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CFDs on Gold (US$ / OZ)CFDs on Gold (US$ / OZ)CFDs on Gold (US$ / OZ)

CFDs on Gold (US$ / OZ)

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GOLD trade ideas

Gold Trapped? Everyone’s Long… But Price is Going Down!Gold (XAU/USD) is showing signs of exhaustion after its explosive rally that pushed it beyond $3,400. We are now witnessing a pullback phase, with price directly testing a key demand zone between $3,050 and $2,980. From a technical standpoint, this is the last major defense before a potential drop toward the $2,832 area. The current bearish pressure is supported by a powerful blend of macro, positioning, and behavioral factors: COT Report – Gold: Non-commercials (speculators) are aggressively closing long positions and opening shorts, which signals a breakdown in the short-term bullish narrative. On the other hand, commercials (hedgers), also known as the "smart money", are steadily increasing their long exposure, hinting at a potential accumulation zone forming. COT Report – USD Index: Speculative funds are stacking long positions on the dollar, which continues to add downside pressure on gold. As long as this persists, any upside attempt on XAU/USD will likely face headwinds. Seasonality: May tends to be historically bullish for gold, but June is seasonally weak. The strongest seasonal window opens between July and August, suggesting the possibility of a deeper pullback before the next bullish wave. Retail Sentiment: Over 75% of retail traders are long on XAU/USD, typically a contrarian signal. This sets the stage for a classic stop-hunt scenario, where price flushes lower to trigger retail stop-losses before a potential reversal. 📌 Conclusion: In true Bridgewater fashion, we’re seeing a divergence between positioning and price action. In the short term, gold remains vulnerable to a move toward $2,832. However, if that zone holds, it could provide a compelling opportunity to accumulate for a potential summer swing rally toward all-time highs.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
How should gold be positioned after the ADP data is released?Although the current ADP data is positive, and the US GDP in the first quarter is sluggish, the risk of US recession has increased, but gold has not risen sharply, and the 1H moving average is still radiating downward. At present, it can only be regarded as a short-term correction to the oversold area. If the upper 3300-3310 does not break, you can go short. Brothers who have made profits now can exit the transaction in time. We are patiently waiting for entry opportunities. If you agree with this point of view, or you have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices. TVC:GOLD FXOPEN:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by AllenBoswell
Gold operating range oscillation: 3360-3400Gold operating range oscillation: 3360-3400 Current market dynamics: Geopolitical risks subsided, and the Asian market implemented the policy of reducing reserve requirements and interest rates: gold prices fell sharply by $70 to 3360 during the day. Risk of the Fed's decision: The interest rate decision in the early morning is the core variable. No interest rate cut or a tough statement may suppress the gold price to 3320-3300; Unexpected interest rate cuts or dovish signals may push the gold price to rebound above 3430 points. Key technical points: 4-hour chart: Resistance level: 3436 points (78.6% Fibonacci retracement level), 3400 points (middle track pressure level). Support level: 3386 (61.8% Fibonacci), 3350 (50% Fibonacci, key node). Hourly chart level: Range oscillation: 3400-3360, double bottom support at 3360 (lower channel rail), breaking through 3400 will open up the upside space. Operation strategy: 1. Short-term short order: Entry point: short near 3398, stop loss 3410. Target: 3383 (initial support level), 3375 (lower edge of hourly line oscillation), final target 3360. Logic: The market may remain cautious before the Fed's decision. If the 3400 resistance is effective, the technical retracement will be effective. 2. Long layout conditions (need to wait for confirmation): Hold the 3360 double bottom, and go long with a light position after stabilization. The stop loss is set below 3350, and the target is 3400+. Logic: If the Fed releases easing signals, technical resonance may trigger buying. 3. Breakthrough follow-up strategy: Break above 3400: chase long, stop loss 3380, target 3430-3450. Break below 3350: chase short, stop loss 3370, target 3320-3300. Summary: Gold is at a critical node of the game between technical aspects and news aspects. Short-term recommendation is to focus on high-altitude below 3400, but be wary of unexpected reversals caused by the Federal Reserve. Prudent people can wait and see for the time being, and intervene after the trend becomes clear after the decision. If the price fluctuates rapidly, give priority to protecting the principal and avoid carrying orders.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Louisa00112
XAUUSD Macro & Equity Market Overview: Global equities are showing signs of fragility following a strong rally, with the S&P 500 down 0.8%, the Nasdaq 100 off 0.9%, and the Dow Jones losing nearly 390 points. Weakness was broad, with Russell 2000 (-1.1%) underperforming, indicating rising risk aversion toward small caps. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) spiked 4.7% to 24.76, reinforcing the shift to defensive positioning. Key drivers include renewed concerns over Trump’s tariff rhetoric, which hit pharma and trade-sensitive sectors, and an apparent stall in momentum after a multi-session rebound. Fed rate expectations remain a key overhang — traders are waiting for the Federal Reserve’s next move while the U.S. 10Y yield holds above 4.31%, showing sticky long-term inflation expectations. Germany’s political instability adds to risk-off sentiment in Europe. ------------------------ Oil (WTI/Brent) – Day Trading Outlook: Crude oil (WTI) is trading around $58.67, having bounced 4% from recent multi-year lows triggered by OPEC+ supply announcements and economic concerns. The U.S. shale outlook has turned structurally bearish, as noted earlier, with capital expenditure and rig count cuts signaling a near-term production rollover. This underpins a medium-term bullish case. For intraday traders, today's move matters because oil has recovered above the psychological $58 level, with Brent back at $62.59. Volatility is elevated, and the price action suggests a reversal from oversold conditions. Energy sector ETFs (XLE) were flat despite market-wide weakness, signaling possible rotation back into oil stocks. Watch for upside continuation above $59.50 WTI, with a likely target zone around $61.20–61.80 intraday if risk appetite stabilizes. ------------------- S&P 500 – Day Trading Outlook: Technically Heavy, Breadth Deteriorating The S&P 500 closed at 5,606, down 43 points, with negative breadth across almost every major sector. The only strength came from Utilities (XLU +1.2%), underscoring a defensive rotation, while Technology (XLK -0.8%), Financials (XLF -0.6%), and Health Care (XLV -2.8%) led to the downside. Market internals suggest further downside is likely unless bond yields soften or volatility retreats. The S&P 500 is struggling at 5,600–5,640, and intraday resistance sits at 5,630–5,650. A break below 5,585 opens downside toward 5,545–5,500 in the short term. Key bearish indicators: High-yield credit (HYG) is flat to negative. Small-cap underperformance. U.S. equity factors: value, core, and growth all showing -0.8% to -0.9% performance in every size bucket. ---------------- XAU didnt change from weekend. The U.S. 10Y and 30Y yields remain above 4.3% and 4.7% respectively, capping gold’s upside, but risk-off sentiment and volatility (VIX > 24) are providing strong tailwinds.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by Buranku
X1: GOLD/XAUUSD Buy Risking1% to make 3.70% | Manage your riskX1: Risking 1% to make 3.70% GOLD/XAUUSD Long for day trade, with my back testing of this strategy, it hits multiple possible take profits, manage your position accordingly. Risking 1% to make 3.70% Note: Manage your risk yourself, its risky trade, see how much your can risk yourself on this trade. Use proper risk management Looks like good trade. Lets monitor. Use proper risk management. Disclaimer: only idea, not advice
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MuhammadTrades
2
Wed 7th May 2025 XAU/USD Daily Forex Chart Buy SetupGood morning fellow traders. On my Daily Forex charts using the High Probability & Divergence trading methods from my books, I have identified a new trade setup this morning. As usual, you can read my notes on the chart for my thoughts on this setup. The trade being a XAU/USD Buy. Enjoy the day all. Cheers. Jim Note: This isn’t a great setup as price is already at the previous high and the MACD is just below the zero level. But I had to take it because I am committed to my MSH (multi sequence hedging) strategy. So if you are a traditional type trader, then standing aside on this trade would probably be the smart thing to do.
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSDLong
by JAGfx
GOLD China’s massive gold purchases carry significant geopolitical implications that reshape global economic and financial power dynamics: 1. Dedollarization and Reduced US Dollar Dominance China’s aggressive gold accumulation is a core part of its strategy to reduce dependence on the US dollar amid rising geopolitical tensions and economic decoupling. By increasing gold reserves-while sharply cutting US Treasury holdings-China aims to insulate itself from dollar-related risks such as sanctions or asset freezes, as highlighted by the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict experience. This shift undermines the dollar’s global reserve currency status and supports the emergence of a more multipolar currency system. 2. Enhanced Sovereignty and Financial Security Gold provides China with a tangible, sovereign asset that cannot be frozen or devalued by foreign powers. This strengthens China’s economic autonomy and resilience against external pressures, especially amid ongoing US-China trade conflicts and Taiwan tensions. Physical gold reserves bolster confidence in China’s currency (yuan) and financial system, helping to back efforts to internationalize the yuan and reduce reliance on Western financial infrastructure. 3. Geopolitical Influence and Economic Restructuring China’s gold market dominance is part of a broader “economic divorce” from the West, reflecting deglobalization trends and the formation of alternative trading and financial systems led by BRICS and allied nations. By controlling significant gold supplies and refining capacity, China gains leverage in global commodity markets and strengthens its geopolitical influence, challenging US-led economic order. 4. Impact on Global Financial Markets and US Economy China’s gold buying fuels a “virtuous cycle” for itself but a “vicious cycle” for the US: rising gold prices in dollar terms signal dollar weakness, prompting further diversification away from dollar assets, reducing demand for US Treasuries, pushing US bond yields higher, and increasing US borrowing costs. This dynamic pressures US fiscal stability and economic growth. 5. Strategic Resource Control and Long-Term Planning The recent discovery of a massive gold deposit in China’s Hunan province (over 1,100 tonnes) further strengthens China’s position, potentially boosting reserves by 44% and reducing reliance on imports. This strategic resource control enhances China’s ability to influence global gold supply and pricing, reinforcing its geopolitical and economic ambitions.
PYTH:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
Gold Swing Short Trade Setup**Gold Market Analysis: Potential Reversal Formation** Gold is finally showing strong signs of a potential top formation after an extended bullish run. After weeks of anticipation, yesterday's price action delivered a significant rejection candle at the psychologically important 3500 level, which could indicate the reversal signal we've been waiting for. It's essential to recognize that in a robust bullish rally, tops can take longer to form than initially expected, as we've observed recently. The market often exhibits both time and price extensions in such conditions. Nevertheless, the rejection at 3500 in conjunction with the current technical setup suggests that we may be seeing a reversal pattern taking shape. **Trading Perspective:** From a trading standpoint, I am currently awaiting a confirmation candle (a follow-up to yesterday's rejection) to validate that the top is in place. If we witness follow-through selling pressure today or tomorrow, it could present an excellent swing short opportunity, with the following targets established: - **Target 1 (TP1):** 3295 - **Target 2 (TP2):** 3250 - **Target 3 (TP3):** 3200 - **Target 4 (TP4):** 3170 - **Target 5 (TP5):** 3070 (psychological support level) Stay vigilant and ready for potential short opportunities as the market unfolds. Let’s see if the signals align for a successful trade. Happy trading! OANDA:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD EIGHTCAP:XAUUSD EIGHTCAP:XAUUSD
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by SRFXGlobal
Technical Breakdown on Gold Spot / USD (XAU/USD) | 1H TimeframeTechnical Breakdown on Gold Spot (XAU/USD) – 1H Chart using Volume Profile, Gann, and CVD + ADX 1. Key Observations (Volume, Gann & CVD + ADX Focused) a) Volume Profile Insights: Value Area High (VAH): 3,312 Value Area Low (VAL): 3,230 Point of Control (POC): High-Volume Nodes: Dense cluster near 3,229–3,250 and again around 3,312 Low-Volume Gaps: Noticeable void between 3,260 – 3,290, suggesting possible fast movement zone b) Liquidity Zones: Liquidity Pools: Order Absorption: c) Volume-Based Swing Highs/Lows: Swing High (Volume Spike): 3,312 – area of rejection with reduced follow-through Swing Low (Reversal Support): 3,230 – heavy volume absorption followed by rally d) CVD + ADX Indicator Analysis: Trend Direction: Currently shifting bullish after a prolonged downtrend ADX Strength: ADX > 20 with DI+ > DI- (early bullish momentum building) CVD Confirmation: 2. Support & Resistance Levels a) Volume-Based Levels: Support: Resistance: b) Gann-Based Levels: Swing Low: 3,230 Retracement Levels: 3. Chart Patterns & Market Structure a) Trend: Turning bullish (CVD rising, ADX > 20, price forming HLs) b) Notable Patterns: Reversal Base formed near 3,230 with upward breakout Forming ascending channel – prices respecting the lower boundary support Retest of breakout zone (POC + lower trendline) acting as potential launchpad 4. Trade Setup & Risk Management a) Bullish Entry (CVD + ADX confirm uptrend): Entry Zone: 3,240–3,250 (near lower trendline + POC retest) Targets: Stop-Loss (SL): 3,225 (below POC + swing low) RR: Approx. 1:2.5 b) Bearish Entry (Only if trend reversal confirmed): Entry Zone: Below 3,225 (loss of POC/VAL with CVD breakdown) Target: T1: 3,200 (psychological + historical support zone) Stop-Loss (SL): 3,255 (back above POC) RR: Approx. 1:2 c) Position Sizing: Use 1–2% capital per trade to manage downside risk
FX:XAUUSDLong
by ProspireWealth
Gold Price Analysis – XAU/USD 4H Chart | Supply Zone Rejection +Gold is currently trading at $3,259, showing signs of rejection from a major supply zone around $3,271 - $3,259, highlighted by LuxAlgo's Visible Range. The price tapped into the high-volume area and faced rejection, signaling potential downside. Key Levels: Resistance (Supply Zone): $3,259 – $3,271 Current Price: $3,259 First Support: $3,200 – price previously reacted here. Second Support: $2,998 – a significant former resistance turned support. Major Demand Zone: $2,576 – strong institutional buying area. Bearish Bias If: Price fails to reclaim the $3,259-$3,271 zone. Break and close below $3,200 could trigger a move toward $2,998. Momentum below $2,998 opens a path toward $2,576, especially if macroeconomic data favors USD strength. Watch For: Reaction near $3,200 (potential bounce or continuation). NFP or major U.S. economic data (highlighted on the chart) that could spike volatility. Trade Idea: Short-term traders may look for short opportunities if the current supply zone holds. Confirmation would be a bearish candlestick close below $3,200. Risk Management: Use tight stops above $3,271 to limit exposure. Monitor macro events closely. --- What do you think – will Gold hold the $3,200 support or break lower? Drop your analysis below! #Gold #XAUUSD #PriceAction #SupplyAndDemand #TechnicalAnalysis #LuxAlgo #Forex #Commodities #TradingStrategy #ChartAnalysis
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FrankFx14
XAU/USD 01 May 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025 Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday. Price is now trading within an established internal range. Intraday Expectation: Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200. Note: With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment. Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bearish. Price has printed as per my analysis dated 24 April 2025 by targeting weak internal low and printing a bearish iBOS. Price has subsequently printed a bullish CHoCH to indicate, but not confirm bullish pullback phase initiation. Internal structure is now established, however, I will continue to monitor price regarding depth of pullback. Intraday Expectation: Price to trade up to either premium of internal 50% EQ, or M15 supply zone before targeting weak internal low priced at 3,221.320 Note: With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment. Trump's tariff announcement will most likely cause considerably increased volatility and whipsaws. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
Gold at $3,260: Buy the Fourth Dip?Gold prices have stabilized today after experiencing an earlier decline that represents the fourth dip down to the $3260 level over the past few sessions. The repeated defense of this support level could indicate strong buyer interest at these prices. Recent reports suggest an easing of trade tensions which might be weakening demand for gold. But have tensions really eased to any great extent? Commerce Sectary Howard Lutnick announced yesterday the U.S. is close to 1 trade agreement with 1 mystery trade partner (rumored to be India? But why not brag about that if true) isn't the kind of progress that consoles me. But is it time to buy? The consistent support at $3,260 coupled with a potential move above $3,375 could provide the technical confirmation needed for renewed confidence in this kind of trade.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
1
#BEARISH MOVE EXPECTEDIn this analysis we're focusing on 1H time frame for gold. In this analyze we are using downward trendline along with the combination of price action. When price enter in our supply area, so our first step is to observe how price will react and if price give any bearish confirmation then we'll execute our trade. Confirmation is very important. Always use stoploss for your trade. Always use proper money management and proper R:R ratio. This is my analysis not a financial advice. #XAUUSD 1H Technical Analysis Expected Move.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TradeTacticsreal
XAUUSDThe Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 4.25%–4.50% for the third consecutive meeting underscores a cautious stance in light of rising economic uncertainties. While the U.S. labor market remains strong—evidenced by robust non-farm payroll figures in April—the Fed has pivoted its tone. Policymakers now highlight increasing risks of both higher inflation and higher unemployment, largely driven by the Trump administration’s expansive tariff threats. As stated by the FOMC, “uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further.” This warning reflects not only concern over direct cost pressures from tariffs but also the broader economic impact on business investment and consumer confidence. The gold market (XAUUSD) is currently reflecting investor anxiety and hedging behavior. With a current price of $3,382.91, despite a slight daily decline of –$46.00 (–1.3%), gold is up a remarkable +28.90% year-to-date, making it the best-performing major asset shown in the dashboard. This performance aligns with expectations during periods of rising inflation concerns and geopolitical tension, both of which are now compounded by uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy. The Federal Reserve’s dovish shift—combined with falling real interest rates and weaker equity sentiment—continues to support the appeal of gold as a hedge. Unless we see an unexpected acceleration in Fed tightening or a dramatic de-escalation in global risks, gold is likely to remain elevated and could potentially test new highs over the coming months, especially if inflation prints come in above expectations. Conversely, the U.S. equity market—particularly the S&P 500 (SPX)—is showing signs of stress. As of now, the S&P 500 sits at 5,605.67, down –13.41 points (–0.2%) on the day, and –4.69% year-to-date. The broader equity picture reflects caution, with high-growth sectors like Technology (XLK –0.12%) and Communications (XLC –0.52%) dragging down the Nasdaq 100, which is down –6.19% YTD. Investors appear to be rotating into more defensive sectors, such as Real Estate (XLRE +3.14%) and Financials (XLF +2.75%), which tend to perform better when interest rates stabilize and volatility rises. With the Volatility Index (VIX) at 24.72, market participants are bracing for more turbulence ahead. Given the Fed’s policy pause and corporate earnings risks tied to unpredictable tariff policies, we are likely to see continued choppiness in the equity markets. The S&P 500 may struggle to gain significant traction unless there is a material policy shift or strong upside surprises in earnings. The U.S. dollar is showing short-term resilience but is under structural pressure. The USD/JPY pair is trading at 143.7235, up +1.3215 (+0.9%), indicating near-term strength. However, the broader context points to a potential weakening trend. U.S. Treasury yields are declining—2-year at 3.76%, 10-year at 4.292%, and 30-year at 4.785%—which signals markets are pricing in slower growth and a higher probability of rate cuts later in the year. The Fed’s dovish tone and concerns about future inflation have also led to increased demand for inflation-protected assets, as shown by the modest gain in TIPs (TIP ETF at 109.33, +0.05%). Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar is slipping against other major currencies like the euro (EUR/USD at 1.1326, –0.0044) and the pound (GBP/USD at 1.3306, –0.0062). These dynamics suggest that the dollar may face renewed weakness over the next several months, particularly if the Fed signals a pivot to rate cuts or if geopolitical tensions ease, diminishing safe-haven demand. Market sentiment overall remains fragile. The commodity space is softening, with Crude Oil (CL1) down –1.6% to $81.02, and Brent Crude (CO1) off –1.5% to $61.13, reflecting cooling global demand expectations. On the equity factors front, growth stocks are underperforming across all size classes, while value and core stocks are faring better—a classic defensive setup as investors prepare for a lower-growth regime. Outlook for the Next Few Months: Looking ahead, we can expect gold to remain well-supported, potentially pushing toward new highs if inflation data accelerates or geopolitical risks persist. Its performance will also benefit from any further softening in the dollar or Fed rate cut signals. For the S&P 500, the outlook is neutral to bearish in the near term. Without clear resolution on trade policy or a shift in Fed strategy, earnings uncertainty and cautious sentiment are likely to weigh on equity valuations. Defensive sectors may outperform, while growth sectors could continue to lag. As for the U.S. dollar, while it could see short-term support from relatively higher yields compared to Europe or Japan, the broader direction over the coming months is likely to tilt downward, especially if the Fed becomes more openly accommodative.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by Buranku