Weekly DXY Candle AnalysisIt’s been nearly 220 days that the Dollar Index has been trading below the key 100 level, and this week it managed to approach 100 with a relatively strong candle compared to previous ones.
If this week closes above 100, and next week also manages to hold above it, we can expect the Dollar Index to strengthen.
As long as the DXY hasn’t given a proper confirmation above 100, we remain sellers on the index.
Trade ideas
Dollar Index Double Top!Within a 4-hour time frame, the DXY (Dollar Index) is forming a double top. There's a slight bullish divergence at RSI 14, which makes it a potential buy signal.
With FVG (Fair Value Gap), Buy Limit would be at around 100.03, and if taking Buy Stop (a more cautious approach), then the entry point would be at around 100.45.
SP500 Testing Do-Die Support Stocks are seeing a pretty strong and aggressive decline, interestingly right after Nvidia delivered earnings that beat expectations, so it looks like the market still wants to move lower as AI-related valuations in the tech sector are simply too high and the market needs a deeper retracement. What stands out is that the S&P 500 has now retraced perfectly back to that October 10th Friday gap, when we saw a massive 3.5% sell-off in just one session, so I’m wondering if this zone could act as an interesting support for a potential rebound.
Keep in mind that despite the weakness in stocks over the last few sessions, we are not seeing that much strength on the dollar as you would normally expect in risk-off; so if stocks rebound the dollar could also slow down, ideally around 100.35–100.65 where the upside could be limited at the upper side of a wedge formation. I really want to see how the market will close today, because if we get a positive reaction in stocks then we may have some reason for a bounce next week, but if not and the market fails to recover today, then I’m afraid we can see much lower levels on the S&P 500 while DXY invalidate the diagonal formation.
DXY About to DROP? Massive Short Pressure Building for December!The US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing clear signs of short pressure, and price action looks like it’s gearing up for a potential bearish move heading into next week and early December. In this video, I break down what I'm seeing on the charts, how momentum is shifting, and the key levels I’m watching for confirmation.
If you’re trading USD pairs—UJ, UCHF, UCAD, EU, GU, AU, NU—this move could set the tone for early December volatility. Tap in so you don’t miss the setups forming right now.
#DXY #ForexAnalysis #USDollar #ForexTrading #MarketOutlook #DollarIndex #PriceAction #BearishSetup #FXTrader #TradingInsights #TechnicalAnalysis #ShortPressure #ForexMarket #WeeklyForecast #DecemberOutlook
2025 – The Year of the Normalized Dollar (Episode 2)2025 – The Year of the Normalized Dollar (Episode 2) 📉💵
📆 Feb 25 was just the beginning — and now we’ve got confirmation.
DXY couldn’t hold above structure, and the drop is on. What began as a quiet theme is turning into the macro headline:
The King Dollar is softening... on purpose.
🔍 Chart Context
• 🔴 Rejection at 112.3 — clean and brutal**
• 🔁 100.95 now flipped into resistance**
• 📉 Heading toward Target: 94.37** — the long-term structure low
The structure hasn’t changed — only the velocity has.
This isn’t a flash move. This is policy-meets-price.
🧨 Fundamentals: Trump’s Soft Dollar Doctrine
Back on January 23, Trump told the world exactly what he wanted:
“I’d like to see interest rates come down… a lot.”
“Oil down, prices down, inflation gone — and then rates down.”
Translation?
💵 A weaker dollar to fuel exports, ease debt loads, and juice the real economy.**
This is not weakness — it’s a recalibration.
Add in:
• Tariffs + labor policy inflation
• Pressure on Powell
• Geopolitical chess moves (Putin negotiations, Middle East detente)
→ and you’ve got a coordinated softening playbook.
📉 What’s Next?
• 🔹 Break 98 = Target 94.37 opens wide
• 🧱 If 94 cracks, we’ll re-assess — but for now, that’s the magnet
• DXY needs a miracle to reclaim strength without Fed resistance easing
2025 could be the year the dollar gets normalized by force — not finesse.
🔄 Perspective Shift 🔄
This isn’t dollar death — it’s dollar diplomacy.
Strong enough to hold global weight, soft enough to boost Main Street.
You think this isn’t coordinated? Look again. 📡
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
First episode:
⚠️ I’m not a financial advisor — just a philosopher with better chart vision than 99% of the noise out there. What I share is my view, not a signal. You trade? You’re responsible. Just don’t blame me when I’m right again.
US Dollar: Look For Buys As The Pullback Ends!Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Nov. 17 - 21st.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: USD Dollar
The USD was in retracement last week. It looks like that may be ending, and a new bullish leg could potential start early this week.
Wait patiently for the bullish shift in the market at a key poi... like the Weekly +FVG highlighted in the video. The 1H TF should make this obvious, and look to long the USD against its currency counterparts.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
$DXY $BTCHope all is well and wishing you a wonderful 2025 Holiday Season.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC & TVC:DXY
In recent news, Bitcoin and the Dollar are currently priced at $86,466 & $100.26.
I believe the Dollar will increase through 2026-2027, as the economy reflects current labor markets, deflation, and "risk-off" equities, as investors seek safe harbor during troubling times.
From the historical price action, you can see the Dollar gaining strength, as CRYPTOCAP:BTC falls relative to the Dollar demand.
Vice versa, as the Dollar weakens, risk profile turns on and price action increases for CRYPTOCAP:BTC and other speculative assets.
I'm estimating TVC:DXY to reach $110-$115 (Average $112.50), which can place CRYPTOCAP:BTC around $62,000-$46,000 (Average $54,000).
God Speed,
JR
DXY | Testing Major Resistance — Break or Rejection?The dollar is pressing into a key resistance zone just as real yields continue to firm and the Fed quietly steps back from the “early-cuts” narrative. Inflation is still running above the comfort band, and the market is repricing the path of rates upward.
That combination keeps USD carry attractive and supports a potential breakout through this level.
The only thing that turns this into a rejection area is a sharp shift lower in inflation or a clear softening in growth data. Until then, the bias stays with a topside extension rather than a reversal.
PRE-NY CONDITIONS Dollar is pressing into a major cross-asset high, recognized across FX, yields, and risk assets. London kept DXY inside a tight structure with no clean breakout, which turns this level into stop-time: the point where liquidity pauses and the market decides whether the move extends or fades.
Front-end yields remain firm, anchoring the Dollar’s support. The 10-year is indecisive, offering no confirmation and keeping the curve without a clear macro signal. ES holds its overnight gap on Nvidia strength, but volatility near 21 keeps risk fragile. Gold remains neutral, reflecting a balanced but uncertain safety tone into the U.S. session.
DXY: Testing a major high; range-bound after London; structure stretched but supported by 2Y strength.
US10Y: Indecisive daily structure; long end is not confirming Dollar strength; macro tone remains unclear.
US2Y: Firm short-end repricing; maintains policy pressure and supports Dollar tone.
ES: Holding gap; risk appetite supported but shallow; volatility still limiting follow-through.
Gold: Neutral safety tone; neither attracting nor rejecting flows; reflects cross-asset indecision.
VIX: Near 21; elevated volatility keeps conditions reactive and reduces trend reliability.
Cross-asset alignment remains mixed. The Dollar is firm, but only the front end confirms it. Long-end yields hesitate. ES shows controlled appetite, but volatility denies conviction. Gold confirms the indecision. Liquidity conditions lean cautious, shaped more by bond market signals than by clean macro drivers.
Pillar Focus: PEM — Confirmation Entries
Today's environment aligns with PEM logic. A stretched Dollar at a major level, split yields, and elevated volatility mean operators should rely on confirmation-based triggers, shorter engagements, and strict timing. High-frequency windows (NY open → 10:00 → London fix) carry more clarity than directional assumptions.
Follow higher-timeframe direction
Ignore noise from earlier sessions
Wait for structure + flow alignment
Act only on confirmation
Summary: NY opens into a cautious environment defined by a stretched Dollar, mixed yields, and elevated volatility — a clear PEM day.
— CORE5DAN
Institutional Logic. Modern Technology. Real Freedom.
NOV.9,2025 ANALYSIS ON DXY, BTC, NAS100, SPX500, XAUUSD & XAGUSDDXY CAUTION trading Below 55 EMA on 4H however 4H divergence at support zone is promising for uptrend continuation. Trend is still up on the daily chart and currently getting push back from the 200SMA. There are indicators supporting uptrend continuation such as the MACD histogram still up on weekly chart and unconfirmed RSI Bullish divergence on the 4H timeframe. A breakdown below 99.029 could target the 98.700 level next. However if the current support holds then our next target is 100.608 for the coming week and confirmation signal is a candle open and close above the 55 EMA on the 4H timeframe.
BTC BEARISH SIDEWAYS consolidating on the weekly 55 EMA support. While the weekly 55 EMA has acted as a support during previous rallies on BTC, I think this time is different until proven otherwise by the chart as there is no RSI divergence, MACD momentum signal similar to previous signals on the current weekly chart. A breakdown of the 55 EMA on the weekly chart is very likely to reach the triple tops target of $88,016. Trade cautiously until we breakout of the daily sideways channel described in the video presentation.
NAS100 & SP500 BEARISH with 4H mom trending down. There is a support on the daily 55 EMA or weekly 9 EMA, but evidence supporting the bearish case is the MACD crossover and bearish histogram bars on daily charts. Weekly MACD and RSI signals serious divergences since July, 2025. My conclusion is that based on Bullish engulfing candle on 4H, I think there will be a bounce to the rise targets on the charts before dumping.
GOLD & SILVER SIDEWAYS: both consolidating in a pennant triangle on the 12H timeframe and I suggest it's best to wait for a breakout of the triangle for either a re-test of the all time highs to create a weekly divergence on the indicators or below the pennant triangle lows for the lower targets.
I did also examine the US10Y Yields as it affects both the dollar index and the equites market. The US10Y Yield seem to have bottomed it's downtrend on the 4H chart and currently consolidating above the 200 EMA and 55 EMA. I will be monitoring an uptick or a breakdown from this support zone.
These are my observation on the market this week and I thank you for visiting my publications.
Please give the publication a boost, comment with your insights and share with a trader you care about. They will thank you when it saves them from a bad trade or a missed opportunity. Have a profitable and great trading week. Cheers .
USD trades north of 200-day SMAFrom the monthly timeframe, price action is attempting to manoeuvre north of key resistance from 99.67. In fact, this is the highest the USD Index (DXY) has traded since May this year. Assuming buyers can hold the fort above the noted resistance line, this could give the greenback some legs to run to the 50-month SMA at 102.83. Ultimately, though, given the lower low formed in September at 96.22 – helping to reaffirm a downtrend – a move to the 50-month SMA could be viewed as a pullback to sell.
Drilling down to the daily timeframe, USD bulls lifted price above the 200-day SMA at 99.92. In addition to the 50-day SMA turning higher (98.71), most technical analysts will view the close above the 200-day value as a bullish cue. However, to gain more conviction in the break of the monthly resistance mentioned above and the 200-day SMA, I would like to see the daily resistance at 100.54 taken out. Once/if this level is absorbed, the river north is relatively ripple-free to daily resistance at 101.92. This level, combined with the 50-month SMA, provides a clear medium-term upside objective for USD bulls.
Written by FP Markets Chief Market Analyst Aaron Hill
Turning pointThe DXY may have bottomed out on September 17. The subsequent price action could be a series of first and second waves. It either could be simply ABC.
We will get confirmation of this hypothesis next week. If the DXY fails to fall below 97.75, it will confirm that the EURUSD is on the verge of its most significant price movement since 2022.
If to look at the EURUSD SMA 1M TF, we can see that they are bending downward, which is a clue.
The bottom of EURUSD wave 4 is the target - 0.94 per single EUR unit
In addition, gold confirmed the end of the fifth wave intermediate degree this Friday. Gold and the US Dollar usually correlate with each other, usually.
In the short term two cases are probable:
1) DXY may break resistance 100.7 - 102%
2) Coll down to 97,795%
Most likely, both events will occur.
DXY 1D - dollar waking up, but patience is keyOn the daily chart, the US Dollar Index is showing the first signs of recovery: a falling wedge breakout and trendline breach hint that bulls are slowly reclaiming control. Price has moved above the EMA, a short-term bullish signal.
Still, MA200 remains above, reminding us that the broader trend is not yet flipped. The ideal play here - wait for a retest of the breakout trendline to confirm buyers’ strength before jumping in.
If price holds above 99.70, the next upside targets sit around 100.19, 101.31, and 102.63.
But keep in mind - DXY loves to test patience. False breakouts are its favorite sport.
Right now, the dollar looks ready to wake up, but maybe hit the snooze button one last time before the real move begins.
Dollar Index: Bullish Structure + Fed Expectations AligningDXY remains inside a well-defined ascending channel and is currently building structure above mid-channel support. With the Dec 10 Fed meeting approaching, the macro narrative may soon favor additional USD strength.
According to CME FedWatch, markets are pricing:
55.6% probability the Fed holds rates
44.4% probability of a cut
A hold keeps U.S. yields supported and has historically provided short-term upside pressure on the Dollar Index.
Technical Outlook
Price is respecting the ascending channel
Current pullback sits on a key demand zone + channel support
Higher-timeframe supply is above, but continuation structure is intact
The October rate cut reaction formed a clean bullish trend leg — this could be the next impulsive wave
My Bias
I’m anticipating USD strength into — and potentially after — the December Fed meeting, especially if the Fed reiterates cautious, data-dependent language rather than confirming more cuts.
Bullish Thesis:
A Fed hold + risk-off repricing → upside continuation on DXY
Key Levels to Watch:
🔼 100.80
🔼 101.50 (major supply break target)
🔼 102.20+ if momentum accelerates
Invalidation:
A clean break below channel support + demand zone.
DXY Bearish Setup- USD Weakness in Play..FINALLY! The DXY is showing a bearish bias, signaling potential USD weakness this week. Expect the following moves:
Bearish USD pairs:
USD/JPY (UJ): Selling pressure continues as USD loses momentum.
USD/CHF (UCHF): Weak USD drives the pair lower.
USD/CAD (UCAD): USD softness supports further downside.
Bullish non-USD pairs:
AUD/USD (AU): Strength in AUD pushes price higher.
EUR/USD (EU): EUR benefits from a weaker USD, moving up.
GBP/USD (GU): GBP rises as USD falls.
NZD/USD (NU): NZD continues upward momentum against USD.
Hashtags:
#Forex #DXY #USDWeakness #CurrencyTrading #ForexSetup #USDJPY #USDCHF #USDCAD #AUDUSD #EURUSD #GBPUSD #NZDUSD






















