DXY : This Up Wave Won’t Last Long!The U.S. Dollar Index has made a corrective push up, but momentum looks weak. Structure suggests this “up wave” could soon fade, paving the way for another bearish move. Watch closely a potential reversal could be near!
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Trade ideas
DXY FRGNT Weekly Forecast -Q4 | W46 | Y25 |📅 Q4 | W46 | Y25 |
📊 DXY FRGNT Weekly Forecast
🔍 Analysis Approach:
I’m applying Smart Money Concepts, focusing on:
Identifying Points of Interest on the Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️
Using those POIs to define a clear trading range 📐
Refining those zones on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎
Waiting for a Break of Structure (BoS) for confirmation ✅
This method allows me to stay precise, disciplined, and aligned with the market narrative, rather than chasing price.
💡 My Motto:
"Capital management, discipline, and consistency in your trading edge."
A positive risk-to-reward ratio, paired with a high win rate, is the backbone of any solid trading plan 📈🔐
⚠️ Losses?
They’re part of the mathematical game of trading 🎲
They don’t define you — they’re necessary, they happen, and we move forward 📊➡️
🙏 I appreciate you taking the time to review my Daily Forecast.
Stay sharp, stay consistent, and protect your capital
— FRNGT 🚀
TVC:DXY
DXY is on an upward path, albeit with some hesitation.DXY is attempting to move away from the bottom of the channel and target higher levels. If the 101.14 level is broken, we can expect the median line of the advancing channel to be reached in higher timeframes. However, it is important to note that the release of economic data has been halted due to the government shutdown, which must be taken into consideration. Additionally, the FOMC’s decision to either lower or maintain Funds Rate is another key factor influencing this situation.
DXY Bear Cycleif Trump's drill baby drill works and inflation is controlled, then the fed can continue its rate cutting and lead us this scenario..
Yield differentials between USD and other currencies (EUR, JPY, EM FX) shrink.
Global investors rotate out of USD assets into higher-beta risk assets.
then, Stocks 10x to the moon!
DXY (DOLLAR INDEX) outlook for this weekDXY Weekly Outlook
Looking at the dollar this week, it’s aligning nicely with my setups on EU and GU. I’m watching to see if price will mitigate the 8hr supply zone, which fits perfectly with my plan to buy EU and GU from their demand zones — since a move down in the dollar typically means those pairs will push higher.
Alternatively, if the dollar bounces from demand and continues up, then I’ll be looking for sell opportunities on EU and GU instead.
Overall, DXY still looks bullish long term, and I believe this current downside move is just a temporary bearish correction before continuing higher.
$DXY eye a 5 point move. RISK OFF.The dollar index is reversing course.
And I believe highly likely to trigger this complex inverse head and shoulder's.
A swift move to the 105 region
lines up with a expected downside move in #BTC
A corrective move in the #PreciousMetals
and further profit taking on the #AI trade.
I believe this all could play by Xmas.
So the odds of a #SantaRally are slim given current price action that we are seeing across the board.
DXY Weekly OutlookOn the weekly chart, the DXY has reached the global point B that we marked five weeks ago. This move defined the direction for all dollar-related pairs over the past month and a half. Now it’s time to reassess the chart and outline the key mid-term scenarios.
Plan A:
The key level provides enough volume to trigger a deeper correction. The price bounces from one of the support zones and then continues the main trend. For now, there are no strong arguments on the chart to confirm a trend reversal — the structure remains bullish.
Plan B:
The price reacts to the nearest support area and continues moving upward without a deep correction. This scenario becomes valid only if we see renewed momentum and strong buy-side pressure.
We’re at an important turning point. Watch how the price reacts around point B — this will determine the next phase for the dollar.
dxy 4h🔹 Overall Outlook and Potential Price Movements
In the charts above, we have outlined the overall outlook and possible price movement paths.
As shown, each analysis highlights a key support or resistance zone near the current market price. The market’s reaction to these zones — whether a breakout or rejection — will likely determine the next direction of the price toward the specified levels.
⚠️ Important Note:
The purpose of these trading perspectives is to identify key upcoming price levels and assess potential market reactions. The provided analyses are not trading signals in any way.
✅ Recommendation for Use:
To make effective use of these analyses, it is advised to manually draw the marked zones on your chart. Then, on the 15-minute time frame, monitor the candlestick behavior and look for valid entry triggers before making any trading decisions.
DXY LONG ENTRY IDEA I am waiting for the price to drop to the previous bullish 4-Hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) buy-side imbalance sell-side inefficiency (BISI) bullish order block and 99.200 level.
If the price rejects those levels, I will look at my entry model from the 15-minute chart.
My STOP LOSS will be 99.00, and my 1st take profit will be 100.500, and my second TP will be 102.00 level.
World Trade Impacts on Market1. Introduction: The Global Nature of Trade
In today’s interconnected world, no country operates in isolation. Nations depend on each other for raw materials, technology, energy, and consumer goods. This interconnectedness, facilitated by globalization, free trade agreements, and technological advancements, has turned world trade into the backbone of global economic growth. The effects of trade ripple through various markets — financial, commodity, labor, and even digital.
Trade flows determine the direction of capital, affect inflation rates, and shape investment opportunities. A disruption in one part of the world, such as a supply chain bottleneck in Asia or a political crisis in the Middle East, can influence prices and investor sentiment worldwide.
2. Trade and Economic Growth
One of the most significant impacts of world trade on markets is its role in driving economic growth. Open economies that engage actively in trade tend to grow faster than closed economies. When countries export goods and services, they earn foreign exchange, which strengthens their currency reserves and supports domestic investment. Importing advanced technologies and machinery enhances productivity and competitiveness.
For example, China’s rapid rise to become the world’s second-largest economy is largely due to its trade-oriented policies. Similarly, export-driven economies such as Germany, Japan, and South Korea have thrived by focusing on global markets. Growth in trade often translates to rising corporate profits, which boosts stock markets and attracts foreign investors.
3. Impact on Stock Markets
Stock markets are highly sensitive to international trade trends. When global trade expands, companies involved in exports, logistics, and manufacturing often see increased revenues. Investors respond positively, pushing stock prices higher. Conversely, trade slowdowns, tariffs, or geopolitical tensions can lead to stock market volatility.
For instance, during the U.S.-China trade war (2018–2019), uncertainty over tariffs led to significant declines in global equity markets. Export-heavy industries such as automobiles, semiconductors, and agriculture experienced sharp losses due to disrupted trade flows. Conversely, when trade relations improve, optimism returns to the markets, leading to rallies and renewed investor confidence.
Trade also impacts sectoral performance — for example, commodity-exporting companies benefit from high global demand, while domestic-focused sectors might remain unaffected. Therefore, investors closely monitor trade data, global supply chains, and export-import statistics to predict market trends.
4. Impact on Currency Markets
World trade has a direct connection to foreign exchange (Forex) markets. When a country exports more than it imports, it experiences higher demand for its currency, strengthening its exchange rate. Conversely, trade deficits (more imports than exports) can weaken a currency.
For example, if India exports software services worth billions of dollars, foreign clients need Indian rupees to pay for these services, leading to a stronger INR. However, if India imports large amounts of crude oil, it must pay in U.S. dollars, increasing demand for USD and weakening the rupee.
Global trade imbalances also influence monetary policies. Central banks may intervene to stabilize their currencies when trade-related pressures become too strong. Thus, traders and investors watch trade balances, export data, and global demand indicators closely to anticipate currency movements.
5. Impact on Commodity Markets
Commodities such as oil, gold, steel, and agricultural products are the foundation of world trade. International demand and supply determine their prices. A surge in global trade usually increases the demand for raw materials, leading to higher commodity prices. Conversely, trade disruptions or global recessions reduce demand, causing price declines.
For example:
Crude oil prices fluctuate based on global trade volumes, shipping activity, and industrial production.
Gold prices often rise during trade conflicts or economic uncertainty, as investors seek safe-haven assets.
Agricultural commodities depend heavily on trade agreements and weather patterns in major exporting nations.
Hence, world trade patterns influence inflation, production costs, and ultimately, consumer prices across markets.
6. Employment and Labor Market Impacts
World trade also affects job creation and wage levels. Export industries often generate large-scale employment, especially in developing countries. However, increased competition from imports can lead to job losses in domestic industries that cannot compete globally.
For instance, India’s textile and IT sectors have benefited significantly from global trade, creating millions of jobs. On the other hand, industries exposed to cheaper imports (like steel or electronics) have sometimes suffered layoffs. Labor markets must therefore adapt to trade-driven structural changes by focusing on innovation, skill development, and productivity improvement.
7. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Capital Flows
Trade liberalization encourages foreign direct investment (FDI). Multinational corporations (MNCs) set up production facilities in countries with strategic trade advantages — such as low labor costs, favorable tax policies, or access to key markets. FDI inflows create employment, transfer technology, and boost local markets.
For example, automobile giants like Toyota and Hyundai invested in India to serve both domestic and export markets. Similarly, U.S. tech companies have established R&D centers in developing countries to leverage skilled human resources. As trade barriers fall, capital flows more freely, creating interconnected global markets that react swiftly to any trade-related news.
8. Trade Wars and Protectionism
While free trade promotes growth, trade conflicts can destabilize markets. Protectionism — through tariffs, quotas, and trade barriers — distorts market efficiency and raises costs for consumers and producers alike. Trade wars, such as the one between the U.S. and China, reduce global growth prospects and shake investor confidence.
Protectionist policies often lead to inflationary pressures (as imports become expensive), reduced exports, and declining business profits. Global supply chains become disrupted, affecting industries from semiconductors to agriculture. Consequently, financial markets become volatile, and currencies fluctuate unpredictably.
9. Supply Chain Globalization and Market Interdependence
Modern trade is not just about exporting finished goods — it’s about global supply chains. A single product like a smartphone involves components sourced from multiple countries. This interdependence means that disruptions in one country (due to natural disasters, political instability, or pandemics) can have global ripple effects.
The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted this vulnerability. Factory shutdowns in China led to worldwide shortages of electronics, automotive parts, and consumer goods. As supply chains recovered, inflationary pressures spread globally, affecting interest rates and stock valuations. Investors now track supply chain data as closely as trade statistics to assess market risks.
10. Environmental and Social Impacts
World trade also influences environmental and social policies. The demand for raw materials and energy-intensive goods contributes to carbon emissions and climate change. To counter this, many countries are adopting ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) frameworks and promoting green trade initiatives like carbon credits and renewable energy exports.
Markets are beginning to reward sustainable trade practices. Investors favor companies that align with eco-friendly standards and responsible sourcing. Thus, the intersection of trade and sustainability is shaping new market trends and investment opportunities.
11. Conclusion: The Future of World Trade and Markets
World trade remains a powerful engine driving global market dynamics. Its impacts are broad and deep — influencing economic growth, currency values, commodity prices, employment, and investment flows. However, as globalization evolves, new challenges such as digital trade, geopolitical tensions, and environmental concerns will redefine how markets respond to trade patterns.
In the future, digital trade, AI-driven logistics, and regional trade alliances (like RCEP and EU partnerships) will shape global commerce. Markets that adapt to these transformations with innovation, transparency, and resilience will thrive in the next era of global trade.
Final Thought
In essence, world trade acts as the heartbeat of the global economy. It integrates nations, drives competition, and promotes prosperity. But it also introduces complexity and vulnerability. Understanding its impacts helps market participants — from policymakers to investors — navigate an ever-changing financial landscape shaped by the flow of goods, services, and ideas across borders.
DOLLAR INDEX 3HR CHART DOLLAR index from TVC broker already attained 100.354 before correction and i see the buying pace to return into 100$ and above despite rate cut .the close of the newyork session came back to my demand floor and reacted on long position based on the rule of break and retest.
FUNDAMENTAL OF DOLLAR INDEX .
The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX or DXY) is a measure of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of six major foreign currencies: the euro (EUR), Japanese yen (JPY), British pound (GBP), Canadian dollar (CAD), Swedish krona (SEK), and Swiss franc (CHF). It was created by the U.S. Federal Reserve in 1973 shortly after the Bretton Woods Agreement dissolved. The index is maintained and published by the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).
How the Dollar Index Works
The index is a weighted geometric mean of the dollar’s value relative to the six currencies, with the euro having the largest weight (57.6%).
A rise in the index indicates dollar strengthening against these currencies, while a decline indicates dollar weakness.
Impact on Gold Price
Gold is priced in U.S. dollars globally, so its price has an inverse relationship with the dollar index.
When the dollar strengthens (index rises), gold becomes more expensive in other currencies, reducing demand and often causing gold prices to fall.
Conversely, when the dollar weakens (index falls), gold becomes cheaper internationally, increasing demand and driving prices up.
Additionally, gold is viewed as a safe-haven asset, so macroeconomic factors influencing the dollar also indirectly affect gold's price dynamics.
The relationship between the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) is closely interconnected, reflecting how currency strength and bond yields interact in financial markets.
Key Points of Dollar Index and US10Y Relationship:
Positive Correlation:
Generally, the Dollar Index and the US 10-year Treasury yield move together. When the 10-year yield rises, it often signals expectations of stronger U.S. economic growth and potential inflation, which tends to boost demand for the U.S. dollar, pushing the Dollar Index higher.
Yield Attraction:
Higher U.S. Treasury yields make U.S. assets more attractive to global investors, increasing the demand for dollars to buy Treasury securities. This capital inflow strengthens the dollar against other currencies, reflected in a rising Dollar Index.
Monetary Policy Expectations:
The 10-year yield is influenced by Federal Reserve monetary policy and market expectations. When the Fed signals tightening (rate hikes), yields rise, supporting dollar strength. Conversely, easing tends to lower yields and weigh on the dollar.
Safe-Haven Dynamics:
During economic uncertainty or risk-off events, both U.S. Treasuries and the dollar may see increased demand. This can sometimes cause a decoupling if yields fall (due to bond buying) while the dollar strengthens as a safe haven.
Reasons for Dollar Index Rising Despite Rate Cuts:
Safe-Haven Demand:
Even with rate cuts, in times of global uncertainty or geopolitical tensions, the U.S. dollar remains a preferred safe-haven currency. Investors flock to the dollar for safety, pushing the index higher.
Relative Central Bank Policies:
The dollar’s strength is relative. If other major central banks (ECB, BOJ, BOE,RBA,RBNZ,BOC ) maintain lower rates or ease monetary policy more aggressively, the dollar can strengthen even if the Fed cuts rates.
Market Expectations and Rate Cut Timing:
Rate cuts may have been widely anticipated and priced in ahead of time. The dollar may have declined earlier, and once the cut occurs without negative surprises, it can stabilize or rebound.
Economic Outlook and Inflation:
If the rate cut is seen as precautionary with a still strong U.S. economy or persistent inflation, dollar strength may persist since the Fed is not signaling prolonged easing.
Yield Curve and Bond Flows:
Even with short-term cuts, longer-dated Treasury yields may remain elevated due to inflation or growth expectations, attracting foreign capital and supporting the dollar.
Technical and Positioning Factors:
Trading dynamics, market positioning, and technical support levels can sustain or boost the dollar temporarily irrespective of fundamentals ,such as the break and retest of the daily supply roof and traders took long position on the retest of a broken supply as a new demand floor to close the week touching 100.354 before correction
#US10Y #DXY #dollar
FRGNT FUN COUPON FRIDAY -Q4 | W45 | D7| Y25 | DXY📅 Q4 | W45 | D7| Y25 |
📊 DXY FRGNT Daily Forecast
FRGNT FUN COUPON FRIDAY
🔍 Analysis Approach:
I’m applying Smart Money Concepts, focusing on:
Identifying Points of Interest on the Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️
Using those POIs to define a clear trading range 📐
Refining those zones on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎
Waiting for a Break of Structure (BoS) for confirmation ✅
This method allows me to stay precise, disciplined, and aligned with the market narrative, rather than chasing price.
💡 My Motto:
"Capital management, discipline, and consistency in your trading edge."
A positive risk-to-reward ratio, paired with a high win rate, is the backbone of any solid trading plan 📈🔐
⚠️ Losses?
They’re part of the mathematical game of trading 🎲
They don’t define you — they’re necessary, they happen, and we move forward 📊➡️
🙏 I appreciate you taking the time to review my Daily Forecast.
Stay sharp, stay consistent, and protect your capital
— FRNGT 🚀
TVC:DXY
DXY ANALYSIS: TRADING WEEK 3 - 7 NOVEMBER 2025On this video i higlight the importance of the 101.800 area of resistance, a multi year resistance that on my view will be reached soon
I have two possible scenarios for the DXY next week:
- Test of the 101.800 during the first 2/3 trading days and pullback to the 97,700 area of support where the DXY would cover a gap left open 3 weeks ago and where the DXY will start rallying up again
- Test of the 101.300 - 101.500 level of resistance during the first 2/3 trading days and pullback to the 98.500 - 98.400 area of support where the DXY will start rallying up again
Data released through the week and the strength of the Index will ultimately confirm one of the two scenario
I will update and follow up on this trading analysis - setup; please like, comment and share if you like this Trading Idea
US Dollar's Abnormal BehaviorWhy am I saying it abnormal
- because typically DXY tends to weaken with a rate cuts
- In the last 2 month - there were 2 rate cuts,
- but since those "cuts", a declining dollar begins to show upward corrections (or started getting strong)
- Yesterday - ADP released a very strong labor statistics +42K from -29K in the previous month
- Now dollar must continue to strengthen & rise upon such positive data...........
- But today, DXY started with a gap-down and outlook looks further bearish today
DXY — London SessionThe US Dollar traded through 99.357, confirming a wide range between 97.6 and 99.9.
This is already a large playing field, and today’s movement needs extra care.
It’s Friday, and with weekend flows plus U.S. politics in the mix, price can move irregularly.
Signals need double confirmation before bias.
We have our range, and the focus now is to respect it — not rush it.
The professional move: wait for structure to prove intent.
Discipline always beats impulse.
Fundamentals
Dollar strength remains supported by cautious sentiment.
Yields are steady, and investors are holding defensive exposure rather than chasing risk.
It’s less about fresh demand — more about managing positioning ahead of next week’s data.
— CORE5DAN
Institutional Logic. Modern Technology. Real Freedom.
US Dollar Index Daily Chart
Daily supply zone【99.78....100.22】
Previous resistance level。
Position at the upper Bollinger Band,
The RSI indicator shows a high level,
Three consecutive daily candlestick charts,Can be considered as the top structure
Possible trend expectations Bearish direction。
Let's wait and see.
Bullish bounce off 50% Fibonacci support?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot, which has been identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 99.53
1st Support: 99.13
1st Resistance: 100.49
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