GOLD trade ideas
XAUUSD Hi,
The Price was in an UPTREND before settling for consolidation, The moving Avarage is sloping downward, which indicates POTENTIAL REVERSAL.
We can only have a BULLISH CASE if the price breaks above the CONSOLIDATION RANGE with strong BULLISH CANDLESTICKS.
If the Candlestick Patterns show LONG RED BODIES it suggests STRONG SELLING PRESSURE , But if they begin forming HIGHER LOWS $ HIGHER HIGHS it will then be indicating BUYING PRESSURE.
Using Fibonacci Retracement Levels , We Identified KEY SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS, where price might REVERSE or GAIN STRENGTH. The common Levels 38.2 % , 50 % and 61.8% .
if the price retraces to the 38.2% level and bounces , it suggests BULLISH CONTINUATION
if the price drops to the 61.8% level it's a stronger SUPPORT ZONE , indicating POTENTIAL BUY PRESSURE.
A break below 61.8% may signal FURTHER DOWNSIDE.
The pattern formation like DESCENDING CONTRACTING TRIANGLE, FALLING CHANNEL and FALLING WEDGES indicate SELL ENTRIES.
OVERALL we are still on Consolidation and expecting to hit $3292 and then Experience a MINOR MELTDOWN TO at least $3193 and only then we will decide on where the market is headed to.
Will be back with FURTHER UPDATES.
Analysis and Layout of Gold at the Opening of the Market!The underlying logic behind the current price movements of gold has changed. Previously, the main factor driving the sharp increase and subsequent decline of gold prices around $3,500 was the tariff war. Currently, the situation has gradually shifted from tension to relaxation, and the latest news indicates that both sides are attempting to make contact in preparation for the next round of negotiations.
Attention should now be focused on the Federal Reserve. Previously, Trump asked the Fed to cut interest rates to mitigate the economic impact of the tariff war. Powell's resistance led to Trump considering replacing the Fed chair. The better - than - expected non - farm payrolls data on Friday implies that the Fed's interest rate cut will be postponed, which is bearish for the gold market. Therefore, gold prices are likely to decline further in the early next week.
On the other hand, since the global - largest gold ETF significantly reduced its positions after gold prices peaked at $3,500 on April 22nd, it has continued to reduce its positions slightly without any significant addition of positions. This, to some extent, suggests that gold prices may further decline.
If your current gold trading performance is not satisfactory and you hope to avoid detours in your investment, you are welcome to communicate and exchange ideas with us!
Trading Performance Review🎯 April 4 – May 3 | Trading Performance Review
Over the past 30 days, I executed 146 trades with a data-driven strategy focused on risk-adjusted returns and quantitative consistency.
🔍 Performance Metrics:
Total Trades: 146
Win Rate: 70.55%
Winning Trades: 103
Losing Trades: 43
Profitable Days: 22 / 30
No-Trade Days: 2
Winning vs Losing Trade Ratio:
✅ Winning Trades: 70.5%
❌ Losing Trades: 29.5%
Daily Outcome Distribution:
🟢 Profitable Days: 73.3%
🔴 Loss Days: 20%
⚪ No Trade: 6.7%
📈 This outcome reflects a strategy rooted in structured risk management, discipline, and probability-based execution — not impulsive decisions. Each trade was placed with purpose, not emotion.
With every data point, my trading edge sharpens. The goal remains the same: consistent performance through controlled risk and strategic action.
Progress is not measured by the number of trades, but by the quality of each decision.
The non - farm payrolls data has "disrupted" the gold market.This week’s trading wrapped up successfully. Our exclusive VIP trading signals achieved a 95% accuracy rate!
After the release of the non-farm payrolls data last night, the gold price dropped as expected, but then it quickly bottomed out and rebounded, continuing to maintain a volatile trend. Recently, the impact of the non-farm payrolls data on the gold market seems to be gradually weakening, and its fluctuation range is even smaller than usual. In the 1-hour chart of gold, the moving averages formed a bearish arrangement with a death cross pointing downward, and they eventually continued to diverge downward. Currently, gold is under pressure and has pulled back under the suppression at the level of 3,270. Therefore, the area around 3,270 will still be a crucial turning point between the bulls and bears of gold next week. Although there was a rebound in the late night for gold, in fact, the extent of the rebound was not significant compared with the decline. If gold fails to break through the pressure at 3,270 next week, at most, it will just be in a range-bound situation, and the bullish trend of gold will not reverse easily for the time being.
Trading Strategy:
Sell@3260-3270
TP:3230-3240
If your current gold trading performance is not satisfactory and you hope to avoid detours in your investment, you are welcome to communicate and exchange ideas with us!
Latest gold price range: 3230-3270Latest gold price range: 3230-3270
Important news:
The non-farm payrolls data released on Friday was strong: the next rate cut by the Fed may have to wait until July at least.
If the employment data is strong again in the future, the timing of the rate cut may be further delayed.
After the release of the non-farm data last night, the gold price fell as expected, but then quickly bottomed out and rebounded, continuing to fluctuate.
At present, the gold price is under pressure at the 3270 line and has fallen back, so the area near 3270 will still be the key turning point for gold bulls and bears next week.
If the gold price is under pressure at 3270 next week and does not break, it will fluctuate at most, and the gold bulls will not reverse directly and easily for the time being.
From the 4-hour chart analysis, the non-farm market has basically ended, and the upper side continues to pay attention to the suppression of the 3270 line, with a focus on 3300.
From a technical point of view, the gold daily line shows a bottoming rebound trend, and the price forms a short-term support in the 3230 line area.
Upper pressure: 3270-3300
Lower support: 3220-3230
Operation strategy:
1. It is recommended to short gold near 3260-3270 next week, stop loss 3270, target: 3240-3230-3220.
2. Long gold near 3220-3230, stop loss 3210, target: 3240-3260. If it breaks through, continue to hold;
Gold INTRADAY corrective pullback supported at 3218Gold slipped to the $3,200 area as optimism grew over possible US-China tariff talks, which boosted risk sentiment and pushed the US Dollar to a 3-week high. However, gold’s downside may be limited as traders grow cautious ahead of Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.
Despite USD strength, growing expectations of Fed rate cuts—possibly four by year-end—are supportive for gold in the medium term. This follows weak US economic data:
GDP contracted for the first time since 2022
PCE inflation is easing
Jobless claims hit a 2-month high
ADP jobs report showed cooling private-sector hiring
ISM Manufacturing PMI remained in contraction
Key NFP Expectations (Friday):
+130K jobs (down from 228K prior)
Unemployment Rate: steady at 4.2%
Wage Growth: +0.3%
Conclusion for Gold Traders:
Short-term pressure on gold from stronger USD and trade optimism, but soft US data and rising rate cut bets may provide support. Watch NFP closely — a weak report could trigger a bullish move in gold.
Resistance Level 1: 3392
Resistance Level 2: 3457
Resistance Level 3: 3500
Support Level 1: 3218
Support Level 2: 3173
Support Level 3: 3130
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How to layout gold before non-agricultural data🗞News side:
1. Progress in Sino-US tariff negotiations: The United States has recently contacted China through multiple channels, releasing signals that a trade agreement may be reached. Market concerns about trade friction have significantly cooled down, weakening the safe-haven appeal of gold.
2. The U.S. non-farm payrolls report for April will be released today (expected to add 130,000 new jobs). If the data is weak, it may strengthen expectations for an interest rate cut. On the contrary, if it is stronger than expected, the interest rate cut schedule may be further delayed.
📈Technical aspects:
Gold bottomed out yesterday and has now rebounded to around 3250. For the current market situation, the previous low of 3260-3270 has become an important resistance level above the gold price after the top-to-bottom conversion. In addition, non-agricultural data will be released in the U.S. market today. Therefore, if gold wants to reverse upward, the first resistance will be in the 3260-3270 range. If the counter pull from the bottom fails to stabilize at 3270, then there will be a downward trend. If it breaks through this resistance range, it may test the 3286 line. Before the release of non-agricultural data, the European market can be shorted when encountering resistance at 3260-3270. Everyone is waiting patiently for the opportunity to enter. The following focuses on the important support of 3200.
If you agree with this point of view, or you have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices.
XAUUSD Gold Trade Setup – Buy & Sell Zones | 2H Chart AnalysisThis XAUUSD (Gold vs USD) 2-hour chart analysis outlines a short-term swing trading plan using key supply and demand zones. Price has reacted from the Buy Zone (3197–3216) and is showing signs of bullish reversal. The target is the Sell Zone (3347–3363).
✅ Trade Plan:
🔽 Buy Entry:
Zone: 3,197 – 3,216 USD
Trigger: Bullish candle breakout above the falling trendline
Confirmation: Retest of breakout with bullish price action
🎯 Targets:
TP1: 3,302 (mid-range level)
TP2: 3,347 (Sell Zone bottom)
TP3: 3,363 (Sell Zone top)
🛑 Stop Loss:
Below 3,190 or latest swing low
🔼 Sell Setup (optional):
Zone: 3,347 – 3,363 USD
Look for bearish reversal patterns (e.g., bearish engulfing, double top)
Target retrace back to 3,302 or 3,260 area
Gold tests resistance: Will the correction continue?Gold is currently retesting a former support level, which has now turned into a significant resistance zone.
I expect a continuation of the decline. It looks like the commodity market may face a broad-based pullback, partly due to the strengthening DXY.
I don’t see this correction as a trend reversal — rather, it’s a natural move after a strong rally.
So, if you're considering short positions, caution is advised.
I'm expecting the price to move toward the area of 3100-3125.
XAUUSD H4 I Bearish Reversal Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 3259.47 which is a pullback resistance aligning close to the 38.2% Fibo retracement.
Our take profit will be at 3170.07, a pullback support that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibo retracement.
The stop loss will be placed at 3343.42, an overlap resistance.
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Gold's decline under pressure is in line with expectations!From the perspective of the gold hourly line, the morning closed with a full sun, effectively breaking through the resistance of yesterday's 3360-3397 box. Therefore, it is definitely necessary to try to confirm the continued bullish trend after a pullback. The continuous diving in the afternoon refreshed the intraday low, which can only mean that the market is washing out, and all the long and short positions are driven out, and then brewing again; If the European session remains weak below 3350, there may be some room for further decline tonight, but the continuity may not be great, and it is easy to stabilize and bottom out and pull up; the current support is 3320, 3315, and 3305. If a stabilization signal is touched around 22:00, it is bullish. I personally think that there is limited space below 3300, and resistance is 3360, 3365, and 3370. If a pressure signal is touched around 20:00, it will fall back first; if it returns to above 3370, the trend will gradually become stronger, and it will be treated as a wide range of fluctuations for the time being;
On the whole, today's short-term operation strategy for gold is to short on rebounds and long on pullbacks. The short-term focus on the upper side is 3370-3375 resistance, and the short-term focus on the lower side is 3280-3290 support. Friends must keep up with the rhythm.
Short order strategy:
Strategy 1: Short 20% of the gold position in batches when it rebounds to around 3365-3370, stop loss 10 points, target around 3330-3305, and look at 3290 if it breaks;
Long order strategy:
Strategy 2: Long 20% of the gold position in batches when it pulls back to around 3285-3290, stop loss 10 points, target around 3310-3330, and look at 3350 if it breaks;
XAUUSD: 8/5 Today’s Market Analysis and StrategyGold technical analysis
4-hour chart resistance level 3410, support level 3310
1-hour chart resistance level 3380, support level 3310
30-minute chart resistance level 3350, support level 3320.
Trump said that he would hold a "large press conference" at 10 a.m. Eastern Time tomorrow, and may sign a trade agreement with the UK. Therefore, the news affected the gold price.
Russia implemented a ceasefire from 0:00 on May 8 to 0:00 on May 11 local time. The temporary ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine and the repeated situation in the Middle East may support the gold price in stages due to the risk aversion demand.
Recently, affected by the news, the daily operation range of gold is very large. Today, we will first look at the 3320-3360 range of fluctuations in the short term. If it breaks through, follow the trend and strictly stop loss!
Buy: 3323 SL: 3318
Sell: 3355 SL: 3360
More free analysis daily sharing
Gold technical analysis and trading strategy
Affected by the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve and the strengthening of the US dollar, gold has been under pressure and fluctuated recently, but geopolitical risks and the news of Trump's upcoming "major trade agreement" have made market sentiment cautious. Some bulls chose to take profits in the Asian session, and the price fell from the highs, showing a long-short tug-of-war pattern on the technical side.
Technical structure analysis
Although the daily level has a top and bottom structure of long-short transformation, the price still holds steady at 3300, indicating that the medium-term trend has not weakened. The current price is running near the key neckline support, and the 3320-3300 area will become an important defense line for bulls, and the upper 3380-3400 constitutes short-term resistance. The hourly chart shows that the price fell below the lower edge of the previous trading day's oscillation box at 3370, the moving average system is arranged in a short position, and the MACD runs below the zero axis, and the short-term trend is weak. The European and American sessions need to focus on the breakthrough direction of the 3310-3365 range.
Operation strategy suggestions
Short-term trading:
If the price falls back to 3310-3315, try to buy with a light position, stop loss below 3299, target 3340-3350
Rebound to 3360-3365, short under pressure, stop loss above 3375, target 3330-3320
Trend layout:
If the price falls below 3300, short orders can be followed up to 3280-3260
If the price breaks through 3380 resistance, it is expected to restart the upward trend and test above 3400
Risk warning
Focus on the content of Trump's press conference in the evening. Any unexpected details of the trade agreement may cause drastic market fluctuations. It is recommended that traders strictly control their positions and do a good job of stop loss protection. The current market sentiment is sensitive, and the game between technical and news aspects is intensifying, so we need to remain flexible.
What’s America's Real Goal in a Possible India–Pakistan War?We are nearing the end of the petro-dollar era. The power balance of the new world order will be defined not by oil, but by the strategic resources essential for AI, electric vehicles, and cutting-edge technology.
Throughout the 20th century, the U.S. maintained its global dominance by controlling access to oil. From the Middle East to Latin America and Africa, wherever oil was found, the U.S. was there.
But today, the focus has shifted to rare earth elements, lithium, copper, and other strategic minerals.
Trump’s 2025 move to buy Greenland wasn’t a diplomatic joke—it was a signal. Behind-the-scenes deals in Ukraine for rare earth deposits tell the same story: whoever controls these "white gold" assets will lead the tech-driven world.
Now enters Pakistan, with mineral-rich lands spanning over 600,000 km², nearly three times the size of the UK. Experts estimate its underground reserves to be worth $8 trillion.
In Balochistan's Rekodik field alone, there are 12 million tons of copper and 20 million ounces of gold, with a copper purity of 0.53%, well above global standards. In the north, newly discovered lithium reserves could be a game-changer for the EV revolution.
This is no longer just about resources—this is about deciding the future balance of global power.
XAU/USD Live Market Breakdown – May 8, 2025📊XAU/USD Live Market Breakdown – May 8, 2025
🔹Current Price: 3,337.40
🔹Timeframe: 15M
📌Key Supply Zones (Resistance):
🔴3377–3382 – Major Supply Zone (previous BOS area)
🔴3362.85 – Minor intraday resistance (price failed to hold)
📌Key Demand Zones (Support):
🟢3272–3277 – Fresh demand; wait for confirmation before long
🟢3310.01 – Minor reaction area
🟢3274.13 – Deeper support if sell-off continues
📉Current Outlook:
Gold broke below multiple internal demand zones, confirming bearish momentum. Now trading inside the 3272–3277 HTF demand. This is a key zone to monitor for reversal or further breakdown.
📈Bullish Scenario:
Price must show bullish confirmation (engulfing/BOS) from 3272–3277 to consider long positions. Without confirmation, bias remains bearish.
⚠️Strategy Tip:
✅Wait for lower-timeframe BOS or CHoCH in green zone
✅Don’t catch falling knives – wait for confirmation
✅SL must go below zone; TP can target 3362 short-term
#XAUUSD #SmartMoneyConcepts #PriceAction #BreakOfStructure #GoldTrading #IntradaySetups #FXFOREVER #DemandZones #WaitForConfirmation