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Crude Oil Futures (Mar 2033)

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Oil Prices - USA possibly invading Venezuela?What Would Happen to Oil Prices if the U.S. Invaded Venezuela?: Whenever geopolitical tensions rise, oil markets react fast, often faster than the facts on the ground. Let's cover some ideas: 1)Venezuela Is Not the World’s Biggest Oil Producer: A common assumption is that any major conflict involving Venezuela must send oil prices soaring because of its oil reserves. But that assumption is flawed. While Venezuela holds the largest proven oil reserves in the world, it is not one of the top producers today. The real production heavyweights are: -United States -Saudi Arabia -Russia Venezuela’s output has collapsed over the past decade due to sanctions, underinvestment, and infrastructure decay. In practical terms, the global oil system is already operating with Venezuelan supply largely sidelined. This means that from a pure supply perspective, the world can absorb Venezuelan disruption far more easily than many believe. To note, Venezuela’s oil is extremely hard to process because most of it is extra-heavy crude (very thick, high in sulfur and metals, and unable to flow or be refined without major treatment). It must be diluted or heated just to transport, and only specialized refineries can handle it. This makes production expensive and is why Venezuelan oil usually sells at a large discount to global benchmarks. 2)Why Prices could still Spike (at Least at First): A U.S. invasion would introduce: -Extreme geopolitical uncertainty -Fear of wider regional instability -Possible sanctions escalation and shipping disruptions -Potential responses from other major powers 3)The $60 Question: U.S. Oil Companies’ Break-Even Point: For many U.S. shale producers, the break-even price for sustainable profitability sits around: $55–$65 per barrel. Below this price range: -Drilling activity slows -Capital investment weakens -Production growth stalls Above this range: -Shale becomes highly profitable -U.S. production expands quickly -Energy companies’ earnings surge Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Stock prices, valuations, and performance metrics are subject to change and may be outdated. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. The information presented may contain inaccuracies and should not be solely relied upon for financial decisions. I am not personally liable for your own losses; this is not financial advice.
NYMEX:CL1!
by bossout10
2
Selling Options while WTI Moves within a Narrow BandNYMEX: WTI Crude Oil Options ( NYMEX:CL1! $LO) Last Friday, Oil prices fell by more than $1 a barrel. Investors weighed a looming global supply glut and a reduced war risk premium, amid hopes of a Ukraine peace deal ahead of talks between the presidents of the United States and Ukraine. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $1.05 or 1.8% to $57.30. Brent crude futures fell $1.03 or 1.65% to $61.21. WTI and Brent are down 20% and 18% respectively on the year, as rising crude output caused concerns of an oil glut heading into next year. In the December “Short-Term Energy Outlook” (STEO) report, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects global oil inventories to rise through 2026, putting downward pressure on oil prices in the coming months. EIA forecasts the Brent crude oil price to fall to an average of $55 per barrel in 1Q26 and remain near that price for the rest of next year. Separately, the Paris-based IEA forecasts the 2026 global oil supply to exceed demand by 3.84 million barrels per day, according to figures from its December oil market report. Investors are watching for developments in the Russia-Ukraine peace process and the possible impact on future oil prices, as a peace agreement could lead to the removal of international sanctions against Russia’s oil export. Commitment of Traders shows no direction The CFTC Commitments of Traders report (COT) shows that as of December 16th, total Open Interest (OI) for NYMEX WTI Futures is 1,916,438 contracts. • “Managed Money” (i.e., hedge funds) own 144,673 in Long, 144,599 in Short, and 362,954 contracts in Spreading. • The long-short ratio of 1:1 shows that “Smart Money” has no clues which direction the oil prices will go next. • “Nonreportable Positions” (i.e., retail traders) owns 75,888 in long and 58,212 contracts in short. The long-short ratio of 1.3:1 is hardly a bullish sentiment. The COT report is an important leading indicator. Currently, the market is not leaning towards one direction or another. This implies that oil prices could be moving sideways. Trade Setup with WTI Options In my opinion, oil prices could be trading within a narrow band between $50 and $65 for the most part of 2026. Excessive supply puts downward pressure, but geopolitical risks keep oil prices from falling too far. Traders who share this view could explore selling WTI options on futures to earn income. Each WTI Options contract (LO) has a notional value of 1 WTI futures contract (CL), which contains 1,000 barrels of crude oil. We could consider selling Out-of-the-Money (OTM) call options and put options on February, March, and June 2026 contracts. Here is a trade setup for illustration only: • On December 29th, the Feb-2026 WTI futures contract (CLG6) is quoting at $57.4 per barrel. The trading volume and OI of CLG6 stood at 166,669 and 303,776 respectively on December 26th, the most recent trading day. • An OTM CALL option with a $60 strike price is quoting at 0.61. To sell 1 call, a trader will receive $610 (= 0.61 x 1,000 barrels) in option premium. • The $55-PUT is quoting at 0.72. To sell 1 put, a trader will receive $720. • Mar-2026 (CLH6) is quoting at $57.23. CLH6has trade volume of 70,256 and OI of 250,745 contracts on December 26th. • The $65-CALL is quoting at 0.53. To sell 1 call, a trader will receive $530. • The $50-PUT is quoting at 0.58. To sell 1 put, a trader will receive $580. • Jun-2026 (CLM6) is quoting at $57.40. It has trade volume of 26,414 and OI of 164,510 contracts on December 26th. • The $70-CALL is quoting at 0.81. To sell 1 call, a trader will receive $810. • The $45-PUT is quoting at 0.87. To sell 1 put, a trader will receive $870. To sell options contracts, the trader is required to deposit a performance margin upfront. Total margins come to $22,050 for the above six options, according to CME requirements as of December 29th. On the other hand, the trader will receive premium from option buyers. Total premiums come to $4,120. If none of these options get exercised, this will be the maximum income the trade generated. If large price moves occur, some or all of these options could get exercised. The risk of selling options is a potentially unlimited liability when price moves get extreme. Traders could limit such exposure by entering offsetting buy orders ahead of the contract expiration. The above trades could be categorized as Short Strangle Options Strategies. If any of the six legs begin losing money, traders could buy back the same option strike at market prices, and stop the losses from growing larger. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
NYMEX:CL1!
by JimHuangChicago
Harmonic BAT or CRAB formation in CRUDEOIL for 5000 or lowerTF: 60 Minutes CMP: 5156 I have published an analysis based on Pitchfork set up on Crude and you can read about in the link given below. Here, I am posting the view based on Harmonic Pattern formation. Since it has closed and sustained below the recent swing low of 5170, two levels have opened up on the downside based on Harmonic BAT and Crab Patterns. They are 5050 and 4950 respectively. I have marked both the patterns in different colors here in this chart for better understanding. Also, as per P&F charting method, the downside levels are open for 4750 and 4450; while 4450 being a distant level, 4750 appears to be within reach and also a cluster zone Chart on Pitchfork tool: Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI registered Analyst and this is not a trading advise. Views are personal and for educational purpose only. Please consult your Financial Advisor for any investment decisions. Please consider my views only to get a different perspective (FOR or AGAINST your views). Please don't trade FNO based on my views. If you like my analysis and learnt something from it, please give a BOOST. Feel free to express your thoughts and questions in the comments section.
MCX:CRUDEOIL1!Short
by Murthy_Santhosh
Crude Oil Rally After Christmas?For quite a bit we have had Bearish momentum going on CL! This could change however due to Geopolitical risk for premium expansion, inventory tightness and seasonal demand etc. Funds are also not heavily invested in oil so far, so if we do gain headlines in the coming months we could see a spike on Crude Oil. When it comes to Technical analysis we can quite see that the support area (Blue) is being quite respected so far - If we see a break above resistance (line in black) we could potentially see a short term rally coming in on CL! NYMEX:CL1!
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by adwan_capital
1
CRUDEOIL1! - Pitchfork levels CMP: 5180 TF: Multiple On hourly TF, price is getting rejected at the supply zone (5280-5320) and this fall could potentially move a lot lower if it fails to move above/beyond 3530 levels. The immediate supports are the midpoint of the pitchfork line at 5130 and the previous consolidation zone at 5100 On 2 hr TF, price is getting resisted at the 2 std deviation on the upper range Bullishness can be expected only when it closes above this trendline at the top. On 4 Hr TF, it is very evident that the price is getting rejected/resisted at the Pitchfork midpoint. It was acting as a polarity zone (previous support turning resistance and vice versa) As per the set up, 5350-5450 is the resistance, If the price sustains above this level, we can expect 5800+ On the downside, 4850 is the next zone to look for in the coming days. Finally, the USOIL had broken the previous swing lows (Oct and April lows of 55.96 and 55.15 respectively) Whereas, the Crudeoil (INR) hasn't broken the lows yet. One could attribute this to USDINR arbitrage, but if this is a complex correction, we should be expecting those lows to be tested first Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI registered Analyst and this is not a trading advise. Views are personal and for educational purpose only. Please consult your Financial Advisor for any investment decisions. Please consider my views only to get a different perspective (FOR or AGAINST your views). Please don't trade FNO based on my views. If you like my analysis and learnt something from it, please give a BOOST. Feel free to express your thoughts and questions in the comments section.
MCX:CRUDEOIL1!
by Murthy_Santhosh
2
Light Sweet Crude Oil pressing major support — oversold bounce Current Price: $56.74 Direction: LONG Confidence Level: 60% (Price is sitting on a heavily referenced support zone, downside momentum is stalling, and trader discussion is increasingly focused on rebound scenarios despite a weak broader trend) Targets: - T1 = $58.30 - T2 = $60.00 Stop Levels: - S1 = $55.10 - S2 = $53.80 **Wisdom of Professional Traders:** This analysis blends insights from the collective wisdom of professional traders and active market participants tracking Light Sweet Crude Oil. When I zoom out and look at what many traders are saying together, the message is consistent: oil is deeply oversold and sitting at a price zone that has repeatedly triggered rebounds in the past. Markets rarely move in straight lines, and crowd sentiment often shifts right before short-term turning points. Several traders emphasized that while the larger trend has been heavy, the current price area near $55–$56 has historically attracted buyers. This type of consensus doesn’t guarantee a rally, but it does tilt the risk-reward balance toward a tactical long rather than chasing downside at already depressed levels. **Key Insights:** Here’s what’s driving this setup. The most frequently mentioned level across trader commentary is the $55–$56 support band. Price is hovering directly above it, and momentum indicators that traders rely on widely are stretched to the downside. When selling pressure slows at a known floor, even modest buying can produce sharp snapback moves. Another thing that stands out is how trader language has shifted. Instead of aggressively pushing downside targets, more traders are saying they’re “watching for confirmation” or “waiting for a bounce.” That change in tone matters. On the social side, the limited but high-conviction X activity leans bullish, focusing on oversold conditions and the asymmetric upside if $55 continues to hold. **Recent Performance:** Light Sweet Crude Oil has been hit hard over recent months, dropping more than 20% year-to-date and falling nearly 3% in the last 24 hours alone. That decline pushed price into the mid-$56 range, an area that has acted as a floor multiple times. Volume remains solid, which tells me participation is still strong and this move hasn’t happened in a vacuum. **Expert Analysis:** Several professional traders pointed out that this is not a structural trend reversal call, but a tactical trade location. Repeated references to resistance near $58 and the psychological $60 level make them the most realistic upside magnets for this week if a rebound unfolds. At the same time, traders were clear that a decisive break below $55 would invalidate the long thesis quickly, which is why tight stops are key. What I’m personally watching is whether price can reclaim the $57.50–$58 zone. If that happens, short covering and momentum buying often accelerate faster than many expect. **News Impact:** Recent headlines around rising U.S. crude inventories weighed on price, but that pressure is already reflected in the current level. Meanwhile, ongoing OPEC+ rhetoric and geopolitical background risks continue to act as a volatility catalyst. At these prices, even a slightly supportive headline can spark a relief move higher. **Trading Recommendation:** Putting it all together, I’m taking a LONG stance for a short-term rebound play. This is a support-based trade, not a long-term bet. I favor entries above $55 with disciplined risk control, targeting $58.30 first and potentially $60 if momentum builds this week. Position sizing should stay moderate given the broader downtrend, but the risk-to-reward here is attractive.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by CrowdWisdomTrading
CRUDE OIL: No-Bias Trading Oil option traders are bracing for increased volatility by buying synthetic Straddles: Long OTM Call + Short Future. Being market-neutral, it’s a pure volatility play: it earns on price action in either direction. Once it hits the profit target, owner can close it or manage This isn't a unique story. Such portfolios frequently appear in the market when favorable situations arise, including those that are 'graphically convenient' (look closely at the chart and answer the question: will the price linger at this level for long? Probably not, it'll move somewhere). Options allow you to profit from these chart setups without worrying about the direction of the price move. Cool, right? Bottom line: this post is primarily educational, rather than sentiment-revealing. However, we also shouldn't ignore such 'market-neutral portfolios' in our analysis.▶️ If the professional players aren't sure where the market is headed next, maybe we shouldn't overstate our own humble abilities either.
NYMEX:CLM2026Education
by ClashChartsTeam
CRUDE OIL (CL) PREDICTIONCRUDE OIL (CL) PREDICTION 📊 Market Sentiment Crude oil prices had been trending lower following signs of de-escalation in the Israel–Palestine conflict, easing tensions with Iran, and emerging peace signals from the Russia–Ukraine front. However, recent statements from Trump and the possibility of a U.S. military action against Venezuela have shifted sentiment back to the upside. Venezuela holds approximately 18% of the world’s proven oil reserves and ranks as the 12th largest oil producer globally. Any potential conflict involving the U.S. could significantly disrupt supply expectations, acting as a strong bullish catalyst for oil prices. 📈 Technical Analysis CL swept monthly liquidity around the $55 level and has since shifted into a bullish structure on the daily timeframe. In my view, this move indicates that price has gathered sufficient energy for either continuation higher or a controlled retracement before the next bullish leg. 📌 Prediction – Game Plan I entered a long position at 56.24$. 🎯 TP1: 57.70$ I will take partial profits here and move the remaining position to breakeven. 🎯 TP2: 58.90$ 🛑 Stop Loss: Daily close below 55.40$ 💬 For deeper sentiment and strategy insights, subscribe to my Substack free access available. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before trading or investing.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by UA_CAPITAL
1
Crude Oil – Sell around 58.90, target 57.00-56.00Crude Oil Market Analysis: The recommended strategy for today is to sell crude oil. Recent crude oil price fluctuations have been relatively small, and the fluctuations are mostly within a consolidation phase. The recommended strategy is to sell, as chasing this range-bound market is not advisable. Wait for a rebound to a higher point before considering selling. Today, pay attention to the levels around 58.90 and 59.50. Fundamental Analysis: These past few days have been a holiday, with few major data releases. However, the escalating US-Venezuela relations and the worsening Russia-Ukraine situation are providing short-term geopolitical support, significantly benefiting gold prices. Trading Recommendation: Crude Oil – Sell around 58.90, target 57.00-56.00
NYMEX:CL1!
by FlyingTowardsWealth
1
Crude Oil – Sell around 59.20, target 56.00-55.00Crude Oil Market Analysis: Crude oil has started a slight rebound, but it hasn't broken through the 55 level effectively. Today's strategy remains to sell on rallies and be bearish. Continue selling on rallies. Resistance for crude oil is around 59.20; consider selling near that level. If crude oil breaks above 59, it indicates a return to a consolidation phase. The recent escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is supporting buying opportunities in crude oil. Fundamental Analysis: The Russia-Ukraine conflict shows signs of escalation again, providing some support for gold. Pay attention to the holiday situation in the next few days. Trading Recommendation: Crude Oil – Sell around 59.20, target 56.00-55.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by FlyingTowardsWealth
Short Selling + Rocket Booster Strategy In 3 StepsFirst off let me start by saying happy new year .. One famous streamer is visiting Africa, which is my home continent I am so surprised that someone from a developed world would visit this side of the world am truly humbled by this gesture despite the famous roars its nice to visit the other side of the world this is something i have been following. Now i have also been following the crude oil price NYMEX:CL1! do you remember that last week i told you that i am learning something called swing trading? So from now on i wont be able to trade often or post often.. but when i do i am sure these type of trades will be very much high quality trades.. So the system is very simple it has 3 steps its called the rocket booster strategy : 1-The price has to be below the 50 ema 2-The price has to be below the 200 ema 3-The price should swing or gap down.. after a correction The way of the swing is very important for you to learn more about Because you can see it on the stochastic indicator Rocket boost this content to learn more. Disclaimer:Trading is risky please learn more about risk management and profit taking strategies. Also feel free to to use a simulation trading account before you trade with real money.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by lubosi
Crude Oil Futures Closing the GAP this Week?📊 CRUDE OIL FUTURES (FEB 2026) TECHNICAL ANALYSIS "The goal of a successful trader is to make the best trades. Money is secondary." — Alexander Elder The Crude Oil Futures (CLG2026) chart on the 1-hour timeframe shows a significant bearish breakdown as we head into late December 2025. Sellers have taken control after a period of distribution near the recent highs. 📉 CURRENT PRICE ACTION Ticker: CLG2026 (Crude Oil Feb '26) Price: 56.93 (+0.05% in the current session) Trend: The market has experienced a sharp "flush" from the 58.40 level, breaking through multiple support zones in a single high-momentum move. 🚀 CRITICAL LEVELS TO WATCH UPWARD RESISTANCE Entry Zone: 58.40 (This was the previous distribution peak and acts as significant resistance on any bounce). Previous Support: 57.80 (The blue line now acts as a technical "ceiling" for short-term recovery). DOWNWARD SUPPORT Market Closing Price: 56.94 (Current area of consolidation following the breakdown). Target Gap: 56.53 – 56.60 (The chart indicates an "Open Gap" that hasn't been filled yet; price is gravitating toward this zone). 📈 MOMENTUM AND PATTERNS Distribution Box: The yellow box near the top shows the price struggling to move higher before the aggressive sell-off. Breakout Move: A large yellow rectangle highlights the high-velocity downward move that invalidated the previous bullish structure. Gap Theory: The orange arrow points directly to the lower gap, suggesting a high probability that the price will hit the 56.50 range before finding new buyers. 🔍 TRADING STRATEGY Bearish Bias: The overall short-term outlook is bearish as long as the price remains below 57.80. Gap Fill Play: Traders are likely watching for a move into the 56.60 "Gap" zone to look for potential "exhaustion" or reversal signs. Wait for Rejection: If the market rallies back to 57.14, look for rejection candles to confirm the downtrend's continuation. #CrudeOil #OilTrading #FuturesTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #Commodities #CLG2026 #WTI #TradingStrategy #MarketUpdate
NYMEX:CLG2026Short
by TheMotivationalProfessor
Crude Oil MCX Future - Intraday Analysis - 29 Dec., 2025MCX:CRUDEOIL1! Crude Oil MCX Futures — Chart Pathik Intraday Levels for 29-Dec-2025 (If these levels add value to your trades, a quick boost or comment goes a long way in supporting this free content and keeping our trading community thriving!) Crude Oil Futures are trading near 5,180 after a sharp, vertical selloff from the 5,260–5,300 zone, now stabilising exactly at the zero line of 5,182, which is the key intraday pivot between a relief bounce and further downside. ​ Bullish Structure Counter-trend longs activate only once price reclaims and sustains above the Long Exit at 5,214 and then the Short Entry / Add Long Pos. band around 5,227–5,244. ​ Stronger trend-follow longs come above the Long Entry at 5,261 with upside targets at 5,269 (Long Target 1) and 5,322 (Long Target 2 / extended move). ​ Control: Any early dip-buying near 5,180 should keep stops tight just below recent lows, as the primary structure remains bearish until 5,214–5,244 is decisively reclaimed. ​ Bearish Structure Shorts remain preferred while price trades below 5,214 and especially on failed bounces into 5,214–5,227 that roll back under the zero line at 5,182. ​ Downside targets: 5,095 (Short Target 1 / first profit zone) and 5,042 (Short Target 2 / extended downside if selling pressure resumes). ​ Control: Bears should manage risk if price begins to form higher lows above 5,182 and closes above 5,214, which would signal exhaustion of the current leg. ​ Neutral Zone 5,182 is today’s inflection—expect choppy, stop-hunting price action while crude oscillates between roughly 5,178 and 5,214 without decisive 15‑minute closes beyond either side. ​ Every setup is designed for structure, plan, and logic—let the chart work for you, not your emotions. Boost or comment if these levels help your preparation—help Chart Pathik keep delivering quality analysis to more intraday traders!
MCX:CRUDEOIL1!
by ChartPathik
1
Crude Oil Futures (CL) – Bullish Continuation with Technical PauThe chart shows a well-defined bullish structure, with higher highs and higher lows following a strong upward impulse from the support zone. Price is currently in a short consolidation phase, holding above the dynamic support (moving average) and remaining within an ascending channel. This pause suggests supply absorption rather than weakness, favoring a continuation to the upside as long as key support levels hold. The overall bias remains BUY-oriented.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by raydiaz26