TSLA trade ideas
TSLA Weekly Bearish Play — August 2, 2025
🔻 **TSLA Weekly Bearish Play — August 2, 2025** 🔻
🚨 **Multi-Model Consensus Signals a Tactical Put Opportunity**
### 🔍 Market Snapshot:
* **Daily RSI:** 39.9 (Bearish)
* **Weekly RSI:** 53.2 → Falling
* **Volume:** Weak (0.8x last week)
* **Options Flow:** Neutral (C/P Ratio \~1.04)
* **VIX:** 20.38 → Favorable for Options Plays
* **Institutional Support:** Weak
---
### 🔮 Model Consensus:
📉 **All major models (xAI, Google, Claude, Meta, DeepSeek)** confirm:
* Bearish momentum on both daily + weekly RSI
* Weak volume = cautious institutional behavior
* Volatility setup perfect for short-dated puts
---
### 🎯 Viral Trade Setup:
**💥 Trade Type:** PUT (Short TSLA)
**🔻 Strike:** \$300
**📆 Expiry:** 2025-08-08
**💰 Entry Price:** \$6.65
**🎯 Target Exit:** \$10.64 – \$13.30 (60%-100% gain)
**🛑 Stop Loss:** \$3.99
**📊 Confidence:** 65%
**📍 Entry Timing:** Monday open
**🕒 Signal Timestamp:** 2025-08-03 01:33:56 EDT
---
### ⚠️ Key Levels:
* Support to watch: **\$297.82**
* News/event risks: Stay alert ⚡
* Use tight risk controls for weekly plays!
---
🔥 **If you trade TSLA — don’t sleep on this one.**
Bearish consensus + clean setup = **high-probability weekly play.**
TSLA Breakout Watch: Symmetrical Triangle Squeeze!Trade Summary
Setup: Symmetrical triangle pattern tightening since March; volatility compression signals an imminent breakout.
Entry: On daily close above the triangle resistance (~$324)
Stop‑loss: Below triangle support (~$305)
Targets:
• Target 1: $375
• Long-term: $500+
Risk/Reward: ~2.5–3:1 (Initial target), higher for long-term hold
Technical Rationale
📈 Symmetrical triangle: Clear converging trendlines; price nearing apex after months of higher lows and lower highs
🔔 Volatility squeeze: Range compression increases odds of explosive move
⏳ Daily timeframe: Signals a swing/position trade opportunity with significant upside
Catalysts & Context
⚡️ Earnings season ahead could trigger a breakout
🌱 EV sector momentum and renewed tech leadership
🏦 Analyst upgrades and potential for macro rate cuts
Trade Management Plan
Entry: Wait for a daily close and volume confirmation above $324 resistance
Stop-loss: Tight initial stop below $305; trail to breakeven after breakout confirmation
Scaling: Partial profits at $375; let remainder run for $500+ if momentum continues
Poll
What’s your view? Are you watching TSLA? Comment below or vote:
🔼 Bullish
🔽 Bearish
🔄 Waiting for confirmation
Follow us for daily high-probability setups & real-time trade updates!
Disclaimer: Not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
Fibonacci Arcs in Stock TradingFibonacci Arcs in Stock Trading
Fibonacci arcs, derived from the renowned Fibonacci sequence, offer a compelling blend of technical analysis and market psychology for traders. By mapping potential support and resistance areas through arcs drawn on stock charts, these tools provide insights into future price movements. This article delves into the practical applications of Fibonacci arcs in trading, their interplay with market psychology, and best practices for effective use.
Understanding Fibonacci Arcs
The Fibonacci arc indicator is a unique tool in technical analysis derived from the famed Fibonacci sequence. It’s crafted by drawing arcs at the key Fibonacci retracement levels - 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% - from a high to a low point on a stock chart. Each curve represents potential support or resistance areas, offering insights into the stock’s future movements.
The art of arc reading, meaning interpreting these curves, is crucial for traders. When a stock approaches or intersects with an arc, it reflects a significant reaction level. For instance, if a stock price touches or nears an arc, it could face arc resistance, indicating a potential halt or reversal in its trend.
Applying Fibonacci Arcs in Trading
In the stock market, these arcs serve as a guide for traders seeking to anticipate future price movements. When applied correctly, they can provide critical insights into potential support and resistance levels. Here's a step-by-step look at how you may use them effectively:
- Identifying High and Low Points: Begin by selecting a significant high and low point on the stock's chart. In an uptrend, it’s the most recent swing high to a previous swing low, and vice versa. These are the anchor points.
- Drawing the Arcs: Once the points are selected, draw the arcs at the Fibonacci retracement levels of 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%. They radiate from the chosen low point to the high point (or vice versa), cutting across the chart.
- Interpretation: Watch how the stock interacts with these lines. When the price approaches an arc, it might encounter resistance or support, signalling a potential change in trend or continuation.
- Timing Entries and Exits: Traders can use the arcs in the stock market as a tool to time their trading decisions. For instance, a bounce could be a signal to enter a trade, whereas the price breaking through might suggest it's time to exit.
Fibonacci Arcs and Market Psychology
The effectiveness of Fibonacci arcs in trading is deeply intertwined with market psychology. They tap into the collective mindset of traders, who often react predictably to certain price levels. The Fibonacci sequence, underlying this tool, is not just a mathematical concept but also a representation of natural patterns and human behaviour.
When a stock nears a curve, traders anticipate a reaction, often leading to a self-fulfilling prophecy. If many traders make an arc stock forecast, they might sell as the price approaches a certain point, causing the anticipated resistance to materialise. Similarly, seeing support at an arc can trigger buying, reinforcing the tool’s power.
This psychological aspect makes Fibonacci arcs more than just technical tools. They are reflections of the collective expectations and actions of market participants, turning abstract mathematical concepts into practical indicators of market sentiment and potential movements.
Best Practices
Incorporating Fibonacci arcs into trading strategies involves nuanced techniques for better accuracy and efficacy. Here are some best practices typically followed:
- Complementary Tools: Traders often pair this tool with other indicators like moving averages or RSI for a more robust analysis.
- Accurate Highs and Lows: It's best to carefully select the significant high and low points, as the effectiveness of the curves largely depends on these choices.
- Context Consideration: Understanding the broader market context is crucial. Traders usually use Fibonacci arcs in conjunction with fundamental factors to validate their analysis.
- Watch for Confluence: Identifying areas where Fibonacci levels converge with other technical signals can provide stronger trade setups.
- Practice Patience: Traders typically avoid making hasty decisions based solely on Fibonacci levels. It's usually better to wait to see additional confirmation from the price action.
Advantages and Limitations of Fibonacci Arcs
Fibonacci arcs are a popular tool in technical analysis, offering distinct advantages and some limitations in analysing stock movements. Understanding these can help traders leverage the tool more effectively.
Advantages
- Intuitive Nature: The Fibonacci sequence is a natural pattern, making the tool intuitive for traders to understand and apply.
- Dynamic Support and Resistance Levels: They provide dynamic levels of support and resistance, unlike static lines, adapting to changing market conditions.
- Versatility: Effective in various market conditions, the arcs can be used in both trending and sideways markets.
Limitations
- Subjectivity in Selection: The effectiveness largely depends on correctly identifying the significant high and low points, which can be subjective.
- Potential False Signals: Like all technical tools, they can generate false signals, especially in highly volatile markets.
- Requires Complementary Analysis: To maximise effectiveness, these curves are usually used alongside other technical indicators, as they are not infallible on their own.
The Bottom Line
Fibonacci arcs are invaluable tools in stock analysis, providing insights into market trends and potential price movements.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Tesla - A story of an underdogSeveral of the Mag 7 are getting over heated, so I like to look at the ones that haven't caught up.
Since I don't have a crystal ball, I must consider the bearish and bullish scenarios.
As an investor I must pivot accordingly as one of these scenarios gets invalidated.
So on my charts you'll always see both scenarios. Today I'm leaning towards the bull.
Tesla just needs a narrative shift (ie -new invention etc), & price action changes in a heart beat.
Yet, price action really has less to do with the news making Elon a hero, then a villain and then back and forth...but moreso to do with price action patterns that just keep repeating.
So if we don't get a dead cat bounce, I believe Tesla could eventually head towards it's ATH, if this bull market continues.
Tesla (TSLA) – VolanX Forecast: The Calm Before the Storm?📊 Tesla (TSLA) – VolanX Forecast: The Calm Before the Storm?
Wave structure analysis + liquidity map + roadmap to $513
🧩 The Story So Far – Compressed Potential
Tesla has spent the past three months inside a contracting triangle (ABCDE) — a classic Elliott Wave corrective pattern that signals energy compression before expansion. From the May high (Wave (1)), price has been coiling within tightening range boundaries, forming lower highs and higher lows. The triangle culminates with leg (E), now hovering near support.
🟠 VolanX flags this as a terminal wedge—an area where institutions test both sides of the book, hunting liquidity.
🌀 Wave Forecast – Impulse Awakening
If the triangle completes as expected, we enter Wave (3)—typically the most explosive wave in Elliott sequences.
Here's how the projected roadmap unfolds:
Wave (2) ends around $288.20–$271.00 (key demand/liquidity zone)
Wave (3) initiates from this springboard, aiming toward:
📈 1.0 Fib Extension at $367.71
📈 1.618 Extension at $457.84
Consolidation expected at that level forms Wave (4)
Final thrust into Wave (5) targets $513.51, aligning with extended Fib projection and historical order block
This sequence respects classical Elliott impulse structure: 5-wave motive into macro target zone.
🧪 Timing & Liquidity – Watch the Clock, Watch the Flow
🗓 Key Windows from chart verticals:
Aug 27–Sep 1, 2025: Liquidity test at $288.20 zone
Oct 1–15, 2025: Expansion toward Wave (3)
By mid-November 2025: Completion of Wave (5) → exhaustion at $513 zone before probable macro retracement
🔍 Liquidity Zones:
$288.20 – Institutional reaccumulation level (VolanX confirms large resting bids)
$271.00 – Final sweep zone. Break below would invalidate bullish count
Above, $336.70–$351.19 is the first liquidity magnet
Major stops above $457.84, then final cluster $513.51
🧠 VolanX Opinion – AI View on Risk & Opportunity
VolanX signals high-probability breakout setup, with confluence across:
Liquidity clusters
Fibonacci symmetry
Elliott sequencing
Gamma positioning (institutional hedging tilts long below $290)
📈 Current predictive bias: 68% probability of breakout from triangle resolving bullishly, conditional on $288 support holding.
If tested and respected, AI favors aggressive repositioning in long gamma, echoing historical TSLA breakout behavior.
📌 Strategy Summary:
“I think they shall test this… I could be wrong. But if momentum holds, $288.20 bounce is likely. If not, wait for structure to rebuild before long.”
🧭 Trade Setup (Not Financial Advice):
Watch zone: $288–271
Confirmation: Strong rejection wick + volume delta flip
Stop: Below $267.57
Targets: $367.71 → $457.84 → $513.51
🔻 Risk comes from invalidation below $271.
⚡ Reward stems from recognizing compression before expansion.
#TSLA #VolanX #ElliottWave #LiquiditySweep #WaveAnalysis #FibonacciLevels #SmartMoney #OptionsFlow #TeslaForecast #AITrading #WaverVanir
TESLA: Bullish Continuation & Long Trade
TESLA
- Classic bullish setup
- Our team expects bullish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Long TESLA
Entry Point - 302.63
Stop Loss - 296.98
Take Profit - 312.87
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
TSLA: 308.27Bullish Entries: 312.00/318.00 Stop 316.00 / Target 322.00–325.00
Bearish Entries: 304.00/300.00 Stop 302.00 / Target 296.00–292.00. Note: If the open starts above 312.00, we should wait for it to touch 318.00. Then, 320.00 is the entry for the previous day's bearish trend reversal and the new uptrend.
Unpack the Range, How to buy TeslaHello, I’m The Cafe Trader.
As part of our MAG 7 series, I’m going to show you how to find good pricing on TSLA for your long-term portfolio.
There’s a lot of hype surrounding Tesla right now — and for good reason. From a long-term investment standpoint, the future looks promising. But we still want to enter at the right price.
In my previous article, I gave TSLA a strong buy at $210–$220, and there were multiple opportunities in that range. But that was a few months ago. Let’s take a look at what the charts are telling us today.
⸻
🔲 In the Middle of a Big Range
With a range from $212 to $488, Tesla offers plenty of opportunity for traders — but for investors, it can stir up anxiety.
If you’re holding shares around $330+ and considering selling just to break even, here are three reasons you may want to reconsider:
⸻
1. 🚀 Future Prospects
Tesla is packed with upcoming catalysts:
• Grok AI release
• The highly anticipated Model Q
• Megapack energy storage scaling on an industrial level
These innovations, along with strong brand momentum, could drive the stock 2x, 3x, even 5x over the next few years.
⸻
2. 📈 Trending Up
While some may argue we’re forming a double top, a deeper look at the weekly or monthly chart shows no real signs of weakness. If you’re investing — not just trading — you need that longer-term perspective.
Tesla remains in an uptrend with healthy structure and plenty of strength in the larger timeframes.
⸻
3. 🛡️ Learn to Hedge Your Position
Even if we see 20–30% downside from supply zones, there are ways to protect yourself.
Hedging with options — such as buying puts — can reduce downside risk without selling your shares. If done correctly, you can turn a large drawdown into a smaller loss or even a profit on the hedge.
⚠️ Only do this if you understand how options pricing and time decay work.
⸻
🧠 Passive vs. Aggressive Sellers
Today (July 21st), TSLA tapped into a supply zone and rejected quickly — a sign that sellers are still active around $330, while buyers lack confidence to push through.
🔹 Passive Selling
These are quiet, standing orders — often from large sellers who don’t want to move the market. They sell gradually to avoid spooking buyers.
🔹 Aggressive Selling
This is intentional unloading — where sellers push to exit their position quickly, even at the cost of driving the stock down.
What we saw today looked like passive selling — I’ll cover this in more detail in my short-term TSLA article.
⸻
📊 My Buy Zones for TSLA
Fair Price: $296–$310
• $296 is the top of recent buying liquidity
• $310 is the bottom of the current uptrend
• This is where aggressive buyers may show up if sellers ease off
Good Price: $270–$284
• $284 is a strong support level where reinforced buyers have stepped in
• This has been a hot zone and a likely area for long entries to return
Steal Price: $220–$235
• Not marked on the chart, but this zone is high-demand territory
• Even with bad press or short-term issues, this would be a great long-term value buy
⸻
That's All for TSLA Long Term. Follow and stay tuned for a short term analysis.
@thecafetrader
Tesla Builds Toward Fair Value GapFenzoFx—Tesla (#TSLA) bounced from the ascending trendline and closed yesterday's session at the volume point of interest, the $322.3 mark. This level is above the monthly VWAP, meaning bulls are gaining, and bears are losing money.
That said, we expect the uptick in momentum to resume, targeting $338.9, and if this level is breached, the stock will likely aim to fill the Fair Value Gap at $350.0.
$TSLA ~ Elliott Wave Updates.This whole wave is Wave C(Black) that started when Wave B(Black) was completed. This Wave C(Black) expresses itself in 5 main waves shown in Green. Wave 2(Green) was a Zigzag and a Flat should be expected for 4(Green). Meanwhile, Wave 3(Green) expresses itself in a 5 wave move shown in Black- with Wave 2(Black) being a Zigzag, our 4 was a Flat. This Flat is shown as Blue ABC. When Wave 4(Black) completed, our Wave 5 began which upon completion, would be Wave 3(Green) of the main wave. Wave 2(Red) is a Flat and a Zigzag should be expected after 3(Red).
Go to for more information of the same.
SLA Moderate Bullish Setup – Weekly Play for 08/01 Expiry
## ⚡ TSLA Moderate Bullish Setup – Weekly Play for 08/01 Expiry
🎯 *"Volume confirms it. RSI supports it. Time to strike—or stand by."*
---
### 🔍 Market Intelligence Snapshot:
📊 **Consensus**: Moderately Bullish
📈 **Weekly RSI**: Rising
📉 **Daily RSI**: Still Neutral (momentum building)
📉 **VIX**: Low → Great environment for call buying
📦 **Volume**: Strong institutional activity across models
---
### ✅ Recommended Trade Setup:
**TSLA \$340 CALL (Exp: Aug 1)**
💰 *Entry*: \~\$0.88
📈 *Target*: \$1.38
🛑 *Stop*: \$0.35
📆 *DTE*: 3 Days
🎯 *Entry*: Market Open
⚖️ *Confidence*: 65%
---
### 🔧 Model Blended Strategy Notes:
* Meta & Anthropic: Suggest ATM/ITM (\$327.50–\$330) → safer, higher cost
* Google & xAI: Prefer \$340–\$342.50 for a better risk/reward
* DeepSeek: Targets \$320 but with heavier premium
🧠 *Takeaway*: \$340 offers a balanced shot — affordable, but still responsive to upside flow.
---
### ⚠️ Risk Notes:
* ⏳ Time Decay → Quick exits = better outcomes
* 📰 External news or earnings reactions = watch for sudden volatility
* 🎯 Position size = keep light due to only 3 DTE
---
### 📊 TRADE SNAPSHOT (JSON):
```json
{
"instrument": "TSLA",
"direction": "call",
"strike": 340.0,
"expiry": "2025-08-01",
"confidence": 0.65,
"profit_target": 1.38,
"stop_loss": 0.35,
"size": 1,
"entry_price": 0.88,
"entry_timing": "open",
"signal_publish_time": "2025-07-29 10:16:14 UTC-04:00"
}
```
---
### 🧠 Quick Captions for Social:
* “TSLA bulls waking up? \$340C looks lit for the week 📈🔥”
* “Call volume surging. RSI rising. Low VIX. This \ NASDAQ:TSLA 340C might run 💥”
* “Risk-managed breakout shot — in and out fast 🎯”
$TSLA either one big flag or massive short setting upHello,
Just some browsing, NASDAQ:TSLA hasn’t had any major moves prior to early May - June IMO. This is on my watch for a short swing setup. This is bull flagging but I see a short here. I’m conflicted. I do see the higher low but we are in a pitchfork and this has been consolidating in this $290-$340 area for about a month and half. There’s also a lower high. Just posting for some free dialogue and open ideas. Talk to me. Let me know what you see and think. We aren’t too far from 200EMA and 200SMA. It’s just curling above the 50 as well. Maybe we consolidate for another week or two? A massive move is brewing here I think. I’m talking $100 in a week up or down soon.
WSL
TSLA - LONG Swing Entry Plan NASDAQ:META - LONG Swing Entry Plan
Entry Zone 1: $307.00 – $302.00
→ Open initial position targeting +8% from entry level.
Entry Zone 2: $294.00 – $288.00
→ If price dips further, average down with a second equal-sized entry.
→ New target becomes +8% from the average of Entry 1 and Entry 2.
Edit Zone (Aggressive Demand): $247.00 – $243.00
→ If reached, enter with double the initial size to lower the overall cost basis.
→ Profit target remains +8% from the new average across all three entries.
Risk Management:
Stop Loss:
Risk is capped at 12% below the average entry price (calculated across all executed positions including the Edit Zone).
Position Sizing Approach:
Entry 1: 1x
Entry 2: 1x
Edit Zone: 2x
→ Total exposure: 4x
→ Weighted average determines final TP and SL calculations.
______________________________________
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Tesla (TSLA) | Short-Term Compression, Long-Term ExTesla’s daily chart is coiled, with price currently trading at $316, sitting along the 200-day moving average. This looks like a consolidation phase with significant moves building up.
Price Action Snapshot
TSLA sold off last week, rejecting the $335 resistance level before finding footing around $300. The previous range of $280 and $365 is now tightening.
Immediate resistance sits at $335 with a clean breakout above that zone likely triggering momentum back toward the upper range of $365.
The recent drop does not seem like a capitulation move; it's likely institutional redistribution. Smart money is repositioning, not exiting.
Market Is Focused on the Wrong Data
Tesla’s Q2 earnings were objectively weak. Revenue fell 12%, deliveries dropped, and operating margins got clipped.
But this correction isn't all about fundamentals. It is about the market adjusting to a company evolving beyond traditional valuation models.
While most investors are trying to value Tesla like a car company, it’s spending this entire phase retooling itself into an AI and autonomy-first enterprise. That transition doesn't show up in EPS yet (but it will).
The Bigger Picture is Being Missed
The robotaxi rollout in Austin is live. Expansion into California, Phoenix, and Florida is on the roadmap.
Tesla is building a vertically integrated, owner-driven ride-hailing model that could eventually bypass both Uber and legacy OEMs entirely.
Optimus is no longer a lab prototype—it’s moving toward scalable production by 2026.
If Tesla even partially succeeds in general-purpose robotics, it will unlock a Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) that dwarfs the current EV narrative .
Daily Technical Outlook
We’re currently in a bullish compression, with higher lows forming against the resistance area of $365. If $280 holds and the price continues to grind within this wedge, it sets up a volatility breakout scenario.
The breakout level to watch is $335. A daily close above that reopens $365. And beyond that, the resistance level is at $426.
My View
Tesla is compressing, both in price and narrative.
The long game is quietly coming into focus, where the risk/reward skews asymmetrically in favor of the upside.
This daily compression won’t last forever, and when it resolves, the move will likely be outsized.
A Strategic Long Opportunity Amid VolatilityCurrent Price: $316.06
Direction: LONG
Targets:
- T1 = $324.00
- T2 = $328.50
Stop Levels:
- S1 = $312.50
- S2 = $308.00
**Wisdom of Professional Traders:**
This analysis synthesizes insights from thousands of professional traders and market experts, leveraging collective intelligence to identify high-probability trade setups. The wisdom of crowds principle suggests that aggregated market perspectives from experienced professionals often outperform individual forecasts, reducing cognitive biases and highlighting consensus opportunities in Tesla.
**Key Insights:**
Tesla’s stock presents both short-term risks and long-term upside opportunities. Despite recent earnings misses and margin compression, its pivot into AI and robotics offers significant growth opportunities. Upside resistance zones near $325-$330 create favorable price targets, while support levels at $307-$310 suggest strong buying interest. This environment could favor a long trading strategy, provided disciplined risk management is maintained.
**Recent Performance:**
Tesla recently experienced notable sell-offs following disappointing earnings, attributed to compressed margins and weaker EV demand. However, the stock rebounded 3.5% from last week’s lows, signaling resilience amid uncertainty. Year-to-date, Tesla remains one of the top-performing stocks with a 54% price increase, reflecting strong underlying investor confidence in its long-term story.
**Expert Analysis:**
Market experts are divided on Tesla’s trajectory. Near-term fundamentals appear challenging with declining revenue (-12% YoY) and price cuts impacting profitability. However, bullish projections from analysts such as Kathy Wood highlight Tesla’s potential for disruptive innovation in AI and robotics. Its ambitious initiatives like robo-taxi deployment add speculative appeal but also introduce scaling and regulatory risks.
**News Impact:**
Tesla’s upcoming robo-taxi launch in San Francisco is poised to impact market sentiment significantly. While safety drivers will be required during the initial rollout, scalability and regulatory challenges could limit the project’s immediate impact. Meanwhile, recent disappointing earnings results may weigh on sentiment in the short term while providing an opportunity for potential retrishments off support levels.
**Trading Recommendation:**
Given the current setup, Tesla appears poised for long-term growth, with upside resistance levels suggesting a viable rally opportunity. Investors should consider taking a bullish position while maintaining stops near key support zones to mitigate downside risks. This balanced approach aligns well with Tesla’s speculative appeal and broader investor sentiment.
$TSLA Bullish WedgeWeekly Chart Consolidation Pattern: TSLA has formed a clear triangle consolidation pattern after the significant pullback from its 2025 highs around $440. Price is currently testing the upper boundary of this triangle at $329.65, suggesting potential for a breakout.
Key Support Levels Holding: The stock has established strong support at $273.38, which has been tested multiple times and held firmly. This creates a solid foundation for a bullish move.
Momentum Shift: TSLA recently breaking above its descending trendline resistance, indicating a shift in short-term momentum from bearish to bullish.
Higher Lows: On both daily and weekly charts, TSLA has been forming higher lows since April 2025, suggesting accumulation and strengthening bullish sentiment.
Fundamental Catalysts
Several fundamental factors support a bullish outlook:
Robotaxi Progress: Recent news confirms TSLA received a Texas Robotaxi permit (August 9th), allowing it to launch a ride-hailing service with safety drivers, competing directly with Uber and Lyft in the autonomous vehicle space.
Q2 Earnings Beat: The July 23rd earnings report showed TSLA beating expectations with EPS of $0.40 (14.29% above estimates) and revenue of $22.5B (slightly above estimates), demonstrating the company's resilience despite challenging market conditions.
Production Plans on Track: During the earnings call, Tesla confirmed "plans for new vehicles that will launch in 2025 remain on track, including initial production of a more affordable model in 1H25." This addresses a key market concern about Tesla's product roadmap.
Strong Analyst Support: Despite mixed ratings, several prominent analysts remain highly bullish, with Wedbush maintaining a $500 price target (approximately 52% upside from current levels). RBC Capital also raised their price target from $319 to $325 recently.
AI and Technology Leadership
TSLA's AI initiatives offer significant upside potential:
FSD Progress: Elon Musk stated during the earnings call that "unsupervised FSD likely to be available for personal use by end of year," which could be a major competitive advantage.
Samsung Partnership: The company secured a $16.5 billion chip deal with Samsung for next-gen AI chips, positioning Tesla for continued leadership in autonomous driving technology.
Supply Chain Resilience: Tesla is "localizing supply chains to mitigate geopolitical risk," making it the only automaker sourcing batteries at scale through non-Chinese routes, according to Piper Sandler.
Price Action and Potential Targets
The recent price action suggests TSLA is preparing for a potential upward move:
Immediate Resistance: The $340.24 level shown on your chart represents the first significant resistance. A decisive break above this level could trigger a run toward the $400 psychological level.
Intermediate Target: If momentum continues, the next target would be a retest of the 2025 high near $440.
Current Price Action: The stock has recently crossed above the descending trendline that had been in place since January 2025, which is typically a bullish signal.
Risks to Monitor
While maintaining a bullish bias, it's important to acknowledge potential risks:
AI Team Changes: Recent news indicates Tesla scrapped its Dojo Supercomputer AI team, which could impact some AI development initiatives.
Competition: Chinese EV makers and traditional automakers are intensifying efforts in both EV and autonomous driving spaces.
Technical Support: The $275-280 zone remains critical - a break below could invalidate the bullish thesis.
In conclusion, TSLA's technical setup across multiple timeframes, combined with positive fundamental developments in robotaxi, AI initiatives, and upcoming product launches, creates a compelling bullish case for the stock in the near to medium term. The stock appears positioned for a potential upside move as it tests key technical resistance levels with strong support established below current prices.