Wyckoff FCPO ProjectionTrade on our own risk. Just mind sharing. Drawing base on 15 minutes analysis. Without considering other factor. Hope u all can get some idea for next FCPO trading.
FCPO1! trade ideas
FCPO Week 35 2025: Retracement?The concept is that price didn't go up in a straight line. Therefore I'm expecting that price will retrace a bit towards 4330 area before continuing higher with 4600 as target. However if price fail to defend the support area (as shown in chart) then there is likelihood that price is going lower towards 4200.
Happy trading.
15082025 FCPO1! Daily ForecastWave 5(PURPLE)=Wave i(3)
From 4376 until 4455
Dari 4376 until 4474 (projected)
Previous wave
1) wave 4 (PURPLE)
From 4460 until 4376
From 4460 until 4420/4383 (projected)
Next wave
ii(3)
From 4455 until 4317/4279 (projected)
12/8/25 Bulls Need Follow-through Buying
Monday’s candlestick (Aug 11) was a big bull bar closing near its high.
In our last report, we said traders would see if the bears could create strong bear bars trading far below the 20-day EMA, or if the market would trade slightly lower, but lack follow-through selling (again), followed by a reversal above the 20-day EMA in the next few days instead.
The market formed a strong rally and retested the July 24 high.
The bulls want a retest of the July 24 high, followed by a strong breakout above and another strong leg up that lasts for several weeks.
They need to create follow-through buying over the next few days to increase the odds of another leg up.
The bears were unable to create follow-through selling in the last four selloff attempts (July 7, July 11, July 15, and July 22). August 4 was the case again.
They want the market to form a double top (vs Jul 24) and a failed breakout.
They want the move to lack follow-through buying, forming bear bars.
Production for August may be flat or down.
Refineries' appetite to buy looks decent recently.
Export: August export up 23% in the first 10 days.
The market formed a retest of the July 24 high. The buying pressure remains stronger (tight bull channel, strong bull bars) compared to the weaker selling pressure (no follow-through selling).
For tomorrow (Tuesday, Aug 12), traders will see if the bulls can create follow-through buying, even if it is only a bull doji. If the bulls can create strong follow-through buying over the next few days, the odds of another strong leg up increase.
Or will the bears be able to create a failed breakout, closing the candlestick as a strong bear bar instead?
Andrew
22/8/25 Minor PB, Bulls Want Retest Aug 19 High
Thursday’s candlestick (Aug 21) was an outside bear bar closing in its lower half with a long tail above.
In our last report, we stated that traders would observe whether the bulls could create a strong retest of the August 19 high, or if the bears would be able to establish a lower high (compared to August 19) and a second leg sideways to down.
The market traded higher but lacked follow-through buying. The bears got a second leg sideways to down.
The bulls want another strong leg up that lasts for several weeks.
They want any pullback to be weak and sideways, lacking follow-through selling, as has been the case with all recent pullbacks. So far, this appears to be the case.
They want a retest of the August 19 high followed by a strong breakout above it.
If the market trades lower, they want the 20-day EMA to act as support.
The bears want a reversal from a wedge pattern (June 20, July 24, and August 19), and a large double top bar flag with the February high.
At the least, they want a two-legged pullback.
If the market trades higher, they want it to stall below the August 19 high, forming a small double top.
They want the Feb high area to act as resistance.
They need to create strong follow-through selling to increase the odds of a reversal.
Production for August may be flat or down. Sept should be flat or down as well.
Refineries' appetite to buy remains decent.
Export: August export up 13% in the first 20 days.
So far, the buying pressure is stronger (consecutive bull bars) compared to the weaker selling pressure (bear bars with no follow-through selling).
The market formed a pullback after testing the February high.
Traders are wondering if the current pullback would be minor (lacking follow-through selling) like all recent pullbacks, or if the bears would finally be able to create strong consecutive bear bars instead? Traders will continue to monitor the next few days.
So far, the pullback has an overlapping range and appears to be minor.
For tomorrow (Friday, Aug 22), traders will see if the bulls can create a strong retest of the August 19 high. If they can, the weekly candlestick will close near its high, which will increase the odds of next week trading at least a little higher.
Or will the bears be able to get a lower high (vs Aug 19) and another sideways to down again? If the bears can get a strong bear bar, the weekly candlestick will close with a big bear body, which will reduce the recent bullishness.
Andrew
21/8/25 Weak PB So Far, Bulls Want Retest High
Wednesday’s candlestick (Aug 20) was a bear bar closing in its upper half with a long tail below.
In our last report, we said traders would see if the bears could create strong follow-through selling, or if the pullback phase would be weak and mostly sideways (overlapping candlesticks, long tails below bars, bull bars).
The market traded lower but reversed to close above the middle of its range. The pullback phase is still weak.
The bulls want another strong leg up that lasts for several weeks.
They want any pullback to be weak and sideways, lacking follow-through selling, as has been the case with all recent pullbacks. So far, this appears to be the case.
They want a retest of the August 19 high followed by a strong breakout above it.
If the market trades lower, they want the 20-day EMA to act as support.
The bears want a reversal from a wedge pattern (June 20, July 24, and August 19), and a large double top bar flag with the February high.
At the least, they want a two-legged pullback.
If the market trades higher, they want it to stall below the August 19 high, forming a small double top.
They want the Feb high area to act as resistance.
They need to create strong follow-through selling to increase the odds of a reversal.
Production for August may be flat or down. Sept should be flat or down as well.
Refineries' appetite to buy remains decent.
Export: August export up 13% in the first 20 days.
So far, the buying pressure is stronger (consecutive bull bars) compared to the weaker selling pressure (bear bars with no follow-through selling).
The market formed a pullback after testing the February high.
Traders are wondering if the current pullback would be minor (lacking follow-through selling) like all recent pullbacks, or if the bears would finally be able to create strong consecutive bear bars instead? Traders will continue to monitor the next few days.
For tomorrow (Thursday, Aug 21), traders will see if the bulls can create a strong retest of the August 19 high.
Or will the bears be able to get a lower high (vs Aug 19) and a second leg sideways to down instead?
Andrew
20/8/25 Traders Will See If Bears Can Create FT Selling
Tuesday’s candlestick (Aug 19) was an outside bear bar closing in its lower half with a long tail above.
In our last report, we traders would see if the bulls could create more follow-through buying or if the market would stall and form bear bars instead.
The market traded higher, testing the February high, but reversed into an outside bear bar instead.
The bulls want another strong leg up that lasts for several weeks.
They want any pullback to be weak and sideways, lacking follow-through selling like all recent pullbacks.
If the market trades lower, they want the 20-day EMA to act as support.
The bears want a reversal from a wedge pattern (Jun 20, Jul 24, and Aug 19), and a large double top bar flag with the February high.
At the least, they want a two-legged pullback.
They want the Feb high area to act as resistance. So far, the market is forming a pullback around this level.
They need to create strong follow-through selling to increase the odds of a reversal.
Production for August may be flat or down. Sept should be flat or down as well.
Refineries' appetite to buy remains decent.
Export: August export up 21% in the first 15 days.
So far, the buying pressure is stronger (consecutive bull bars) compared to the weaker selling pressure (bear bars with no follow-through selling).
The market is forming a pullback after testing the February high.
Traders are wondering if the current pullback would be minor (lacking follow-through selling) like all recent pullbacks, or if the bears would finally be able to create strong consecutive bear bars instead?
For tomorrow (Wednesday, Aug 20), traders will see if the bears can create strong follow-through selling.
Or if the pullback phase would be weak and mostly sideways (overlapping candlesticks, long tails below bars, bull bars)?
Andrew
18/8/25 The Bulls Need More FT Buying
Monday’s candlestick (Aug 18) was a bull doji following the gap up at the open.
In our last report, we stated that traders would assess whether the bulls could generate follow-through buying or if the market would trade higher but lack sustained follow-through buying strength.
The market opened higher, and the bears attempted to create a failed breakout; however, follow-through selling was limited.
The bulls got a retest and a breakout above the July 24 high with follow-through buying.
They want another strong leg up that lasts for several weeks.
They hope the gap up on Monday (Aug 18) will be a measuring gap, which will take the market to around 4900.
If there is any pullback, they want it to be weak and sideways.
The next target for the bulls are the Feb/Mar and 2024 highs.
The bears want a reversal from a wedge pattern (Jun 20, Jul 24, and Aug 18).
They want the Feb/Mar highs area to act as resistance.
They need to create strong consecutive bear bars closing near their lows to show they are back in control.
Production for August may be flat or down. Sept should be flat or down as well.
Refineries' appetite to buy looks decent still.
Export: August export up 21% in the first 15 days.
So far, the buying pressure is stronger (consecutive bull bars) compared to the weaker selling pressure (bear bars with no follow-through selling).
The market is still in the sideways to up phase.
For tomorrow (Tuesday, Aug 19), traders will see if the bulls can create more follow-through buying. If there is a pullback, they want it to be weak and sideways.
Or will the market stall and form bear bars instead?
Andrew
18/8/25 Bulls Need Follow-through Buying
Friday’s candlestick (Aug 15) was a bull bar closing near its high.
In our last report, we said the bulls wanted a strong bull bar, which will close the weekly candlestick near its high. If this is the case, next week may trade at least a little higher.
The market traded higher, and the weekly candlestick closed near its high.
The bulls got a retest and a breakout above the July 24 high with follow-through buying.
They want another strong leg up that lasts for several weeks.
If there is any pullback, they want it to be weak and sideways. This was the case with August 14.
The next target for the bulls is the Feb high.
The bears want a reversal from a wedge pattern (Jun 20, Jul 24, and Aug 15).
They want the Feb/Mar highs area to act as resistance.
They need to create strong consecutive bear bars closing near their lows to show they are back in control.
Production for August may be flat or down. Sept should be flat or down as well.
Refineries' appetite to buy looks decent recently.
Export: August export up 21% in the first 15 days.
The weekly candlestick closed near its high. The market may gap up on Monday. Small gaps usually close early.
The market should still trade at least a little higher.
For tomorrow (Monday, Aug 18), traders will see if the bulls can create follow-through buying.
Or will the market trade higher but lack sustained follow-through buying strength?
Andrew
FCPO 15Aug25IF market open below 4395 it will go down potentially below 4376 for liquidity grab. If open and stay above 4400 it may reach TP 4486 eventually
15/8/15 Can Bears Create Strong PB or Fail to Do So?
Thursday’s candlestick (Aug 14) was a bear bar closing in its lower half with a prominent tail below.
In our last report, we stated that traders would see if the bulls could create more follow-through buying or if the market would begin to stall and form a pullback instead.
The market formed a pullback, which overlaps the prior candlestick.
The bulls got a retest and a breakout above the July 24 high. They want another strong leg up that lasts for several weeks.
If there is any pullback, they want it to be weak and sideways.
The bears want a reversal from a wedge pattern (Jun 20, Jul 24, and Aug 13).
They want the Feb/Mar highs area to act as resistance.
They need to create strong consecutive bear bars closing near their lows to show they are back in control.
Production for August may be flat or down.
Refineries' appetite to buy looks decent recently.
Export: August export up 23% in the first 10 days.
The market formed a retest and breakout above the July 24 high with follow-through buying.
The market may be in the pullback phase. Traders will see if the bears can create follow-through selling or fail to do so.
For tomorrow (Friday, Aug 15), the bulls want a strong bull bar which will close the weekly candlestick near its high. If this is the case, next week may trade at least a little higher.
The bears want follow-through selling. They want a strong bear bar, which will cause the weekly candlestick to close with a long tail above, thereby reducing the recent bullish strength.
Andrew
14/8/25 Bulls Want Big Leg up With Small Pullbacks
Wednesday’s candlestick (Aug 13) was a bull bar closing slightly above the middle of its range with a long tail above.
In our last report, we stated that traders would see if the bulls could create more follow-through buying, or if the bears would be able to generate some selling pressure instead.
The market traded higher, and the bulls got some follow-through buying.
The bulls got a retest and a breakout above the July 24 high.
They want another strong leg up that lasts for several weeks.
If there is any pullback, they want it to be weak and sideways.
The bears were unable to create follow-through selling in the last four selloff attempts (July 7, July 11, July 15, and July 22). August 4 was the case again.
They want a reversal from a wedge pattern (Jun 20, Jul 24, and Aug 13).
They want the move to lack follow-through buying, forming bear bars.
The bears want the Feb/Mar highs area to act as resistance.
Production for August may be flat or down.
Refineries' appetite to buy looks decent recently.
Export: August export up 23% in the first 10 days.
The market formed a retest and breakout above the July 24 high with follow-through buying.
The buying pressure remains stronger (tight bull channel, strong bull bars) compared to the weaker selling pressure (no follow-through selling).
For tomorrow (Thursday, Aug 14), traders will see if the bulls can create more follow-through buying. If there is any pullback, traders will assess its strength, whether it will be strong or mostly weak and sideways.
Or will the market start to stall and form a pullback instead?
Andrew
13/08/25 (am session) FCPO1!13/08/25 (am session)
(am) Now Daily (D1):
Wave: sub Wave 3 (red)
From 4225 until 4455
From 4225 until 4502/4537 (projected)
From 4225 until 4714/4799 (projected)
Previous Wave:
Wave 2 (red)
From 4292 until 4225
Next wave,
wave ii(3) at H1
From 4314 until 4341 (projected)
13/8/25 Bulls Need More FT, Want Any PB to Be Weak
Tuesday’s candlestick (Aug 12) was a bull bar closing in its lower half with a long tail above.
In our last report, we stated that traders would observe whether the bulls could generate follow-through buying, even if it were only a bull doji, or if the bears would be able to create a failed breakout, closing the candlestick as a strong bear bar instead.
The market traded higher but closed off its high (long tail above candlestick). The bulls got follow-through buying.
The bulls got a retest and a breakout above the July 24 high.
They want another strong leg up that lasts for several weeks.
They need to create follow-through buying over the next few days to increase the odds of another leg up.
If there is any pullback, they want it to be weak and sideways.
The bears were unable to create follow-through selling in the last four selloff attempts (July 7, July 11, July 15, and July 22). August 4 was the case again.
They want a reversal from a wedge pattern (Jun 20, Jul 24, and Aug 12).
They want the move to lack follow-through buying, forming bear bars.
Production for August may be flat or down.
Refineries' appetite to buy looks decent recently.
Export: August export up 23% in the first 10 days.
The market formed a retest and breakout above the July 24 high. The buying pressure remains stronger (tight bull channel, strong bull bars) compared to the weaker selling pressure (no follow-through selling).
For tomorrow (Wednesday, Aug 13), traders will see if the bulls can create more follow-through buying. If there is any pullback, traders will assess its strength, whether it will be strong or mostly weak and sideways.
Or will the bears be able to create some selling pressure (strong bear bars) instead?
Andrew
11/8/25 Bulls Want Any Pullback to Be Weak
Friday’s candlestick (Aug 8) was a bull doji closing in its lower half with a long tail above.
In our last report, we said traders would see if the bulls could create a strong bull bar breaking above the August 5 high, or if the market would trade higher but stall around or below the August 5 high, closing with a long tail or a bear body instead.
The market tested near the Aug 5 high but reversed to close with a long tail above.
The bulls want any pullback to lack follow-through selling, similar to the last few pullbacks (July 7, July 11, July 15, and July 22). August 4 was the same.
They want a retest of the July 24 high, followed by a strong breakout above and another strong leg up that lasts for a few weeks.
They see the last 10 trading days simply as a minor pullback.
They need to create strong consecutive bull bars closing near their highs to increase the odds of another leg up.
The bears were unable to create follow-through selling in the last four selloff attempts (July 7, July 11, July 15, and July 22). August 4 was the case again.
They want the market to form a lower high (vs Jul 24) and a wedge bear flag (Jul 30, Aug 5, and Aug 8).
They need to create strong bear bars closing near their lows and trading below the 20-day EMA to show they are back in control.
Production for August may be flat or down.
Refineries' appetite to buy looks decent recently.
Export: August export up 23% in the first 10 days.
So far, the market has formed a sideways pullback holding above the 20-day EMA.
Traders are wondering if the pullback has alleviated the prior overbought condition.
The market has formed a trading range over the last 24 trading days. The market is currently trading around the middle of the trading range, which is an area of balance.
For tomorrow (Monday, Aug 11), traders will see if the bears can create strong bear bars trading far below the 20-day EMA.
Or will the market trade slightly lower, but lack follow-through selling (again), followed by a reversal above the 20-day EMA in the next few days instead?
Andrew
FCPO Week 33 2025: To continue higher towards 4500.It seems that the price has found support within the 4150 and 4200 area. For next week if price can break and close above 4300 another move higher is likely. Otherwise we will see more consolidation and this might lead to a test towards 4100.
8/8/25 Bulls Need Follow-through Buying
Thursday’s candlestick (Aug 6) was a bear bar closing in its lower half with prominent tails above and below.
In our last report, we stated that traders would determine whether the current pullback would remain sideways and overlap with Wednesday's range or if the bears would be able to create strong bear bars, closing below the 20-day EMA. The 20-day EMA could be a magnet.
The market formed a pullback testing the middle of the trading range and the 20-EMA. The candlestick was mostly overlapping with Wednesday's range.
The bulls want any pullback to lack follow-through selling, similar to the last few pullbacks (July 7, July 11, July 15, and July 22). August 4 was the same.
They want a retest of the July 24 high, followed by a strong breakout above to form the wedge pattern, with the first two legs being June 20 and July 24.
They see the last two days simply as a pullback testing the 20-day EMA. They want any pullback to be weak and sideways. So far, this is the case.
They need to create follow-through buying over the next few days to increase the odds of higher prices.
The bears were unable to create follow-through selling in the last four selloff attempts (July 7, July 11, July 15, and July 22). August 4 was the case again.
They want the market to form a lower high (vs Jul 24) and a double top bear flag (Jul 30 and Aug 5).
They need to create strong bear bars closing near their lows and trading below the 20-day EMA to show they are back in control.
Production for August may be flat or down.
Refineries' appetite to buy looks decent recently.
Export: August demand remains to be seen.
The market formed a minor pullback testing the bull trend line (Aug 4), and formed a higher low. Traders are wondering if the pullback has alleviated the prior overbought condition.
Moving forward, traders are wondering if the market will form a retest of the July 24 high followed by a breakout above. Or will the market form a lower high (Aug 5) and a double top bear flag (Jul 30 and Aug 5), followed by another leg down instead?
The market has formed a trading range over the last 24 trading days. The 20-day EMA is trading around the middle of the trading range and could be a magnet.
The last two days (Aug 5 and Aug 7) formed another smaller pullback, which stalled at the 20-day EMA.
The market is trading higher during Thursday night's market session.
The bulls want Friday's candlestick to close near its high, which will create a bullish weekly candlestick. If so, the odds will slightly favor next week trading at least a little higher.
The bears want the Friday candlestick to close bearish, so that the weekly candlestick will have a long tail above and close below the middle of its range.
For tomorrow (Friday, Aug 8), traders will see if the bulls can create a strong bull bar breaking above the August 5 high.
Or will the market trade higher, but stall around or below the August 5 high and close with a long tail or a bear body instead?
Andrew
070825 FCPO1! Daily forecastProbability of forecast
1.1 Wave micro iv (of i(5)@
1.2 Wave micro iv (of 4C Daily) @
1.3 Wave micro iv (B monthly)
Observe H1 support (4173):
If candle closed < 4173, trend shall reverse to corrective mode or downtrend
7/8/25 Weak Sideways PB or Retest 20-Day EMA?
Wednesday’s candlestick (Aug 5) was a bear doji closing in its upper half with a long tail below.
In our last report, we said traders would see if the bulls could create follow-through buying, even if it is just a bull doji, or if the market would reverse down sharply below the 20-day EMA instead.
The market formed a pullback. While it is not a follow-through bull bar / doji, there was also no sharp reversal down.
The bulls want any pullback to lack follow-through selling, similar to the last few pullbacks (July 7, July 11, July 15, and July 22). August 4 was the same.
They want a retest of the July 24 high, followed by a strong breakout above to form the wedge pattern, with the first two legs being June 20 and July 24.
They see Wednesday (Aug 6) as a pullback. They want any pullback to be weak and sideways.
They need to create strong bull bars over the next few days to increase the odds of higher prices.
If the market trades lower, they want the 20-day EMA or the bull trend line to act as a support level.
The bears were unable to create follow-through selling in the last four selloff attempts (July 7, July 11, July 15, and July 22). August 4 appears to be the case again.
They want the market to form a lower high (vs Jul 24) and a double top bear flag (Jul 30 and Aug 5).
They need to create strong bear bars closing near their lows and trading below the 20-day EMA to show they are back in control.
Production for August may be flat or down.
Refineries' appetite to buy looks decent recently.
Export: August demand remains to be seen.
The market formed a pullback testing the bull trend line (Aug 4) and formed a higher low.
So far, the pullback appears to be minor. Traders are wondering if the pullback has alleviated the prior overbought condition.
Moving forward, traders are wondering if the market will form a retest of the July 24 high followed by a breakout above. Or will the market form a lower high (Aug 5) and a double top bear flag (Jul 30 and Aug 5), followed by another leg down instead?
The market has formed a trading range over the last 23 trading days. The 20-day EMA is around the middle of the trading range and could be a magnet.
For tomorrow (Thursday, Aug 7), traders will see if the current pullback will remain sideways and overlap with Wednesday's range. If this remains the case, we would likely see a retest of the July 24 high after the pullback phase.
Or will the bears be able to create strong bear bars closing below the 20-day EMA instead? If this is the case, it could mean the bulls are not as strong as they had hoped, and things can become dangerous.
Andrew
6/8/25 Follow-through Buying or Reverse Down?
Tuesday’s candlestick (Aug 5) was a big bull bar closing near its high and far above the 20-day EMA.
In our last report, we said traders would see if the bulls could create a strong bull bar closing above the 20-day EMA, or if the market would trade higher but close with a long tail above and below the middle of its range instead.
The market formed a strong rally for the day.
The bulls want any pullback to lack follow-through selling, similar to the last few pullbacks (July 7, July 11, July 15, and July 22). So far, this is the case. There is limited follow-through selling again.
They see the recent move as a two-legged pullback. They want the 20-day EMA or the bull trend line to act as a support level. So far, this appears to be the case.
They want a retest of the July 24 high followed by a strong breakout above.
They want another strong leg up to form the wedge pattern, with the first two legs being Jun 20 and July 24.
They hope the pullback has alleviated the recent overbought condition.
They need to create follow-through buying over the next few days to increase the odds of higher prices.
The bears got a pullback from a large wedge pattern (May 15, Jun 20, and Jul 24) and an embedded wedge (Jul 14, Jul 18, and Jul 24).
Previously, the bears were unable to create follow-through selling in the last four selloff attempts (July 7, July 11, July 15, and July 22). Seems to be the case again this time.
They want the market to form a lower high (vs Jul 24) and a double top bear flag (Jul 30 and Aug 5).
They need to create strong bear bars closing near their lows and trading below the 20-day EMA to show they are back in control.
Production for August may be flat or down.
Refineries' appetite to buy looks decent recently.
Export: August demand remains to be seen.
The market formed a pullback testing the bull trend line (Aug 4) and formed a higher low.
Traders will assess the strength of the pullback to determine whether it will be a minor correction or a more significant event. So far, the pullback appears to be minor.
Traders are wondering if the pullback has alleviated the prior overbought condition.
Will the market form a retest of the July 24 high and a breakout above? Or will the market form a lower high and a double top bear flag, followed by another leg down instead?
For tomorrow (Wednesday, Aug 6), traders will see if the bulls can create follow-through buying, even if it is just a bull doji.
Or will the market reverse down sharply below the 20-day EMA instead? If this is the case, it could mean the bulls are not as strong as they had hoped, and things can become dangerous.
Andrew
FCPO should reverse as it reached 2.618
### **1. Overall Market Context**
* Current price: **4,285 MYR**
* Recent high: **4,286 MYR**
* Market shows a **sharp rebound** after a 5-wave downward Elliott sequence.
* Current trend: **Short-term bullish reversal** after completing a possible Elliott Wave 5 down.
---
### **2. Elliott Wave Count**
* You have marked **i – ii – iii – iv – v** indicating a completed **5-wave downtrend**.
* After the final **wave v bottom around 4,169 MYR**, price has reversed sharply.
* This is consistent with the **Elliott Wave principle** where after a 5-wave impulse in one direction, a **corrective phase or reversal** usually follows.
---
### **3. Fibonacci Analysis**
* Fibonacci retracement and extension levels are plotted:
* **0% at 4,169 MYR** (bottom of wave v)
* **Fib retracement cluster:**
* 0.382 ≈ 4,180
* 0.5 ≈ 4,192
* 0.618 ≈ 4,197
* 0.786 ≈ 4,204
* Price **broke above 1.0 extension (4,214 MYR)** and accelerated.
* **Current rally approaching Fib 2.618 extension ≈ 4,287 MYR**
* Market is **testing a key resistance zone**.
---
### **4. Support & Resistance**
* **Immediate resistance**: 4,285 – 4,287 MYR (Fib 2.618 extension + prior swing high)
* **Next resistance**: 4,332 MYR (Fib 3.618 extension)
* **Immediate support**: 4,221 MYR (previous breakout + 1.0 fib extension)
* **Key support**: 4,200 MYR (0.786 retracement level)
---
### **5. Volume & Momentum**
* **Volume spike** visible on the rally from 4,170 to 4,285 MYR.
* Indicates **strong short-covering or new buying interest**.
* Momentum is **overextended**, suggesting potential short-term pullback if resistance holds.
---
### **6. Trading Plan (Short-Term)**
* **Bullish bias** above 4,221 MYR.
* **Potential pullback** to 4,242–4,221 MYR zone if current rally faces profit-taking.
* **Upside target** if breakout sustains: 4,332 MYR (Fib 3.618 extension).
* **Invalidation level**: Below 4,200 MYR, momentum likely fades and market may retest 4,169 MYR.
---
### **Summary**
* Market has **completed a 5-wave downtrend** and is in a **strong corrective rally**.
* Price is testing **key resistance at 4,285–4,287 MYR**.
* **Watch for either breakout continuation to 4,332 MYR or short-term retracement** toward 4,221–4,242 MYR.
5/8/25 Can Bulls Get A Bull Bar Above 20-Day EMA?
Monday’s candlestick (Aug 4) was a bull doji closing around the middle of its range with prominent tails.
In our last report, we said the market may gap down at the open. Traders would see if the bears could create follow-through selling, closing the day near its low, or if the market would lack follow-through selling and close with a long tail below or a bull body instead.
The market gapped down and traded lower, but the follow-through selling was limited, closing the day with a bull body.
The bulls want any pullback to lack follow-through selling, similar to the last few pullbacks (July 7, July 11, July 15, and July 22).
They see the current move as a two-legged pullback. They want the 20-day EMA or the bull trend line to act as a support level. So far, this appears to be the case.
They want another strong leg up to form the wedge pattern, with the first two legs being Jun 20 and July 24.
They need to create follow-through buying over the next few days to increase the odds of higher prices.
The bears want a reversal from a large wedge pattern (May 15, Jun 20, and Jul 24) and an embedded wedge (Jul 14, Jul 18, and Jul 24).
Previously, the bears were unable to create follow-through selling in the last four selloff attempts (July 7, July 11, July 15, and July 22). Would it be the case again this time?
If the market trades higher, they want another leg down to form the wedge pattern (the first two legs being Jul 29 and Aug 4).
They need to create consecutive bear bars closing near their lows and trading below the 20-day EMA to show they are back in control.
Production for August may be flat or down.
Refineries' appetite to buy looks decent recently.
Export: August demand remains to be seen.
Previously, the buying pressure was slightly stronger than the selling pressure, but not in an overwhelming way yet (no strong consecutive bull bars closing near their highs).
The move up lasted a long time without a significant pullback. The market may have to form a pullback before it moves higher again. The pullback phase is still underway.
Traders will assess the strength of the pullback to determine whether it will be a minor correction or a more significant event. So far, the pullback appears to be minor.
The bears need to create follow-through selling to show they are back in control, something they couldn't do in the last few pullbacks (July 7, July 11, July 15, and Jul 22). So far, the follow-through selling still appears to be limited
For tomorrow (Tuesday, Aug 5), traders will see if the bulls can create a strong bull bar closing above the 20-day EMA.
Or will the market trade higher but close with a long tail above and below the middle of its range instead?
Andrew
4/8/25 Can Bears Create FT Selling or Not?
Friday’s candlestick (Aug 1) was a bull bar closing bear its high with a long tail below.
In our last report, we said traders would see if the bears could create a strong follow-through bear bar closing near its low, or if the market would trade lower, but close with a long tail below or a bull body instead.
The market traded lower but reversed to close with a bull body and a long tail below.
The bulls want any pullback to lack follow-through selling, similar to the last few pullbacks (July 7, July 11, July 15, and July 22).
They see the current move as a two-legged pullback. If the market trades lower, they want it to lack follow-through selling.
They want the 20-day EMA or the bull trend line to act as a support level.
They want another strong leg up to form the wedge pattern, with the first two legs being Jun 20 and July 24.
The bears want a reversal from a large wedge pattern (May 15, Jun 20, and Jul 24) and an embedded wedge (Jul 14, Jul 18, and Jul 24).
Previously, the bears were unable to create follow-through selling in the last four selloff attempts (July 7, July 11, July 15, and July 22).
They want another leg down to form the wedge pattern (first two legs being Jul 29 and Aug 1). The market may open lower on Monday, creating the 3rd leg down.
They need to create consecutive bear bars closing near their lows and trading below the 20-day EMA to show they are back in control.
Production for August may be flat or down.
Refineries' appetite to buy looks decent recently.
Export: Perhaps about -9% in July. August demand remains to be seen.
So far, the buying pressure is slightly stronger than the selling pressure, but not in an overwhelming way yet (no strong consecutive bull bars closing near their highs).
However, the move up has lasted a long time without a significant pullback. The market may have to form a pullback before it moves higher again. The pullback phase is still underway.
Traders will assess the strength of the pullback to determine whether it will be a minor correction or a more significant event. So far, the pullback appears to be minor.
The bears need to create follow-through selling to show they are back in control, something they couldn't do in the last few pullbacks (July 7, July 11, July 15, and Jul 22).
For tomorrow (Monday, Aug 4), the market may gap down at the open. Traders will see if the bears can create follow-through selling, closing the day near its low.
Or will the market open lower, but lack follow-through selling and close with a long tail below or a bull body instead?
Andrew
