JPYUSD trade ideas
USDJPY| - Bullish Play Within Bearish HTF ContextHTF Overview (4H): Structure is still technically bearish, with buy-side liquidity (BSL) untouched and a major 4H supply OB unmitigated above. Expecting price to seek out that zone before any full reversal.
MTF Refinement (30M): Refined structure shows a potential bullish leg forming to push toward the 4H supply. Price is reaching for nearby sell-side liquidity (SSL), acting as inducement.
Execution Plan: Waiting for a clean sweep of SSL. Once that occurs and the 30M OB is mitigated, I’ll drop to LTF (1M/5M) to confirm bullish intent with CHoCH or BOS before executing a long.
Mindset: Playing the internal bullish wave with precision while respecting higher timeframe narrative. Quick to react if the HTF bias reasserts itself.
Bless Trading!
Heading into pullback resistance?The USD/JPY is rising towards the pivot, which is a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 148.44
1st Support: 143.24
1st Resistance: 151.23
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USDJPY 4Hour TF - July 13th, 2025USDJPY 7/13/2025
USDJPY 4Hour Neutral Idea
Monthly - Bullish
Weekly - Bearish
Daily - Bearish
4Hour - Bullish
Finally UJ is looking more clear. We’re now able to drop to the 4Hour instead of the Daily TF due to price action reaching a major zone of anticipated reactions.
As always we’re looking at two trade scenarios going into the week ahead:
Bullish Continuation - UJ is currently sitting at 147.500 resistance and closed there last week. Going into this week we could see the bullish trend continue but we would need to see a clear break of 147.500 resistance to gain confidence. Look for a higher low confirmed above 147.500 followed by strong bullish setups to enter long on. Look to target higher toward major resistance levels like 149.250 area.
Bearish Reversal: Despite the strong bullish momentum we saw from last week, a reversal is still possible as price action is near our 147.250 zone. In order to consider bearish setups we would need to see strong rejection from the current level of resistance. Look to target lower toward 145.000 support.
An Emerging ceiling in play for USDJPYCurrent levels are approaching to a multiple potential, and one very big, resistance area. Also move stochastic over these levels are rare. Closing over 147.50 on weekly is not seen since before April moves. But not discounting possibility of this move going over 148.00.
I'm operating with value areas above 147.80 for a short. Stops are well above 149.20. Targeting a pull back 142.80 area.
USD/JPY) LOGN TIME Analysis Read The captionSMC trading point update
Technical analysis of USD/JPY on the daily timeframe, highlighting a long-term downtrend reversal with potential for significant upside.
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Analysis Summary
Pair: USD/JPY
Timeframe: Daily
Current Price: 147.442
Bias: Bullish breakout from a descending wedge structure.
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Key Technical Insights
1. Descending Trendline Break:
Price has broken above the long-term downtrend line, signaling a reversal.
Breakout area is circled in yellow, confirming bullish intent.
2. Trendline & Structure Support:
Multiple rejections from the ascending support trendline (marked by green arrows) confirm accumulation and higher lows.
3. 200 EMA as Dynamic Resistance/Support:
Price is now above the 200 EMA (147.920) — a bullish signal, turning resistance into support.
4. RSI (14):
RSI at 62.99, approaching overbought territory, but still has room to push further.
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Target Point
Target: 158.951
Based on measured move from wedge breakout and historical resistance level.
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Trade Setup Idea
Direction Entry Stop-Loss Target
Buy 147.40–147.60 Below 145.80 158.95
Mr SMC Trading point
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Summary
This chart signals a major bullish breakout on USD/JPY, with the break of a year-long downtrend structure, reclaiming the 200 EMA. If this breakout sustains, price could aim for 158.95 in the coming weeks.
Please support boost 🚀 this analysis)
USDJPY LONG & SHORT – WEEKLY FORECAST Q3 | W29 | Y25
💼 USDJPY LONG & SHORT – WEEKLY FORECAST
Q3 | W29 | Y25
📊 MARKET STRUCTURE SNAPSHOT
USDJPY is currently reaching for a key higher time frame supply zone, looking for price action to show weakness at premium levels. Structure and momentum are now aligning for a short opportunity backed by multi-timeframe confluence.
🔍 Confluences to Watch 📝
✅ Daily Order Block (OB)
Looking for Strong reaction and early signs of distribution.
✅ 4H Order Block
Break of internal structure (iBoS) confirms a short-term bearish transition.
✅ 1H Order Block
📈 Risk Management Protocols
🔑 Core principles:
Max 1% risk per trade
Only execute at pre-identified levels
Use alerts, not emotion
Stick to your RR plan — minimum 1:2
🧠 You’re not paid for how many trades you take, you’re paid for how well you manage risk.
🧠 Weekly FRGNT Insight
"Trade what the market gives, not what your ego wants."
Stay mechanical. Stay focused. Let the probabilities work.
🏁 Final Thoughts from FRGNT
📌 The structure is clear.
The confluences are stacked.
Let execution follow discipline, not emotion.
USD/JPY "The Ninja Heist" – Bullish Loot Grab!🌟 Hey, Thieves & Market Bandits! 🌟
💰 Ready to raid the USD/JPY "The Gopher" vault? 💰
Based on 🔥Thief Trading Style🔥 (technical + fundamental heist analysis), here’s the master plan to swipe bullish profits before the market turns against us! Escape near the high-risk Yellow MA Zone—overbought, consolidation, and bear traps ahead! 💸 "Take the money and run—you’ve earned it!" 🏆🚀
🕵️♂️ Heist Strategy:
📈 Entry (Bullish Raid):
The vault’s unlocked! Buy any price—this heist is LIVE!
Pullback lovers: Set buy limits at recent/swing lows for extra loot.
🛑 Stop Loss (Escape Route):
Thief SL at recent/swing low (4H/Day trade basis).
Adjust based on your risk, lot size, and multiple orders.
🎯 Target (Profit Escape):
147.500 (or flee earlier if bears ambush!)
⚔️ Scalpers’ Quick Strike:
LONG ONLY! If rich, attack now. If not, join swing traders & rob slowly.
Trailing SL = Your bodyguard! 💰🔒
💥 Why This Heist?
USD/JPY "The Ninja" is bullish due to key factors—check:
📌 Fundamental + Macro + COT Report
📌 Quantitative + Sentiment + Intermarket Analysis
📌 Future Targets & Overall Score (Linkks In the profile!) 🔗🌍
🚨 Trading Alert (News = Danger!):
Avoid new trades during news—volatility kills!
Trailing SL saves profits on running positions.
💖 Support the Heist Team!
💥 Smash the Boost Button! 💥
Help us steal more money daily with Thief Trading Style! 🏆🚀
Stay tuned—another heist is coming soon! 🤑🎯
USD/JPY Profit Heist – Are You In or Missing Out?"🔥💰 "USD/JPY NINJA HEIST: Bullish Loot Before the Trap! (Thief Trading Style)" 💰🔥
🌟 Attention Market Robbers & Profit Takers! 🌟
🚨 Thief Trading Alert: USD/JPY "The Ninja" is primed for a BULLISH HEIST!
Based on our stealthy technical & fundamental analysis, we’re locking in a long entry strategy. The plan? Loot profits before the RED ZONE danger hits! Overbought? Maybe. Risky? Sure. But the real robbery happens before the bears wake up! 🏴☠️💸
🎯 ENTRY: The Vault is OPEN!
Buy Limit Orders: Swipe the dip on pullbacks or jump in at key swing lows.
Aggressive? Enter now & ride the wave!
🛑 STOP LOSS (Thief-Style Escape Plan):
Swing Low (5H TF): 143.600 (Adjust based on your risk & lot size!)
Multiple orders? Scale SL wisely—don’t get caught!
🎯 TARGETS:
Main Take-Profit: 151.000 (Or escape earlier if the trap triggers!)
Scalpers: Only play LONG—trail your SL & lock in quick loot!
📢 SCALPERS & SWING TRADERS:
Got deep pockets? Ride the wave now!
Small account? Join the swing heist & rob the trend slowly!
📈 WHY USD/JPY?
Bullish momentum + Macro/Fundamental tailwinds!
COT Report, Sentiment, & Intermarket Analysis all hint at more upside! go ahead to check 👉🔗🌏
⚠️ WARNING: NEWS = VOLATILITY!
Avoid new trades during high-impact news!
Trailing SL = Your best friend! Protect profits & avoid jail (stop-out)!
💥 BOOST THIS IDEA TO SUPPORT THE HEIST!
More boosts = More robberies = More profits for YOU!
Stay tuned—next heist coming soon! 🚀💰
🔥 Like, Share, & Follow for Daily Steals! 🔥
USDJPY M15 Support & Resistance Levels🚀 Here are some key zones I've identified on the 15m timeframe.
These zones are based on real-time data analysis performed by a custom software I personally developed.
The tool is designed to scan the market continuously and highlight potential areas of interest based on price action behavior and volume dynamics.
Your feedback is welcome!
USD JPY ACa possible scenario it should hit for tomorrow .
I'm so lost in this market nothing seem to work .still try to survive. a strategy that works for days or even a month dosent have a guarantee to work for next month ,every thing is like gamble . im trying so hard too many ways too see the holy grail yet till now i can say it with trust there is not a easy peasy holy grail of trading ... be ready to looose and be ready to maybe not to gain anything ,, this trading stuff is like an art as u drown in it it only cuase insanity . right now i gotta go ill use trading view as journal now on to see what im doing good luck have fun trading
USDJPY Analysis : Major Move Loading Towards Target Zone🕵️♂️ Overview
The USDJPY pair is approaching a critical turning point within a well-established descending channel structure. After several months of corrective movement and internal structure shifts, the market is now displaying multiple layers of confluence pointing toward an impending major reaction or reversal. Let’s break down this chart step by step.
🧱 Market Structure Analysis
🔹 Descending Channel:
The entire chart is governed by a broad descending channel, with price making lower highs and lower lows since early March.
Each touch of the channel support has led to a bounce, and the price is now once again near channel resistance, creating a possible reaction zone.
🔹 Volume Contraction Phase:
In the mid-section of the chart, we observe volume contraction, indicating liquidity drying up and buyers/sellers entering a phase of uncertainty.
This contraction is typical in accumulation or re-accumulation phases, which often precede strong impulsive moves — exactly what followed here.
🧩 Structural Breaks and Trendline Clarity
🔸 Minor Break of Structure:
A recent high was taken out in early July, marking a minor break of structure (BOS), showing the first signs of bulls taking short-term control.
🔸 Major Break of Structure:
A more significant high (marked on the chart) has also been broken, confirming a major BOS — this implies institutional positioning or a shift in market sentiment.
🔸 Trendline Break – Extra Confirmation:
The bullish push came after breaking a clean internal trendline, which acted as diagonal resistance.
Once this trendline broke, price aggressively accelerated upward — this is a classic market maker cycle (MMC) Phase 2 (expansion) move.
📍 Confluence at Next Reversal Zone (149.00 – 150.00)
The green highlighted zone is the next potential area for bearish pressure to return, based on:
Key Supply Zone: Historical area where sellers previously dominated.
Channel Resistance Confluence: Top of the descending channel aligns with this zone.
Psychological Level: 150.00 is a major psychological round number — often attracts profit-taking and institutional activity.
Fibonacci (if plotted): Likely 78.6% – 88.6% retracement from last swing high.
Overextended Rally: Price has rallied strongly since early July with very little correction — it’s approaching exhaustion.
🔄 Market Maker Cycle (MMC) Alignment
This move perfectly reflects the Market Maker Cycle:
Accumulation: During volume contraction phase.
Manipulation: Fakeouts near channel support to trap shorts.
Expansion: Break of structure + trendline, aggressive rally.
Distribution (Next): Likely to occur at the 149–150 zone with a sharp rejection.
🧠 Trader’s Plan – What to Look For
📈 If Bullish:
Targets: 148.80 to 149.80 zone
Hold until rejection signs (bearish candles, volume spikes, divergences)
SL: Below recent swing low/trendline (~146.00)
📉 If Bearish (After Rejection):
Watch for:
Strong bearish engulfing candle or shooting star
RSI/MACD divergence (not shown but suggested)
Break of short-term ascending trendline
Targets: Back toward 145.50 or mid-channel (dynamic)
🔖 Summary
USDJPY is showing clear signs of bullish exhaustion near the upper channel resistance and major structure levels. If price respects this zone (149–150), expect a healthy corrective leg or full reversal. Multiple layers of technical evidence, including structure breaks, trendline breach, and MMC phases, are aligning for a high-probability play.
This is a textbook setup for experienced traders watching key zones with proper confirmations.
USDJPY Is Very Bearish! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for USDJPY.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 147.419.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 146.283 level soon.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
USDJPY MULTI TIME FRAME ANALYSISHello traders , here is the full multi time frame analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions , the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. wait for more price action to develop before taking any position. I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied.
🧠💡 Share your unique analysis, thoughts, and ideas in the comments section below. I'm excited to hear your perspective on this pair .
💭🔍 Don't hesitate to comment if you have any questions or queries regarding this analysis.
USDJPY Outlook – Bearish Reversal Setup in PlayUSDJPY is currently trading around 147.423, sitting inside or just beneath a 4H supply zone / order block, which has historically acted as a strong resistance area.
From this level, I anticipate a bearish drop down to the 145.147 region as the first leg of correction. After reaching that zone, price could retrace slightly upward toward 145.727 — possibly reacting to an internal OB or FVG — before continuing its bearish move down to 143.804, which may serve as a deeper liquidity zone or demand area.
> 🔽 Initial drop target: 145.147
> 🔼 Expected minor retracement: 145.727
> 🔽 Final bearish target: 143.804
> 📍 Current price: 147.423
Confirmation setups like M patterns, bearish engulfing candles, or BOS with imbalance fills around these levels will strengthen the setup. Patience is key, especially when price sits at major OB zones.
📌 Risk Management Note:
This analysis is **not financial advice. Always trade with risk control and proper confirmation:
✔️ Risk only 1–2% per position
✔️ Use at least 1:2 RR setups
✔️ Always wait for clear price action confirmation
✔️ Never trade emotionally — let the setup come to you
USD/JPY Symmetrical Triangle Breakout.Hello traders,
Just sharing my idea of what might happen next based on the recent price movement.
After a long downtrend this pair started gaining strength after April 2025 and formed a symmetrical triangle.
We can clearly see the breakout on 9 July 2025.
Will this breakout continue ?
Well, its about to touch the 200 Ema only than we can confirm if the bullish momentum keep continue. Price might pullback.
This analysis is based on chart patterns and some indicators like EMA, RSI, MACD and Fibonacci.
Trading Style, Timeframe Compatibility & Reasonable RiskTrading Style & Timeframe Compatibility
When selecting a timeframe for your trading strategy, it's essential to understand how that timeframe interacts with your chosen approach. Not every timeframe works well with every style — and the reason is rooted in time itself.
Each strategy — scalping , day trading , intra-week trading , or swing trading — is defined by how long you intend to hold a position:
-Scalping involves entering and exiting within minutes.
-Day trading means you're flat by the end of the day.
-Intra-week trading covers trades held for several days, but typically wrapped within one or two weeks.
-Swing trading extends beyond that timeframe, sometimes lasting weeks to months.
So before anything else, your timeframe should reflect your intended holding period . If that alignment is off, the edge you're trying to build may be fundamentally flawed.
Timeframes and Institutional Risk
Here’s where it gets interesting: the lower the timeframe , the closer you are to current price action — and that proximity increases your exposure to short-term liquidity grabs by institutional players.
Institutions don’t just push price around randomly. They insert large capital into the market with calculated precision, typically aiming to sweep liquidity (aka stop hunts) before executing their real positions. But there's a limit: institutions can only inject so much money at a time before it becomes inefficient or risky for them.
This is where tools like the Institutional Sweep Zone indicator come into play. It estimates how far price can move given a range of institutional capital (e.g., $500M–$1B). It calculates the potential sweep distance based on the pair you're trading, and visually maps the zone where stops are most vulnerable.
For example:
A sweep zone that stretches 20 pips might represent the range where $1B could realistically push price.
If your stop is inside that range, you're at higher risk of getting swept.
If your stop is well outside of it (often found on higher timeframes), the risk decreases substantially — because it would require too much capital to reach your level.
So, higher timeframe strategy stop-losses tend to sit outside these high-risk zones naturally , making them less likely to be manipulated by institutional moves. That’s why:
-Lower timeframe = higher risk of being swept
-Higher timeframe = lower risk, higher survivability
-More Trades ≠ More Profit
One of the biggest traps new traders fall into is believing that more trades will generate more returns. In reality, more trades just amplify risk — especially when you’re relying on low timeframes that are constantly under pressure from liquidity sweeps and volatility.
Patience is a skill. Eager traders often gravitate to the 1-minute, 5-minute or 15-minute charts, thinking they’re catching more opportunities. In truth, they’re exposing themselves to more noise, more traps, and more stop-outs.
Final Thoughts
If you’re serious about aligning your strategy with institutional mechanics, be intentional about your timeframe. Think in terms of:
-Risk exposure to sweeps
-Capital required to invalidate your position
-Holding power relative to time classification
And remember: fewer, higher-quality trades on appropriate timeframes often outperform dozens of rushed trades on lower ones.
For more concepts like this — along with access to unique tools like the Institutional Sweep Zone — check out my TradingView page: The_Forex_Steward . If this post helped clarify your thinking, give it a boost to let others benefit too.