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$QQQ Update & Charting"My 5 year plan for NASDAQ's ETQ (QQQ)" Update: Nasdaq's ETF NASDAQ:QQQ , has a historic support on the weekly 200 Moving average (MA) as shown as the dark blue line-indicator. I will do a brief TA breakdown of the indicators, charting & future steps. At point (A), we visualize the start of a zone-block & trendline rejection zones, which will later become a breakout point and wick support on point (B) in pair with a 200 MA indicator support zone. Now at point (B), we also see the same 200 MA indicator support zone, followed by a previous support zone-block visualized by a left arrow. Finally on point (C), we observe price action find support at point A's zone-block & MA zone, after rejection by 50 MA. What to expect: After APR 25, we see bullish price action and can expect to hit 'target', calculated by FIB retracements. We are visualizing this chart to foresee bearish price action that will trigger buy-limits at both buy zones (555.60-493.80), with a trailing stop-loss at 388.00, being activated at 400.00-407.00 zone-block. Indicators & Tools: 200 & 50 SMA, FIB RETRACEMENT (-0.618, -27, 0, 0.5, 0.618, 0.786, 1), rectangle (support/resistance/buy-zone) & trendline. Below is the link to the original idea.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by NorthernEdgeGroup
Technologies and Innovations in the Global Market1. Digital Transformation and Industry 4.0 One of the most significant technological trends in the global market is digital transformation, often encapsulated under the concept of Industry 4.0. This term refers to the integration of digital technologies, the Internet of Things (IoT), artificial intelligence (AI), robotics, and big data analytics into industrial processes. By connecting machines, systems, and data, businesses can optimize production, improve efficiency, and reduce costs. In manufacturing, smart factories equipped with sensors and AI-driven analytics allow real-time monitoring of operations, predictive maintenance of machinery, and adaptive production lines. These innovations enable companies to respond rapidly to market changes, reduce waste, and customize products according to consumer preferences, a trend known as mass personalization. 2. Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Artificial intelligence has become a central pillar of innovation across multiple sectors. Machine learning, natural language processing, and computer vision technologies are being deployed in industries ranging from finance and healthcare to retail and logistics. In finance, AI algorithms assist in fraud detection, risk assessment, and automated trading. Healthcare benefits from AI-powered diagnostic tools, predictive analytics for patient care, and drug discovery processes accelerated through computational models. Retailers leverage AI for personalized marketing, demand forecasting, and inventory management. The integration of AI into daily operations has enabled companies to make data-driven decisions faster and with greater accuracy. 3. Blockchain and Decentralized Systems Blockchain technology, initially associated with cryptocurrencies, has evolved into a transformative innovation for the global market. It provides a secure, transparent, and decentralized way to record transactions, which is particularly valuable for supply chain management, finance, and digital identity verification. For instance, in the supply chain sector, blockchain allows stakeholders to track products from origin to consumer, ensuring authenticity and reducing the risk of counterfeiting. Financial institutions use blockchain to facilitate cross-border payments more efficiently and with lower costs, bypassing traditional intermediaries. Additionally, smart contracts — self-executing contracts on blockchain networks — are revolutionizing legal, real estate, and business agreements by automating enforcement. 4. Internet of Things (IoT) and Connectivity The proliferation of IoT devices has connected the physical and digital worlds in unprecedented ways. Sensors embedded in everyday devices—from industrial machinery to home appliances—generate massive amounts of data that can be analyzed to optimize performance, predict failures, and enhance user experiences. Smart cities are emerging globally, powered by IoT infrastructure that manages traffic, energy, water supply, and waste systems efficiently. In agriculture, precision farming relies on IoT devices to monitor soil health, weather conditions, and crop growth, enabling higher yields and sustainable practices. The expansion of 5G networks further accelerates IoT adoption by providing high-speed, low-latency connectivity, making real-time applications more feasible and scalable. 5. Renewable Energy and Sustainable Technologies Innovation in renewable energy technologies has become a crucial driver of global market dynamics. Solar, wind, hydro, and bioenergy innovations are reshaping the energy sector, making it more sustainable and economically viable. Technological advancements in solar panel efficiency, battery storage, and grid management are reducing dependency on fossil fuels. Companies are investing in green hydrogen, carbon capture, and smart energy management systems to align with environmental regulations and meet the growing demand for clean energy. Sustainable innovations not only reduce environmental impact but also create new business opportunities in carbon trading, energy-efficient construction, and electric mobility. 6. Fintech Innovations Financial technology, or fintech, has revolutionized the global financial market by providing digital alternatives to traditional banking and financial services. Mobile banking apps, digital wallets, peer-to-peer lending platforms, and robo-advisors are making financial services more accessible, faster, and cheaper. Blockchain and AI technologies are particularly influential in fintech, enabling secure digital payments, real-time credit scoring, and automated investment management. In emerging markets, fintech solutions are bridging the financial inclusion gap, allowing unbanked populations to participate in the economy, transfer funds, and access credit with minimal friction. 7. Biotechnology and Healthcare Innovation The biotechnology sector is another major area of global technological innovation. Advances in genomics, bioinformatics, and molecular biology are transforming healthcare, agriculture, and environmental management. In medicine, breakthroughs in gene editing technologies like CRISPR have opened doors for treating genetic disorders. Personalized medicine, driven by genomics and AI, enables treatments tailored to individual patient profiles, improving outcomes and reducing side effects. Additionally, innovations in telemedicine, wearable health devices, and remote monitoring are redefining patient care, especially in areas with limited access to healthcare infrastructure. 8. E-commerce and Digital Platforms The growth of e-commerce platforms has reshaped global trade and consumer behavior. Innovations in digital payment systems, logistics optimization, and AI-powered recommendation engines have made online shopping seamless, personalized, and efficient. Global giants in e-commerce and emerging platforms in regional markets have expanded reach, enabling small and medium enterprises to access international markets with minimal upfront costs. The rise of omnichannel strategies, integrating online and offline sales experiences, further reflects the transformative impact of technology on retail and consumer engagement. 9. Autonomous Systems and Robotics Autonomous systems, including drones, self-driving vehicles, and industrial robots, are driving efficiency and innovation in logistics, transportation, and manufacturing. Drones are used for surveillance, delivery services, and agricultural monitoring. Autonomous vehicles promise safer and more efficient transportation networks, while collaborative robots (cobots) work alongside humans in factories to improve productivity. These technologies reduce labor-intensive tasks, minimize errors, and enhance operational scalability, enabling businesses to respond faster to market demand while reducing costs. 10. Future Outlook and Challenges While technological innovation propels the global market forward, it also brings challenges such as cybersecurity risks, data privacy concerns, and workforce displacement due to automation. Governments, businesses, and educational institutions are increasingly focused on developing regulatory frameworks, reskilling programs, and ethical guidelines to ensure technology benefits society broadly. Looking ahead, emerging technologies like quantum computing, extended reality (XR), and synthetic biology hold the potential to further disrupt global markets. Companies that invest in innovation, adapt rapidly, and embrace digital ecosystems are likely to gain competitive advantage, while traditional players face pressure to evolve or risk obsolescence. Conclusion Technologies and innovations have become the engines driving growth, efficiency, and competitiveness in the global market. From AI and IoT to renewable energy and biotech, the integration of advanced technologies across industries is creating new business models, enhancing productivity, and transforming consumer experiences. However, the pace of innovation also demands careful consideration of ethical, social, and economic implications. In the coming decades, the ability of nations and businesses to harness these innovations responsibly will define their position and success in the global economic landscape.
NASDAQ:QQQEducation
by GlobalWolfStreet
December 8 - December 12 2025: Disappointment ImminentThe market has not changed too much since last week, where my assessment that the market was in a neutral state turned out to be mostly accurate. I’m continuing to refine my analysis so I have changed some things heading into this week which should help provide even clearer signals. With the rate decision in focus, it will be important to consider the implications that a cut (which I am biased towards) vs unchanged rates will have on these indicators, as it will likely make the difference between the market continuing its bullish trend to end the year or if equities will continue to feel pressure from high interest rates and a slowing economy. 1. Macro Here we are seeing low demand for treasuries TVC:US10 and the dollar TVC:DXY while bond and equity put hedging has been unwinding. I think the current state of the market provides a clear signal of why the Fed needs to cut interest rates this month - dumping bonds while growth stagnates will make real yields surge and could cause the market to retreat from US assets altogether, which would be a worst-case scenario. I think the Fed has no choice but to keep cutting rates in order to keep yields down. Since the breakeven rate FRED:T5YIE was rising at the end of last week, a drop in the nominal yield TVC:US05Y now would send the real yield to lower lows. 2. FX Since the dollar can service as a funding or carry currency, I am comparing US rates to “carry” countries and the dollar index to other carry currencies in order to determine whether investors in this yield-seeking regime would be interested in dollars. Here you can see that compared to yields in Great Britain, Canada, New Zealand, and Australia (not shown), US yields are underperforming, and as a result, the dollar is weakening against the respective currency indices TVC:AXY , TVC:CXY , TVC:ZXY This is my new indicator that normalizes carry country yields (GB, CA, SE, NZ, AU) vs safe haven yields (JP, CH, EU, & US), shown on the dashed line, and respective currency pairs on the dotted line in order to detect the risk regime. Here we are seeing that carry yields are elevated and the market is still chasing after them compared to rushing to funding currencies for yield or safety. Here is a comparison of funding countries. My expectation for this week is that 1. The market will still be seeking yield (risk-on) 2. If US yields & USD fall, it will lift carry trades vs USD (such as FX_IDC:CADUSD & OANDA:AUDUSD ) 3. Risk-on regime continues, which will boost US equities Of course, the opposite will play out if the Fed keeps rates high, however they need to keep foreign investors buying US debt in order to sustain our unsustainable debt for a little while longer. Leaving rates unchanged will spook investors about the trajectory of monetary policy and lead to higher yields. This is why I am quite confident we will see a rate cut and am explaining this scenario in more detail. 3. Risk Credit fear continues to ease, while risk-on tech bets AMEX:XLK recover against safety in consumer staples AMEX:XLP 4. Equity Comparison Tech is still battered compared to other sectors. A sign of tension will emerge if tech continues to underperform the market while the Fed is signaling continued monetary easing. This would point to a true change in sentiment in which the market may be bearish on Tech. If this were to happen, a major market correction could be on the horizon. 5. Bias I’ve changed a few things on this layout and moved the CVD indicators to my QQQ chart since they react better to regular market hours order flow. Here I have a Z-score indicator of CME_MINI:ES1! - CBOE:VX1! which shows that the equity regime for September so far is bullish. ADL is flattening out but is not giving a useful signal yet. I also changed the linear Historical Volatility indicator to a Z-score oscillator which shows HV is declining and moving back to its floor, which can also be seen on VIX. Since we are guaranteed to see a major volatility spike after the rate announcement, I think VIX may be choppy until then. What’s worth noting is that with HV (non-directional) at its floor (sensitive to any Vol spikes) and VIX back to its floor ahead of the rate announcement, this signals to me that equities may have more sensitivity to a downside movement. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ When viewed together, I think all of this sends an interesting message that points to divergence between Macro/FX and US equities. With the Fed cutting rates into slower growth and Tech underperforming, low HV/VIX makes equities vulnerable to a reduction in risk exposure. I think this is what we will see if rates are cut under the current regime. 1. Yields will fall, but TVC:DXY may hold steady if there is equity pressure in the US. 2. Risk-on yield-seeking trades in FX will continue. Dollar may hold up against other funding currencies but will fall against higher-yielding currencies 3. Tech will underperform 4. VIX catching a bid will correspond with US indices falling 5. Since global environment will still be risk-on, volatility will be limited to the US and may be less intense As always, the reason I post my analysis is to provide a reference point as the week unfolds, and to backtest my strategies for improvement. For now, my bias is low volatility until FOMC (likely sideways or upside drift) followed by downside later in the week.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by ap769
QQQ End of a Corrective Bounce?The Thanksgiving bounce was real & technically healthy with a sharp V-reversal off ~$585 Buyers regained key MAs (20d & 50d), oscillators turned upward & price broke out of the panic low without resistance Last week’s action built a tight coil under a clear ceiling & this type of setup often resolves after a catalyst (FOMC) QQQ is at a true inflection point - not obviously topping, not clearly breaking out Both a pullback or breakout are technically reasonable A pullback is possible given stretched momentum, thinning volume, clear resistance $631-$637, many components are strong, but not surging & other short-term exhaustion signals which makes a risk of fade technically credible A breakout is still possible because the trend structure is intact, buyers defended every dip for 2 weeks, short-term AVWAPs are rising under price (support) & no reversal signals so the market tends to drift upward into events The most realistic path is a slow grind into $630-$633 early this week & after FOMC, the market chooses its path If buyers don’t have conviction, then a pullback toward $612 to $605 If buyers get a catalyst, then a breakout above $637 A “bounce into FOMC & then fade” base case is completely supported by the charts, but it’s not the only valid outcome A breakout remains technically possible if $637 is reclaimed with volume QQQ’s Thanksgiving rally carried into last week’s consolidation & the index is now poised at resistance in a balanced, technically neutral state so it can push higher into the $630-$633 early in the week, but the real move (pullback or breakout) will be decided after FOMC Wave 5 & Wave b often look similar until one key level is broken or held & right now, price is where both counts remain technically valid & that’s why I feel at a loss - it's ambiguous by nature, but there are precise levels that resolve the ambiguity 1. Price must break above the prior high at $637.01 with no exceptions Wave 5 must make a higher high relative to wave 3 2. Wave 5 should show expanding candles, improving breadth & stronger volume on the push through resistance bands Right now the move out of wave a is corrective-looking & wave 5 often starts with corrective back-testing; however, it has the look of an a–b–c upward correction, not a start of a new leg higher & this is a yellow flag for the bull case 1. If price rejects at resistance, wave b is confirmed & wave 5 is invalidated Price often stops exactly at the 78.6-82% retrace, which is common for wave b peaks Price should fail below $632-$637, then break $600-$605 & possibly accelerate lower to $570 2. If price closes above $637, then wave 5 is confirmed, period 3. If price rejects $630-$637 & breaks below $612, then the wave b path is confirmed This is the most important support on the chart Break $612 & the bounce was corrective so wave c is next The bounce up from wave a low looks much more like a wave b correction than a wave 5 start given the retracement depth (~78.6%) fits wave b perfectly, declining volume, stretched oscillators without trend confirmation & price pinned under major resistance Wave 5 usually doesn't start with weak volume & overlapping candles, but wave b rallies often do We don't confirm the wave b top until the market breaks support Structurally, the chart is sound & doesn't violate any hard Elliott rules A wave b often retraces 61.8-78.6%, or sometimes 100% of wave a The current rally is sitting just below the 78.6-82% ($630-$632) & may even tag $637 if the market pushes into the event/catalyst Wave c unfolds in 5 clean subwaves, often in a move parallel to wave a & usually lands near the 61.8% retrace of the prior impulse A realistic target is $560-$575 The wave c target around $572 is reasonable if the correction continues 0.618 × wave a (~32 points) 1 × wave a (most common, ~52 points) 1.618 × wave a (during strong, sharp corrections, ~84 points) $572 is between the 0.618 & 1 projections for wave c Lands almost perfectly on the 50% retracement of the entire wave 3 advance
NASDAQ:QQQ
by pakoumal
Qqq And tech sectorsI think in the coming week we will see Qqq close gap at 632, there is a chance for a pullback to 618-620 also this week.. I'll explain below how I come to both conclusions.. First The bad : I'll start with The TVC:VIX Fallen wedge here which is bullish for the vix... looks like a minimum bounce back to 17.00 is coming this week.. Max upside if Fomc goes bad is 19.50 -20.00 or 200ma Naturally if the vix spikes you will see a pullback on equities.. If the vix spikes to 17.00 then I think we pullback to 618-620 This pullback would with a break below 622.00 Now if vix spikes back to 20.00, well that's the worst case scenario and that would put Qqq at 611-613 which provides the strongest support 20/50 sma plus price action If qqq breaks below 610 and vix spikes above 23 then the bull rally is over ! I think as long as 613 holds Qqq is going to 640 minimum and 655 max Remember at the end of the day we are dancing with the devil up here at the 15yr resistance Bulls haven't last more than 2weeks up here in the last 2yrs before a 7-15% correction I'm not showing this to confuse you, I'm showing you the bigger picture so you can understand that despite whatever bullish move that happens in the next 2weeks I don't think it sustains through the entire Dec and another sell like what we saw in Nov is around the corner.. Now on to why I feel like qqq is headed to 640-660. First off Qqq is showing a broadening wedge and it has reclaimed its summer channel A descending broadening wedge usually pushes the stock/Index back to its ATH (See iwm) and sometimes higher .. The measured moved goes like so so an 8% move up from the breakout would put Qqq at 660 or 1.618 on fib extension When you look at the 3 biggest sectors AMEX:XLC AMEX:XLK NASDAQ:SMH You'll see similar bullish patterns AMEX:XLC Just broke out of a bullflag in its 3 yr uptrend Bullflag wants to take this sector back to 120 minimum NASDAQ:META and NASDAQ:NFLX will pump XLC the most AMEX:XLK Same broadening wedge as Qqq and pretty much same analysis This move up on XLK I think will push NASDAQ:MSFT back to 510.. NASDAQ:SMH Chips Same broadening wedge as Qqq and XLK Actually outperformed most tech Sectors because of Intc , amd and AVGO.. but I think the next leg up comes from NASDAQ:NVDA with a push back to 190ish Now , down to the action/Tradeable analysis.. NASDAQ:QQQ , wait for a move back above 627.00 to go long next week.. target of course is 632 Qqq has been trading for the most part of this rebound in this tight channel in white; Keep an eye out for the resistance Any opening bove 623 is neutral and you could try calls with a stop below 622.00 Things get bullish back above 627 Things get bearish below 622 with a target of 618. 622-627 IS CHOP.. Has a gap left open at 617 and the 1hour 200ma is there too . I know I said below 618 and 612 comes but they could dip for the gap close and push back above.. There is a trade I like going into this week. 1st . NASDAQ:MSFT Weekly chart has given 3 higher lows. Daily chart is showing wedge breakout and retest I think it's headed back to 510 this month which in perspective is only a 5% upside. Above 485 take calls to 492 Above 495 take calls to 510 Simple setup.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by ContraryTrader
4
Market Focus on QQQ — Bullish Setup Taking Shape!🎯 QQQ ($INVESCO NASDAQ-100) Bullish Swing Trade Setup The Layered Entry "Thief" Strategy | Profit Playbook 💰 📈 MARKET OUTLOOK The QQQ (INVESCO QQQ TRUST) is positioned for a bullish swing trade setup. 🚀 This technical analysis focuses on strategic multi-layer entry execution with defined risk/reward parameters suitable for intermediate swing traders. 🎪 ENTRY STRATEGY: "LAYERED THIEF" METHOD This isn't your typical entry—we're using smart limit order layering 🎯 to accumulate positions at key support zones. Think of it as a professional scale-in approach! 📍 Limit Order Entry Layers: Layer 1: $605.00 ⭐ Layer 2: $610.00 ⭐ Layer 3: $615.00 ⭐ Layer 4: $620.00 ⭐ 💡 Pro Tip: Feel free to add additional layers ($625, $630, etc.) based on your risk tolerance and account size. The thief's advantage is patience and positioning! Entry Triggers: Volume confirmation + Support zone bounce + Institutional accumulation signals 📊 🛑 STOP LOSS (Risk Management) ⚠️ THIEF SL: $590.00 📢 DISCLAIMER: This stop loss is a suggestion only. You are responsible for setting your own risk parameters based on your trading capital, risk tolerance, and market conditions. Trade at your own risk! 🎲 🎊 PROFIT TARGETS (Exit Strategy) PRIMARY TARGET: $650.00 ✅ SECONDARY RESISTANCE: $660.00 ⚠️ Note: The $660 zone presents strong technical resistance combined with overbought conditions and potential reversal traps. We recommend taking profits at $650 and letting a small portion run if momentum confirms. Smart money moves! 📢 DISCLAIMER: Target levels are suggestions based on technical analysis. Your profit-taking strategy should align with your personal risk/reward ratio. Final exit decisions rest with you! 🎯 🔗 CORRELATED PAIRS TO MONITOR Keep an eye on these related assets for confirmation signals: 🔴 QQQ Constituents & Index Correlation: NASDAQ:AAPL (Apple Inc.) — Tech sector heavyweight; if AAPL breaks support, QQQ may follow 📱 NASDAQ:MSFT (Microsoft Corp.) — AI & cloud leader; typically leads QQQ moves upward 🤖 NASDAQ:NVDA (NVIDIA Corp.) — Semiconductor bellwether; massive correlation to tech rallies 💻 NASDAQ:TSLA (Tesla Inc.) — Growth driver; watch for momentum continuation signals ⚡ NASDAQ:GOOGL (Alphabet Inc.) — Large-cap tech anchor; supports QQQ uptrend confirmation 🔍 📊 Macro-Level Pairs: NASDAQ:NDX (NASDAQ-100 Index) — Direct parent index; should mirror QQQ closely 📈 AMEX:SPY (S&P 500 ETF) — Broader market health check; risk-on environment confirmation ⭐ AMEX:IWM (Russell 2000 Small-Cap) — Risk sentiment gauge; divergence = caution ⚠️ TVC:DXY (US Dollar Index) — Inverse correlation; strong dollar = headwind for tech 💵 Key Correlation Points: Watch for tech sector strength continuation and macro risk-on sentiment. If NDX confirms, QQQ breakout is highly probable! 🚀 💡 STRATEGY BREAKDOWN ✅ Bullish Bias with patience-based accumulation ✅ Defined Risk at the $590 level ✅ Layered Entry for optimal position sizing ✅ Technical Confluence at resistance zones ✅ Risk/Reward Potential = Approx 1:2.5 ratio 🎓 TECHNICAL VALIDATION CHECKLIST ✅ Support zone identification at $605-620 range ✅ Volume analysis at entry levels ✅ RSI divergence confirmation ✅ Moving average alignment (200 SMA positioning) ✅ Institutional order flow patterns ✅ Market structure (Higher Highs/Higher Lows) ✨ If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community! #QQQ #SwingTrade #TechETF #NASDAQ100 #TradingStrategy #ThiefStrategy #LayeredEntry #ProfitPlaybook #Bullish #TechnicalAnalysis #ETFTrading #RiskManagement #ActiveTrading
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by The-Thief
QQQ A Fall Expected! SELL! My dear followers, This is my opinion on the QQQ next move: The asset is approaching an important pivot point 625.54 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market. Goal - 612.68 About Used Indicators: For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by AnabelSignals
QQQ VWAP Based EntriesWhen price moves from below to above an AVWAP decisively, it signals short covering & a shift in control from sellers to buyers & when 2 or more AVWAPs converge liquidity concentrates, reversals or breakouts often happen there & these are the spots where traders take reversal trades, breakout entries, or stop placements Right now, the 3 & 21 November AVWAPs are separated, meaning trend strength When they converge, it signals compression 1. Using AVWAPs as a dynamic stop-loss is one of the simplest & most effective uses If you're long above the 21 November AVWAP, the rising blue AVWAP is your dynamic stop A close below it should signal an exit It reflects the average buyer cost basis, not arbitrary price levels 2. An AVWAP is a useful trend filter Price above rising AVWAP(s) suggests a long bias Price below falling AVWAP(s) suggests short bias When price chops around a flattening AVWAP, stay out AVWAP is a trend health indicator 3. AVWAP + candlesticks = clean entry signals The strongest signals come when price pulls back into an AVWAP, prints a small reversal candle (hammer, doji, engulfing) & ATR is declining (just like now) since these become high-quality continuation entries As a high-level playbook, anchor VWAPs at major pivots (highs, lows, breakdowns, earnings gaps), trade pullbacks into rising AVWAPs during uptrends & trade rejects from falling AVWAPs in downtrends Use converging AVWAPs as inflection points Use the nearest rising AVWAP as your stop Anchor to the close if the candle represents an event you want to capture (breakout, breakdown, a clear reversal bar, a candle where closing price indicates the market's verdict, earnings, FOMC, etc) Anchor to (H+L+C)/3 (the “typical price”) when you want a smoothed, less-biased VWAP for longer-term structures or swings Typical price reduces noice from intraday spikes & avoids sensitivity to one extreme print or over-reaction to the tails on the candle (AVWAP from swing highs/lows or the start of a trend) Price is above all AVWAPs This means all meaningful “cost basis cohorts” are beneath price The market is structurally repaired, at least in volume-weighted terms Overhead resistance from anchored supply does not exist right now This is a very different situation from when AVWAPs are stacked above price The ATH AVWAP is rising & firmly below price This is one of the best signs of long-term trend health in AVWAP analysis When the ATH AVWAP is rising, decisively reclaimed & acting as near-term support, it usually tells you the prior correction has been fully absorbed Longs from the top are no longer underwater Selling pressure from those prior buyers is neutralized Trend followers using AVWAP logic have flipped their filters back to “risk-on” This is an objective, mathematical read & not a prediction The 3 & 21 November AVWAP are now support layers 3 November (red) are breakdown-day sellers who are now underwater & this is a bullish dynamic because they can’t apply pressure 21 Nov (blue) are capitulation low buyers, still profitable & in control - primary support Together, these form a layered support around $605-$612, or the area where dip-buyers have historically stepped-in A stop-loss location for AVWAP-based trading systems Now that price is above all 3 major AVWAPs, the focus shifts to behavior around the ATH AVWAP & since price is above it already, there are only 2 meaningful reads 1. Bullish continuation setup 2. Price may pull back to the ATH AVWAP ($618) Find buyers (hammer, doji, small-range reversal) & then move away This is one of Brian Shannon’s highest-probability setups (reclaim AVWAP → pullback → higher low → continuation) Potential warning setup because trend deterioration begins with this move Price closes below the ATH AVWAP Then stays below it for multiple sessions Slope begins to flatten or roll over This would be your first objective sign that the trend is losing strength from an anchored-volume standpoint The chart shows the exact 3 level anchored VWAP system that institutional traders use A correction-low AVWAP (21 November) A breakdown-event AVWAP (3 November) A structural high AVWAP (ATH) This lets you map out short-term trend control (blue), intermediate-term supply absorption (red) & higher-timeframe trend health (gray) & right now, all of them say the same thing Price is in a state of repaired, orderly trend with all major AVWAPs providing support beneath ATH AVWAP Defines trend health at the highest timeframe visible on your chart Swing traders, late buyers at the highs, trend-following algos When price is above the ATH AVWAP then the uptrend is structurally intact When price is below it then long-term players are underwater, trend is suspect QQQ is above the ATH AVWAP (~$618) This means that ATH buyers are profitable again The first high-quality pullback often tags this line in early trend repair phases A reclaim → retest → hold sequence is extremely bullish behavior 3 November breakdown AVWAP Tracks sellers from major breakdowns or panic candles Funds that sold into weakness, systematic risk-off flows If price is above it then that entire selling cohort is underwater These traders become forced buyers on pullbacks or breakouts AVWAP ~$610 Price is above it then supply from that breakdown is absorbed This AVWAP becomes support on deeper pullbacks If price tags it then watch for immediate dip-buying 21 Nov AVWAP - capitulation Tracks the cost basis of buyers who stepped in at the emotional low Aggressive reversal traders, deep-value algos, CTA re-leveraging This is the most important rising support line in the model When price is above it, the reversal cohort is still in control A close below it often signals trend exhaustion AVWAP ~$605 Price is well above it & the slope is rising aggressively As long as price respects this AVWAP, the recovery trend remains clean If price pulls back to it then this is a high-odds rotation/continuation buy point Long-Term AVWAP This is the long rising AVWAP on your chart (~$592) It acts as deep trend support The line separating bull vs bear structure The highest timeframe “fair value” of the entire trend leg A tag here marks trend reset, not breakdown A break below this layer shifts the market into caution This long AVWAP is safely under price so the long-cycle trend remains intact When all layers are stacked in ascending order like this, you get a fully aligned bull structure, clean pullback architecture, no overhead VWAP resistance, multi-cohort profit alignment & strong continuation behavior This model is about control, not prediction & right now, the bullish alignment is simply a fact of structure These levels come directly from how institutions trade AVWAPs 1. ATH AVWAP (~$618) is the light pullback, common after a fast push off a low Signals to watch for include a hammer/doji at the AVWAP Lower wick rejection ATR contraction & reversal Reclaim → hold → push This is the first layer most swing traders buy 2. 3 November AVWAP (~$610) This is the mid-depth pullback It’s usually triggered when short-term longs trim Expect a strong buyer reaction 1-2 days of stabilizing candles Momentum traders stepping back in This is a very strong continuation level in AVWAP systems 3. 21 November AVWAP (~$605) This is the high-value dip This line is VWAP traders’ favorite It represents the true reversal cohort’s cost basis It has been respected perfectly It rises steadily each day It marks the “line of trend continuation” If price reaches this AVWAP, this is often the highest-probability buy in the entire structure Rejecting here = trend continuation Closing below = trend fatigue 4. Long-Term AVWAP (~$592) This is the deep reset, not a casual dip If price ever hits this momentum is gone, trend is resetting, higher timeframe traders reassess, hedge funds rotate & isk allocation shifts This is not a breakdown, but it is a significant tone-change You rarely see this tested unless markets enter a broader digestion phase Given the current AVWAP spacing & slope $618 (ATH AVWAP) is highly actionable $610 (3 November AVWAP) is a strong level $605 (21 November AVWAP) is an institutional-grade support When price is above all 3, VWAP traders don’t look for tops - they monitor control transitions
NASDAQ:QQQ
by pakoumal
QQQ (5 December)When QQQ tops on the daily timeframe, you typically see upper-band overextension, multiple rejection wicks, bearish engulfing candles, a clear lower high formation, EMA breakdown & shrinking momentum + rising volatility, but the chart shows the opposite Price bounced cleanly off the mid-band & is riding the upper half of the Bollinger channel This is continuation behavior - not reversal structure The daily trend is intact and healthy No close below the mid-Bollinger (20d MA) No sharp mean reversion No violation of October low structure Higher lows since the pivot around $589 This is an uptrend, with no technical evidence of topping $637 is the ATH QQQ rarely tops on the first retest It either i) consolidates under resistance & then breaks, or ii) fakes a small dip & then breaks The current setup shows controlled expansion, trending conditions, no volatility spike, smooth adherence to mid-band support & higher highs forming inside the bands This is bullish The last candle is green, closing near the upper band with solid volume & QQQ closed above $625 - a higher high vs last week, which suggests continuation, not distribution 1. Breakout attempt toward $630-$635 60% Trend + position in band favors upside 2. Pullback to $620-$615 before breaking higher 30% Standard retest of mid-band structure 3. Deep reversal toward $580 10% No topping pattern; requires macro shock
NASDAQ:QQQ
by pakoumal
QQQ Structured Bullish Scenario • Compression Into MA Support📌 Asset: QQQ — Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ ETF) 🔎 Style: Swing / Day-Trade Profit Playbook 🎨 Theme: Bullish Pullback Setup using Triangular Moving Average + Layered Entry Strategy 📈 Bullish Pullback Plan — “Thief Layering Strategy” Edition 🕵️‍♂️💰 QQQ is pulling back into a Triangular Moving Average zone, forming a clean bullish reaction area. Price behavior shows controlled momentum, healthy retracement, and a potential continuation toward the upper supply zone. To keep it fun — Thief OG Style is included but in TradingView-permitted language and friendly terms. 🎯 Entry Plan (Layered Limit Entries — “Thief Style but TV-Friendly”) Using a layered entry method (multiple limit orders placed at different levels to reduce average cost and control risk): Buy Limit Layer 1: 605 Buy Limit Layer 2: 610 Buy Limit Layer 3: 615 Buy Limit Layer 4: 620 (Traders may increase or reduce the number of layers based on their own strategy and risk tolerance.) 🛑 Stop Loss (Risk Control Zone) 📍 Proposed Risk Level: 600 This is shared for educational insight only — every trader must select their own SL depending on risk appetite. 🎯 Target Zone (Resistance + Police Force Zone 🚓😆) Projected upside target: 650 The resistance zone has strong reaction history + signs of overbought conditions + possible liquidity traps. So take profit smartly and exit with gains before “police force” catches late buyers. (Again: this TP is optional — traders should decide their own TP levels.) 📚 Market Context & Correlation Watchlist 🔍🌐 QQQ is heavily correlated with major US tech indices & megacap tech stocks. Watching related pairs helps understand volatility, liquidity shifts, market strength, and trend momentum. 🔗 Related Pairs to Watch (Cross-Checks & Correlation Insight) 💠 NASDAQ:NDX / PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 Direct parent index of QQQ Moves almost identically Great for trend confirmation 💠 SP:SPX / AMEX:SPY Broader market risk sentiment If SPY + QQQ align in bullish direction → strength confirmed 💠 TVC:VIX Volatility meter Lower VIX supports bullish continuation 💠 NASDAQ:AAPL , NASDAQ:MSFT , NASDAQ:NVDA , NASDAQ:AMZN , NASDAQ:GOOGL These top components control majority of QQQ weighting Bullish tech megacaps = higher probability QQQ reaches target 💠 TVC:DXY (Dollar Index) Strong USD = pressure on equities Weak USD = supportive for QQQ rallies 💠 NASDAQ:TLT / US10Y Bond yields inverse to growth stocks Falling yields can provide additional bullish fuel for QQQ 🧠 Key Technical Points 🛠️🔥 Triangular MA acting as dynamic support Healthy pullback with controlled selling Layering entries reduces average cost & improves RR Resistance zone at 650 aligns with prior structure Megacaps still holding bullish bias Volatility decreasing → favorable for continuation ✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!” ⚠️ Disclaimer This is a thief-style trading strategy just for fun. #QQQ #NASDAQ #ETF #SwingTrade #DayTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #TriangularMA #LayeringStrategy #LimitOrders #MarketAnalysis #TradingPlaybook #USMarkets #Stocks #TraderLifestyle #Investing #BullishSetup #TrendContinuation #RiskManagement #ChartAnalysis
NASDAQ:QQQ
by The-Thief
QQQ Is QQQ topping?The 4H chart shows a clean breakout retest attempt as price is now testing the $625 resistance, the same area that previously rejected multiple times, but this time the backdrop is different RSI shows no bearish divergence & sits at ~63 (bullish, but not overbought) which supports continuation upward, not rejection Stoch is overbought, but embedded (staying >80) - typical of trending moves & this usually precedes a breakout, not a reversal MACD shows a bullish cross with an expanding histogram while the MACD line is curling upward, not flattening Price structure strongly favors an upside push into $630-$637 The 4H candles show higher lows, higher highs, strong impulsive green sequences & controlled pullbacks with shallow retracements This is not corrective price action - it’s impulsive Immediate resistance is $625.50 so a break and 4H close above = $630 test likely within 1-2 sessions Bullish thesis remains intact unless $618 (primary support) breaks Ultimately, $605-$607 must hold for a broader uptrend above the recent highs to +$640 Right now price sits at $622-$625, well above these key levels A breakout attempt is coming with an immediate targets of $630 & $637 We have an expected inline PCE today, FOMC next week (likely signaling 2025 cuts) & seasonality (December is historically bullish) This is when a rally should ignite As long as QQQ trades above $618 and especially above $611, bulls remain in control Probability of testing $630-$637 before 19 December is higher than failing $618 (~55%) A daily close above $637 invalidates the a-b-c bearish path & confirms wave (5) is underway Upside targets are $692 (Fib 123.6%) & $726 (Fib 138.2%) These align with historical QQQ extensions during Fed pivots This is the scenario the current macro narrative supports with PCE likely inline, Fed likely signals rate cuts for 2026, yields easing & seasonality strong The current bounce is wave (b) with wave (c) next only if wave (4) is not complete If that happens, downside targets cluster include $586 (Fib 78.6%), $560 (Fib 100%) & $547 (Fib 61.8% of entire rally) Probability of deeper a-b-c correction is ~45%, lower if Fed confirms a pivot next week QQQ is between bullish continuation vs bearish retrace for max frustration 1. Bullish wave (5) 55% $637-$650+ Highly favorable 2. Sideways/Chop 15% $615-$625 Theta pain, but not dead 3. Bearish wave (c) 30-35% $586-$560 Call loses value Because we haven’t broken $618 & macro is supportive, wave 5 has the edge right now QQQ is riding the middle Bollinger band upward Rejected the lower band (18-21 November) Reclaimed the 20d MA Is now trending upward along the mid-band This is a post-pullback continuation trend, not a topping structure & is bullish until the middle band is lost Price is likely to push toward the upper band, which right now aligns with $632-$637 Before the November drop bands were wide, volatility high, contraction & a trend shift, but now, bands are narrowing slightly, but the upper band is tilting upward, not flat Flat upper band = consolidation Rising upper band = trend continuation The chart shows rising upper band or bullish drift with breakout potential QQQ is currently not touching the upper band, not forming topping wicks, not showing distribution volume, so this means no exhaustion, room for upside & momentum still building f price were already slamming the upper band repeatedly, that'd be a warning, but it’s sitting comfortably between the bands & trending upward without overheating Everything on this daily chart supports continuation into $630+ over the next 5-10 sessions
NASDAQ:QQQ
by pakoumal
QQQ Short Term Cycle Nearing End; Pullback to Attract BuyersThe short-term Elliott Wave outlook for the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) indicates that the cycle from the April 2025 low remains active. Wave (4) of the ongoing impulse concluded at 580.27, and the ETF has since resumed its upward trajectory. To confirm continuation, price must break above the prior wave (3) peak recorded on 30 October at 638.41. The rally from the 21 November wave (4) low has matured and is expected to complete soon, reflecting the natural rhythm of the Elliott Wave sequence. The advance from wave (4) has unfolded as a five-wave impulse. Within this structure, wave ((i)) ended at 586.25, followed by a corrective pullback in wave ((ii)) that terminated at 580.36. From there, the ETF nested higher. Wave (i) of the next sequence ended at 596.98, while wave (ii) pulled back to 589.44. Momentum carried wave (iii) to 606.76, before wave (iv) corrected to 597.32. The final leg, wave (v), reached 619.51, completing wave ((iii)) at a higher degree. A subsequent pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 612.13. Looking ahead, wave ((v)) of 1 is expected to finish soon. Afterward, a corrective wave 2 should unfold, addressing the cycle from the 21 November low before the ETF resumes higher. In the near term, as long as the pivot at 580.27 remains intact, dips are anticipated to find support in a 3, 7, or 11 swing sequence, reinforcing prospects for further upside.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by Elliottwave-Forecast
1
QQQ Neural Brain Analyzing Price Action — Watch ModeCurrent Status: The system is tracking a potential bearish setup, but conditions are not yet aligned for a high-probability entry. The signal is "SELL," but with low confidence (39%), suggesting caution. 1. Perception (The Data) Efficiency Score: 0.59 (Mixed) The market is moving with moderate efficiency. It is not purely "choppy" (which would be <0.30), but it isn't a clean, strong trend yet either. Spread (Price): 0.44 Volatility is somewhat compressed. Position: BELOW CLOUD Price is trading below the key resistance cloud, which is a bearish technical characteristic. 2. Cognition (The Trend) Bias: BEARISH The underlying trend direction is down. Conviction: GAINING Despite the mixed price action, the algorithm's internal belief in the bearish bias is strengthening. Mode: TRENDING (TRACKING) The system is in "Tracking" mode, meaning it is following the price action closely rather than filtering it out as noise. 3. Output (The Signal) Signal: SELL Confidence: 39% (Low) CRITICAL NOTE: While the directional signal is valid (Sell), the confidence is below the typical threshold for aggressive entry (usually 70%+). This indicates a higher risk of a false breakout or a "bear trap." Final Verdict Macro Structure: WEAK BEARISH Micro Action: MIXED AI Strategy: WATCHING (Possible Setup) Trader's Takeaway: Do not short aggressively yet. The "Neural Brain" is telling you that while the structure is bearish (Price < Cloud) and conviction is building, the current moment lacks the momentum or clarity for a high-confidence trade. Action: Wait for the Confidence to increase (ideally >60%) or for the Efficiency Score to improve before entering a short position.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by CustomQuantLabs