THE KOG REPORT - NFPTHE KOG REPORT – NFP
This is our view for NFP, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price.
We’ve done well this week on gold, capturing the high into the low and then taking the long late session which has nearly completed our higher target for a decent week on this precious metal. As we’ve said, best practice is to let this play out, let them take it to where they want, once it settles, then look for the trade.
We have support now at the 320-35 level which is a key level that will need to break in order to reverse and go lower. This level also lines up with our Excalibur levels and red boxes so we can say it’s pretty strong. Above, we have the 3270-75 region which is the previous order level, our volume indicator is suggesting a pull back, so rejection there can take us back into support to settle for the NFP release. It’s this level, if held which can push this upside and our thoughts are at the moment, are they going to take this back into the previous range and hold it there into the close.
So as long as 3240 holds us, we’re likely to see higher pricing for now, 3310-20 is the key level above which needs to break to then give us the flip and potential for a new all time high.
For now, let’s sit back and see what happens.
RED BOXES:
Break above 3262 for 3265, 3270, 3275 and 3288 in extension of the move
Break below 3252 for 3240, 3236, 3230 and 3220 in extension of the move
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
GOLD trade ideas
Lingrid | GOLD Market COMPRESSION: Coiling Up Before BREAKOUTOANDA:XAUUSD is forming a potential triangle pattern after bouncing from support near 3,220, where multiple key levels converge. The price is holding above the short-term upward trend-line, showing signs of compression. If buyers defend this area again, we could see a breakout toward the 3,380 resistance. Until then, the pair remains in a consolidation phase.
📈 Key Levels
Buy zone: 3,280 – 3,290
Buy trigger: bounce from trend-line
Target: 3,380
Sell trigger: break below 3,280 with confirmation
💡 Risks
Gold remains sensitive to USD news — strong data can limit upside.
A sudden break of the triangle base may shift bias to bearish.
Volatility expected ahead of key macro releases this week.
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
GOLD - FVG-Based Long & Short Setup Within Range ContextPrice action remains range-bound with well-defined FVG zones acting as both support and resistance, offering reactive trading opportunities on both sides.
---
1. Upper FVG as Resistance — Short Setup Trigger Zone
The highlighted upper green zone marks:
- Fair Value Gap (FVG): A clear inefficiency from the previous bearish impulse.
- Structural Significance: Price has struggled to break and hold above, showing signs of supply reactivation.
This zone is likely to attract sellers upon revisit, offering a clean risk-defined short opportunity.
---
2. Lower FVG as Support — Long Setup Zone
The lower blue zone serves as:
- FVG Rebalance Area: A region where price previously left inefficiency, now acting as strong support.
- Accumulation Interest: Smart money often reloads in such imbalanced areas on retests.
This zone is optimal for positioning into the next bullish leg should price dip lower.
---
3. Liquidity Sweep Mechanics — Trap Both Sides
The market structure hints at:
- Step 1: Induce buyers into breakout longs into resistance.
- Step 2: Reverse from FVG, triggering short entries and trapping longs.
- Step 3: Collect liquidity from lower range, potentially initiating new accumulation.
This movement pattern is characteristic of engineered liquidity grabs in both directions.
---
4. Mid-Range Reaction — Key Pivot Area
Price currently hovers around the mid-range zone:
- Serving as a temporary balance point before volatility expansion.
- Acting as a launchpad for the next impulsive move, depending on order flow dominance.
Patience here is key — waiting for clean confirmations near FVGs provides optimal entry quality.
---
5. Summary:
- Upper FVG Resistance → Short Bias
- Lower FVG Support → Long Bias
- Structured Reactions Around Imbalances Suggest Smart Money Activity
This is a dual-sided setup ideal for reaction-based traders awaiting price confirmation at extremes.
Hellena | GOLD (4H): SHORT to 38.2%-50% Fibo lvl 3228.Colleagues, last week we got a stoploss, but I still believe that we should expect a correction in wave “2”. We will try to catch this movement this week.
I believe that the price will correct to the area of Fibonacci 38.2% - 50% levels (3228.41).
Perhaps the price will slightly renew the maximum of wave “1”, reaching the level of 3438. In this case I recommend to work with pending limit sell orders.
And some data:
The prevalence of bulls according to CME reports additionally increased by 13%.
The 23% increase in market volume, meanwhile, indicates a likely strong momentum pattern during the trading week.
Despite the 13% increase in buyers, selling patterns towards the balance level of the week (3200.00) are recommended for the current trading week.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Gold - This is still clearly not over!Gold - TVC:GOLD - just needs a moment to breathe:
(click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻)
It is just incredible how Gold has been rallying lately. Just over the past 1.5 years, Gold is up another +80% and is creating new all time highs every month. Since these strong rallies continue a lot longer than most people think, Gold still has significant upside potential.
Levels to watch: $3.500, $4.000
Keep your long term vision!
Philip (BasicTrading)
GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Please see update on our 4h chart route map today after 2 days of smashing targets on the 1h chart idea.
Once again another great day on the markets today. We got our Bearish 3282 and our Bullish 3343 targets hit. No cross and lock on either level, so we are seeing tennis between both Goldturns.
We will look for a ema5 cross and lock on either level to determine the next move. We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
3343 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3343 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3404
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3404 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3439
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3439 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3503
BEARISH TARGETS
3282 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3282 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3224
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3224 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
3190 - 3138
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3138 WILL OPEN THE SECONDARY SWING RANGE
SECONDARY SWING RANGE
3088 - 3046
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Gold latest market analysisAt present, the gold 1-hour moving average crosses downwards and the short positions are arranged. Now it is under pressure at 3270 and is suppressed and falls back. 3270 is still the key turning point for gold bulls and bears. Although there is a rebound, the magnitude of the decline is not large. If the pressure at 3270 is not broken, the gold bulls will not reverse easily for the time being. After the rebound, it will continue to fall, which means that the strength of gold bears is still there, and the gold reversal will naturally not reach a new low, so that the gold bulls will usher in a new turn. Gold operation strategy reference: Short (buy short) two-tenths of the position in batches near the rebound of gold at 3260-3265, stop loss 6 points, target near 3230-3210, break to see the 3200 line.
Gold (XAU/USD) 3H Chart Analysis – Bullish Setup Toward $3,500 TCurrent Price: $3,254.26
EMA 70: $3,285.50 (Price is below EMA – cautious zone)
Bias: Bullish 📈 (if demand zone holds)
Key Zones:
🟦 Demand Zone: $3,200 – $3,260
✅ Strong buy interest expected here
⚠️ Good place to look for entry signals
🟥 Resistance Zone: $3,223.60 – $3,323.84
🔄 Price is currently testing this zone
A breakout here can lead to bullish momentum
🎯 Target Point: $3,500 – $3,529 💰
📌 Defined as "Target Point 3500"
High potential for profit-taking here
⛔ Stop Loss: $3,161.32
🚫 Placed below demand zone for risk control
❗ Important to exit if price drops here
Trade Idea 💡
📥 Buy Entry: Near or above $3,223.60
✅ Hold as long as price respects demand zone
🎯 Target: $3,500
⛔ Stop Loss: $3,161.32
⚖️ Risk:Reward ratio looks favorable!
Quick Summary:
🟢 Bullish Setup
💪 Demand zone is strong
📈 Breakout above resistance may fuel a rally
⏳ Wait for confirmation before entry!
Gold may break out of the range and rise to 3450GOLD is rising and testing the resistance of the trading range. The important prerequisite is no drop after false breakout. Accordingly, buyers are building up and a close above 3367 may give a chance for a rise
The fundamental situation is changing, Trump is imposing new duties. In addition, gold is reacting to the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. The metal continues to be a magnet for money
Scenario: A break of range resistance and consolidation above 3367 activates buying. The target of 3407 is 3444
GOLD market update: range locked / breakout pending🏆 Gold Market Mid-Term Update
📊 Technical Outlook Update
🏆 Market Overview
▪️broke above 3 000 USD
▪️3250 USD S/R cleared as well
▪️Tested 3500 USD key S/R
▪️Rejection at 3500 USD key S/R
▪️pullback in progress currently
▪️locked inside range trading
▪️3275/3365 usd active range
▪️break below 3245 - BEARS take over
▪️break above 3385 - BULLS take over
▪️Bulls targets - 3450/3550 USD
▪️Bears targets - 3050/3150 USD
⭐️Recommended strategy
▪️Wait for a breakout
▪️LONG/SHORT after breakout
🔥 Key Drivers to Watch
🌍 Geopolitics & Trade
🇺🇸🇨🇳 U.S.–China Tariffs: Escalation continues pushing inflation fears & gold demand
🇪🇺 EU–U.S. tariffs (25%) are further straining global trade
💵 Weaker USD = stronger gold sentiment
🕊 Russia–Ukraine Ceasefire Talks
🗓 May 9 (Victory Day): Symbolic date eyed for a possible ceasefire announcement
🇷🇺 Parade vs 🇺🇦 EU leaders visiting Kyiv — all eyes on peace prospects
☢️ U.S.–Iran Nuclear Deal
🗓 April 28: Talks in Rome
🇮🇷 Iran shows readiness — possible easing of Middle East tensions
XAU/USD..2h triangle chart pattern*XAU/USD (Gold vs. US Dollar) sell trade** based on the details you provided:
### **Trade Summary**
- **Action:** Sell
- **Entry Price:** 3256
- **Resistance Level:** 3270
- **Stop Loss (SL):** 3288 (320 pips above entry)
- **Take Profit Targets (TP):**
- **TP1:** 3204 (-520 pips)
- **TP2:** 3130 (-1260 pips)
### **Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR)**
- **Risk (SL to Entry):** 320 pips
- **Reward (Entry to TP2):** 1260 pips
- **RRR:** **1:3.9** (Favorable if TP2 is reached)
### **Key Considerations**
1. **Resistance at 3270** – A bounce from this level could confirm bearish momentum.
2. **Stop Loss Placement (3288)** – Protects against a breakout above resistance.
3. **Targets:**
- **TP1 (3204)** – Partial profit-taking level.
- **TP2 (3130)** – Larger downtrend target if momentum continues.
### **Trade Management Tips**
- Monitor price action near **3270**—if it breaks higher, consider early exit.
- Adjust stop loss to **breakeven** if price reaches **3200-3210** (support zone).
- Watch for **Fed policy, US Dollar strength, or geopolitical risks** that could impact gold.
Would you like additional analysis on technical indicators (RSI, MACD, etc.) to confirm the trade setup?
GOLD What Next? SELL!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for GOLD below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 3263.7
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 3249.1
Safe Stop Loss - 3271.6
About Used Indicators:
The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Gold Spot (XAU/USD) – Bullish Double Bottom BreakoutHello guys!
Yesterday we got our profit from gold!
It is a new one:
Gold has formed a clear double bottom on the 1H timeframe, accompanied by a bullish divergence—a classic signal of potential reversal. Following the breakout above neckline resistance, the price is currently in a retest phase, revisiting the breakout zone (now turned support).
🔹 Pattern: Double Bottom
🔹 Signal: Bullish Divergence
🔹 Breakout: Confirmed
🔹 Support Zone: ~$3,300–$3,305
🔹 Target: ~$3,375–$3,385
The bullish scenario remains valid as long as the price holds above the support area. A failure to hold may invalidate the setup and lead to further consolidation or decline.
📌 Watch for bullish price action near the retest zone for potential entries.
Your ULTIMATE Guide For Time Frames in Gold, Forex Trading
If you just started trading, you are probably wondering what time frames to trade. In the today's post, I will reveal the difference between mainstream time frames like daily, 4h, 1h, 15m.
Firstly, you should know that the selection of a time frame primarily depends on your goals in trading. If you are interested in swing trading strategies, of course, you should concentrate on higher time frames analysis while for scalping the main focus should be on lower time frames.
Daily time frame shows a bigger picture.
It can be applied for the analysis of a price action for the last weeks, months, and even years.
It reveals the historical key levels that can be relevant for swing traders, day traders and scalpers.
The patterns that are formed on a daily time frame may predict long-term movements.
In the picture above, you can see how the daily time frame can show the price action for the last years, months and weeks.
In contrast, hourly time frame reflects intra week & intraday perspectives.
The patterns and key levels that are spotted there, will be important for day traders and scalpers.
The setups that are spotted on an hourly time frame, will be useful for predicting the intraday moves and occasionally the moves within a trading week.
Take a look at the 2 charts above, the hourly time frame perfectly shows the market moves within a week and within a single day.
4H time frame is somewhere in between. For both swing trader and day trader, it may provide some useful confirmations.
4H t.f shows intra week and week to week perspectives.
Above, you can see how nicely 4H time frame shows the price action on EURUSD within a week and for the last several weeks.
15 minutes time frame is a scalping time frame.
The setups and levels that are spotted there can be used to predict the market moves within hours or within a trading session.
Check the charts above: 15 minutes time frame shows both the price action within a London session and the price action for the last couple of hours.
It is also critical to mention, that lower is the time frame, lower is the accuracy of the patterns and lower is the strength of key levels that are identified there. It makes higher time frame analysis more simple and reliable.
The thing is that higher is the time frame, more important it is for the market participants.
While lower time frames can help to predict short term moves, higher time frames are aimed for predicting long-term trends.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
XAUUSD: Intraday Bullish Move Up To $3400! The OANDA:XAUUSD price has shown strong bullish momentum, indicating it will likely continue to rise above $3400. However, the price is currently volatile and is likely to remain so.
Good luck and trade safely!
Thank you for your unwavering support! 😊
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No Bottom Yet: Gold’s Technical Targets Point LowerSince Monday, I’ve been saying that Gold hasn’t finished correcting, and the price action is now confirming that view. The drop continued with breaks below two key levels: the 3300 figure and the 3270 support, which was the recent low.
After some sideways action (a bit of a limbo), we finally got the clean breakdown. At the time of writing, price sits at 3248, having just bounced slightly from the 3240 support, which aligns with mid-April’s ATH.
Now comes the big question: Is Gold done correcting?
In my opinion, not yet – and here’s why:
Technical reasons for further downside:
1. The break below 3270 is significant and opens the door to deeper correction.
2. We now have two measured targets:
📉 Measured range target: ~1000 pips → puts price below 3200.
📉 First leg down: ~2500 pips → could push price closer to the 3000 zone.
Trading Plan:
The strategy remains unchanged: sell the rallies. As long as price stays below 3270-3290 zone, downside continuation is the base case.
A move towards at least 3200 looks very probable – and deeper levels can't be ruled out.
Don’t rush to call a bottom – let the market show when the correction is really done. Until then, the bias stays bearish. 🚀
P.S: Expect great volatility to remain
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
THE KOG REPORT - FOMCTHE KOG REPORT – FOMC
This is our view for FOMC, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price.
Our NFP KOG Report worked pretty well apart from it being a Friday and us closing out positions for the weekend only for the move to complete on Monday. For this FOMC we’ll share the levels and potential reaction points on the red boxes as well as the red box target levels. Due to the range, it’s best to wait for the break and also for them to move the price to where they want, then hunt the trade once price has settled.
We have the immediate support level below 3360-55 which if held can push this upside to break the recent high and that 3480-90 level again. Break of that level we have red box region 3330-20 which is where we could get a RIP but that will give us the flip with potential for the order region 3350-55 to turn into resistance unless broken. For that reason, a down move for now could only give scalps for decent captures on tap and bounces.
3320 is the line in the sand, if broken below we’ll get the long from the 3290-95 region which will come next week.
Note, these days it’s only Trump that manages to move the markets aggressively, so this FOMC is most likely already priced in. Not worth attempting the immediate levels so we’ll rather wait for the extreme levels.
RED BOXES INDI LEVELS:
Break above 3395 for 3406, 3410, 3420, 3430 and 3435 in extension of the move
Break below 3375 for 3370, 3366, 3356, 3351 and 3345 in extension of the move
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Lack of bullish momentum, gold price waits, slight decrease✍️ NOVA hello everyone, Let's comment on gold price next week from 05/05/2025 - 05/09/2025
🔥 World situation:
Gold (XAU/USD) slipped by more than 0.35% on Friday and is on track to close the week with a decline exceeding 2.5%, as easing trade tensions and upbeat US labor market data boosted investor risk appetite. This shift in sentiment encouraged profit-taking ahead of the weekend, weighing on the safe-haven asset. At last check, XAU/USD was trading around $3,226, pulling back from an intraday peak of $3,269.
Adding to the improved market mood, China’s Commerce Ministry confirmed that the US has shown a willingness to resume discussions on tariffs, while reiterating that Beijing remains open to dialogue.
🔥 Identify:
Gold price continues to adjust down, lacking momentum to increase price. around price range 3200 - 3350
🔥 Technically:
Based on the resistance and support areas of the gold price according to the H4 frame, NOVA identifies the important key areas as follows:
Resistance: $3285, $3316, $3355
Support : $3202, $3155
🔥 NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
- The winner is the one who sticks with the market the longest
XAU/USD...gold 15m time frame chart pattern..### **Gold Trade Setup (Buy Now)**
- **Entry Price**: 3280
- **Target Price**: 3432 (**+152 points potential profit**)
- **Stop Loss**: 3360 (**-80 points risk**)
### **Key Points:**
1. **Risk-Reward Ratio**:
- **1:1.9** (Reward is nearly twice the risk, which is favorable).
2. **Trade Management**:
- If price moves favorably, consider **trailing the stop loss** to lock in profits.
- Watch for **trend line breaks or resistance tests** near the target.
3. **Confirmation Needed**:
- Ensure the trend line is validated (at least **2-3 touches** for reliability).
- Check for supporting indicators (e.g., **RSI bullish divergence, moving averages**).
4. **Potential Concerns**:
- Stop loss (3360) is **above entry (3280)**, suggesting this might be a **sell-triggered stop loss** (verify if direction is **long/short**).
- If this is a **sell trade**, adjust interpretation accordingly.
### **Actionable Advice**:
✅ **Execute if**: Trend confirms bullish (higher lows, breakout).
❌ **Avoid if**: Price breaks below the trend line before entry.
Let me know if you'd like help refining the setup! 🚀
Easing market risks put pressure on GOLDOANDA:XAUUSD fell to a two-week low on Thursday (May 1), mainly due to signs of easing trade tensions and a long holiday in China, the world's largest gold consumer. Investors will be looking ahead to the US non-farm payrolls report due today (Friday), which is expected to cause major market movements.
Easing trade tensions between the US and other countries have kept investors optimistic throughout the week. In addition, easing US-China trade tensions have also added to the pressure on gold as there are no additional risks to stimulate safe-haven demand.
US President Donald Trump has decided to exempt some tariffs on the auto industry and made progress on deals with India, South Korea and Japan. On Wednesday local time, Trump said there was a great chance of reaching a trade deal with China and that there were "potential" trade deals with India, South Korea and Japan, and that he was working to reach agreements with the three countries.
The Trump administration hopes to reach preliminary trade agreements with several trading partners within weeks, U.S. Trade Representative Greer said Wednesday. U.S. Commerce Secretary Mattis Lutnick said at least one trade deal is close to being announced, several others are close to being finalized, and Trump may be waiting for an opportunity to announce them all at once.
Data released on Wednesday showed the US economy contracted in the first quarter and the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index was flat in March, turning investors' attention to the non-farm payrolls report due out today (Friday). The US non-farm payrolls report for April will be released on May 2 (8:30 a.m. ET). Expectations for the non-farm report are that traders and economists expect the report to show 133,000 new jobs in the US, average hourly earnings increased 0.3% month-on-month (up 3.9% year-on-year), and the U3 unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%.
Fed policymakers said they would keep interest rates on hold until there are clear signs that inflation is falling toward the 2% target or there is a possibility that the job market is deteriorating.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
Technically, gold remains in the best position for bullish expectations with support from the EMA21 and the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also reacting to the 50 level, which is considered the closest support in terms of momentum.
In the short term, if gold returns to trade above $3,270, it will be considered the best condition for a bullish recovery to end the broad-based correction.
However, if gold is sold below $3,228 and maintains its price action below this level, it will likely continue to decline with a subsequent target of around $3,163 in the short term.
In the day, considering the current position, gold still has conditions for a bullish outlook technically and the notable price levels will be listed as follows.
Support: $3,228 – $3,163
Resistance: $3,267 – $3,270
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3270 - 3268⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3275
→Take Profit 1 3262
↨
→Take Profit 2 3256
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3174 - 3176⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3170
→Take Profit 1 3182
↨
→Take Profit 2 3188
XAU/USD - Bearish Flag Pattern (25.04.2025)The XAU/USD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Bearish Flag Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 3232
2nd Support – 3188
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XAU/USD (Gold) Analysis 2/5/20251. XAU/USD recently recorded an all-time high (ATH) at the 3150 level.
2. Following a healthy retracement, we are now eyeing potential long opportunities near the 3100 zone.
3. The 3100 level presents a favorable risk-reward entry point, aligned with historical support.
4. Market sentiment remains bullish, supported by strong fundamentals and ongoing geopolitical tensions.
5. A breakout above the previous ATH could open the door for a continued rally toward higher resistance levels.
6. Our upside targets for this move are in the range of 3450 to 3500, offering considerable profit potential.
7. Price consolidation near 3100 indicates accumulation, reinforcing the long bias.
8. We anticipate renewed buying pressure as the market tests key psychological and technical levels.
9. Risk management will be crucial, with stops ideally placed just below the 3050 support region.
10. Overall, this setup offers a compelling long trade backed by technical structure and market momentum.
XAU/USD Market Outlook – Key Levels & Scenarios (May 2025)📊 Market Overview
Asset: XAU/USD (Gold vs. USD) – likely
Timeframe: 🕒 4H or Daily
EMAs:
🔴 50 EMA = 3,281 (short-term trend)
🔵 200 EMA = 3,179 (long-term trend)
🧱 Key Zones
🔺 Main Resistance Zone (🚫 Supply Area)
📍 ~3,320–3,400
🔍 Observation: Strong rejection zone with multiple failed attempts. 🚧 Price struggles to break and hold above here.
⚖️ Mid Support & Resistance Zone
📍 ~3,200–3,250
🧭 Current Action: Price is consolidating here. This is a key decision zone. A bounce or breakdown will likely decide the next big move. 🤔
🟦 Main Support Zone
📍 ~2,980–3,030
🛑 Observation: Major demand zone. If price falls here, it might attract buyers 👥 for a potential rebound.
📉 EMA Analysis
🔴 50 EMA is above 🔵 200 EMA → Trend still technically bullish ✅
🟡 BUT: Price is currently below 50 EMA, showing short-term weakness ⚠️
⚡️ 200 EMA is nearby (~3,179): Acting as dynamic support — a critical bounce zone! 🛡️
🔮 Scenarios
🐂 Bullish Path
✅ If price bounces from 3,200 support zone and reclaims 🔴 50 EMA:
🎯 Target: Retest of 3,320–3,400 🔺 zone
📈 Confirmation: Strong candle closing above 3,281 🔴 EMA
🐻 Bearish Path
🚨 If price breaks below 3,200 & 200 EMA:
🕳️ Expect drop towards 2,980–3,030 🟦 zone
📉 Confirmation: Candle closes below 3,179 with weak retest
✅ Conclusion
📍 Key Level to Watch: 3,200
⚖️ Market Sentiment: Neutral → Bearish bias unless price reclaims 50 EMA
🔒 Risk Tip: Avoid longs until price confirms bullish structure again 🔐