Market insights
DXY: Bearish Structure Confirmed After Fed’s Dovish Shift“DXY confirms a bearish structure after breaking below the mid-term ascending channel. Yesterday’s Fed rate cut and the unexpectedly dovish tone acted as a catalyst for a decline that was already visible in the chart through weakening momentum and a series of lower highs on the H4 timeframe.
Price is trading below the 20/50 EMA on both H1 and H4, keeping short-term order flow bearish. As long as DXY remains under the 104.20–104.40 supply zone (the origin of the last impulsive drop), bearish continuation remains the primary scenario toward 103.10 and 102.70 liquidity levels.
The news didn’t create the trend — it simply accelerated a technical breakdown that was already in motion.”
Dollar Index analysisThe Dollar Index was gaining some momentum and looked like it might finally break the 100 resistance after a long time, but it got rejected again. On the 4-hour timeframe, we can see a clean range that hit the top and got rejected.
Right now, it’s stuck around the midline of the channel, and there’s a high probability it will reach the bottom of the channel. This, in turn, will provide a bullish signal for both the Euro and gold.
DAILY DXY IDEAprice has tapped a key demand level and is showing a clean rebound toward the mid-range.
The first upside magnet sits around those highlighted arrows and horizontal$ and so forth if momentum holds before Christmas 25th.
Structureee stays bullish while price holds above 99.200. a clean break below that level opens the path back toward 97.95
lets break bread...
DXY Butterfly & December NewsIn this video, we focus on forecasting the future trend of the Dollar Index just hours before the release of key economic data, including:
- Core Retail Sales m/m
- Non-Farm Employment Change
- Retail Sales m/m
- Unemployment Rate
Our analysis is based on candlestick formation patterns combined with harmonic patterns.
The ideal Butterfly pattern notably indicates an upward trend in the Dollar Index toward the Order Block Zone.
Bullish bounce reversal?US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance, which has been identified as an overlap resistance.
Pivot: 97.66
1st Suport: 97.17
1st Resistance: 98.97
Disclaimer:
The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party
DXY Breakout Map — Is the Dollar Index Ready for a Power Move?🎯 DXY BULLISH BREAKOUT: The "Limit Order Layup" Strategy 🚀
Hey Thief OGs! 👋 The King Dollar 👑 is getting ready for a potential rally, and we've got the map 🗺️ to navigate it. This is a swing/day trade plan focusing on a classic technical setup with a tactical entry twist.
📈 The Overall Plan (Bias): BULLISH 🐂
The strategy waits for a bullish confirmation using a Simple Moving Average (SMA) pullback 🔙 followed by a MACD golden cross ✨. We're buying the dip, expecting a continuation upward 📊.
⚡ The Thief's Entry Tactic (The "Layering Method") 🎁
The key is patience and precision. We don't chase the price.
✅ Wait for the Trigger: Confirm a daily close ABOVE 99.200.
🎯 Deploy Limit Orders: After the breakout, set multiple buy limit orders at key support levels to get a good average entry price.
Suggested Layers: 🟢 98.400, 🟢 98.600, 🟢 98.800, 🟢 99.000
💡 Pro Tip: You can adjust the number of layers and levels based on your own risk appetite!
🛡️ Risk Management (The Escape Plan) 🚨
Stop Loss (SL): A hard stop is placed at 98.200. This level is the line in the sand – if price breaks below here, our thesis is likely invalid ❌.
⚠️ Note: Dear Ladies & Gentleman (Thief OGs), I do not recommend you set only my SL. It is your own choice. You can make money, then take money at your own risk.
🎯 Profit Targets (The Getaway) 💰
Take Profit (TP): We are targeting 100.200. This zone aligns with where the Moving Average may act as strong resistance, and the market could become overbought. When the trap is set, we escape with profits! 🏃♂️💨
⚠️ Note: Dear Ladies & Gentleman (Thief OGs), I am not recommending you set only my TP. It is your own choice. You can make money, then take money at your own risk.
🔍 Related Pairs to Watch & Key Correlations 🌐
The DXY doesn't move in a vacuum. Keep an eye on these:
EUR/USD ( FX:EURUSD ): 👑 The inverse king. A rising DXY typically means a falling EUR/USD 📉.
GBP/USD ( FX:GBPUSD ): Similar to the Euro, a strong dollar often pressures Cable downward 📉.
Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ): 🪙 Gold is priced in USD. A stronger dollar can make gold more expensive for other currencies, often putting downward pressure on it 📉.
USD/JPY ( FX:USDJPY ): A strong dollar trend usually powers USD/JPY higher 📈.
Key Point: If our DXY bullish idea is correct, you should generally see EUR/USD and GBP/USD weakening 📉, and USD/JPY strengthening 📈.
✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!”
#DXY #TradingSetup #SwingTrading #Forex #DollarIndex #TradingStrategy #MACD #TechnicalAnalysis #LimitOrder
Major Volatility Incoming – The Most Important News of 2025**“Tomorrow’s U.S. interest rate decision is one of the most critical events of 2025, with the potential to shape market direction across all major asset classes. The Federal Reserve’s stance on rates will directly influence liquidity, risk sentiment, and overall market volatility.
A higher-than-expected rate would strengthen the dollar, increase borrowing costs, and typically pressure risk assets such as Bitcoin, equities, and commodities. On the other hand, a rate cut or a dovish outlook could trigger a strong risk-on reaction, supporting upward momentum in crypto and other high-beta assets.
This announcement is especially important because markets are currently at key technical levels. The reaction to tomorrow’s decision will likely determine whether ongoing downtrends are coming to an end or if another wave of rejection and continuation to the downside is ahead.
Traders should anticipate elevated volatility both before and after the release. Managing risk is essential, as sudden price spikes and liquidity gaps are common during major FOMC events.”**
DOLLAR THE dollar index on daily TF found a strong support and its holding firmly ,the year candle could be green for dollar index,
the structure despite the pull back from the current all time high remains bullish and such price action will affect some of the pairs trading against the dollar.
we will watch EURUSD,AUDUSD,GBPUSD,USDZAR,USDJPY for possible reversal price action.
the dollar is standing on positive support structure from the chart as illustrated.
the next layer of resistance will be 100$ zone ,if buyers bridge this zone they could reclaim 103 hopefully before the end of the year.
trading is 100% probability and risk management is key.
GOODLUCK.
DXY is making perhaps the final pull-back before a massive rallyThe U.S. Dollar index (DXY) has been trading within a Channel Up since the March 2008 bottom during the U.S. Housing Crisis. This is not the first time we use this pattern to identify key macro trend shifts, in fact we revisited it a little over 2 months ago.
The incredible symmetry it's been showing, with clear correction phases (red Channels) followed by bullish phases, eventually lead to price rallies to the 1.618 Fibonacci extension.
Right now the price is past a 1W Death Cross, which has always been a bottom signal on this multi-year Channel Up, and is pulling back on perhaps the final mini drop before the new 2-year Bullish Leg begins.
This has always happened at the end of the Bear Cycles (red correction phase) with the Arc pattern showing a final pull-back before the decisive rebound the breaks above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). That break-out is the confirmation of the Bull Cycle start (Bullish Leg).
With the 1M RSI having already touched its 16-year Support Zone, which has provided the most optimal Buy Signals throughout this pattern, we expect the Dollar Index to start rising aggressively in the long-term, targeting the 120.000 - 128.000 Zone on its way to the 1.618 Fib ext, which has been where the previous Higher Highs (Cycle Tops) were priced.
Notice also that a solid peak indicator (Sell signal) is when the 1M RSI hits 80.00, indicating that the market is massively overbought (overheated trend).
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DXY- A Move Is Loading…The U.S. Dollar Index is showing signs of a shallow corrective move within a broader weakening structure. Short-term upside attempts may remain limited while the overall flow continues to favor the downside, with a potential continuation once this correction concludes.
**Disclosure:** We are part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in our analysis.
Bullish reversal?US Dollar Index (DXY) has bounced off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 98.83
1st Support: 98.40
1st Resistance: 99.53
Disclaimer:
The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party
US DOLLAR INDEX - Key Breakout or Just a Relief Pump?INDEX:DXY
Not gonna lie, this chart looks like the dollar is walking on thin ice right now. Price just slipped under that 50 EMA after failing to pierce their high at 100.360
We've still got that solid support parked near 98.030 and if that gives way we will keep pointing straight down to the 96.3 liquidity shelf from mid-year.
The structure kinda screams “lower highs, lower strength,” and that supply zone up at 101.977 is still untouched, just chilling up there like a concrete slab ceiling.
And honestly… I’m not even big on following economic news, but lately I keep seeing about higher living costs and ‘soft landing’ things, so part of me feels like the $$ might be leaning bear by that alone. Am I the only one seeing that no? lol
USD Testing Pivotal Support Ahead of FOMCThe US Dollar is rebounding off key near-term support into the start of the week at 98.69/80- a region defined by the August high-day close (HDC), the May swing low, and the 38.2% retracement of the advance off the yearly low. The immediate focus is on this recovery heading into the Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Wednesday. Initial resistance is eyed at 38.2% retracement of the November decline, the December open, and the 200-day moving average around 99.39/48. Near-term bearish invalidation is eyed at the 61.8% retracement 99.77- note that this level converges on former channel support and a breach / close above this threshold would be needed to suggest a more significant low is in place, and the potential for resumption of the September uptrend. Key resistance remains unchanged at the 2024 low, the August high, and the 2024 low-close at 100.15/35.
A break below this key support pivot would threaten substantial losses of the Dollar with the next major technical consideration eyed at the 2018 swing low and the 61.8% retracement 97.71/81.
Bottom line: The US Dollar is rebounding off near-term support, and the focus is on a breakout of the December opening-range in the days. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 98.69 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 99.77 needed to validate the turn. Keep in mind we get the releases of the FOMC’s updated Summary of Economic Projections and the focus will be on the interest rate dot-plot as traders assess the outlook for monetary policy heading into 2026. Expect some volatility this week.
-MB
Dollar Index Has Fallen to Its Lowest Level in Almost 1.5 MonthsThe Dollar Index Has Fallen to Its Lowest Level in Almost 1.5 Months
The key event of the week will take place on 10 December – at 22:00 GMT+3 the FOMC will publish its interest rate decision, followed half an hour later by a press conference with Jerome Powell.
As the chart of the dollar index (DXY) shows, the US dollar is weakening as the event approaches, reflecting market sentiment – the rate is expected to be cut by 25 basis points due to pressure from Trump and a cooling labour market. This underpins the bearish trend that has been in place since late November.
A reminder that on 24 November we:
→ highlighted the importance of resistance around 100.20 points;
→ and constructed a system of two trend channels.
Since then, the price has moved lower within the descending channel, and:
→ new swing points have allowed us to refine the channel boundaries;
→ a large bearish double-top pattern (A–B) has formed on the chart above the psychological level of 100 points.
The dollar index chart indicates that selling pressure is dominant (as shown by the arrows):
→ the lower boundary of the ascending channel has switched its role from support to resistance;
→ a similar role reversal has occurred at the 99.11 level.
Today, the DXY index is near the lower boundary of the descending channel. It is reasonable to assume that in the short term:
→ the market will enter a wait-and-see mode ahead of the news;
→ a consolidation zone may form on the chart, supported by the lower boundary of the red channel.
Be prepared for surges in volatility on the currency markets on Wednesday evening.
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