Liquidity, Herd Behavior, and the Importance of Market BalanceLiquidity can be one of the most frustrating aspects of trading. It often feels as though price is magnetically drawn to your stop loss the moment you place it. While this may seem intentional, it actually stems from a powerful psychological and structural force in the market: herd behavior .
No matter how unique your trading system may feel, chances are you're not the only one using it—or at least not the only one identifying the same key levels. Traders around the world are often taught similar risk management techniques, such as placing stop losses just beyond recent highs or lows. As a result, we unintentionally create liquidity pools —concentrated zones of clustered orders. This is the direct result of herd behavior : large groups of traders making similar decisions at the same levels.
As covered in our earlier publication, Redefining Trading Psychology , when stop losses or take-profit levels are hit, traders are forcibly exited from the market. If many traders are exiting simultaneously from the same level, it injects a burst of liquidity into the market. Market participants with large orders—like institutions or professional traders—rely on this liquidity to enter or exit positions without causing major slippage. Once these liquidity pockets are consumed, the market often stalls and enters consolidation .
These consolidation zones are more than just sideways price action; they are areas of equilibrium , where buying and selling pressure are balanced. No side dominates, and price fluctuates within a tight range. But equilibrium is temporary.
As momentum builds—either bullish or bearish—an imbalance emerges. This is typically driven by an excess of buyers or sellers overpowering the market. But momentum doesn’t last forever. Eventually, it fades, and the price reverts to a more balanced level—often retracing to a previous consolidation zone. These zones act as gravitational points that attract price back to them, offering traders a reliable reference for potential reversals or continuations.
Many traders get stopped out prematurely because they enter during imbalanced phases of the market—often as a result of following the herd. This creates unstable setups that are more likely to fail. The key to improving trade accuracy is to avoid reactive, herd-driven entries and instead focus on entering when the market has returned to a state of balance . Entering at the right moment—when the market is in balance—gives your trades a greater potential to move into profit quickly. This not only improves the quality of your entries but also increases the likelihood of success over time.
To support this approach, I’ve developed tools that help identify market balance and momentum shifts in real-time. Visit my TradingView profile, The_Forex_Steward , to access these indicators and gain deeper insights into timing entries with greater precision—away from the noise of the herd.
JPYGBP trade ideas
GBPJPY LONG & SHORT FORECAST Q2 W25 D19 Y25GBPJPY LONG & SHORT FORECAST Q2 W25 D19 Y25
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
Let’s see what price action is telling us today!
💡Here are some trade confluences📝
✅Daily order block
✅15' order block
✅Intraday breaks of structure
✅4H Order block
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
GBPJPY: Pullback From Trend Line 🇬🇧🇯🇵
I think that GBPJPY may bounce from a rising trend line
that I spotted on a daily time frame.
As a confirmation, I spotted 2 intraday bullish breakouts:
a violation of a resistance line of a falling channel
and a breakout of a neckline of a cup & handle pattern.
Goal - 195.0
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GBPJPY Bullish Setup: Reversal Brewing a Key Zone📈 **GBPJPY Bullish Setup: Reversal Brewing at Key Zone** 🔍
**Pair:** GBPJPY
**Timeframe:** 15m / 1H Confluence
**Bias:** Bullish (waiting for confirmation)
⚡️ **Key Technical Highlights:**
🔹 **1H Demand Zone** – Price is sitting inside a strong historical reversal area around **194.00–194.20**, where we've seen multiple prior bounces.
🔹 **Trendline Support** – Tapping a clean ascending 1H trendline that has held multiple times.
🔹 **Bullish Divergence (15m RSI)** – Momentum is shifting: while price made a lower low, RSI formed a higher low — classic divergence signaling potential reversal.
🔹 **Descending Channel Forming a Wedge** – Price action is coiling inside a falling wedge. Watching closely for a **bullish breakout** above channel resistance.
🔹 **Wick Rejections / Seller Exhaustion** – Repeated long wicks into the zone indicate sellers are losing steam.
🧠 **Bullish Setup Idea:**
✅ **Trigger:**
Look for a break above **194.80** (channel resistance + 0.0 fib)
Then a **higher low retest entry** near **194.40–194.50**
🎯 **Targets:**
* **TP1:** 195.28 – 195.50 (38.2%–50% fib + intraday resistance)
* **TP2:** 196.00 – 196.42 (78.6%–88.6% fib zone)
* **TP3:** 196.86 – 197.00 (full retracement + supply zone)
🛑 **Invalidation:**
* Break below **193.50 – 193.20** with bearish momentum
* RSI falling below 30 with strong bearish close
💬 Let me know if you're watching this level too — would love to hear your take!
\#GBPJPY #Forex #FXTrading #PriceAction #Divergence #BullishSetup #SmartMoney #SupplyAndDemand #TradingViewIdeas
GBP/JPY Testing Trendline SupportGBP/JPY is currently testing an ascending trendline around the 194.30 – 193.95 area. Price action suggests potential for a bullish bounce if the support holds.
Upside targets include 194.850 and 195.304, provided that the structure remains intact.
However, a confirmed break below 193.955 would invalidate the bullish scenario and potentially trigger further downside.
🔹 Support: 193.955
🔹 Resistance 1: 194.850
🔹 Resistance 2: 195.304
🔹 Structure: Trendline bounce
🔹 Timeframe: 1H
🔹 Bias: Bullish as long as 193.95 holds
This is a technical idea only – not financial advice.
GBP/JPY H1 | Rising into an overlap resistanceGBP/JPY is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 194.86 which is an overlap resistance.
Stop loss is at 195.43 which is a level that sits above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and a multi-swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 193.95 which is a swing-low support.
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GBPJPY BUY OR SELL IDEABased on HTF (Daily), the price is currently in an uptrend and approaching a previously broken weekly resistance level, which has now turned to support.
If the bullish trendline and support level are respected, a bullish candlestick signal would be a signal for a bullish move, while a break below the support level would be an indication of a fall to the next support area.
GJ June 18 UpdateWhile there's no confirmation yet for a reversal, I do see a **selling option**. However, a **buying option** is also present if the price first touches support. Ultimately, the price will reach my **target around 190.70** and continue beyond. The support zone for this will, of course, need to be broken.
GBP/JPY Technical Analysis – Targeting 198.80 on Trendline BreakGBP/JPY is currently trading around 194.75, with bullish momentum building after a clean trendline breakout and seems to be testing its support around 194.5 area with a clear market structure. The pair shows signs of institutional accumulation and a potential continuation toward the 198.80 target.
A downward sloping trendline, which capped price since late October 2024, has been decisively broken, indicating a change in sentiment.
Price formed a higher low around 193.62, which now serves as a protected low (your stop loss), supporting the idea of a bullish BOS (Break of Structure).
With momentum aligning and clean imbalance zones above, GBP/JPY could extend toward 198.80 and even further, which aligns with previous supply and fair value gap zones.
As long as price holds above 193.62, the bullish structure remains intact, with further upside likely as liquidity targets above 196.50 and 198.80 come into play.
GBPJPY: Long Trade Explained
GBPJPY
- Classic bullish setup
- Our team expects bullish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Long GBPJPY
Entry Point - 194.85
Stop Loss - 194.39
Take Profit - 195.71
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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GBPJPY Will Fall! Short!
Here is our detailed technical review for GBPJPY.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 194.806.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 193.727 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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GJ-Wed-18/06/25 TDA-Uncertainty looms, play it safe!Analysis done directly on the chart
Follow for more, possible live trades update!
Today topic: what's something you do outside
of trading that helps you trade?
For me example: I exercise, letting the oxygen
flow through the whole body. If you want to
perform great then not just your mind but also
your body is has to be trained.
Comment down below your opinion!
Active in London session!
Not financial advice, DYOR.
Market Flow Strategy
Mister Y
GBP_JPY RISING SUPPORT|LONG|
✅GBP_JPY is trading along the rising support
And as the pair will soon retest it
I am expecting the price to go up
To retest the supply levels above at 195.733
LONG🚀
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GBPJPY Wave Analysis – 17 June 2025- GBPJPY reversed from the resistance area
- Likely to fall to support level 193.65
GBPJPY currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance area between the pivotal resistance level 196.00 (which has been reversing the price from March) and the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from this resistance zone will most likely form the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bearish Engulfing - if the price closes today near the current levels.
Given the overbought daily Stochastic, the GBPJPY currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level at 193.65 (the low of the previous minor correction ii).