geopolitical tensions reduces safe-haven demand temporarily.
Inflation Outlook: Stabilizing inflation may also reduce urgency for gold hedging.
💡 Trade Plan:
Short Entry: 3394 (after neckline break confirmation)
Target Zone: 3330–3320
Stop Loss: Above 3410
Risk-Reward Ratio: ~2:1 depending on final entry/exit points
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📌 Note: Wait for confirmation with a strong candle close below the neckline and increased volume before entering the trade. This is not financial advice. Please conduct your own research and manage risk accordingly.
Final Leg of Wave 4 Before Wave 5 RallyGold (XAUUSD) is forming a textbook impulsive Elliott Wave structure on the 1-hour chart.
Wave 3 peaked around 3,131 USD, followed by a corrective Wave 4 currently in progress.
Substructure shows wave (iii) ending at 3,150.57 and an expected wave (iv) bounce capped near 3,228–3,198 USD, followed by a final dip.
The projected Wave 4 termination zone lies within the confluence of:
A key demand area: 3,110–3,000 USD
Rising channel support
1.618 Fib extension of Wave A ≈ 2,982.93 USD
A bullish breakout from this zone would mark the beginning of Wave 5, aiming for new highs above 3,360+ USD.
📉 Short-term Bias:
Expect one more drop to complete Wave 4 within the gray demand zone.
📈 Medium-term Outlook:
Anticipating a strong Wave 5 rally once support holds and price breaks the descending resistance trendline.
🔻 Invalidation:
A break below 2,982 USD would invalidate this count and suggest deeper correction.
#XAUUSD #Gold #ElliottWave #Wave4 #Wave5 #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingStrategy #Forex #ICMarkets #PriceAction #1HourChart #FibLevels #BullishOutlook
GOLD Gold (XAU/USD) May 2025 Outlook: Dollar Dynamics and Directional Bias
Optimism about potential tariff reductions and trade agreements has reduced safe-haven demand for gold, pressuring prices to two-week lows near $3,200-3204
A finalized deal could further strengthen the US Dollar (DXY), exacerbating gold’s decline.
US Dollar Strength:
The DXY has rallied on trade relief and mixed Fed rate expectations, making gold more expensive for foreign buyers.
Interest Rate Differential: While futures price in Fed cuts starting June (four total in 2025), the dollar’s near-term resilience limits gold’s upside.
Technical Breakdown:
Gold broke below a multi-week symmetrical triangle, signaling a bearish wave which will be targeting $3,100–$3,000
Immediate resistance sits at $3,3287–$3,2780; a break above this zone is needed to invalidate the bearish structure.this level represent a broken demand floor and calls for retest.
US Jobs Data (May 2): Weak Non-Farm Payrolls (<130K) could revive rate-cut bets, supporting gold. Strong data (>150K) may extend dollar gains.
Fed Policy (May 7 Meeting): No rate changes expected, but hints of June cuts could trigger volatility.
May Directional Bias
Factor Impact on Gold (XAU/USD)
Trade Deal Progress Bearish (dollar strength, risk-on sentiment)
DXY Rally Bearish (inverse correlation reasserted)
Weak US Data Bullish (safe-haven flows, rate-cut speculation)
Geopolitical Shock Bullish (flight to safety)
Gold faces downside pressure in May, targeting $3,100-3000 driven by dollar strength and fading safe-haven demand. A close below $3,200 would confirm the bearish trend.
Upside Risks:
Escalation in Middle East tensions or renewed US-China tariff threats.
Disappointing US economic data (e.g., jobs, CPI) reviving aggressive Fed cut bets
Conclusion
The dollar’s strength and trade optimism dominate gold’s near-term trajectory, favoring a bearish bias in May. However, gold remains a critical hedge against unexpected geopolitical shocks or dovish Fed pivots. Traders should monitor the May 2 NFP report and Fed rhetoric for directional cues.
Gold Will be Bullish from a Historic Support LevelHello Traders
In This Chart GOLD HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET
today Gold analysis 👆
🟢This Chart includes_ (GOLD market update)
🟢What is The Next Opportunity on GOLD Market
🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit
This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
Gold 4H Outlook - XAUUSD May 4th🔍 XAUUSD – H4 Outlook (May 4, 2025)
Trend:
🔻 Bearish structure still intact after the lower high at 3533 (ATH) and CHoCH at 3420.
🔹 Price is now ranging below lower high, with weak demand attempts from 3200–3240 zone.
🔸 Order flow bearish unless major BOS above 3320.
🗝 Key H4 Levels & Confluences
🔵 3195–3220 → H4 Demand + EQ + FVG
🧲 Last strong reaction zone pre-rally
🔁 Untapped OB + minor gap
🔄 EMA21 dynamic support below it
🟣 FIBO 61.8% of swing leg (April move)
🔵 3280–3295 → H4 POI (Supply Flip Zone)
📉 Reaction to this zone previously rejected bullish continuation
🧱 Confluence with 4H OB + minor FVG + EQ
⚠ If broken → clean magnet toward 3320
🔺 3315–3325 → Major LH Zone + Liquidity Magnet
💧 Internal liquidity build-up
🟤 If flipped → could induce bullish CHoCH on HTF
🚨 Final decision zone before possible premium push
🔻 3050–3075 → Weekly OB + H4 FVG
⛔ Major HTF demand below current price
🔄 EMA100 crossover area
🧲 Long-term buy interest if macro risk spikes
⚠ Summary:
Gold remains in a bearish HTF context, but is holding at key demand near 3220.
Rejection from 3280–3295 could reinforce bearish continuation.
Break above 3325 flips structure bullish — until then, sellers still in control.
🙏 Like this breakdown? Boost and follow us for sniper setups all week.
📌 Important Notice!!!
The above analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always compare with your plan and wait for confirmation before taking action.
#XAUUSD #GoldOutlook #SMC #LiquidityHunt #SmartMoneyFlow
Gold trend: Buy up and do more!As the US dollar is approaching the key middle track of the daily line, it is not far away. It is expected to end the rebound correction and continue to start a weak trend decline. Therefore, gold may also have a short-term bottom at any time; the gold weekly 5-day moving average support has been tested, and the daily middle track has also been pierced, which is considered to have completed the task indicators. The next step is to wait for a wave of pullback. At least the bottom low point of the previous convergence triangle of 3260-3270 will be tested and confirmed. It is a matter of time; and after the test is completed, if the pressure cannot stand, there may be a second bottom test, a secondary low point or a double bottom, and then finally start a unilateral rise; of course, if 3200 is not the low point of tonight, and the lower shadow of the daily closing is short, then it may be necessary to test the last 3175 position before determining the short-term bottom;
XAUUSDThis 4-hour chart of Gold Spot / USD (XAU/USD) presents a bearish outlook based on the following technical analysis:
Key Highlights:
EMA Indicators:
EMA(9) is shown in blue and EMA(21) in orange.
Price is trading below both EMAs, suggesting bearish momentum.
Trendline & Price Action:
A descending trendline is respected with multiple rejections.
Price failed to break above this trendline, signaling continued downward pressure.
Fibonacci Retracements:
Key fib levels from the previous swing high to low:
0.382 at ~$3,271.91
0.5 at ~$3,260.83
0.618 at ~$3,250.13
Price is hovering between 0.5 and 0.618 retracement levels, which often act as reversal zones.
Support & Resistance Zones:
Daily Resistance: Around $3,290.20
Daily Support: Around $3,222.94
Multiple lower demand zones are marked:
$3,201.96 (minor)
$3,124.01 (1.618 fib extension)
$2,997.87 (2.618 fib extension)
$2,969.96 (major daily demand)
Projected Move:
The blue arrows suggest a break below $3,201.96 could lead to a drop toward:
$3,124.01 (1.618 extension), then
A potential pullback before resuming bearish trend
Ultimately targeting ~$2,997.87 and $2,969.96 (major demand)
Summary:
The chart suggests a short bias unless price breaks convincingly above $3,271–$3,290. The next bearish targets are $3,124 and $2,997, supported by the trendline, EMA resistance, and fib extensions.
Gold Breaks Wedge, 3270–3280 Now Key Pivot for RecoveryGold's recent retreat has slowed, forming a descending wedge pattern that has now been broken. This is a constructive setup for a potential upward reaction after falling $300 from the $3,500 high. The 3,270–3,280 zone is now the short-term pivot point. If this level breaks as well, the upward move may finally begin.
Potential targets include the 38.2% retracement level at 3,316 and the main resistance zone at 3,355–3,370.
XAUUSD Take ProfitThe gold trade I shared a few hours ago has hit Take Profit at the RRR 1:2 level. This was the second TP level.
For those who wish, you can hold the trade until the TP level at 3206.35.
If the price approaches this level, don’t forget to move your SL to the entry point.
Wishing everyone a pleasant end to the day.
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There is too much news supporting the increase in gold prices.🔔🔔🔔 Gold news:
➡️ Gold prices extended their rebound for a second straight day on Tuesday, driven by seemingly unstoppable buying interest amid growing pessimism surrounding the U.S. dollar and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
➡️ Despite renewed optimism that the United States may reach trade agreements with some partners this week, President Donald Trump's unpredictable trade policies continue to create market uncertainty, supporting gold's recovery after previous losses.
Personal opinion:
➡️ Trade and geopolitical headlines dominate, and speculation of interest rate cuts ahead of the Fed meeting and comments from Chairman Jerome Powell. There is too much news to support gold's bullish momentum at this time.
➡️Analysis based on important support and resistance levels and Fibonacci combined with trend lines to come up with a suitable strategy
Plan:
🔆Price Zone Setup:
👉Buy Gold 3221- 3223
❌SL: 3217 | ✅TP: 3227 - 3332 – 3337
👉Sell Gold 3402 - 3404 (Scalping)
❌SL: 3408 | ✅TP: 3298 - 3294 – 3290
👉Sell Gold 3417- 3420
❌SL: 3424 | ✅TP: 3414 - 3410 – 3405
FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
Gold Updates before NY - XAUUSD Tuesday May 6, 2025GOLDMINDSFX | XAUUSD 1H Updated Probable set-ups
Current Price: 3379 | 6 May 2025
Gold plays games. We play levels.
HIGH-PROBABILITY SELL REACTION ZONES (listed lowest to highest)
🔴 3382–3387 ⚠️
Trigger: 5M CHoCH + M-pattern
Note: This is a liquidity tap zone where price may react sharply. Quick reaction expected — not a trend changer.
Confidence: ⚠️ Short-term scalp opportunity with structure rejection
🔴 3404–3410
Trigger: LTF rejection + BOS
Note: Classic reversal zone after sweeping major liquidity. If we reject here, this may offer the best structured sell of the day.
Confidence: Strong structure-based sell zone
🔴 3425–3432 ❄️
Trigger: 1M CHoCH or sweep + engulfing
Note: Final institutional sweep zone above the visible range. If price pushes here without rejection, we wait. If it rejects, this is the sniper zone.
Confidence: ❄️ High-risk, high-reward level — confirmation mandatory
HIGH-PROBABILITY BUY REACTION ZONES (listed lowest to highest)
🟢 3303–3310
Trigger: 5M CHoCH + rejection wick
Note: Clean origin of bullish structure with unmitigated demand. If price returns, this may offer a strong long with confluence.
Confidence: Solid demand zone aligned with structure
🟢 3333–3340 ⚠️
Trigger: 1M CHoCH + wick rejection
Note: Riskier buy zone near premium — only valid with strong confirmation. Can become liquidity before deeper drop.
Confidence: ⚠️ Caution advised — use only with clear LTF reversal signs
FINAL STRATEGY
Sell interest builds heavily between 3382–3432 — structured reactions expected at key levels
Buy interest valid only below 3340 — anything higher is impulsive
No confirmation = no entry — we trade structure, not feelings
📌 Important Notice!!!
The above analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always compare with your plan and wait for confirmation before taking action.
Gold Intraday Trading Plan 5/6/2025As mentioned yesterday, a break above 3270 will signal the end of correction. Indeed after breaking the resistance, gold has gone up all the way to 3330. Right now there is a strong resistance at 3350. I will trade its breaking of structure or retest from 3270.
This is my strategy for today:
1. if 3350 is broken, upon retest, buy towards 3400 or even 3450.
2. Buy from 3270, 1st target 3350, 2nd target 3400
"XAUUSD Double Setup After Massive Manipulation! 200+ Pips"🚨 Gold (XAUUSD) Smart Money Play Unfolding!
Here's a clean breakdown of the current structure and why this could be a high probability setup:
🔥 First, notice the manipulation zone — classic Smart Money move where liquidity was grabbed aggressively before a shift in market structure. This sets the stage for a bigger play.
📉 Change of Character (ChoCh) confirmed after the sweep, showing clear intent for price to reverse. This is the first signal that buyers are losing control and sellers are stepping in.
📍 First Key Area: Fair Value Gap (FVG)
Price is now retracing into the FVG.
This is our 1st Entry Setup opportunity.
High R/R setup if rejection happens around this level.
📍 Second Key Area: Order Block (OB)
A stronger zone for deeper mitigation.
If price pushes through the FVG, this OB becomes a prime entry spot.
This is the 2nd Setup for another potential short entry.
🏹 Targets and Pip Count:
Immediate target zone offers around 211 pips from the first setup.
Deeper target from second setup offers up to 253 pips move.
🧠 Market Structure & Psychology:
After manipulation, Smart Money always seeks to rebalance inefficiencies (FVG) and mitigate institutional orders (OB).
Weak lows created will likely be swept to fuel the bigger move down.
Multiple liquidity pools above and below current price hint at another round of liquidity hunting.
⚡ Game Plan:
Monitor price action reaction around FVG for short triggers.
If broken, reposition entries at the OB zone.
🚀 Risk Management Reminder:
Always use calculated risk per trade.
Don't chase; let price come to your zone.
Protect capital first, then maximize profits.
✍️ In summary:
This setup shows classic Smart Money Concepts in action: manipulation, structure shift, FVG, OB mitigation — all aligning for a clean bearish move. If executed with patience, this could be one of the smoothest setups of the week!
➡️ Comment "GOLD READY" if you’re stalking this setup with me!
➡️ Tag your trading buddy who needs to see this!
Gold Intraday Trading Plan 5/2/2025As predicted yesterday, gold indeed broke 3270 support and went down just above 3200. Currently it looks pretty bearish in daily and below timeframes. But in higher timeframes, it is still bullish.
Since gold has hit my weekly target, I will be cautious to take any selling order today. Mainly because it's NFP day. We may see big market manipulation.
Nevertheless, I will closely monitor the resistance level of 3261-3271. If it holds, I will sell towards 3200 or even 3165. If it is broken, the correction could be over.
XAUUSD1. The Fed's interest rate decision dominates this week's market
(May 7) The Fed will announce the May FOMC interest rate decision and press conference. The market generally expects the interest rate to remain unchanged, but Powell's speech will be the key. The April non-farm payroll data was stronger than expected (an increase of 177,000 people), coupled with the Fed's concerns about inflation, Powell may continue his hawkish stance and emphasize "anti-inflation priority". If he releases a signal of "delayed interest rate cuts", it may suppress gold bullish sentiment; on the contrary, if it implies concerns about economic slowdown, gold may be supported. In addition, several Fed officials will go to Iceland to participate in an economic meeting on Friday, and we need to pay attention to their statements on monetary policy.
2. International trade situation disturbs market sentiment
Sino-US trade frictions continue to escalate, with the US imposing tariffs on China as high as 245% and hitting China's re-export trade. However, the US has recently released a signal of easing, with companies such as Walmart resuming orders from China and bearing tariff costs, showing that US companies have limited tolerance for high tariffs. China requires the US to cancel unilateral tariffs as a prerequisite for negotiations, and the prospects for negotiations remain unclear. In addition, the situation between India and Pakistan is tense again, and the rising geopolitical risks may boost demand for gold as a safe haven.
3. Market sentiment and capital flows
Domestic gold ETF holdings surged by 23.47 tons in the first quarter, indicating that institutional investors are optimistic about gold in the long term. However, Nomura Securities warned that gold may face a technical correction due to abnormal capital flows (GLD funds in and out) and overheated technical indicators (gold prices deviated from the 200-day moving average by 25%). In addition, COMEX gold speculative net long positions hit a 14-month low, and market sentiment was cautious.
Gold Technical Analysis Update:(XAUUSD)OANDA:XAUUSD
Not much has changed since my last update—gold remains stuck in the same range-bound, triangle pattern we've been tracking. The price action is definitely tightening, which usually means we're getting closer to a decisive breakout.
Key Levels:
- Support: 3300 is holding firm as a strong support level.
- Resistance: 3350 continues to cap the price as a major resistance, keeping gold within a wide range.
My outlook remains bearish for the short term, especially as gold is still trading below the golden Fibonacci zone (3375-3420). The weekly close also confirmed that sellers remain in control for now.
Today’s monthly close is particularly important and could set the tone for the next move:
- If gold finishes below 3330, this will strengthen the bearish outlook and open the door for a drop towards 3250, 3200, 3150, and even 3070.
- However, a breakout above the triangle and 3350 would force a reassessment of the short-term direction.
For now, I’m waiting for a clear breakout from this range to confirm the next major move.
Personal trade plan:
- I believe we can enter a sell trade here, with targets at 3250/3200/3150/3070.
- My stop loss is set at a 4-hour candle close above 3335.
As always, manage your risk and trade wisely. Good luck, traders! 🏆💰