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SDX1! trade ideas

Look To Sell USD and Buy EUR, GBP, NZD and AUD!This is the FOREX outlook for the week of May 5 - 9th. In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets: USD Index EUR GBP AUD NZD CAD CHF JPY USD Index has tapped the W -FVG. I expect it to sweep the last week's high before heading down. Short term strength for longer term weakness. Look to buy xxxUSD pairs. Sell USDxxx pairs. Wait for valid setups. FOMC is Wednesday! Don't just jump into trades without confirming the bias first! Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
ICEUS:DX1!
by RT_Money
DXY Struggles at Mid-Cycle: Capital Flow Rotation Underway The US Dollar Index (DXY) is sitting at a generational pivot zone around the 100 level, a midpoint in its 10-year price cycle. It has failed to reclaim this level decisively, and macro headwinds continue to build: The re-escalation of tariff wars by the US administration, alienating global partners Increasing capital outflows to the Yen, Gold, and emerging crypto ETFs The risk of a flattening or inverted yield curve dragging confidence in USD-denominated debt A break below 98.52 could accelerate the move toward 96.20, 94.76, and 92.44, historically associated with market stress and recessionary periods. As the dollar's reputation as the world's safe haven erodes, Bitcoin—particularly in its regulated, ETF-wrapped form—is gaining favour as a neutral store of value.
ICEUS:DX1!
by Rotuma
DXY The Fake Dance- One of the most important barometers for global currencies and markets in the world. - Most of the time DXY is a well used machine to supress markets (forex, stocks, cryptos, etc..) - When they don't start the printing machine, DXY keeps is strength. - When they start to print DXY starts to dip and markets boom up. - it's really basic and based on "BRRR Machine". - i had a hard time to decrypt this fake peace of resilience. - actually there's none visible divergences on the 1M or 3M Timeframes. - So i decided to push my analysis to 6M Timeframe and noticed few things : - You can notice that from 2008 ( Post crises ), DXY was in a perma bullish trend. - So now check MACD and will notice this fake move on January 2021 ( in graph the red ? ) - MACD was about to cross down, columns smaller and smaller, then a Pump from nowhere lol. - i rarely saw that in my trading life on a 6M Timeframe. - So to understand more this trend, i used ADX (Average Directional Index) - ADX is used to determine when the price is trending strongly. - In many cases, it is the ultimate trend indicator. - So if you look well ADX columns, you will notice that a strong divergence is on the way. - First check the Yellow Doted Line in July 2022 when DXY reached 115ish and look the size of the green columns. - Now check today (red doted Line), and look again the ADX green columns is higher, but DXY diped to 105ish. - So like always, i can be wrong, but i bet on a fast DXY dip soon or later. - it's possible to fake pumps, but it's harder to fake traders. Happy Tr4Ding !
ICEUS:DX1!Short
by thecryer
5
US Dollar at Breaking Point: China Tariff Clash Risks Collapse Farmers, Boeing, and tech sectors brace for severe damage as USD threatens to break critical 10-year support amid escalating trade tensions. Technical Breakdown: Crucial USD Zone Under Threat The US Dollar Index (DXY) currently sits precariously within a critical 10-year support and resistance zone between 100 and 98. Historically, this key price area has repeatedly served as a midpoint equilibrium, dictating significant directional shifts. A decisive breach below this support could unleash substantial downward momentum, targeting deeper psychological and technical levels at 95 or potentially 92. Examining a 10-year price cycle reveals a consistent pattern: whenever the USD has broken below this midpoint zone, it has lingered and struggled to regain upward traction. Currently, the short-term reprieve provided by the temporary 90-day tariff halt may offer brief support—but the underlying macroeconomic stress signals growing vulnerability. Fundamental Factors: Tariff War's Long-Term Damage While the US administration's aggressive tariff strategy against China was intended to protect American industries, its effects are increasingly backfiring—posing significant long-term risks to the US dollar and economy. Agriculture: US farmers are already suffering substantial losses. China, a critical export destination for American meat, grain, and soybeans, has drastically reduced purchases in retaliation. The direct result is declining farm revenues, increased inventory buildup, and weakening regional economies dependent on agricultural exports. Aviation (Boeing): One of America's largest manufacturing exporters, Boeing has become a recent casualty. Tariff escalations and strained diplomatic relations have severely affected aircraft sales to China—its biggest overseas market. With Boeing's market dominance already challenged by competitors like Airbus, prolonged tariffs could have dire financial implications, further pressuring USD sentiment. Technology and Semiconductor Industries: The US tech sector, including semiconductor giants such as Intel, Nvidia, Qualcomm, and Apple, heavily relies on Chinese manufacturing and consumption markets. Tariffs imposed on Chinese components and retaliatory measures have led to significant supply chain disruptions, increased production costs, and lower profit margins. Extended trade tensions risk permanently damaging these companies' competitiveness and earnings potential. Retail and Consumer Goods: American retailers, from Walmart to Amazon, are also exposed to China's tariff retaliation. Rising import costs translate directly into higher consumer prices, diminished purchasing power, and potential slowdowns in consumer spending—key pillars underpinning US economic growth and, by extension, dollar strength. Why the Dollar Could Sink Further As these vital sectors face prolonged pressure, broader economic fundamentals weaken. Reduced export revenues, rising domestic costs, and declining consumer confidence collectively undermine investor sentiment toward the US dollar. Moreover, sustained trade tensions might force the Federal Reserve into more accommodative monetary policies, potentially leading to rate cuts—a scenario traditionally bearish for the USD. If the current trajectory persists, the US dollar could face intensified selling pressure, propelling it towards critical psychological and historical support levels at 95, with an even deeper potential retreat toward 92. Bottom Line The dollar now stands at a pivotal crossroads. With crucial sectors like agriculture, aviation, technology, and retail deeply vulnerable to prolonged US-China trade conflict, a fall below the critical 10-year support at 98 would signal a significant bearish shift. Investors and policymakers alike must brace for volatility as the implications of this trade war continue to unfold.
ICEUS:DX1!
by Rotuma
Institutions Pull Back Their Funds From The FedDisclaimer : Geopolitical factors are currently a major concern. This data analysis aims to serve as a fundamental basis derived directly from official sources to assess the USD exchange rate and the likelihood of future monetary policies under normal economic conditions, excluding geopolitical factors that create sentiment different from the actual economic conditions. H.4.1 Report FRED CME FedWatch Fed Balance Sheet: Securities Held Outright: Increased by $38 million. Reverse Repo (RRP): Significantly decreased by $51.875 million in the latest period. Reserve Balances: Increased by $42.962 million. TGA Data Current balance: $809,154 million. Change this week: Decreased by $8,799 million. Change from last year: Decreased by $22,726 million significantly. RRP A significant decrease in the last 3 days, from $99.65 billion on February 10 to $67.82 billion on February 13, with a total decrease of -$31.83 billion. M2 Money Supply Data: M2 value as of December 2024: $21,533.8 billion. Change from the previous month (Nov 2024): +$85.5 billion. Change from last year (Dec 2023): +$808.4 billion. Fed Interest Rate Decision: Main decision: The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate in the range of 4.25% - 4.50%. Bank Reserve Interest Rate: Remains at 4.4%. Primary Credit Rate: Remains at 4.5%. The Federal Reserve will continue its Quantitative Tightening (QT) policy by continuing to reduce holdings of Treasury securities and MBS. Market Expectations from CME FedWatch Tool: Current target rate: 425-450 bps (4.25% - 4.50%). Probability for an interest rate of 400-425 bps: 2.5%. Probability for an interest rate of 425-450 bps: 97.5%. Based on this analysis The Federal Reserve has a policy to maintain interest rates stable in the range of 4.25% - 4.50%. Despite the significant decrease in Reverse Repo and the decrease in TGA, as well as the significant increase in M2 Money Supply, this policy is maintained to support economic stability and reduce excess liquidity in the market. The high probability (97.5%) of the market to maintain or increase the interest rate also reflects strong expectations for a conservative monetary policy by the Federal Reserve in the short term. Impact on USD Overall Based on the analysis of data from the Fed Balance Sheet, TGA, RRP, M2 Money Supply, and interest rate expectations, USD is likely to remain stable to strengthen in the short term, especially due to the tight monetary policy (Quantitative Tightening/QT) and the high probability of interest rates remaining in the 4.25%-4.50% range. Components RRP decreased significantly by -$31.83B in 3 days, liquidity increased, USD may weaken A decrease in RRP means banks and financial institutions are withdrawing their funds from The Fed and are likely to move into other assets. This increases liquidity in the market, which may weaken the USD due to more dollars circulating, potentially lowering the exchange rate. M2 Money Supply increased by +$808.4B YoY, liquidity increased, USD may weaken A significant increase in M2 indicates more money circulating in the economy, which could pressure the purchasing power of the USD. If this growth continues, it resembles a loosening of monetary policy, which could weaken the USD in the long term. The Fed remains with QT & does not lower interest rates, monetary contraction, USD may strengthen The QT policy and no interest rate cuts indicate that the Fed still wants to control inflation and maintain tight monetary policy. This could attract investors to USD-based assets (Treasury Yields), keeping the USD strong compared to other currencies. TGA decreased by -$8.8B weekly, -$22.7B YoY, liquidity increased, USD may weaken A decrease in TGA balance indicates that the government is withdrawing funds for spending. This means more dollars entering the economy, which could add pressure to weaken the USD in the short term. You can prepare a trading strategy based on the following scenarios: Bullish USD if scenario: The Fed maintains QT, does not cut interest rates, and investors continue buying USD-based assets. Neutral USD if scenario: The Fed maintains interest rates, but RRP & M2 Money Supply continue to rise. Bearish USD if scenario: RRP continues to decrease drastically, M2 increases significantly, and the Fed starts considering interest rate cuts. Short Term (1-3 months): USD is likely to remain strong due to tight monetary policy, but if liquidity continues to increase from RRP and M2, weakening could occur in the next quarter. Long Term (6-12 months): If M2 continues to rise and the Fed changes its policy towards interest rate cuts, USD will gradually weaken. Focus on market reactions to liquidity data such as RRP and M2. If RRP drops drastically & M2 rises, USD weakens. If the Fed maintains QT & high interest rates, USD remains stable. Pay attention to the next FOMC Meeting & liquidity data (M2 & RRP) for further USD trend confirmation. Important Note: Treat the above analysis as a fundamental basis in making your trading decisions. It is suitable for swing traders, but for the short term, it is important to consider geopolitical factors. ICEUS:DXY ICEUS:DX1!
ICEUS:DX1!Short
by CipherOracle
4 Scenarios for Anticipating The Fed's PolicyBased on prevailing economic conditions and financial pressures Scenario #1 | The Fed’s Policy and Its Implications High Inflation Persists & Bank Liquidity Declines Conditions: Bank Credit grows slowly, while Deposits grow at a slower pace than Borrowings. Cash Assets decline significantly, indicating a reduction in liquidity within the banking system. Interbank lending rates rise, tightening funding among banks. Inflation remains high, but economic growth slows. Possible Fed Policy Responses: Maintain high interest rates or increase further to curb inflation. Reduce bond holdings through Quantitative Tightening (QT) to absorb liquidity from the financial system. Open emergency lending facilities for banks to prevent panic in financial markets. Impacts: USD may strengthen as higher interest rates make dollar-denominated assets more attractive to global investors. Increased pressure on banks, especially those heavily reliant on short-term funding. Stock markets may experience a correction, particularly in interest rate-sensitive sectors such as technology and real estate. Scenario #2 | Recession Starts to Surface & Credit Tightens Conditions: Bank Credit stagnates or turns negative, indicating that banks are restricting credit due to concerns about default risks. Deposits stagnate, as investors prefer alternative assets such as bonds or gold. Stock markets begin showing bearish pressure due to economic uncertainty. Possible Fed Policy Responses: Gradually lower interest rates to stimulate borrowing and investment. End Quantitative Tightening (QT) and restart Quantitative Easing (QE) to inject liquidity into the markets. Adjust bank reserve requirements to allow more flexibility in lending. Impacts: USD may weaken as lower interest rates reduce the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets. U.S. government bonds will become more attractive, causing bond yields to decline further. Stock prices may rise, particularly in sectors that benefit from lower interest rates, such as technology and real estate. Scenario #3 | Liquidity Crisis in the Banking System Conditions: Sharp declines in Cash Assets, causing some banks to struggle to meet short-term obligations. Deposits exit the banking system, as public confidence in banks decreases. Federal Funds Rate spikes, making interbank borrowing more difficult. Possible Fed Policy Responses: Provide emergency lending facilities for banks facing liquidity shortages, as seen during the 2008 and 2023 financial crises. Lower interest rates in an emergency move if liquidity pressures worsen to maintain financial stability. Collaborate with the FDIC to guarantee deposits and prevent bank runs. Impacts: Financial markets may experience high volatility, with potential panic selling in banking stocks. Investors will flock to safe-haven assets such as gold and U.S. government bonds, causing their prices to surge. Confidence in the USD may temporarily weaken, especially if the Fed injects large amounts of liquidity into the system. Scenario #4 | Soft Landing - Stable Economy & Fed Policy Adjustments Conditions: Inflation is under control, and the economy continues to grow positively. Bank Credit grows steadily, and bank liquidity remains adequate. Stock markets remain calm, with no signs of panic in financial markets. Possible Fed Policy Responses: Keep interest rates stable for an extended period, with no drastic changes. End Quantitative Tightening (QT), but avoid immediately restarting QE. Collaborate with financial regulators to maintain banking system stability without major interventions. Impacts: USD remains stable, as no major monetary policy changes occur. Lending rates remain in a moderate range, supporting investment and consumption growth. Stock markets may gradually recover, particularly in sectors benefiting from stable monetary policies. Anticipating The Fed’s Policy! If liquidity declines and inflation remains high → The Fed is likely to maintain high interest rates & tighten monetary policy. If a recession starts to emerge → The Fed may lower interest rates & ease monetary policy to support credit and investment. If a liquidity crisis occurs → The Fed may bail out banks, lower interest rates, and stabilize the financial system. If the economy remains stable → The Fed may hold interest rates & make only minor adjustments. Recommendations: Monitor The Fed’s statements and key economic data (CPI, PCE, NFP, GDP) to anticipate upcoming policy changes. Analyze market reactions to monetary policy to identify trends in stocks, bonds, and USD. Use bank liquidity and Borrowings data to assess potential liquidity constraints in the banking system. If you have additional insights or different perspectives, I’d love to discuss them in the comments! ICEUS:DX1! ICEUS:DXY CBOE:CBOE NASDAQ:CME TVC:US10Y
ICEUS:DX1!
by CipherOracle