Market insights
IREN | WeeklyNASDAQ:IREN — Quantum Model Projection
Technical Update — Bullish Alt. Scenario Weekly
As outlined in previous analyses, Intermediate Wave (3) has corrected to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement, transitioning into Intermediate Wave (4), and is now firmly supported by the equivalence lines at the apex.
If the structure holds, the projected extension of Intermediate Wave (5) could carry price toward the Fibonacci extension target ➤ $431 , marking the trend upside of Primary Wave ⓷.
🔖 This outlook aligns with my bullish BTC scenario, which I’ve been projecting since Nov. 15, during BTC’s decline, as a potential trend reversal.
🔖 The outlook is based on insights from my Quantum Models framework. Within this methodology, Q-targets are defined as high-probability possibilities generated by the confluence of equivalence lines. These equivalence lines also act as structural anchors, shaping the internal geometry of the model and guiding the evolution of alternative paths as price action progresses.
$IREN, bullish end of the week doesn't change bigger picture.NASDAQ:IREN , bullish end of the week doesn't change bigger picture. High probability of extended (wide) trading range.
In 2026 investors will find out that Microsoft's pre payment wasn't enough and board will decide to dump more new shares on investors.
Mark this post📌
$IREN: have completed 5 waves. In ABC correctionNASDAQ:IREN : the breakdown of a descending triangle has a projected downside target just below the 200 DMA.
I was hoping the correction is a Wave 4. But the break yesterday signals this is an ABC correction of a larger degree.
With the current market condition, NASDAQ:IREN will be punished a lot.
I do have long term conviction so I'm holding. I'll probably sell some covered calls.
IREN - Bottom is in (Maybe?)IREN looks to have recently finished an expanded flat correctional, oh no recent news of bonds and potential share dilution for selling shares for financing? Short term downside sell the news event, use it for the perfect entry that it's giving us.
Keeping stoploss at $39.55, betting on a higher low forming and full recapture, this is a bit risky given the significant VWAP and VPR resistance above us, so leaning more on my wave-count here than anything else.
Wave-Count Confidence: Average
IREN's Correction Within a Stellar Long-Term UptrendIris Energy Limited (IREN) is experiencing a period of consolidation and corrective pressure following its meteoric rise earlier in the year. The stock is currently down 2.7% in today's session, trading at $42.67. However, this recent pullback must be viewed within the broader, explosive context of its performance over the past nine months. Despite the current weakness, IREN still commands an astounding year-to-date gain of over 532%, firmly establishing it as one of the market's standout performers for the period.
The stock's technical picture illustrates a clear transition from a parabolic rally to a phase of digestion and support-testing. After reaching an all-time high of $76.87 on November 5, the equity has undergone a significant but orderly retracement. It has since entered a critical zone, where it is now testing and consolidating around a major support floor near the $40 level. This price point represents a key psychological and technical area where buyers have previously stepped in, and its defense is crucial for maintaining the longer-term bullish structure.
Adding to the near-term headwind is the dynamic resistance presented by the stock's descending 20-day moving average. This short-term trend indicator, which had previously served as support during the uptrend, has now flipped roles. It is curving downward and capping recent rally attempts, acting as an overhead ceiling that reinforces the corrective phase. A decisive break back above this moving average would be an early technical signal that the immediate selling pressure is abating and that the stock may be ready to stabilize.
In summary, while IREN is navigating a predictable and healthy correction after its historic run—facing defined technical resistance from its 20-day moving average—the overarching narrative remains overwhelmingly bullish. The primary focus for investors is whether the critical $40 support zone will hold. A successful defense of this level could lay the groundwork for the next leg higher, allowing the stock to absorb its gains and build a new foundation from which to advance, still carrying its remarkable 532% lead for the year.
Faces Renewed Selling Pressure Below $40Current Price: $39.92
Direction: SHORT
CRITICAL: You MUST choose either LONG or SHORT. NEUTRAL is FORBIDDEN and will cause your post to be rejected.
Confidence Level: 64% (moderate conviction driven by short-term technical weakness, ongoing profit-taking, and limited bullish follow-through despite strong headlines)
Targets:
- T1 = $38.20
- T2 = $36.50
Stop Levels:
- S1 = $41.50
- S2 = $43.20
**Wisdom of Professional Traders:**
This setup is built on the collective wisdom of professional traders, not a single opinion. Several traders are framing Iris Energy as a stock still in digestion mode after an explosive 2025 rally. Even with sharp green days, the dominant tone I’m seeing is caution. Traders continue to describe the recent bounce as a reaction inside a broader pullback rather than the start of a fresh uptrend.
What matters most to the trading crowd is behavior near resistance. Multiple traders highlighted that price has struggled to hold above the low $40s, and until that changes, short-term bias remains skewed to the downside. That trader consensus is why a SHORT position makes more sense than chasing momentum here.
**Key Insights:**
Here’s the main driver behind this trade. Iris Energy is still trading well below its short-term moving averages, and momentum indicators remain weak. Several traders pointed out that even after an 11% daily pop, the structure hasn’t flipped bullish. Lower highs remain intact, which usually invites sellers back in.
Another recurring theme is positioning. After a more-than-200% gain over the past year, many traders see plenty of room for continued profit-taking. That doesn’t kill the long-term story, but it does matter a lot for this week’s trade. In the short run, supply keeps showing up on rallies.
**Recent Performance:**
You can see this clearly in recent price action. Iris Energy fell more than 50% from its highs before staging a sharp rebound. The latest bounce was strong, but it followed heavy selling and hasn’t yet broken the broader short-term downtrend. Over the last few weeks, price action still reflects distribution rather than aggressive accumulation.
**Expert Analysis:**
Several professional traders are watching the $41 to $43 zone closely. This area keeps coming up as a key ceiling where sellers regain control. On the downside, traders frequently referenced the high $30s as a likely magnet if momentum fades again. That lines up cleanly with the $38.20 and $36.50 targets for this week.
What caught my attention is that even traders who are structurally bullish on the company long term are staying defensive in the near term. That split between long-term optimism and short-term caution is exactly the kind of environment where SHORT trades can still work.
**News Impact:**
The news flow is undeniably bullish on a longer horizon. The $9.7B Microsoft contract, aggressive AI cloud expansion plans, and strong revenue growth are real positives. But traders are separating story from timing. Short-term concerns around dilution from the $2.3B convertible notes and heavy capital expenditures are weighing more heavily than the headline wins this week.
**Trading Recommendation:**
Putting it all together, I’m staying SHORT on Iris Energy for this week. I’m targeting a pullback toward $38.20 first, with $36.50 as a secondary objective if selling pressure accelerates. Risk is tightly defined above $41.50, with a hard stop at $43.20 if price proves the trader consensus wrong. Confidence sits at 64% given the strong long-term narrative, but the short-term trader behavior and chart structure still favor downside before any sustainable rebound.
$IREN daily ChartNASDAQ:IREN is heading back down toward the key support at $39.92, a level that has already been tested three times.
This will show whether it’s a true rock-bottom support…
or if price finally gives in and breaks through it.
Watching this level closely — fourth tests don’t always hold.
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$IRENIn a bold strategic move to solidify and fund its pivot from cryptocurrency mining to artificial intelligence infrastructure, Iren executed a massive $3.6 billion capital raise on December 3rd. This complex financing package, structured through both equity and long-term convertible debt, is designed to provide the low-cost capital necessary for its aggressive AI expansion while meticulously managing the dilution for existing shareholders. The market responded positively to the news, with Iren's stock surging 6.9% on the day of the announcement, signaling approval for the company's refined financial strategy.
The capital raise is bifurcated into two primary components, each serving a distinct purpose. The first is a $2 billion private offering of convertible notes, divided into two series: $1 billion with a 0.25% coupon due in 2032, and another $1 billion with a 1.00% coupon due in 2033. These notes provide Iren with long-dated, exceptionally low-cost capital. Crucially, the conversion price for both series is set at approximately $51.40 per ordinary share, representing a significant 25% premium to Iren's closing price of $43.68 on December 3rd. This high conversion barrier delays potential equity dilution. Furthermore, Iren has entered into "capped call" transactions, which are derivative instruments that effectively raise the share price at which dilution would meaningfully begin to $82.24 per share, offering substantial additional protection to current stockholders.
The second, parallel component is a $1.632 billion direct equity offering, where 39.7 million shares were sold at $41.12 each. A key strategic rationale for this equity raise is to address and eliminate older, more dilutive obligations. The proceeds are earmarked to repurchase and extinguish the company's existing convertible notes maturing in 2029 and 2030, which carry far lower conversion prices of $13.64 and $16.81, respectively. By clearing these "overhang" notes from its balance sheet using freshly raised equity, Iren is proactively streamlining its capital structure and removing a source of future dilution that was priced at a steep discount to the current market.
If noteholders exercise their option to purchase an additional $150 million in each series of the new convertible notes, the total gross proceeds could reach approximately $2.27 billion. Iren intends to use these funds, after covering the $174.8 million cost of the capped calls, to repurchase other portions of its existing debt and, most importantly, to invest in the rapid expansion of its AI data center infrastructure.
This colossal fundraising effort underscores Iren's determined transformation. Formerly an Australian Bitcoin mining leader, the company has strategically redirected its substantial energy assets and operational expertise toward the high-growth AI infrastructure sector over the past year—a pivot reflected in a 200% increase in its stock price during that period. The company is leveraging its core strength: access to immense power resources. It currently controls 2.9 gigawatts of grid-connected power across North America and operates 810 MW of active data centers. A landmark validation of its new direction is a five-year, $9.7 billion GPU cloud services contract with Microsoft, under which Iren will supply AI computing capacity powered by NVIDIA's advanced GB300 chips from its 750-megawatt campus in Texas.
Despite this strong strategic positioning, Iren's stock, like many in the high-flying AI sector, has not been immune to volatility. It recently faced a pullback, declining 36% over the past month and remaining down approximately 11% for the week, partly driven by broader market fears surrounding the sustainability of AI investment valuations.
From a technical analysis perspective, this recent sell-off brings key support levels into focus. Should the price action breach its immediate or main support level, analysts would then closely monitor the next major floor, identified as Support 2. A successful hold at this secondary support zone could provide a foundation for the stock to consolidate and potentially rebound, as the market continues to digest the implications of Iren's strengthened balance sheet and its multi-billion-dollar bet on the future of AI compute. The successful closing of these offerings, expected on December 8th subject to customary conditions, will mark a critical milestone in Iren's journey to establish itself as a next-generation AI infrastructure leader.
$IREN: Wave 5 up to comeNASDAQ:IREN : I count IREN to have completed 3 waves up and is now in Wave 4 correction. Wave 4 has been an expanded flat. CD = 1.382 AB is achieved. Although CD = 1.618 AB is the most common, however, the yellow trendline and 100 DMA are providing support so it's likely that CD = 1.382 AB is it.
I have a position.
IREN | WeeklyNASDAQ:IREN — Technical Update
Following a 15% pullback today, IREN is holding near the equivalence-line apex — a major support zone outlined on the chart since November 15.
Trend Analysis
As shown on the chart, price action has continued to tighten within the space between the resistance and support equivalence-line apexes since November 17. The reaction at this key zone should provide clarity on whether the broader uptrend is ready to resume.
🔖 This outlook is based on insights from my Quantum Models framework. Within this methodology, Q-targets are defined as high-probability possibilities generated by the confluence of equivalence lines. These equivalence lines also act as structural anchors, shaping the internal geometry of the model and guiding the evolution of alternative paths as price action progresses.
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NASDAQ:IREN #RenewableEnergy
$IREN: A Period of Consolidation with Defined Risk ParametersNot much change on $IREN. The price action for NASDAQ:IREN currently reflects a period of lateral consolidation and equilibrium, with neither bulls nor bears establishing clear dominance in the near term. This pause follows previous volatility and represents a critical juncture where the asset is building energy for its next significant directional move. While there have been no major fundamental catalysts to alter the overarching narrative recently, the technical framework provides clear levels to monitor for the next phase.
Key Technical Levels and Scenarios
The market structure is defined by two primary support zones, which will act as the battlefield for control.
Immediate Bull Line (Support 1): This is the first and most crucial level of defense for the bullish thesis. A sustained hold above this zone suggests that underlying demand remains intact and that the consolidation is merely a pause within a larger positive trend. It represents the line where buyers have historically stepped in.
Secondary Support (Support 2): This lower level represents a more significant technical and psychological area. A breakdown below Support 1 would shift market sentiment negatively, increasing the likelihood of a test at Support 2. A successful hold here would indicate a deeper, but still valid, correction. However, a failure at this second tier would signal a more profound deterioration of the bullish structure and could open the door to further declines.
Strategic Outlook and Profit-Taking Horizon
Despite the current quietude, the broader strategic outlook maintains a bullish bias contingent on holding key supports. The consolidation is viewed not as a reversal of trend, but as a necessary period of digestion.
The primary upside objective remains a take-profit target in the vicinity of $60. This level is derived from a combination of technical measurements, including previous chart structure, Fibonacci extensions, and the implied momentum of the prior trend. A successful rally from either Support 1 or a robust rebound from Support 2 would project price action toward this target zone.
Conclusion
In essence, NASDAQ:IREN is in a holding pattern. "Not much change" signifies a buildup of potential energy. Traders and investors should now watch for a decisive break from this equilibrium, with a close watch maintained on Support 1 as the immediate bellwether. A hold there keeps the path to the $60 target clear, while a break lower would pivot focus to the durability of Support 2 and necessitate a recalibration of the near-term timeline for upward movement.
IREN Well overextended.... deeper pullback before upsideNASDAQ:IREN Price has overextended in a macro wave 3, the strongest and most powerful move described as a “wonder to behold” by Elliotticians. Novice investors are likely to get over-confident in these conditions, enter without risk management and keep chasing the price upwards only to be underwater when it turns around.
Profit taking appears to be taking place. I have closed my positions and am waiting for re-entry. The weekly pivots have been run.
Initial downside targets for wave (4) have been hit $39, the next is 0.382, $26.43. Expect shorts to pile in, adding to any downside momentum.
In the long term, we have higher to go in wave (5).
🎯 Terminal target for the business cycle could see prices as high as $124 based on daily pivots
📈 Weekly RSI hit overbought with no divergence
👉 Analysis is invalidated if we continue into price discovery
Safe trading
$IREN Weekend analysis - Nov 30th, 2025NASDAQ:IREN got rejected at the anchored VWAP from the 5/11 pivot (around 51.46–53.63) after bouncing off the previous S/R zone.
For the upside move to continue, the price needs to get back above that AVWAP area and the 50DMA (54.85) - both levels line up nicely. If it can reclaim and close above that zone, the next leg up could target 65.8 - 68.3.
MACD is curling up and looks close to a bullish crossover, which supports the idea of more upside. If price holds above the AVWAP on a reclaim, that’s where I might look for an entry.
IREN, still lower to go...NASDAQ:IREN wave 4 appears to want one more pusher lower towards the daily 200EMA and 0.382 Fibonacci retracement.
Price has broken its uptrend on bearish divergence and is yet to show strong support, suggesting we continue lower next week.
📈 Daily RSI has printed a bullish divergence, but not from oversold
👉 Continued downside has a target of the daily 200EMA, $26.75
Safe trading






















