Bullish Look for potential Reversal bullish candlestick formation upon the retest of daily demand zone.
DXY trade ideas
DXY update last trade taken got sl , the reason was we were early sellers that's why market liquidate us.
Now it gave again choch , for safety purpose waitng for 2nd bos as well once market fullfil the condition , looking for short xxx/usd pairs.
USD is Bearish, SO BUY EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD CHF & JPY!In this video, we will update Saturday's forecasts mid-week, and look for valid setup for the rest of the week ahead. The following FX markets will be analyzed:
USD Index
EURUSD
GBPUSD
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
USDCAD
USDCHF
USDJPY
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or other wise. In this video, we will update the forecasts for the following FX markets:
Dollar Index (From Monthly to HourlyDollar index in hourly. Not much space for dollar to depreciate, and l think this will provide a good guidance on the stock market as well.
DXY Bullish scenario (Daily)Dxy is still respecting the market maker buy model idea.
Monday traded inside friday range.
Today (Tuesday) price already traded above monday previous high signaling bullish momentum and a higher probability to trade also above friday high.
Right now price is consolidating between a daily bullish fair value gap and a bearish daily volume imbalance.
With the information we have, price is likelly to shop arround with no clear direction before FOMC.
For the current week price is still in the manipulation phase.
Traders will find higher probability trades after FOMC.
Monitoring economic data and assetsThis is my attempt to get as much of the important economic indicators into one TV superchart. I've added some assets as well so that I can see how they're affected in any particular period.
USXUSD H4 FTB FrameworkUSXUSD H4 FTB Framework
NFP High is weak.
Let's see if Medz is right once again.
DXY (US Dollar): Bullish Order FlowA bullish order block has been identified on the H1 timeframe, situated below the Asian session range. With the US Dollar maintaining steady strength, there is potential for price to retrace into this order block for mitigation. Should this occur, a continuation of the bullish trend is anticipated, with price likely to rally and break above the recent structural high.
Could this be DXY's fate amidst the dovish tentions? #FEDS📈 Most Likely Probability: Neutral-to-Slightly Bullish Bias
🔍 Supporting Fundamentals:
Stronger-than-expected NFP: Suggests economic resilience → supports dollar strength.
Fed holding rates steady (but no dovish pivot): Keeps real yields relatively attractive → supports demand for USD.
Tariff/trade calm: Reduces tail risk, but also reduces safe-haven flow → slightly neutral.
📉 Limiting Fundamentals:
Calmer global risk sentiment and improved outlook in emerging markets may reduce dollar inflows.
No fresh hawkish push from the Fed = limited fuel for strong breakout.
📊 Technical Outlook (DXY near 100.00):
Key Support: ~99.70–100.00 (9-day EMA + psychological support)
Key Resistance: ~100.50–101.00 zone
Momentum: Slight recovery attempts with weakening bearish momentum
If the DXY holds above 99.70 and breaks above 100.50, a move toward 101.00 is likely next week. Failing to hold 99.70 could open a pullback toward 99.00.
NFP Analysis: More Bullish Order Flow?The Dollar has broken structure to the upside and is now pulling back into equilibrium. From this discounted level, I'm looking to capitalise on any valid bullish setups, as break-of-structure moves often lead to continuation towards previous highs.
DXY bullish week forecastWeekly on potential external to internal move
Daily chart showing bullish order flow and potential internal to external move.
DXY Technical Expert Review - 3 May 2025Weekly Price Reaction Expectations:
Overall, for this week, we expect a price reaction around the ATI candle zone, followed by another potential reaction near the upper LQCLOSE BOX area.
DXY Bullish Momentum Justification:
Additionally, since the LPP or investment liquidity has been consumed, the bullish momentum in DXY appears more justified.
DOLLARDXY and Bond Yield Correlation: Key Dynamics in 2025
Core Relationship
The US Dollar Index (DXY) and US 10-Year Treasury yields exhibit a positive correlation, driven by shared sensitivity to Federal Reserve policy, inflation expectations, and global risk sentiment.
Fed Rate Hikes Strengthens USD (DXY ↑) and pushes yields higher
Strong US Growth Bolsters USD and raises yields via inflation risks
Risk-On Sentiment Weakens USD and lowers yields as capital flows to riskier assets
Inflation Fears Raises yields but may not always lift USD if growth concerns dominate
Current Correlation Metrics (2025)
DXY and 10-Year Yield Correlation: Historically positive, with recent coefficients ranging from +0.50 to +0.93 depending on market conditions.
USD/JPY and Yields: Extreme correlation of +0.93 in 2025, reflecting synchronized moves between the dollar and yields.
Key Drivers in 2025
Monetary Policy:
The Fed’s restrictive stance (4.50% rate) supports both USD and yields, but delayed cuts and tariff-induced inflation risks create volatility.
ECB and BoJ dovishness amplifies USD strength, reinforcing the correlation.
Economic Data:
Robust US GDP growth (0.4% Q1 2025) and sticky inflation (2.1% in Germany) keep yields elevated, supporting DXY.
Weakness in global markets (e.g., China, EU) drives safe-haven flows into USD and Treasuries, complicating the correlation.
Fiscal and Geopolitical Risks:
US fiscal deficit concerns and trade tensions (e.g., U.S.-China tariffs) threaten to decouple DXY from yields. For example, rising yields due to debt supply fears may coincide with USD weakness if investors flee US assets.
Bond market turbulence (10-Year yields at 4.47% in April 2025) highlights sensitivity to foreign demand and leverage unwinds.
Exceptions and Divergences
Risk-Off Scenarios: In crises, investors may buy both Treasuries (lowering yields) and USD, creating a temporary negative correlation.
De-Dollarization Fears: Structural shifts, such as reduced foreign appetite for US debt, could weaken the link between DXY and yields despite high rates.
2025 Outlook
Yield Range: Expected to stabilize between 4%–5%, supporting a firm USD if Fed policy remains hawkish.
DXY Trajectory: Faces headwinds from fiscal risks and tariffs but could rebound if global growth slows and US data stays resilient.
Summary Table
Correlation Positive (DXY ↑ as yields ↑), but context-dependent
Fed Policy Primary driver; higher rates lift both DXY and yields
Inflation Supports yields, but may weaken USD if growth falters
Global Risk Risk-off flows can strengthen USD while lowering yields
2025 Risks Fiscal deficits, tariffs, and de-dollarization may disrupt correlation
In conclusion, while DXY and bond yields generally move in tandem, 2025’s unique mix of monetary policy, fiscal strains, and geopolitical shifts introduces volatility. Traders should monitor Fed rhetoric, inflation data, and global risk appetite for directional cues.
Bearish forecast for DXYWith regards my previous forecast, we have a strong reaction from Weekly and daily premium arrays.
On the weekly TF, we have IOFED of the SIBI and BSL above previous 2 weeks' highs was taken.
Tf: time frame
IOFED: Institutional Order Flow Express Entry Drill
SIBI: Sellside Imbalance, Buyside Inefficiency.
BSL: Buy side liquidity
DXY Bullish Based on price Action, this is a swing long with a 1:4 RR
Target is there as we have pending buy side liquidity that was left for future run
Dollar Outlook Ahead of Jobs ReportThe dollar index is attempting a comeback, but the 100.20–100.50 zone has so far formed a strong resistance. Today’s jobs report will be key for determining the short-term direction.
Nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise by 138k. This could be the last relatively strong report before the effects of tariffs begin to weigh on the labor market. Leading indicators already show significant pressure on trade and transportation employment, though the full impact is likely to emerge in future reports. Still, we may see early signs of softness today.
As the economy comes out of winter, there could be some temporary strength in weather-sensitive sectors. Overall, I expect a slight beat in today’s nonfarm payrolls data. If unemployment also holds at 4.2%, the dollar could respond positively. Positive reaction to the payrolls data usually do not pass around 1% gains.
An interesting detail: TVC:DXY has risen after each of the last eight jobs reports, regardless of whether the data was strong or weak. That trend might end today, though, as the dollar is no longer in an established uptrend.
If the 100.20–100.50 resistance zone breaks, the dollar could climb toward 101.50 in the coming days. However, the broader outlook remains negative.
Please check our longer-term analysis here:
possibity of uptrendAs long as the index fluctuates above the support area, the upward trend will likely continue. Otherwise, the correction will continue to the specified support levels.
DXY Will Fall! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
DXY keeps strengthening
These last days and the index
Has almost reached a horizontal
Resistance level of 100.500
From where we will be expecting
A local bearish pullback and
A local move down
Sell!
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US Dollar Bulls Return Ahead of NFPsThe US Dollar is testing resistance today at the 2023 / 2024 low day closes (LDC) at 99.95-100.42- looking for possible infection off this mark in the days ahead.
A closer look at USD price action shows the index trading into the resistance at the median-line in early U.S. trade. A topside breach above this threshold is needed to validate a breakout of the weekly opening-range with subsequent resistance see at the September high-day close (HDC) / September high at 101.77/92. Note that channel resistance converges on this threshold over the next few weeks and a breach / close above this slope would be needed to suggest a more significant low was registered last week / a larger reversal is underway. Subsequent resistance eyed at the 2016 high-close / 2020 high at 102.95/99 and the 2023 yearly open at 103.49.
Key support remains unchanged at the 2018 swing high / 61.8% retracement of the 2018 advance at 97.71-98.39- a close below this threshold would threaten another bout of accelerated USD losses with subsequent support seen at the 96-handle, the 2022 LDC at 95.17 and the March 2020 low at 94.65.
A rebound off key support takes the U.S. Dollar into initial resistance with major event risk on tap tomorrow. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to this week’s low IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a breach above 100.42 needed to fuel the next leg of the recovery.
-MB
DOLLAR DOLLAR ,the double bottom reversal of gold is showing demand to reclaim the 100 mark,if it stays above this zone we could see a strong bullish kick.
DXY ReturnOne half of an inverse head and shoulders formed on the 1D chart. Pattern could complete on talks of tariffs calming. Ukraine mineral agreement will be good for USD long term.
Catching a 1:2R trade on the dollar indexWeekly EBP (Engulfing Bar Play) and inversion of the daily FVG for a 1:2R trade.
