Buying every dip on Gold / Fed sessionTechnical analysis: Wednesday’s session Inverted Hammer practically took Gold nowhere as Hourly 1 chart remained ranged within Higher High’s Upper and Lower zone, closing out last and this week on an expected positive note. The Monthly (#1M) candle remains on decent gains (# +11.57%) and the last two sessions on the second Highest Volume throughout April - May (this is translated to Gold’s cyclical behavior which I spotted lately when #2-High Volumed sessions are delivered, strong move follows). Despite the Higher High’s, it is clear that since the #3,400.80 local High’s, Gold undergoes a consolidation phase with equal demand and supply, which according to previous models is an Resistance zone preparation for the next leg Lower or Higher regarding Weekly chart (#1W). I remain idle until Fed announcement while Buying every dip last #2-session horizon.
GOLD trade ideas
THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG:
The range continues! We've been playing this range now for nearly a trading week and although it's giving us the scalps, it's not making the move that we want at the moment. Day before yesterday, we said we would stick with the plan, and it's worked again, however, this time, if we approach that key level 3335, we're not going to suggest attempting that short again.
Having said the above, even though it's frustrating, we're going to stick with the plan at the moment. Most of our bearish targets are completing together with KOG's bias of the day, so lets see if we can break below that 3300 level and hold! As it stands, nothing to lose unless we get taken at BE again.
Circled are the key levels to look out for, bias still stands for now. NFP around the corner, it's going to make it even more of a whipsaw.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Gold awaits Fed / Buy every dipTechnical analysis: Wednesday’s session Inverted Hammer practically took Gold nowhere as Hourly 1 chart remained ranged within Higher High’s Upper and Lower zone, closing out last and this week on an expected positive note. The Monthly (#1M) candle remains on decent gains (# +11.57%) and the last two sessions on the second Highest Volume throughout April - May (this is translated to Gold’s cyclical behavior which I spotted lately when #2-High Volumed sessions are delivered, strong move follows). Despite the Higher High’s, it is clear that since the #3,400.80 local High’s, Gold undergoes a consolidation phase with equal demand and supply, which according to previous models is an Resistance zone preparation for the next leg Lower or Higher regarding Weekly chart (#1W). I remain idle until Fed announcement while Buying every dip last #2-session horizon.
Gold – Bulls in Control, but Watch Key Support Gold remains extremely volatile. After finding support around 3200 at the beginning of the month, the price surged nearly 2500 pips within just three trading days, reaching above 3400.
Currently, the price has pulled back and has tested the 3360 zone over night– a former resistance turned support.
Two Scenarios to Watch:
- Bullish Case: If 3360 holds, bulls could push for a retest of the 3500 zone.
- Bearish Case: A clear break below 3360 would confirm a lower high, potentially opening the door for a deeper correction back to 3270.
For now, I’m on the sidelines, waiting for more clarity around this critical support.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
sell zone is hereThe price has been in the sell zone. I am using the modified Fiboretracement. The price has shown strength to go down. Now the price is performing a pullback. If the price rises to the cutloss level, then we will cutloss. We have done the analysis, the rest we will wait to see what will happen.
Next move (XAUUSD)As of May 2, 2025, gold (XAU/USD) has rebounded from a two-week low, trading around $3,256 per ounce, recovering approximately 0.5% from the previous session’s decline. This uptick follows a nearly 2% drop earlier in the week, marking the steepest weekly loss since late February . 
Key Factors Influencing Gold’s Next Move
1. Upcoming U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report
Investor attention is focused on the forthcoming U.S. non-farm payrolls report, expected to show a gain of 130,000 jobs in April, down from March’s 228,000. This data could influence the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook, affecting gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset . 
2. Central Bank Policies and Economic Indicators
Goldman Sachs forecasts that gold prices could surpass $3,700 and even reach $4,800 by mid-2026, driven by recession concerns and central bank policies . Additionally, a recent Reuters poll predicts that the average annual gold price will exceed $3,000 per troy ounce in 2025, marking the first time such a forecast has been made .  
3. Geopolitical Tensions and Market Volatility
Ongoing geopolitical uncertainties continue to bolster gold’s status as a safe-haven asset. Investor demand remains strong amid persistent global tensions, despite easing trade disputes between the U.S. and China .  
Technical Outlook
Technically, gold’s recent recovery suggests potential for further gains. Key resistance levels to watch include $3,300 and $3,400. Support is seen around $3,200, with a break below this level possibly leading to a pullback toward $3,100. 
Conclusion
Gold’s outlook remains positive, supported by strong investor demand, favorable economic indicators, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. While short-term fluctuations are possible, the medium to long-term trend appears bullish, with potential for gold to reach new record highs in the coming months. 
XAUUSD NFP spike coming!Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
XAU/USD Analysis: Chart Indicates Elevated VolatilityXAU/USD Analysis: Chart Indicates Elevated Volatility
The XAU/USD chart shows that the ATR (Average True Range) indicator has reached its highest level in several weeks, signalling increased market volatility.
In addition, trading activity is being fuelled by heightened geopolitical tensions, now including an escalation of the conflict between India and Pakistan.
The price action analysis of the precious metal also provides valuable insight, highlighting the ongoing battle between supply and demand.
Technical Analysis of the XAU/USD Chart
On 23 April, we noted a sharp shift in sentiment after the price of XAU/USD peaked around $3,500.
Gold price fluctuations today suggest continued bearish pressure above $3,400, leading to a downward reversal at peak B, which sits below the previous high at A.
This forms the basis for outlining a descending channel and suggests that bears may attempt to keep the price within its boundaries. On the other hand, the $3,333 level was decisively broken by a wave of buying (shown with a blue arrow), and a bullish “cup and handle” pattern is emerging in the background — it is possible that, as part of the May rally, bulls may try to surpass peak B.
Whatever the outcome, elevated volatility appears likely to persist — especially with the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision due today at 21:00 GMT+3, followed by Jerome Powell’s press conference at 21:30.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Market Analysis: Gold Dips FurtherMarket Analysis: Gold Dips Further
Gold price started a fresh decline below $3,300.
Important Takeaways for Gold Price Analysis Today
- Gold price climbed higher towards the $3,350 zone before there was a sharp decline against the US Dollar.
- A key bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $3,270 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
Gold Price Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price climbed above the $3,250 resistance. The price even spiked above $3,300 before the bears appeared.
A high was formed near $3,352 before there was a fresh decline. There was a move below the $3,300 support level. The bears even pushed the price below the $3,250 support and the 50-hour simple moving average.
It tested the $3,200 zone. A low has formed near $3,203 and the price is now showing bearish signs. There was a minor recovery wave above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $3,352 swing high to the $3,203 low.
However, the bears are active below $3,270. Immediate resistance is near $3,270. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $3,270.
The next major resistance is near the $3,295 zone and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $3,352 swing high to the $3,203 low. The main resistance could be $3,352, above which the price could test the $3,400 resistance. The next major resistance is $3,500.
An upside break above the $3,500 resistance could send Gold price toward $3,550. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $3,620 level.
Initial support on the downside is near the $3,240 level. The first major support is near the $3,225 level. If there is a downside break below the $3,225 support, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop toward the $3,205 support.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
The bull market ends and gold continues to fallGold is currently trading around $3310, facing strong resistance near the )$3320–$3330) zone after a sharp upward move. I am supporting a SELL bias, anticipating a potential rejection from resistance and a move to the downside.
📈Key Resistance:$3330 A key level where I expect sellers to step in.
📈Major Resistance Zone: $3330–$3340 – If broken, further upside is possible, but this zone remains a strong barrier for now.
📉Bearish Targets:
📉Target 1: $3290 Initial support and short-term profit zone.
📉Target 2: $3264 Deeper pullback level.
📉Target 3: $3242 Final target before reaching major demand.
📉Support Area: $3220 $3210
A high-probability demand zone where buyers may defend the level and sellers could take profit.
📊Outlook: I remain bearish as long as price holds below $3330. A clear rejection from this area would strengthen the bearish case. A break above $3340 would invalidate the setup and shift focus to the bullish side.
I know that many people are losing their accounts or opinions due to the sudden rise and fall of their accounts. If you are a novice or you need some free professional advice, please contact me. I hope to help you.
Latest gold operation analysisFrom the daily level, the current price resistance is in the 3310 area, which is the key watershed of the band trend. If the price is below this position, the subsequent band will be shorted. At the same time, for the short-term four-hour price resistance, it is in the 3253 range. The gains and losses of this position determine the key to the short-term trend. The price will consolidate up and down at this position in the short term. Pay attention to the support of this position and further test the daily resistance area before looking at the pressure.
Has Gold's Rally Ended?In 2025, gold experienced an unprecedented surge, marking its best quarterly performance in history with gains exceeding 17% in Q1. The second quarter of 2025 began with further gains, reaching a new all-time high at $3,500.110 per ounce.
Several economic and political factors contributed to the rise in global demand for gold as a safe haven asset amid fears of a potential economic recession, inflation, and a looming trade war.
The recent pullback in gold prices has been somewhat driven by optimistic expectations regarding U.S.-China negotiations and the U.S. president's decision to reduce some tariffs, including those on automobiles.
Technical Outlook for Gold:
The latest declines in gold prices have brought some bearish signals, suggesting a shift from an uptrend to a downtrend. After rising approximately 14%, gold pulled back and broke below its most recent higher low, closing a daily candle below the $3,260.65 level, an indication of a potential trend reversal from bullish to bearish.
However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has not yet broken below the 50 mark, despite the recent price drop, which maintains the possibility for a rebound and suggests that the market hasn't entered full bearish momentum.
The $3,436.042 level serves as a key resistance area where selling pressure may emerge, potentially pushing prices down to target $3,265.100 as the first support level.
On the other hand, if the price breaks above $3,500.110 and posts a daily close above it, the bearish scenario would be invalidated.
From a fundamental perspective, gold’s continued decline is closely tied to developments in U.S.-China trade talks. Any positive signs of reaching an agreement or further tariff reductions could weigh negatively on gold prices.
Quick setup on XAUUSD current scenario> The chart shows a consolidation area near 3310–3330, which is a key resistance zone.
> Price recently made a sharp bullish move into that resistance, now testing the zone.
> Several historical rejections (red arrows) align with this level, reinforcing it as a decision point.
:Bullish Scenario (Buy Plan):
Entry Trigger:
If 3329–3330 is broken with confirmation (i.e., retest or strong close above).
Targets:
TP1: 3350
TP2: 3400
Note:
Confirmation might be a retest of 3322, labeled as "buy trap price", which could serve as new support.
Bearish Scenario (Sell Plan):
✅ Entry Trigger:
Wait for a clean break below 3310, which has held as a support.
🎯 Targets:
TP1: 3272–3270
TP2: 3230
Final Target: 3200
🔹 Bearish Flow:
The projected price path is a stair-step decline, suggesting pullbacks before continuation downward.
Summary & Trade Logic:
Bias Condition Entry Level Take Profits
Bullish Break & hold above 3330 Above 3330 (ideally 3329–3330) 3350, 3400
Bearish Break below 3310 Below 3310 3272–70, 3230, 3200
Gold Macro Elliott Wave Analysis – Is Cycle Wave ⑤ Already Done?This analysis presents a long-term Elliott Wave interpretation of gold from the 1970s to the present, focusing on the macro cycle structure.
We are currently facing a major inflection point, where two valid scenarios emerge:
Scenario 1 – Cycle Wave ⑤ Completed:
A clear 5-wave impulse from the 2015 low is visible, with Wave (5) extending to the 2.618 extension of Wave (1). This aligns well with typical Fibonacci proportions.
If this is correct, a multi-year correction may now begin, marking the end of the long-term bullish cycle.
Scenario 2 – Still in a Running Flat:
Alternatively, the entire structure since 2011 may still be part of a Running Flat correction:
Wave A: 2011–2015
Wave B: 2015–2024 (currently near 2.0 × A, which is extreme but still technically possible)
Wave C: Yet to come (expected to be shallow and brief if this scenario holds)
Key Decision Point:
If Wave C drops below the low of Wave A, the Running Flat scenario fails — and we may be seeing the start of a larger degree correction.
On the other hand, if price continues higher and breaks the assumed Wave (5) top, it may indicate the impulsive move is still in progress and the current count must be re-evaluated.
Let me know your thoughts — which scenario do you favor?
Is this the end of a decades-long cycle? Or are we still preparing for the final rally?
#Gold #XAUUSD #ElliottWave #WaveAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis
#MacroTrends #Commodities #Wave5 #RunningFlat #TradingView
#CycleAnalysis #PriceAction #MarketStructure #GoldForecast
“Gold Poised for a Big Move Ahead of NFP – Reversal or BreakdownGold (XAU/USD) is approaching a major decision zone just before the highly anticipated NFP release. Price is reacting from a strong demand area (3,240–3,200), hinting at potential upside if momentum builds. A break above the descending trendline could fuel a rally toward 3,320 and 3,480.
However, a negative reaction to NFP might push gold down to test the deeper 3,168–3,134 support zone before bouncing.
This setup aligns perfectly with high-impact news – Follow for live updates and smart trade ideas during NFP!
GOLD SELL SETUP
To determine the reason behind selling gold at $3263:$3264, let's examine current market conditions and possible factors influencing this decision.
*Possible Reasons:*
- *Resistance Level*: $3263:$3264 might be acting as a resistance level, where gold prices face selling pressure or struggle to break through. This level could be influenced by historical price movements or technical indicators.
- *Profit-Taking*: Investors might be selling gold at this price range to secure profits, especially after recent gains. This decision could be driven by market volatility or shifts in sentiment.
- *Market Sentiment*: Changes in market sentiment, driven by news or economic data, can impact gold prices. If sentiment is bearish, traders might be more inclined to sell at $3263:$3264.
bullish reject support 4H?Gold is currently sitting right at a major 4H demand zone (2627–2611), which also aligns with the third touch of a descending channel support — a classic potential reversal signal. Bulls may look for confirmation here, but if this zone fails, we could head lower toward the next demand zone