SENSEX INDEX PRICED IN TERMS OF GOLDThe chart of Sensex index in terms of gold.
It don't give a long history, only 11 years.
I ran this chart to answer a specific question;
Will a nuclear war happen?
At least, will India participate in such thing?
A country with booming market reflect a very positive social mood will not engage in a war.
I don't have long enough historic data to get the big picture (at least 20 years of data.)
As the chart show:
1) We have a double bottom and a support line, and
2) A triangle on the right side of the chart.
These tow things suggest that Sensex index and the Indian market as a hall will boom (in terms of gold) in the coming years, hence India will not go to war.
SENSEX trade ideas
BSE India 44K possibleLook at the peaks - Jan 2000, then Jan 2004, then Jan 2008. The next one came an year early in 4Q10 but the one after that again in 4 years - Jan 2015. The next peak at Jan2019 looks feasible. The chart has just crossed the 1.61 fibonacci extension with a strong green candle . Whenever it crosses a fibonacci level with a strong green candle - it is poised to go higher. Talk of overvaluation has already been going on but the bullish crossover of 1.61 extension level makes me feel we may have another 10 months of rally left if there is no deep correction by Feb end
Buy India Manufacturing StocksJapan Is Selling Bullet Trains to India
www.bloomberg.com
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Creating Jobs
Modi is also counting on the project to spur a manufacturing and employment boom. His government says it will create 20,000 construction jobs, apart from 4,000 direct and 20,000 indirect jobs for operations. Local companies such as Larsen & Toubro Ltd., Gammon India Ltd. and GMR Infrastructure Ltd. are also looking to win some of the contracts.
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Indian market meltdownWe are in the 5th elliot wave zone in India. The global economy(NASDAQ, DJ, DAX) is also at an all time high mostly driven by the tech-sector but there are a few cues which hint a pullback.
1. Failing energy sector: in the past few years thermal and nuclear power plants have seen huge investments but these are facing challenges from the renewable energy sector (wind, solar) as these provide much lower unit rate compared to non-renewable sector.
2. Failing IT, BPO sector: Automation and stricter immigration laws have led to a decline in one of the strongest sectors in India leading to increasing unemployment rate which is a leading indicator for declining GDP ( the GDP numbers might have been kept artificially high to promote investor confidence)
3. Tech-based startups (including FInTech) are highly over-valued. Major investments in this sector are not delivering expected results and companies like TaxiforSure, Snapdeal, Flipkart, Ola, Grofers, Peppertap, Housing.com etc. have seen investment on their potential but there haven't been good returns in the past. Most rating agencies have already downgraded the valuation of these companies and some investors have written-off their loans.
In the period close to Q4'17 - Q1'18 major pullback is expected.