QQQ Rallying Into ResistanceQQQ Rallying Into Resistance — What’s Next After the Trump Roundtable?
I’ve been going through QQQ charts tonight and comparing the Daily and 1H timeframes side by side to map out what might come next — especially after the afternoon rally that aligned with headlines from Trump’s investor roundtable. It definitely caught attention.
Daily Chart Thoughts:
QQQ has been trending upward within a falling wedge since early April, and today’s candle closed just under the wedge resistance zone around 475–476. That level lines up with previous support-turned-resistance from March. The MACD is still pushing bullish momentum, and the Stoch RSI is cruising near overbought — signaling strength but caution at this zone. If we break above and hold, the next level I’m eyeing is the 493.50 zone. That would officially flip structure bullish.
1H + GEX Layer:
On the intraday side, today’s session really ramped after 2PM — notably when headlines about Trump’s meeting with tech and AI executives hit the wires. That sharp spike landed QQQ right into the GEX7 and GEX9 clusters, just under the 482.50 high. The Options GEX chart shows the 482 area also has 80%+ call resistance and clustering near key Gamma Walls.
Also worth noting: the options positioning is still heavy on puts (64.2%), which tells me this could be a squeeze if bulls defend the breakout above 473–475. If bulls can flip that gamma resistance at 482, we may start working toward 493 or even 500 this week — especially if the macro or political narrative continues to drive risk-on.
How I'm Thinking About the Trade:
I’m personally watching for a pullback retest of 475 or even 472. If we hold VWAP and start climbing back into the GEX zone, I’ll look to enter calls with tight stops. If this stalls under 482 and IV spikes, I’d consider selling premium or waiting for a deeper dip to reload.
Big Picture Forecast:
The Trump meeting gave bulls a jolt today, but whether that sticks will depend on follow-through volume tomorrow. If this is more than a headline pop, the Daily breakout could legitimize a broader tech rally — especially with Apple and NVDA also pushing.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Just my personal market notes and trade planning shared for educational purposes.
QQQ trade ideas
SPY/QQQ NQ/ES 29 de Abril 2025Market Outlook (QQQ / NQ Analysis)
📅 Date: April 29, 2025
🕰 Timeframe: 30-minute
📈 Asset: Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ) / NQ Futures
📊 Gamma Reference: SpotGamma levels with Zero Gamma & Put/Call Walls
🧠 Key Levels & Price Map
Level Type QQQ Price NQ Equivalent Comment
Call Wall (3) 478 19760 / 19800 🔼 Target 6 - Bullish Exhaustion
Target Long 477 19720 🔼 Target 5
Call Wall / RB Head 475 19620 🔼 Target 4 / High Confluence
Call Wall 472 19500 🔼 Target 3
RB Bottom 470.89 — Intermediate Resistance
Put Wall (1) 470 19420 🔼 Target 2 (bullish if broken)
Fib 0.5 468.78 — Reversal Zone
Put Wall (2) 467 19340 🔽 Target 1 - Short Bias Begins
Put Wall (3) 465 19220 🔽 Target 3 - Strong Bearish Zone
📉 Gamma & Sentiment Context
Zero Gamma: At 468 – market may be more volatile below this level.
Vol Trigger: At 467 – below this level, dealers may hedge by selling, increasing downside pressure.
Put Walls: Act as potential support or reversal zones (465, 467, 470).
Call Walls: Act as resistance or bullish break levels (472, 475, 478).
🧭 Possible Scenarios
📈 Bullish Path
If price breaks above 470, next long target is 472, then 475 (high confluence with RB Head and Call Wall).
Above 475, potential acceleration toward 478–479 (high call gamma zone).
📉 Bearish Path
Rejection at 470–472 could lead to a retest of 467, then 465.
Below 465, expect a push toward 19300–19220 NQ, aligning with the lower Put Walls.
QQQ Long-term Key LevelsIdentified Key levels for Long-term Holdings
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SPY/QQQ ES/NQ 28 Abril SPY (Top Left)
Possible Buy Zone:
➔ Between 545 and 547.39
➔ Confluence with Put Wall (545) and RB Bottom (547.39)
Major Resistance/Target:
➔ 550 - 553 area (Call Walls)
➔ If broken, eyes on 555+
Quick Game Plan:
Zone Action Notes
545-547 Possible Longs Strong support from options walls
550-553 Potential Profit Taking / Short Setup Call Walls overhead
Quote to remember:
"Price respects the walls — until it doesn’t. Trade the reactions, not the predictions."
📈 QQQ (Top Right)
Possible Buy Zone:
➔ 472-473 area
➔ Supported by Zero Gamma and a previous consolidation zone.
Resistance/Target Zone:
➔ 474.50 - 476 (Highlighted Sell Zone)
Key Test of Resistance on QQQKey remount of the QQQ. We are over the 9ema and 20sma now and testing a huge supply zone that we need to eat thorugh. This ownt be easy as this 470 level is a huge supply but this can be the start of something. A couple days of chop here while we grind under the supply zone could set us up for higher prices. They key is to see how we react into this zone as the first test into that 470 we might get rejected in absence of news but we need the see the nature and structure of that pullback. We are by no way means out of the bear market this is a traders market but there are some green shoots. The market is shrugging off bad news and the trump team is trying to keep this market afloat by anymeans!
Short term high QQQ tgt $434I had a great day with dowsing the highs & lows on QQQ today, and since hitting this high, I asked what's next & keep getting breakdown.
I did a week by week reading at the beginning of the month, and this week is supposed to take a bit of a dive & be "bottoming out". The weekly readings have been pretty helpful, so I hope this continues.
Anyway, this could be absolutely incorrect, but twice I've gotten a move to the downside on QQQ of around 5.6-.7%.
I also got some figures lower, but I'm not confident they are prices. They were 425-22. Sometimes numbers come that are something other than what I ask or expect, so it can get confusing. It's possible there's another little pop first, but It seems like a drop is imminent according to my work. Watch for a low on Wed./Thurs? I have lots of dates for this week including for a high today.
QQQ, Weekly RSI has reached oversold territory just 4 other timeIt's also came at or near a long-term bottom.
If you're a long-biased trader looking for high-probability entries, this setup deserves your attention.
The weekly RSI just hit oversold territory — something that’s only happened 4 times in the last 10 years. Each of those times? It marked a major bottom or the start of a strong bullish trend.
We’re also bouncing near long-term horizontal support (~$420) and holding above a rising trendline that’s defined the bull market since 2018.
If price continues to hold this zone and RSI starts curling back up, I’ll be looking to go long.
Stop below $420. Reward-to-risk looks solid if momentum confirms.
Not calling the exact bottom — just positioning where the risk makes sense.
$QQQ - Recap of Last Week April 14-17
Last week we had a shortened Trading week because of Good Friday.
We opened the week with a gap up and got a rejection at the 30min 200MA.
++ You typically don’t want to go long at a downward facing moving average. ++
And this did play out all week. We got rejected at the downward facing 200MA on Monday, again on Tuesday.
On Wednesday we gapped down (UHC weighed on the market). Wednesday we had a big down day - closing down almost 3%
And then on Thursday we came back up but stayed underneath the 35EMA.
Thursday was the last day of the trading week, and look tat the setup we started the day with. Red 35EMA trading under the Blue 30min 200 (That was bearish)
30min 200 pointing down - that was bearish. And bear gap at the top of the implied move.
QQQ - Intraday Setup April 16 2025QQQ Intraday Setup
April 16 2025
Decision making - 15minutes time frame
Short trade scenario -1
Market Takes resistance = 455.95
Stop loss = 456
Short trade get initiated
1st Target = 449.0 (profit booking)
2nd target = 442.58
Trade setup explained:
Market made a high of 455.95 on April 11 2025.
High has sustained above 455.95 in next 2 trading sessions
Market has opened today below 455.95. Hence this support zone is now intraday resistance zone.
Long trade scenario-1
Market Takes Support = 442.58
Long trade gets initiated
Stop loss = 441.20
1st Target 450.85 (Profit booking)
2nd Target = 455.95
Trade setup explained:
Market made a high of 442.58 on April 7 2025.
Market has sustained above 455.95 in next 6 trading sessions until today and hence becomes intraday support.
Long trade scenario-2
Market opens gap down and sustains above = 450.85
Long trade gets initiated
Stop loss = 447.19
1st Target 452.64
2nd Target = 455.95 (Profit booking)
Trade setup explained:
Market has a downward trend on April 10th and creates an intraday swing high of 450.85. The swing high of a downward trending day becomes 1st stage of resistance when markets are close to this price.
Disclaimer: I am not a registered analyst. The above information is only for educational purpose based on my years of experience. Please consult a financial advisor before investing.
QQQ Breakdown Incoming? Gamma Pressure Exploding at 452 🔮 GEX (Gamma Exposure) – Options Sentiment Overview
🔥 PUT Dominance at 452 – Market on the Edge
* QQQ is trading directly at the highest negative NET GEX level at 452.31, marking it as the PUT trigger zone.
* A breakdown below 452 opens the gates toward 450, where the 2nd PUT Wall (-13.23%) adds further downside acceleration.
* This is a high-risk gamma zone: dealers are short gamma and could fuel a liquidation flush if price stays under 452.
🧱 CALL Walls Stack from 456–463
* The nearest CALL resistance zone sits between 456–458, topped by 461–463, all stacked with hedging activity.
* Strongest net positive GEX (gamma ceiling) sits around 458–460, aligning with macro rejection zones.
📊 Options Sentiment Snapshot:
* IVR: 46.7 → Moderate volatility, but still supportive of fast swings.
* IVx avg: 34.8, down –11.25%, showing vol is compressing while risk increases — dangerous combo.
* PUTs 67.6% → Overwhelmingly PUT-heavy environment, a signal of dealer short gamma pressure — one move down can feed the next.
🎯 GEX Implications:
* Break below 452 → Expect momentum to ramp toward 450 → 448 → 440 range.
* Bounce off 452 → Needs strong reclaim of 456–458 to reverse gamma flow — very difficult without macro help.
🕰️ 1-Hour Technical Analysis
Structure:
* QQQ broke down from an ascending wedge and is now retesting prior support at 452.47.
* Price is below all EMAs and losing VWAP — confirms bearish control.
Indicators:
* MACD: Weak and diverging bearishly — no sign of reversal strength.
* RSI: Dipping under 40, near oversold, but no bullish divergence visible yet.
Key Levels to Watch:
* Support: 452 → 450 → 448 → 440
* Resistance: 456 → 458 → 464.98
🧠 Final Thoughts:
QQQ is sitting on the edge of a gamma trap at 452. With PUTs dominant and technicals confirming weakness, there’s a real risk of continued slide toward 450–448 or lower if bulls can’t reclaim the 456 zone quickly.
GEX suggests heavy dealer hedging is active — so expect volatility, and prepare for a momentum spike if 452 fails.
This is not financial advice. Always trade with risk management, and let price action confirm your plan before executing.
This is a good spot to start buying the market.We’ve reached the lower boundary—whether this marks the start of a prolonged sell-off or a rebound point doesn’t matter right now. In the next couple of weeks, we’ll trade higher before the true extent of the damage becomes clear. This is a good spot to start buying the market.
$QQQ - Recap of April 14 2025Today, Monday April 14th we opened with a gap UP to the 30min 200MA and slightly above that. We closed the top of the gap (always a potential resistance and in the case here, paired with the 30min 200MA that was facing down we did get pulled back down to close the morning gap and the rest of the bear gap (combined it was an island gap)
Once we closed the bear gap first from above we came back and closed the bull gap, we took another swing at the 30min 200, still facing down and got rejected back down into close. It was an easy trading range today. Rather predicable, in my opinion, with the downward facing 30min 200MA, the bear gap and the 35EMA still trading underneath the 30min 200MA. These are all things I drill in daily in the videos and even though we closed great a lot of the bearishness of this chart today played out to contain the upside.
Also let's not forget that we had a green signal line today!! It looked weak but you can see the support, weak or not, it stayed green.
How did you guys do??
Bullish Setup for QQQ: Price Targets and Key Levels for Next Wee
- Key Insights: QQQ exhibits strong bullish momentum, supported by technical
setups, including cup-and-handle formations and golden crosses. Buyer
sentiment remains robust, driven by tariff pauses on tech and chip stocks
and a broader recovery in indices. Sustaining above key support at 444 will
be critical for maintaining upward momentum, while geopolitical volatility
should be monitored closely.
- Price Targets:
- Next Week Targets: T1 = 465, T2 = 478
- Stop Levels: S1 = 436, S2 = 421
- Recent Performance: QQQ has rallied 7.5% in its latest bullish phase and is
currently trading at 446.18, outperforming major indices like SPY and ES.
Short-term activity reveals consistent gains above last week’s and
yesterday’s closing prices, underscoring the strength of buyer sentiment.
- Expert Analysis: Technical indicators such as stochastic oscillators, golden
crosses, and Fibonacci levels point toward sustained upside potential.
However, experts urge caution due to heightened geopolitical risks and
inflation concerns. Price action around the 444 support level will validate
the reliability of QQQ's bullish case.
- News Impact: Positive catalysts include a tariff pause on tech and
semiconductor stocks, which benefits QQQ’s key holdings in the technology
sector. Additionally, broad market recovery and renewed optimism have
amplified fund flows into the NASDAQ 100. However, potential downside risks
stem from trade tensions and inflationary pressures, making QQQ vulnerable
to sudden volatility despite its promising technical structure.
QQQ Coiling for a Breakout? Critical Zone Approaching📈 Technical Analysis (1H Chart)
QQQ is riding within a clean ascending channel since the April 9th reversal. The recent candles are forming higher lows and testing upper resistance near 454.00, with bullish volume stepping in during Thursday’s session. RSI is steadily climbing toward the 60–65 zone but not overbought yet, leaving room for an upward breakout.
* Key Resistance: 468.31 (top of the channel + GEX wall)
* Support Zones: 435.00 (put wall), 420.00 (gamma gap zone)
Current consolidation around 454 suggests the market is deciding whether to push into the heavy call wall above or reject toward the lower channel boundary.
🔍 GEX (Gamma Exposure) + Options Sentiment
The options data offers a clear battleground:
* GEX Resistance: The highest positive NET GEX is at 460–469, aligning with the 2nd and 3rd CALL Walls. This creates a strong gamma magnet but also potential resistance.
* GEX Support: Strong PUT Support around 435, confirmed by -42.99% GEX Support Wall.
* Options Oscillator: Extreme PUT bias at 83%. This could be positioning for protection or fuel for a short squeeze if price breaks higher.
* IVR: 68.4 (Elevated) | IVx Avg: 46.8
This suggests high premium—buyers of options are paying up for volatility.
📊 Trade Outlooks
Bullish Scenario (Breakout Above 455–460):
* 📈 Entry: 455–456 breakout with confirmation
* 🎯 Target 1: 460
* 🎯 Target 2: 468
* ⛔️ Stop Loss: Below 448
* 💡 Suggested Option: 460C or 465C (0DTE or 4/17), tight spreads required due to elevated IVR
Bearish Scenario (Rejection at 455 and breakdown)
* 📉 Entry: Below 450 on strong red candle
* 🎯 Target 1: 445
* 🎯 Target 2: 435 (GEX support)
* ⛔️ Stop Loss: Over 456
* 💡 Suggested Option: 445P or 440P (with defined risk, preferably spreads)
📌 Conclusion
QQQ is sitting in a high-tension coil—either we break above 455–460 and see a gamma squeeze to 468, or options flows pull us back to the 445–435 support zone. With IV elevated and options heavily tilted toward PUTs, watch for a potential contrarian breakout if bulls step in.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk before trading.